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« Ruminations – 24sep16 (updated 29sep16) | Main | Tongue tied in America »

26 September 2016

Comments

Russ

How Trump won over a bar full of undecideds and Democrats

Kady Letoksy, a paralegal by day, a waitress and bartender at night at the Tin Lizzy, sat beside him. At 28, she has never voted before, and she is now thinking it might be a good idea to start.

Letosky entered the evening undecided in a town that is heavily Democratic in registration. Her sister and father are on opposite sides of the political aisle. Donald “Trump had the upper hand this evening,” she said, citing his command of the back-and-forth between him and Hillary Clinton.

Reed, 35, is a registered Democrat and small businessman. “By the end of the debate, Clinton never said a thing to persuade me that she had anything to offer me or my family or my community,” he said, sitting at the same bar that has boasted local icons as regulars, such as the late Fred Rogers, and Arnold Palmer, who had his own stash of PM Whiskey hidden behind newer bottles of whiskey for his regular visits.

http://nypost.com/2016/09/26/the-best-debate-takes-come-from-inside-the-bar/

Russ

Online Polls at Drudge, CNN and Time Magazine have Trump leading by 2/3s at the time I looked.

Bill Tozer

For debating style, I would say Hillary won. More polished, and this is Trump's first time. Missed opportunities abound, but style and direct answers is not what last night was about. It was about selling themselves. Instead of focusing on how Hiilary looked after 90 minutes of standing up, the real focus (because Trump is the underdog) is how did Trump look after 90 minutes with the seasoned slippery Hillary. Trump was still standing at the end, so that is great news. He learned a lot last night and will use that experience in Rounds 2 and 3.

Hillary won on style. Trump won by responding more than reacting. Next time the gloves come off a wee bit more.

Todd Juvinall

I agree her style is more political than Trump's. But I think his strategy is to drop the bombs of emails and Foundation and other issues on the last debate. More effecting the outcome.

George Rebane

re ToddJ's 1019am - Given the revelations so far, any predictions on what the 'October Surprise(s)' will be from the various quarters?

Gregory

Online polls are next to meaningless.

I expect Trump made it over the "can enough voters imagine this guy as President" bar and that was his win.

The newsreader doing the moderation did his part "fact checking" Trump and Trump was right... in post debate coverage I saw both Hannity and former Clintonista poll expert Pat Caddell verify that Trump was arguing against resuming the Iraq war before Bush II went in.

fish

Apparently some local sockpuppets subscribe to the Woody Allen aphorism that 90% of life is merely showing up.....


Wanda says:

September 27, 2016 at 10:03 am

Neither of them disappointed. Hillary is the most experienced candidate for president than anyone in our history. Americans raised her. She’s been educated, and tried and tested and practiced with every possibility. She’s been tested and tried more than any man. Those of us who appreciate her are justified. Those who do not? Well…..

Trump is the least of any who ran before. It is ironic that the most experienced faces the least but the reflection they provide of the character of Americans is astonishing but not surprising given a century of unreason.


Cogent analysis from well worn footwear!

Todd Juvinall

George Rebane | 27 September 2016 at 10:25 AM

Nope

Gregory

"She’s been educated, and tried and tested and practiced with every possibility"


She sat for and failed the Washington D.C. bar exam, then kept the failure a secret for three decades.

Russ

Who won or lost depends on the point of view:

Sierra Club Statement on the First Presidential Debate

NEW YORK, NY - Tonight, Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump engaged in the first Presidential debate of the general election. During the debate, Secretary Clinton spoke about the profound economic opportunity posed by clean energy, while Donald Trump denied calling climate change a “hoax” despite using exactly that word on many occasions.

In response, Sierra Club Executive Director Michael Brune released the following statement:

“Tonight’s debate made it even more clear that Hillary Clinton is the only candidate in this race qualified and prepared to lead our nation, and Donald Trump proved who and what he is: a small-minded man who denies climate science and uses race and bluster to divide this country.

“The evidence started from the first sentence, when Hillary Clinton spoke of her commitment to grow the clean energy economy. It was only a few moments later that Trump lied about his own climate denial. Donald Trump is a fraud, and you don’t need to look further than his misguided attempts to deny the climate crisis and then cover his own dirty tracks.

“It’s not just that Hillary Clinton is running on the strongest climate platform in history and Trump is running on the worst. Its that Trump is the worst, most unstable candidate ever nominated and Clinton is the most qualified, and most prepared to ever be on the ballot.”

As expected! What else would they say?

fish

Posted by: Russ | 27 September 2016 at 11:57 AM

As expected! What else would they say?


C'mon Russ give the man a break.....that begging bowl isn't going to shake itself!

