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« Blazing skirt hits airwaves (updated 20sep12) | Main | The Employment Picture - Who's on first? »

18 September 2012

Comments

THEMIKEYMCD

One of you best posts George. Very well done.

Todd Juvinall

Ecxcellant!

THEMIKEYMCD

In the interest of fairness: Obama in 1998 stating ""I Actually Believe In Redistribution"

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ge3aGJfDSg4

THEMIKEYMCD

Does it piss anyone else off that the progressives are angry at Romney's 47% comments and silent about the 9-11-2012 murders of Americans?

#priorities #values #greatdivide

Walt

Mikey.. Did you catch the story about "O" and Co. using Mediamatters as their propaganda spin machine?
I seems the White House has it's own bought and paid for
press room. Both reports are about equal in the "wizzed off" dept.

Wayne Hullett

So, Mr. Romney, Social Security and Medicare recipients are nothing but a bunch of freeloading moochers? I don't think so!

Let's remember that the folks receiving those govermnent benefits have paid for them through FICA and Medicare payroll deductions over their entire careers. If the Social Security and Medicare tax revenues had been properly invested over the years instead of being raided by sleazebsag politicians to fund their vote buying projects in order to keep their sorry asses in Washington, then there would be a sinking fund available to pay for those "entitlements". Instead these benefits must now be paid out of current revenues, which gives the APPEARANCE that Social Security and Medicare recipients are freeloading off current taxpayers. That is simply not true.

Don't demonize those who want their promised return on the monies they have paid in (at gunpoint) over 30 year careers. Instead, how about Congress taking responsibility for their decades of malfeasance? And putting in place controls to prevent a recurrence? I don't think I will wait by the phone for news that that has happened.

Todd Juvinall

I don't think I heard Mr. Romney say freeloaders or moochers. What I know about psychology thought is when someone puts those kinds of words in someone else's mouth that person is actually feeling guilty about being those words.

I think he could have said the point in a more PC way to keep the secret taper happy I guess, but we all know Romney is no piker in charitable giving and his feelings of empathy for the truly poor in our society. What troubles the PC liberals and democrats is Romney told the truth about them. Of course Romney was not talking about seniors and those that pay payroll taxes. This is a non starter for the libs and their lamestream media matters sycophants.

David King

This is kinda funny!

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bQu2SVFF-cU

Walt

A little from what Mikey found.
"Amid public distrust, “the trick is figuring out how do we structure government systems that pool resources and hence facilitate some redistribution? — because I actually believe in redistribution, at least at a certain level to make to make sure everybody has got a shot,” Obama told a Loyola University audience in October 1998."

Paul Emery

It doesn't matter what you believe, the Romney blab was really dumb and will hurt his election chances. It's very derogatorily to poor people and seniors who are low income and can barely get by. Also those on unemployment insurance who are desperately looking for work must be sick to their stomach to hear Romneys view that they are leeches.

This will have major spinoff in other elections. Jim Reed is going after LaMalfa for his farm subsidies

"The next time you see Doug LaMalfa, you ask him, 'Who's more dependent on government -- my hard-working family, or Doug LaMalfa -- who took nearly $5 million in government hand-outs?'"

billy T

Thank you Paul for reminding me what a broken record sounds like. Without Romney and Ryan, Social Security will go down the tubes. Thank goodness we have two people with backbone to help our seniors and our future seniors. Thank goodness for Romney and Ryan's plan to save Social Security and Medicare despite the heat, flak, and ridicule they have endured. Lesser men would have shied away for political expediency.

Finally, someone telling the free enterprise story, the American story, the American Dream story. More jobs mean more people paying taxes. Romney's plan is to help the poor by lifting people out of poverty. Get that? Lifting people out of poverty. Lifting people out of poverty by creating Biden's 3 letter word: Jobs.

Paul Emery

Billy T

As I said you may agree with Romney but still appreciate what bad politics it is to accuse 47% of US citizens of being freeloaders. That's the kind of language you use if you're a fringe 3rd party candidate not someone who is trying to win. Again, I think the Pubbers are trying to throw the fight. Why else would they defend such a stupid comment. Sheez!!!

Todd Juvinall

So PaulE let me get this traight. Romney is going to lose becasue he tells us the truth and Obama is going to win becasue he has been busy dividing America into groups and making class warfare? OK I think I get it.

