Rebane's Ruminations

To Benefit Our Community

George Rebane

[This is the transcript of my regular KVMR commentary which will enjoy a delayed airing on Monday 13 February 2012 due to the station’s winter fund raising scheduled for this week.]

Regular listeners to these commentaries will recognize a different thrust and tone in my subject matter.  Tonight I will urge you to support two initiatives that will benefit our community.  One of the them may be subject to some contention, the other should be free of even that.  An unusual fare for these little bi-weekly diatribes.

Singularity Signposts – Telemedicine on the slow track

George Rebane

The European Space Agency is working on a medical AI called CAMDASS (Computer Assisted Medical Diagnosis and Surgery System).  It has a unique augmented reality user interface (UI) that would allow future astronauts to diagnose and treat complex medical cases when they are in space, and especially when they are at distances that prevent facile realtime communication with Earth.  ‘Augmented reality promises astronauts instant medical knowhow’ describes the approach and status of the program.

When we examine the state of such technology developments in medicine, the immediate question that comes to mind is ‘why can’t similar programs be in the works to provide medical expertise to lay caregivers here on Earth?’  And if you happen to be knowledgeable in the progress of AI and the relevant UI technologies, then the question is ‘why was such capability not available to us at the launch of the WWW?’

Such systems could have been made available in literally thousands of local clinics all over the world, most certainly in homes at the retail level in developed countries.  Over these years, the functionality of these systems could have been delivered online or through offline client-based implementations.  These systems could save literally billions of dollars in medical costs annually by supporting a more distributed, rapid, and broad-based delivery of medical knowledge and intervention procedures applied by people with limited, little, or no medical training.

And here I may have answered my own questions.  The billions going into established pockets in the medical industry and their legal beagles would then go elsewhere.  And that’s a no-no-no.  At this point the soft-hearted and soft-headed will leap in and start telling us that ‘a lay or lesser person who is not a physician can not be allowed to assume such heavy responsibility in a possible life/death matter, besides it would be the equivalent of practicing medicine without a license.’

My response to all that warbling and flutter is ‘Stuff and nonsense!’ (A more civil retort than a direct ‘Bullshit!’)  The systems could be designed for various types of medical incidents, levels of operator expertise, and connectivity to online professionals.  The main thing is that the use of such low cost intervention would seriously cut the money gusher to the healthcare industry at almost no increase to patient risk.  We must remember that hospitals kill about 100,000 patients a year through accidents, ineptness, and incompetence, and many physicians are woefully out of date.  Also, with governments mangling the healthcare markets, fewer people are studying to become poorly paid healthcare workers.

Again, all that is required is that our tort code be revised, and the medical unions defanged – a no small undertaking.  The CAMDASS technology is out there to make the delivery of such medical care available, and the entrepreneurial resources are cocked and ready to launch the needed enterprises to develop, market, and maintain these systems.  Such systems would totally restructure the delivery of healthcare at all levels.  But in order to hang on to the billions and the bureaucrats, today Big Brother says, ‘No!’

Singularity Signposts – Nano Quadrotors

George Rebane

The advances in robotics, miniaturization, and control are getting scary.  RR has been tracking such developments in these pre-Singularity years.  Take a look at this video of small quadrotor helicopters.  These craft can be controlled manually or by a computer that can fly them individually or in large formations.  And then consider their use in surveillance, interdiction, and other ‘security’ functions.  And then think of what militaries and governments can do with these.  And then think of what an autonomous AI can do with fleets of such craft.

Also consider their use as full-size personal and commercial transport vehicles.  The cockpit controls (‘user interface’) in these vehicles can be designed so as to allow a totally naïve individual, who hasn’t even flown a kite, to step into one and fly it wherever the craft can go, and do so in a stable and safe manner.  All it takes is to have the vehicle's control computer mediate between pilot manipulation of the controls and the control signals to the vehicle’s ‘autopilot’ that actually controls the power to the rotors and other control surfaces.

Of course, such craft can also be flown in tightly packed airways under the control of traffic control computers which take over from operator when the craft approaches such an airway.  Take a look at some of the other models of small hover craft on YouTube to appreciate their extreme maneuverability and controllability.  Modern times.  (H/T to RR reader for link.)

PS.  And now think about our education system and how prepared it is to supply workers into a world where such technology becomes commonplace.

Afghanistan out of eyeshot

George Rebane

The farce that was Vietnam spawned many books and movies about the chasm between the in-country reality and the evening propaganda we consumed at home.  For me one of the signal tomes about that war was The Bright Shining Lie (1988) by Neil Sheehan.  The best rationale anyone could come up with, after our helicopters left the rooftops of Saigon in 1975, was that we showed the Soviets and Red China how expensive it would be for them to continue pushing over the dominos of communist conquest.  Perhaps that justified the 55,000 that came back in body bags, and the countless more who brought the horror of war home to their families.

Today the victor North Vietnam is called simply Vietnam, Saigon is named after Ho Chi Minh, the father of their country, and we are encouraging a trading relationship between us that is designed to scare hell out of China.  Maybe, if we play our cards right, we can get them to start buying our Treasuries and then stiff them like we will the Chinese.  Revenge is sweet, and revenge delayed is sweeter yet.  Then again, maybe not.