Walt

What? no "jon" claiming Hillary won? More polls than not give it to Trump.
OK,, that's my 1.5 cents,, now back to work...

Bill Tozer

Wasn't Lester Holt the guy who said the Muslim terrorist in Washibgton State over the weekend a "Hispanic male"? The media called the mass murderer a Hispanic. Where is the outrage from the Latino community? Why is no one but one one talking about this horrific act of Islamic terrorism on US soil?

I knew that no Hispanic would be involved.....er...no Hispanic affiliated with a drug cartel would do that. I did not expect Hillary to say anything about it because she can't even say the words "Islamic terrorism."

https://www.facebook.com/426883867374699/photos/a.539274122802339.1073741824.426883867374699/1199088430154235/?type=3&theater

Gregory

Nowadays, the Left is being extremely tribal, and the singly most solid Identification Friend or Foe issue they have is Anthropogenic Global Warming/Climate Change/Irritable Climate Syndrome. ISIS has "name Mohammed's mother", the "Progressive" left has "do you deny climate change", and "the climate has always been changing" isn't the answer that means they'll accept you as a sentient human being worthy of basic rights.

I know of one spouse of a Tour of Nevada City bike shop employee who trashed the moderate owner up and down during the recent County Super election because he accepted a campaign donation... from a DENIER! Didn't matter as much that the DENIER was also a Tea Party type, he should have known to throw the donation back. And when I dared to pipe up and defend the skeptic/scoffer point of view, they told me to shut up (literally) so they wouldn't have to think ill of me.

I didn't shut up. Imagine that. No, I don't think that person ever took a science class beyond a "Your Friend, the Amoeba" life-science-lite to fill a general ed requirement in either high school or JC and has not an inkling of how thin alarmist science actually is.

Bill Tozer

Ok, back on topic.

https://www.facebook.com/lastamericapatriots/photos/a.235087906641439.1073741826.235086849974878/714939708656254/?type=3&theater

Gregory

Regarding the October surprise, I'm halfway expecting emails deleted after the congressional subpoena that show duplicity over Benghazi. Or some variation showing contempt of congress and/or lying without shame.

Time will tell.

Gregory

Scott "Dilbert" Adams blogs about the debate
http://blog.dilbert.com/post/151007796236/i-score-the-first-debate

In short, Hill won the debate on points, Donald wins the election.

Russ

Bill T @01:24pm

Interesting photo. Look at this photo on the right side where her neck joins her shoulder, there appears to be a microphone on a thin flesh colored cable the disappears down her back. Your thoughts?

http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/files/photos/F/f4f4677b399841038197f78206cd9c76_1.html?SITE=AP&SECTION=HOME&TEMPLATE=DEFAULT

Russ

Gregory@01:24pm

I agree, the "October Surprise" will be the smoking gun email that everyone has been looking for. My guess is that Trump knows what is coming and is holding his email accusations for a more appropriate time, to reenforce the smoking gun charge. We will have to wait for the mail to drop. Revealed too soon and the impact will be lost. Needs to be two weeks before the election, even though voting is taking place now in some states.

Paul Emery

Russ

How do you suppose Trump would know details of the so called email dump? Perhaps he might be in contact with his Russian buddies.

fish

Posted by: Paul Emery | 27 September 2016 at 03:20 PM

My...that's rather "conspiracy theoristy" of you Paul. Thought the cool, rational, and measured left was above that sort of thing. In any case it's probably much more likely that somebody within federal law enforcement has had a bellyful of the "Chicago Way" currently holding sway in the Justice Department and is making the more damning info available in dribs and drabs to interested parties.

What do you care anyway.....you're voting for Johnson?

Gregory

Paul, there have been multiple rumblings the NSA has everything... I'd bet there are plenty of spooks in the Puzzle Palace that don't want Clinton as their liar in chief.

In short, Clinton had amateurs running her email server part time. Most everyone who was serious who wanted in probably did get in.

Gregory

Russ 139

You got to be kidding... why would someone want Hillary to wear a wire... when everything being said on stage was being repeated worldwide in real time?

I think you've identified her necklace.

Russ

Posted by: Paul Emery | 27 September 2016 at 03:20 PM

Most likely it was a heads-up from Wikileaks. Trump's advisor with the Russian contacts was fired. That said, I have to agree with fish, it was more likely was a government insider. Many of the DNC IT Staff have been killed. I wonder why? Some shot in the back as they walked down the street.

Walt

Gotta love Hillary demanding fact checking of Trump. Now that the fact checkers have been busy, it's now showing that she is the one full of donkey shit.