LaMalfa can answer your questions since you have a radio program and as a journalist I would assume you might do that.

George Rebane

PaulE 422pm - I missed all those dots you connected in Romney's "blab" - "leeches", "freeloaders", "derogitorily(sic)"??

Where did all this come from? What part of Romney's statement last May was untrue? Can he really count on the votes of people whose day-to-day quality of life depends on a check from the government, the size and scope of which he promises to reduce if elected. Did he not correctly identify the cohort of voters that is still his to influence when he talked to his supporters?

There was an undecided voter on the news tonight who was caught between voting for Romney for the economy, and voting for Obama for the 'social issues'. The doofus joins the millions of 'stash' believers - 'I don' know where he get it; Obama's got a stash! O Bamaah! O Bamaah!'. None of the boneheads realize that without a wealth generating economy, you can forget about the social issues. And Obama is counting on that core ignorance to carry him back into office.

billy T

Ok, Paul, fair enough. You call it stupid. To each his own. Must be a great comment to enrage the Liberal Nation. Hit too close to home for some of the faint of heart. I would not change much. Maybe explain that some pay no federal income tax because of that child tax credit and the earned income credit. I love Romney's words that a percentage of the American people will not take personal responsibility nor ever vote for him. True as the day is long.

Man o man, that really got Entitlement Nation off the couch and calling 991-Medical.

Ok, maybe Romney should have tied in paying taxes to his economic plan. More taxpayers are good, not bad. Lord knows we need a economic plan. He could have talked about that curse phrase for the gubbermint lubbers: Economic Freedom. Yes, it was horrid that mean ole rich Romney talked about personal responsibly. Meanie.

Fed Express announced today that they are going to have a rough 2013. "Why else would they defend such a stupid comment. Sheez!!!" Included me in "they". Them my people, the personal responsibility freedom from government types.

Paul Emery

Romney is going to lose because he's waging a lousy campaign. Saying 47% of the electorate are dependent upon government, who believe that they are victims... is simply wrong because it includes many people who have earned their retirement, are seniors as well as hard working folks trying to raise a family on low wages. That statement is so offensive I can't believe that you defend it.

Read this from the Business Insider and check in with me later.

"Meanwhile, Jim Antle at the conservative site The Daily Caller makes another salient point: The elimination of taxes on the very poor has been GOP policy starting with Reagan, and continuing through Bush:

When Ronald Reagan signed into law the Tax Reform Act of 1986, he boasted, “Millions of the working poor will be dropped from the tax rolls altogether, and families will get a long-overdue break with lower rates and an almost doubled personal exemption.”

Both the initial Reagan tax cuts of 1981 and indexing income taxes to inflation in 1985 had a similar effect.

In the 1990s, the Republican-controlled Gingrich Congress passed a $500 per child tax credit that also wiped out the income tax liability of many low- to moderate-income households.

“Fully 93 percent of the tax relief in our bill goes to taxpayers with annual incomes under $100,000, 76 percent goes to taxpayers with incomes under $75,000,” then-House Ways and Means Committe Chairman Bill Archer, a Texas Republican, said at the time. “If ever there was a tax plan for America’s forgotten middle class, this is it.”

Read more: http://www.businessinsider.com/mitt-romneys-47-who-are-dependent-on-the-government-2012-9#ixzz26s4NIndz

Paul Emery

Billy T

Do you really think that Romneys comments about the 47% and his follow up will enhance his chances of winning? If the election were held today he would probably lose so he needs to gain support. In your view what new support will he gain by taking that stance?

This is from William Kristol who is as conservative as you can get. He suggests that
Romney potentially should bail.

“It remains important for the country that Romney wins in November (unless he chooses to step down and we get the Ryan-Rubio ticket we deserve!). But that shouldn’t blind us to the fact that Romney’s comments, like those of Obama four years ago, are stupid and arrogant."

George Rebane

PaulE 532pm - In your growing enthusiasm to declare this election over, you again missed the point, this time of my 521pm. I wasn't making any statement or assertion about Romney's election chances, but exploring the Left's gleeful framing of Romney's remarks. Please reread my questions to you, and respond if you will.

