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« Ruminations – 9nov14 (updated 12nov14) | Main | Sandbox - 12nov14 »

10 November 2014


Scott Obermuller

OK - so who's gonna win the fifth at Hialeah?
Sorry, I couldn't help it.
The proof will be in the pudding. It will be interesting to see what sort of near term predictions you might come up with and post that we can mark down and check later. The better the batting average, the more interest it will attract. I'll try a few examples myself and see how well I can do.

George Rebane

ScottO 647pm - OK, go for it. One of the better uses for method is as obtaining a better prior probability for Bayesian estimation. In short, if you're expecting to incorporate future evidence regarding a proposition/hypothesis that start out as a MKP, then use its Gott probability to start things off. We'll be doing more stuff with Bayes on RR that involves reader participation as the 2016 election season starts after the new year. Fun stuff.

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