Ruminations - 25sep2011

George Rebane

Some thoughts on violence and the blind.

Harvard psychologist Professor Steven Pinker asks, “Why has violence declined so dramatically for so long? Is it because violence has literally been bred out of us, leaving us more peaceful by nature?”  In his recent book (as reported in the 24sep11 WSJ, ‘Violence Vanquished’) Pinker cites the history of human violence declining over the ages, and dropping at an astounding rate during the era after WW2, which he calls the “Long Peace” that was succeeded by the “New Peace” after the collapse of Soviet communism.

He attributes this progress toward non-violence to three primary factors – growth of governments, growth of commerce, and cosmopolitanism.  The last is a cultural factor abetted by improved education and facile communication of ideas.

What I find missing in his broad analysis is that he does not seem to understand the role of technology in the suppression of violence.  Most violence, ranging from states to serfs, was motivated by getting each other’s ‘stuff’.  And in olden days stuff was stored in widely distributed repositories that were guarded by its owners.  To get stuff away from its owners, one had to marshal and apply considerable force that left behind lots of bodies and bad blood to motivate the next forays.

Starting during the Industrial Revolution when nation-states and corporations became organized and capital intensive, there arose more and more opportunities to get the other guy’s stuff through outright fraud and other dodgy lawyer-intensive activities.  'Violence' to get stuff was done contractually and to your bank accounts with the attendant benefit of a greatly diminished body count.  Today governments, corporations, and even sole practitioners have practically legitimized such wealth transfers, and elevated them to the celebrated impresario level.  The good professor should redo his analysis, factoring in the effect of these more civilized ways of transferring wealth from its generators and owners to less deserving pockets.

Has our missile early warning system – the ever attentive eyes of nuclear defense – gone blind?  Moreover, the announcement of this apparent malady has attracted the attention of neither politician nor medal-bedecked military brass, and it has been completely overlooked by our ever-vigilant journalists.  A well tracked 6.5 ton research satellite in a decaying orbit streaked to its much anticipated fiery death somewhere over the North Pacific yesterday.  And when asked, NASA said it really couldn’t tell us where its debris field was located.

The US military has emplaced and operated a critical part of the nation’s defense shield – a multi-satellite, ballistic missile detection and tracking system (remember Star Wars?).  This is a 24/7/365 system that sends its data to NORAD’s nerve center under Cheyenne Mountain in Colorado (now also at Peterson AFB in Colorado Springs).  Its thermal detectors constantly track literally all heat events on earth and in its atmosphere, which have expanded to include all air traffic over North America since 9/11.  Fortunately, from meteor tracks to refinery fires, they have all been false alarms, and have been quickly identified as such.

My point here is that this early warning system can rapidly detect and pinpoint the location/dynamics of such heat events, whether they be the launch stage of a missile exiting its silo, or of MIRVed warheads buried in a cloud of decoys re-entering the atmosphere.  But yesterday, they couldn’t see and track 6.5 tons of predictable space junk searing through the atmosphere, trailing bright thermal plumes against the background of a cold ocean, and then tell us exactly where the major pieces would splash down.  Or did the mavens at NASA forget to call NORAD and just ask?

Comments

[Russ Steele]

I would vote for the NASA Maven failing to ask the question, but then there is this:

DoDʼs Joint Space Operations Center at Vandenberg AFB, CA, has assessed that NASAʼs Upper Atmosphere Research Satellite reentered the atmosphere sometime between 0323 and 0509 GMT on 24 September. During this period the satellite passed over Canada, the African continent, and the Pacific, Atlantic and Indian Oceans. The mid-point of that groundtrack and a possible reentry location is 31 N latitude and 219 E longitude (green circle marker on this map). http://www.nasa.gov/pdf/591662main_UARS%20Map.pdf

However, as George points out the experts are in Cheyenne Mountain, unless the Obama administration have closed the doors and are no longer using our IR satellites to track reentering vehicles.

[George Rebane]

Thanks for the link Russ. And as you point out, NASA was able to assign time of re-entry into a 1:46 hr time window - that is astounding. NORAD would give you the reentry plume(s) in a time-coordinate history that measures to a small (classified) fraction of a second, with no caveats about a "possible reentry location".

[Todd Juvinall]

Diminished of violence? I guess I am a skeptic about that view. In America we have 2.5 million violent folks in the clink. That may have something to do with it if the stats actually prove the diminution. I think humans are actually more violent. WW1, WW2, Korea, Vietnam, Angola,Rwanda, Cambodia, Somalia, Burma, Tibet the scourge of dictators keeping their citizens cowed by the threat of personal harm.. I am simply referring to facts I see and read. Humans have a underlying aggressiveness which I still don't understand.

[Paul Emery]

The US has 25% of the worlds prison population. That means we either have an epidemic of violence or send a lot of people to jail for non violent crimes such as enforcement of our silly drug laws or victim less crimes. Incarceration is after all a huge government program that should give any true conservative the shivers.

[George Rebane]

Agreed PaulE.
http://rebaneruminations.typepad.com/rebanes_ruminations/2008/12/off-the-fence-about-drugs.html

[Todd Juvinall]

I mostly agree with PaulE on his last post except for one comment. Many thousands of people are murdered every year by those peaceful drug pushers.

[Ben Emery]

A majority of prisoners are non violent offenders.

We house more inmates than China in both ratio/ total and their population has a billion more people than the US. Our draconian war on drugs along with their private prison industry counterpart are insane.
Here is a graph from the most advanced nations.
http://filipspagnoli.files.wordpress.com/2008/08/incarceration-rates-in-oecd-countries.jpg

Here is an article that is a dozen years old but gives a very thorough look at the issue of government, big business, drug laws, and private prisons. This complex has accelerated even more since this article was written. It has been awhile, maybe I will read it again myself.
http://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/1998/12/the-prison-industrial-complex/4669/

[bill tozer]

In a related news blurp about declining violence this morning, a Glendale High School English teacher is receiving quite a bit of flak for suggesting Capote's "In Cold Blood" be added to the advance placement reading list. Seems the Council of School Principals and the PTA have voiced their opposition to this classic non fiction novel. Meanwhile, violence at Dodger Stadium has been escalating for several years and the 49ers as well as other sports franchises are ready to ban all post game tailgate parties.

[Anna Haynes]

I hope this will be addressed at Emery v. Rebane:

Clinton: ‘There Is Not A Single Solitary Example’ Of A Country That Has Succeeded With A Tea Party Philosophy

(& apologies if it's old news, or already refuted (if so, what country?))

[Todd Juvinall]

In India it was the Tea Party revolt against the English. In Kenya it was the Mau Mau/Coffee Bean revolt.

[Russ Steele]

Quite frankly, I am more interested in a list of countries that have failed due to the Tea Party Patriot philosophy of:
• Fiscal Responsibility,
• Limited Government,
• Free Markets,and
• A government that respects and answers to it's people.

[George Rebane]

If I may pile on, I'm interested to know of any country besides the US that has ever practiced the Tea Party principles, no matter if it succeeded or failed.

[Greg Goodknight]

The Great Republic of Rough & Ready is but one example.