(BTW, this is an illustration of how much of the debate proceeds these days - one party talks about apples, the responds about oranges.)

Paul Emery

Sure George

"blab" Just another word to describe lose talk,
"leeches" My interpretation of the end product of Romneys spouting that people are incurably dependent on government they won't help pay for "I'll never convince them they should take personal responsibility and care for their lives."

"freeloaders" same as above
"derogitorily(sic)" In that speech he intended to cast the 47% as weak and dependent instead of addressing their situations as examples of deserved entitlement, retired folks on fixed incomes or working poor that can barely get by. There is a small group that may scam the system but that's also true of the thousands of millionaires and very wealthy who do the same and pay no taxes. It's not likely that group will vote for Obama for sure.

Do you regard William Kristol's view "stupid and arrogant" with the same lens as mine?

George Rebane

PaulE 717pm - You clarified your already clear transliteration, but avoided my questions about the truth of the words that actually came out of Romney's mouth.

Re Kristol: I do.

Paul Emery

George

I have problems with that for sure. Characterizing 47% of the voters who do not pay taxes as being incurable Obama supporters is factually not true. Romney has strong support from seniors many of which pay little or no taxes because they are on fixed incomes, Social Security and Medicare. Also many of Obama's supporters are government workers and union members who earn good salaries and pay taxes. Do you consider them as part of the 47% ? Does Doug LaMalfa qualify as one of the 47% A good question I will ask him is whether he would indeed be a farmer if he didn't get government subsidies? How about the billions of subsidies to oil companies?

This whole issue is a very fortuitous for Obama. It distracts from his dismal economic record. My guess is between Romneys loose mouth and Obama's much more sophisticated campaign Romney is back on his heels and his supporters are obviously going huh.

A mutual friend of ours approached me about why a candidate that I worked for easily defeated his very close associate in a local election. When I told him it's because we ran a better campaign he got it. Right now Romney is the amateur. My guess is that the Dems held on to this one (the speech) and have more to come.
The more Romney is pushed to the right the more Obama looks to be the reasonable choice. so far Obamas campaign has been brilliant and he seems to be cruising to an easy win.

Todd Juvinall

Romney 53 Obama 47.

Paul Emery

Todd

Right now Obama is up 3% according to RCP averages and up by 5 on the Fox poll.
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/us/general_election_romney_vs_obama-1171.html

He will likely pick up another two or three next week because of his mouth problems. You are saying that Romney will pull off a 10 point swing in six weeks. Other than your incurable Republican genetic traits altering your reasoning ability what makes you think that will happen?

billy T

Oh Paul, just got back. Nice bar-b-que devouring succulent pig just to drive the Ragheads up the wall. But, I digress. Bill Crystal is NOT a Romney fan. Never was his first, second, or third choice. Romney is just too darn moderate and candy ass for Crystal. Consider the source. Obama is just too candy ass for PETA, Berkley, Maxine Waters, Bill Ayers, Bernie Sanders, and the center of the Universe, aka, Nevada City.

billy T

Paul: PS: plan that Doug LaMafla tape over and over and over again until we all get it. I get it. The wheel is spinning but the hamster is dead.

Russ Steele


DiploMad 2.0 has some interesting insight into the “secret tape” that I think has some merit and that many of the lefty posters on this blog are validating.

“You all have heard about the edited "secret" tape being released in which Romney tells donors some months ago that the core of Obama's base is the 47% of Americans who do not pay taxes and who get some sort of federal assistance. I am sure this was a typical Chicago-way operation by the Obama campaign. They recorded the tape, saved it, edited it, and released it just as it became clear that it was no longer possible to hide how bad things have gotten for our country under Obama. The economy is imploding, the middle east is exploding, and all the lies by Susan Rice and Jim Carney can no longer hide the elephant in the room. They now rely on the tame media to spend three or four days going on and on about the "secret" tape and how this means that the Romney campaign is over.”

“I am sure we will see the obligatory polls which will show disaster for Romney, and those will become the lede on NBC, CBS, ABC, CNN, and others. Our embassies will be burning, our soldiers getting murdered by our Afghan "allies," the unemployment rate will be remaining above 8%, fuel and food prices will be rising, the deficit will be growing by leaps and bounds, and we will be discussing the horror of a tape in which Romney tells the truth.”