Today we are the umpteenth ‘empire’ that has put its boots on the ground between the stark mountain ranges that define Afghanistan.  We went in there to punish the Islamists who had attacked us all over the world, and were training to redouble the 9/11 battle on our shores.  And then we stayed there to do some “nation building” in the best of democratic traditions.

Somebody forgot to look up that the place never was a nation.  It was just a collection of warring and terminally backward tribes stuck in the middle ages.  Their biggest leap into modern times was trading in their muzzle loaders for AK-47s and RPG launchers (and some of our Stingers).  Their perennial economy was and still is supplying the world with delights derived from the poppy pods.  And we went in there to unify the tribes into one big happy drug-free democracy.

We the Sheeple – The cancer of CARB

George Rebane

Only its numbers make a social issue important.  Not understanding its numbers is to not understand the social issue.

[RR is opening a new category of topics – ‘We the Sheeple’ – in which posts that report on how quietly and without a murmur we accept the governments’ relentless ravages on our freedoms and finances.  These items are meant to highlight that we, a once fiercely free and independent people, have now become what can only be described as yet another cowardly and compliant cohort pretending that we understand what’s going on, and are willing to stand up for our and our children’s rights as citizens of a once exceptional America.  Consider these offerings as a murmur.]

A correspondent sends a report of a local Californian who is planning on changing some light fixtures in his house.  Doing the research on the type and price of the new lights available here in the Sacramento area, the price tag came to $1080 for the required hardware.  A little more online research disclosed that the identical hardware could be purchased in Reno for $730.  The reason – in California such lighting hardware must succumb to, er, conform to California’s ‘Title 24 energy code’ and be certified by CARB (California Air Resources Board) to be in compliance.

In these pages CARB has long been identified as possibly the most vicious agency on the long list of rogue agencies in California, now even surpassing the teachers’ and  public service employees unions.  CARB is the agency most recently charged with implementing and enforcing compliance with the notorious AB32 (‘clean air’) legislation that has shut down hundreds of businesses or driven them out of state.  (Search RR with ‘AB32’)

We recall that California voters attempted to pass Prop23 to remove some of AB32’s fangs.  The unions and green kool-aid funded NGOs successfully fought to defeat Prop23.  Many of us predicted the economic holocaust that was to come, and now it is here.  (As a defiant reminder, Jo Ann and I still have our ‘Prop23, Jobs First’ bumper stickers on our cars.  These are the first and only bumper stickers we have ever had on our vehicles on which they now are permanent fixtures.)  Recall the local yokels who made the northern California rounds proclaiming a new age of green jobs and industries that AB32 would make bloom and get us out of our dire economic straits.  Well, I wonder how all this is working out for them, it sure isn’t working out for the rest of us.

Can you imagine how many everyday items, such destructive laws as AB32’s Title 24, are out there, quietly stealing from us day in day out.  The cancer of CARB has metastasized another 50+% tax (yes, that’s a fifty percent new tax added to all the other taxes) on the above described light fixtures and thousands of other items, and we don’t make a peep.  Those who do discover it will quietly climb in their cars and go over the hill to save more than $300 on this purchase alone, and in the process deprive California merchants from making such sales locally.  Meanwhile, the rest of us just cluck-cluck our tongues, shake our heads, and dig deeper into our wallets to pay the next tranche of tribute to a government that no longer serves.  And California's green catastrophe just rolls on.

Occupy vs TeaParty - A comparative summary

George Rebane

The following table arrived from a correspondent and RR reader.  We note the similarities in the two movements.  Edifying.

The Employment Follies Continue (updated 6feb12)

George Rebane

Today the feds announced that almost a quarter million jobs were created in January, and the unemployment rate dropped to 8.3%.  As an aside, it was reported that all the "economists and analysts" were again surprised because their predictions missed reality again by over a 100% - albeit 'reality' was a bit munged again by the feds.  It continues to amaze me that these jokers can keep their jobs and still sway markets with their random dart throwing.

Nevertheless, here and on other blogs (e.g. Russ Steele's NC2012) we continue to point out the hokey way that unemployment is calculated.  A few days ago I presented a little 'back of the envelope' (BOE) model of employment as affected by some gross national variables (here).  In it I focused on the effect of technology driven productivity increases on unemployment rate.  But I kept the historically declining fraction of the working age cohort constant that is still in the labor force.  If you allow this fraction to continue decreasing, that means convincing more people to quit looking for work, then the unemployment rate will keep dropping.  But does that represent a good situation for the country?

As more people give up on the jobs market, they are ensnared by the dole departments of government.  And, of course, income inequality (see Gini index) continues to get bigger.  And just like night follows day, the Democrats get more voters because they 'care about the poor'.  And with more socialist hands on the levers of government, national debt keeps skyrocketing and the economy heads at the same brickwall that EU countries are speeding towards as you read this.