Paul Emery


Russ
And the Republicans are offering an unelectable alternative conducting a pathetic campaign. Russ, the Fox Poll shows Obama up by 5. Are you saying that Obama's Chicago gang used tactics learned from the late legendary slimer Andrew Breitbart to doctor the Romney video of his pitch to the 1% ?

Paul Emery

Unbelievable

Fox is featuring an Obama tape from 1998. Desperation is setting in.

Russ Steele

These “gaffes” will help Romney. That should be evident in polling in a few days.

Now if only more such “controversial” videos could be leaked…

I think NRO readers have it right:

Did Romney make a gaffe about the 47%?
Yes=23%
N0=77%
Total Votes 21,565

Stay Tuned.

billy T

It ain't over till its over. Never a good idea to remove the armor before the battle ends.

TomKenworth

Romney needs a roll of Gaffers tape (high end duct tape).

TomKenworth

These days you need HAZMAT suits as much as armor.

TomKenworth

Good night, early birds! http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TAFj2-u2cGQ

Todd Juvinall

PaulE, read this poll anaisys where they strip away the weighted respondents and give a true look at the percentages. You of course will discount it since you are a liberal, but it will be the final totals.

unskewedpolls.com

Greg Zaller supplied this link on RL's blog.

Russ Steele

Interesting polling facts.

Since 2004, Rasmussen has polled party ID (Dems versus Reps.) Dems always led, until the fall or 2010. Since then, Republicans have led in all but three months.

Just how big a change did Rasmussen chart? In the last quarter of 2008, the Dems had a 7.8% lead in party ID. Now the GOP has a 1.8% lead, a change of 9.6% in the Republican’s favor.

Russ Steele

Oh no, left caught on the cutting room floor again. From Breitbart News:

The Legal Insurrection blog's William Jacobson and The Blaze both raised questions on Tuesday about whether Mother Jones had, as promised, revealed the full video, given an apparent jump cut in the critical section of Romney's remarks. 

"Something is missing.  Romney’s 47% answer was cut off before completed, and is not picked up on the Part 2 audio video," Jacobson noted.

Late Tuesday evening, Jacobson obtained the following comment from David Corn of Mother Jones:
According to the source, the recording device inadvertently turned off. The source noticed this quickly and turned it back one [sic]. The source estimates that one to two minutes, maybe less, of recording was missed.

Corn was forced to update his original post, which promised the "full" video, to reflect the fact that a key portion of the video is, in fact, missing. 

There is no way to know, without the missing footage, exactly what Romney said. On Monday evening, Romney called for a complete video of his remarks to be released.

That now turns out to be impossible, either because Romney's remarks were never recorded in full (as Mother Jones now claims), or because some of his remarks--perhaps mitigating some of the controversial effect of his statements--were selectively edited out of the tape by Mother Jones or its chain of sources (including former President Jimmy Carter's grandson).

Now we are all waiting for the rest of the story.

Paul Emery

The rest of the story is that Romney supports what he said so it doesn't matter. Amazing the Breitbart News would even say a word about this considering the record of their late founder who raised the level of media slime to new records. If you consider that a credible source go for it. No one else will.

Keep dreaming Todd.

TomKenworth

You means the Dems did with Romney, what Romney Inc did with "You didn't build that?" Surprise, Surprise! It's an election, get used to it. Everybody knows you can't change the minds of the Smarts, it's the Stupids you go after, like the ones reading the Nat'l Enquirer story about the Obama daughters getting caught with drugs.

Steven Frisch

Seriously guys, this whole '47% pay no taxes' meme is absolutely indefensible, and trying to defend it is just going to harm Romney's campaign even more. It's not just that a huge number of the "47%" are retired, active duty military, disabled, pensioners, or recipients of social security or medicare (programs that they paid into); or even that a huge majority of the 47% pay sales and use, state income, payroll and other taxes; or that even Mr. Romney did not deny his words, thus giving credence to the accuracy of the video; or that Mr. Romney's brief bizarre explanatory press conference did not address the question; or that dozens of Republican leaders and candidates have now abandoned his position; the real problem is that it is just completely out of step with what Americans want in a President.

Love him or hate him, when President Obama says he stands up like a man and asks for everyones vote, and regularly states that he is the President of all of the people, he is telling the truth, and has demonstrated that for almost 4 years. People remember him reaching out to opposing points of view and political leaders who oppose his policies with an open hand. They remember leaders in Congress saying our number goal is to make this President fail. They remember that the Republicans have done nothing but heap scorn on this President, implying he is a foreigner, un-American, a communist, illegitimate, an 'other". Now they see that in the eyes of Mitt Romney, they are 'others' too. They are defined as 'the problem'.

No one wins a US Presidential election defining the American people as the problem.

There are 50 days left in this campaign, and a lot can happen, polls can narrow, I still think it will be close; but what Mr. Romney said and how he responded to it just offset hundreds of millions of dollars of Romney advertising and set his campaign back weeks. Now the issue of the campaign is not just the economy; they are abortion, medicare, tax policy, aptitude for foreign policy, and what does Mr. Romney really thinks....who is Mr. Romney really...is he the man we see on the stump or the man in the glass booth.....uh and oh yeah....the economy.

Steven Frisch

Seriously guys, this whole '47% pay no taxes' meme is absolutely indefensible, and trying to defend it is just going to harm Romney's campaign more. It's not just that a huge number of the "47%" are retired, active duty military, disabled, pensioners, or recipients of social security or Medicare (programs that they paid into); or that a huge majority of the 47% pay sales and use, state income, payroll and other taxes; or that Mr. Romney did not deny his words, thus giving credence to the accuracy of the video; or that Mr. Romney's brief bizarre explanatory press conference did not address the question; or that dozens of Republican leaders and candidates have now abandoned his position; the real problem is that it is just completely out of step with what Americans want in a President.

Love him or hate him, when President Obama says he stands up and asks for everyone’s vote, and regularly states that he is the President of all of the people, he is telling the truth, and has demonstrated that for almost 4 years. People remember him reaching out to opposing points of view and political leaders who oppose his policies. They remember leaders in Congress saying their number one goal is to make this President fail. They remember that the Republicans have done nothing but heap scorn on this President, implying he is a foreigner, un-American, a communist, illegitimate, an 'other".

Now they see confirmation that in the eyes of Mitt Romney, they are 'others' too. They are defined as 'the problem'.

No one wins a US Presidential election defining the American people as the problem.

There are 50 days left in this campaign, and a lot can happen, polls can narrow, I still think it will be close; but what Mr. Romney said and how he responded to it just offset hundreds of millions of dollars of Romney and SuperPAC advertising and set his campaign perhaps fatally. Now the issue of the campaign is not the economy; the issues are abortion, Medicare, tax policy, aptitude for foreign policy, and what does Mr. Romney really think, who is Mr. Romney really, is he the man we see on the stump or the man in the glass booth.....uh and oh yeah....the economy.

Steven Frisch

And for those that just want to throw wild ass guesses with no comment or analysis behind them on the
table like red meat:

Obama: 51
Romney 47
Other 2

THEMIKEYMCD

Some would call 2 + 2 = 4 "absolutely indefensible"

47%+ of 'americans' PAY ZERO FEDERAL INCOME TAX. FACT. DEFENDSIBLE.

http://blog.heritage.org/wp-content/uploads/CDA-2012-index-dependence-govt-chart-1_732.jpg

http://www.irs.gov/uac/SOI-Tax-Stats---Collections-and-Refunds,-by-Type-of-Tax---IRS-Data-Book-Table-1

"In 2011 those 76 million people, about 46 percent of the people WHO FILED taxes, did not pay a penny in income taxes"- does not account for those who don't even file!


Your purple Kool-aid tongue is showing.

THEMIKEYMCD

I'm sorry, Obama is no longer using Kool-aid... it's champagne!
"Speaking to the 47%: The $105,000 champagne tower featured at Obama fundraiser hosted by Jay-Z and Beyonce"

Read more: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2205541/280-000-champagne-tower-Obama-fundraiser-Jay-Z-Beyonce-Manhattan-night-club.html#ixzz26w31W89z

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Champagne_socialist
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2205541/280-000-champagne-tower-Obama-fundraiser-Jay-Z-Beyonce-Manhattan-night-club.html?ito=feeds-newsxml

Ryan Mount

> http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Champagne_socialist

Indeed. A Man of the People courting the Outer party members of Oceania.