The above Excel spreadsheet is an expanded version of the last one; I have added the ability to play with the fraction of working age people actually in the workforce, i.e. working or looking for work.  In the above scenario we reduce this fraction by half a percent per year.  And, wonder of wonders, unemployment rate plummets over the next ten years.  Eveyone who wants a job is working, and with numbers like 0.5% unemployment in 2022, we'll be happy dancing in the streets.  The problem with this vision of Ameritopia is that over a hundred million working age people are sitting on their butts cashing in food stamps.  Now there's a picture of social stability for you.

But what happens if we adopt national policies that attract a greater fraction, say 0.5%/year, of working age into the workforce?  Even with productivity increases maintained at a modest 2%/year, we see the unemployment rate almost double in the next ten years.  So if unemployment rate is the critical measure, as it today seems to be, then you don't want to create a situation where too many sheeple get enthused and actually start looking for a job.

So there you have it, a winning formula for the Democrats - point to the increasing number of jobs and dropping unemployment rate, but keep things hopeless enough to discourage job seekers, promise more government relief for the growing number of unemployed, and the whole thing is guaranteed to be impenetrable to the country's rank and file voters.

[The spreadsheet can be downloded here  Download Employment2022A.  The blue numbers are inputs you can change and watch the effect on that all important and little understood unemployment rate.]

[6feb12 update]  Saw a remarkable interview with a senior analyst from the Brookings Institute on Fox News tonight.  Apparently the steady stream of lies from the administration, progressives in Congress, and the lapdog lamestream about the middle class losing to the upper quintile is getting too much for even this prestigious left-leaning policy analysis organization.  They had to set the record straight, else by their silence it would be reasonable to infer that they were party to the ongoing detour around truth.  It turns out that their analysis also shows that the gains to the upper class did NOT come at a loss to the middle class.  Furthermore, there is no loss of mobility between the American economic classes.  For example, the chances that someone from the lowest quintile moving to the middle quintile is greater than 50%, and the chance that someone in the top quintile moving down is greater than one out of three.  And yes, amazing as it is, the chance of getting to the top quintile from one of the upper quintiles is higher than getting there from the bottom quintile.  Sumbich, now there's a clear reason for a fundamentally transformative revolution in America.  (You think that ABC, NBC, CBS, MSNBC, NYT, Wash Post, ... carried this report?)

Obama's Georgia Eligibility Hearing Update

George Rebane

RR has reported the ins and outs of the allegations and evidence that challenge President Obama’s eligibility to be President.  The latest chapter of this constitutional proto-saga was held in a Georgia courtroom on 26 January, a few days ago.  Craig Andersen on National Patriot has a blow-by-blow coverage of that hearing which was introduced by the website’s editor with

The hearing was before Judge Michael Malihi of the Georgia state Office of State Administrative Hearings. David Farrar, Leah Lax, Thomas Malaren and Laurie Roth, represented by California attorney Orly Taitz, who has handled numerous cases concerning Obama’s eligibility; David Weldon represented by attorney Van R. Irion of Liberty Legal Foundation; and Carl Swensson and Kevin Richard Powell, represented by J. Mark Hatfield. This hearing took place  in the courthouse lacated at: 230 Peachtree Street N.W., Suite 850 Atlanta, Georgia 30303 on January 26th 2012 at 9am EST.

The ‘eligibility’ in question is President Obama’s appearance on the Georgia ballot for President this coming November.  Georgia has a very specific law about how all candidates for President have to present their bona fides that substantiate their being a “natural born citizen” of the United States as called out by the Constitution.

New thoughts on Innovation, Entrepreneurship, and Education (2feb12 update)

George Rebane

A recent study by Vivek Wadhwa of the Singularity University published in the MIT Technology Review reports that older techies start more successful technology based companies than do those still a little damp behind their ears.  This contradicts a long-held myth.

The Kaufman Foundation which gathered data for the study states that a “survey of entrepreneurs found that most started their first company at age 39. People with degrees in computer science started companies much sooner than those with advanced training in other sciences or engineering.”  The nearby chart from Wadhwa’s piece summarizes the data.

This ties with my own experience.  I co-founded my first company at the age of 43, and my last fling was at 58.  Now, in my seventies, I’m still in there wiggling to help another start-up, hopefully on its way to the stars.  Wadhwa points out why the mature technical types have had the lion’s share of success.  The reasons are not surprising.

Musing over these findings I recall the educational backgrounds of technical workers in technology based start-ups.  Having hired many an engineer and programmer in my time, the candidates' formal credentials were of least interest to me as an entrepreneur and hiring manager.  I wanted people who could get the job done, and I have always been sufficiently astute technically (as are most other such technology managers) that I could vet the candidate myself through the interview process.

This is possibly a major advantage that technology has over other ‘soft’ business and professional areas.  Government has not yet put its heavy hand into the truly innovative and creative businesses enough to stifle the mobility and access of good talent.  Some of my best techies had no college degree at all.  This started me thinking on a thread that was piqued by Fay Vincent's – ‘Price Controls for Harvard’ in today’s (1feb12) WSJ.