"The society of Oceania is sharply stratified into three groups, the small power-seeking and government controlling Inner Party, the more numerous and highly indoctrinated Outer Party, and the large body of politically meaningless and mindless Proles."

TomKenworth

If those who rounded up all the marbles are unwilling to make any jobs for the 47%, then it is perfectly defensible that the 47% pay no taxes.

Paul Emery

A pretty simple analysis of the election boils down to this. Romney has to win nearly all the swing states on the table, while Obama only has to win a handful. Obama is ahead in most swing states. Nuff said?

Todd Juvinall

Romney 54, Obama 46. Take it to the bank.

TomKenworth

Todd Juvinall joins AlwaysRight of The Union November 2008 even into the afternoon of the landslide.

TomKenworth

"n the video, Romney accused supporters of Democratic President Barack Obama of paying no income tax. "These are people who pay no income tax," he said. "Forty-seven percent of Americans pay no income tax."

Here are some facts and estimates about who pays different types of taxes in the United States, how much they pay, and why.

INCOME, SALES, STATE, MEDICARE AND SOCIAL SECURITY TAXES

- About 46 percent of U.S. households paid no federal income tax in 2011, according to the Tax Policy Center, a centrist think tank in Washington, D.C.

- However, almost two-thirds of those who paid no income tax did pay employment tax to support the Social Security pension program and the Medicare healthcare program, the center said.

Employment, or payroll, taxes are regularly withheld by employers from the paychecks of working Americans. Employment taxes hit the poor harder than others because they are a fixed percentage of individual income.

- Households that do not owe federal income tax are still subject to state sales taxes and property taxes.

WHO AND WHY INDIVIDUALS OWE NO FEDERAL INCOME TAX

- In most cases, it is elderly and poor households that do not pay federal income tax, according to the Tax Policy Center.

- About half of those who pay no federal income tax are allowed to do so because their incomes are too low.

- Others take advantage of specific tax breaks, including a large portion used by the elderly, but also the Earned Income Tax Credit and the Child Credit. Both of the low-income tax breaks have been expanded recently under Democratic and Republican administrations."

http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/09/18/us-factbox-americans-income-idUSBRE88H0ZN20120918

Paul Emery

Todd

How is Romney going to turn this around? If you were his campaign manager what would you do?

TomKenworth

Obama 51, Romney 65, you can take those numbers to the bank until next March. The median age of American voters is 44.

Gregory

An obscure Okie wrote the following in an op-ed three score years ago:
"Two centuries ago, a somewhat obscure Scotsman named Tytler made this profound observation: "A democracy cannot exist as a permanent form of government. It can only exist until the majority discovers it can vote itself largess out of the public treasury. After that, the majority always votes for the candidate promising the most benefits with the result the democracy collapses because of the loose fiscal policy ensuing, always to be followed by a dictatorship, then a monarchy."

It strikes me the current tempest in a teapot is just a continuance of this, only the current loudest local idiot with an obvious Scottish bloodline is on the side of the idiots pushing for more money for nothing.

Gregory

"How is Romney going to turn this around? If you were his campaign manager what would you do?" - Paul E

How about focusing on polls that don't oversample Democrats, inflating Obama's total?

Checking Rasmussen's website, today we have "Swing State Daily Tracking: Romney 47%, Obama 46%".

It's a horse race, and it's Obama that needs to get above 50%, or the undecideds voting their wallets will push Romney over the top.

Overall, Rasmussen says "The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Wednesday shows Mitt Romney attracting support from 47% of voters nationwide, while President Obama earns 46% of the vote. Three percent (3%) prefer some other candidate, and four percent (4%) are undecided. See daily tracking history.

When “leaners” are included, the race is tied with both Obama and Romney at 48%."

Nice try, Paul. The optimistic Obama polls have more Dems than R's and the undecideds, and generally assume Dems will turn out to vote as enthusiastically as they did in 2008.

Michael Anderson

Nate Silver is the only place I bother looking anymore: http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/

What he tells me is that Obama had a great last couple of weeks of August and first week of Sept., and then Libya blew up and he's been losing ground ever since. The post-9/11 trend started to flatten out in the past day or so, and unless Romney can stop this new movement he's finished.

Ohio, Virginia, Florida -- these are the only states that matter. Only in Florida does Romney really have a shot, at least as of today.

As Steve Frisch says, this could all change in a heartbeat: an October surprise in the Middle East, Obama taking a dump in the debates, something else we can't even anticipate.

So, until I get any further info. from Nate that things are changing, I am planning on Obama having a 2nd term. And I am actively avoiding the 24/7 election news cycle since I have a lot better things to do with my time.

Paul Emery

Gregory

Rasmussen is indeed the anomaly from all the rest. Pollsters always go with an average of all major polls, hence RCP's average showing Obama up by three. http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/us/general_election_romney_vs_obama-1171.html

You would not make a very good campaign manager. Their job is to be skeptical and always be looking for a creative edge to apply their resources to. My favorite pollster is Nate Silver who called every state in 2008 except for one. http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/author/nate-silver/

You might check him out just to see how a serious pollster looks at things. Pretty fascinating.

You might find comfort in him showing a slight Obama slump or adjustment from the post convention bounce. Despite what you may think as a Republican patriot the Romney video was a serious gaff that will neutralize millions of campaign dollars (resources) and puts Romney on the defensive since he has to explain himself which is a waste of time in a tight election.

Todd Juvinall

PaulE, no need to worry. Your desire to see Romney defeated is quite evident. You are so excited. But we are a bit more realistic and sober and have seen these things before. have posted many responses here and on my blog about polls and I just don't share your orgasm about Obama winning. Here is a place I hot from Greg Zaller and if you go there I would suggest you take a Prozac first.

unskewedpolls.com

Paul Emery

Yeah Todd , Romneys a winner. Shel Silverstein would put it this way. From his sing "The Winner"

http://www.lyricsmania.com/the_winner_lyrics_shel_silverstein.html


.......He said, "You see these bright white smilin' teeth, you know they ain't my own.
Mine rolled away like Chiclets down a street in San Antone.
But I left that person cursin', nursin' seven broken bones.
And he only broke three of mine, and that make me a winner."

He said, "Behind his grin, I got a steel pin that holds my jaw in place.
A trophy of my most successful motorcycle race.
And every mornin' when I wake and touch this scar across my face,
It reminds me of all I got by bein' a winner.

Now my broken back was the dyin' act of handsome Harry Clay
That sticky Cincinnatti night I stole his wife away.
But that woman, she gets uglier and meaner every day.
But I got her, boy, and that's what makes me a winner.

You gotta speak loud when you challenge me, son, 'cause it's hard for me to hear
With this twisted neck and these migraine pains and this cauliflower ear.
'N' if it weren't for this glass eye of mine, I'd shed a happy tear
To think of all you'll get by bein' a winner........

It goes on and on

Todd Juvinall

Huh?

Michael Anderson

It's called "irony" Todd. You can look it up on the Internets.

Todd Juvinall

I iron my own clothes.

Michael Anderson

That was funny, Todd. Thanks for the morning laugh!

TomKenworth

Todd, here's the song on the video, maybe you'll get it by hearing it sung by Bobby Bare:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=endscreen&v=JRWlnv0_svU&NR=1

Paul Emery

I was referring to those who thught Romney came out a winner after his Libya and speech to the 1% blunders. Yep Romney, you're a winner.

Paul Emery

They are launching the lifeboats. Pawlenty jumps in to go to work for the bank lobby. Romney says "While I regret he cannot continue as co-chair of my campaign, his new position advancing the integrity of our financial system is vital to the future of our country." Really Mitt.

Paul Emery

Todd

I looked into the website that you jumped up and down about and endorsed as being the true pollsters and this was their headline. Now that's hard hitting journalistic integrity that sure raises the level of conversation. Thanks for enlightening us Todd as to your intellectual depths.

"Liberals wish death on 6-year-old conservative after video goes viral"


http://www.qstarnews.net/articletemplate.cfm?articlenumber=2092


Todd Juvinall

PaulE, you must be smoking the ganga again. I am unaware I ever posted the link you have used. If you are talking about the one I did post it was from Greg Zaller. Romney 53, Obama 47. Read it and weep.

Paul Emery

todd

unskewedpolls.com is a publication of http://www.qstarnews.net/

You should always check your sources. Pretty easy to follow.

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