Bill Tozer

Russ @ 1:39 pm: I don't rightly know for sure. To be fair to all, I plumb do not know what it is. Could be a wrinkle cornrow. The close up photos of her free hand clutching the podium last night was kinda weird. Boy, she sure has bony fingers when she does "the claw". And when she got surprised by the reporter 2 days ago wearing that full body green jacket during the day in NYC, she put her hand against a big lump around the belly area as she got in the SUV. She looked like she had a piss bag or something under her coat. I don't about you, but when I bend over to get in a vehicle, my first reaction is not to put my hand on the side of my belly when climbing in. Her other hand was doing the boney fingered claw. Probably nothing, but it would be fitting for her to be walking around on the campaign trail with the ever present bag of piss or bodily fluids and drain tubes from a IV bag doing the drip, drip, drip to keep her stamina up, lol.

Ok, back to reality.

https://www.facebook.com/DonaldTrump/photos/a.488852220724.393301.153080620724/10157779138880725/?type=3&theater

https://www.facebook.com/UncleSamsMisguidedChildren.Net/photos/a.169953786533962.1073741830.169676909894983/558530634342940/?type=3&theater

Todd Juvinall

Your link to Newt's article was very helpful. He always has a good read. Trump won, Hillary lost.,

fish

I tell you Hillary should be contacting her lawyers now to sue her circle of advisors for malpractice with Robby Mook as the lead defendant.


"Cooper also asked Machado about reports that she was accused of driving a getaway car from a murder scene soon after the “Miss Universe” pageant.

“There are reports that Trump surrogates tonight have been referencing and been pointing to … about an incident in 1998 in Venezuela where you were accused of driving a getaway car from a murder scene. You were never charged with this. The judge in the case also said you threatened to kill him after he indicted your boyfriend for the attempted murder. I just want to give you a chance to respond these reports,” Cooper said.

Machado responded: “He can say whatever he wants to say. I don’t care. You know, I have my past, of course everybody has a past. And I’m no saint girl. But that is not the point now … (Trump) was really rude with me, he tried to destroy my self esteem. And now I’m a voice in the Latin community. I’m in a great moment in my life and I have a very clear life.


Yeah, don't concern yourself with the attempted murder and all those pornos I made.....we need to discuss my self esteem!

Hats off to her....she is as vapid and shallow as most Americans.....she'll do well in the U.S..


http://www.unz.com/isteve/pro-hillary-beauty-queen-allegation-of-my-involvement-in-attempted-murder-is-not-the-point-now/

Todd Juvinall

Rush exposed a lot of this from Breibart. She did not deny she was involved in a murder attempt and a threat against a Judge. Her broken English is also interesting as Hillary has said the woman is more articulate than Trump. She gained 60 pounds after the title and looked very plump. Trump said she looked like Miss Piggy. Same thing. And her porn career will now be boosted as we get to see a Hugo Chavez Miss Piggy getting it on with a rarely available loaf of bread in a Venezuelan super-market.

Bill Tozer

Last two posts (Mr. Fish and Mr Todd): And she is on the Hillary campaign staff now, lol. In crazy related news, pop star Madonda said she will strip for the camera to show support for Hillary. Ah. It's a bit too late Madonna. 1st, Clinton has lots of other people's money already and doesn't need the cash. 2nd, by the time Madonna turned 50, there remained only a handful of souls on the entire planet that haven't seen Madonna's exposed breasts. She should have left something for imagination. Too late to put that genie back in the bottle.
I'll pass.


Paul Emery

Todays Reuters poll shows Clinton +4. Last week it was Trump +2. Six percent gain for Clinton after the debate. No need to comment further about who won the debate. Nuff said.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/latest_polls/president/

Todd Juvinall

So {Paul, you just blow but the post above? Trump won. On this one he is up 4.

http://cesrusc.org/election/

Paul Emery

The latest National polls since the debate, Reuters, shows Clinton up 6% from the last pre debate polls. Nuff said about who won the debate.

Paul Emery

Oh yeah, the link

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/latest_polls/president/

Paul Emery

The LA link has always shown Trump in the lead. Be Careful Todd, you will jinx the election. It was you who had Romney up by 6 on election day and he lost by 5. You are not a reliable source.

Sorry for the double up on my comment. I thought the original didn't register

fish

It will be okay Paul.....given the overall (and increasing) nitwittery shown by the citizenry I'm sure there will be a politician occupying the White House in January.

Paul Emery

Yup Fish. I'm hoping it's Gary Johnson. There will be a last minute epiphany and we'll vote Libertarian and scrap the major parties once and for all.

Paul Emery

Major upswing for Clinton on Nate Silver. Scroll down and you'll see the upswing since the Debate.
George, all indications are that Trump dropped a stinky one on Monday night big time. I'm sure tomorrow's polls will verify the poop.

This will seal the deal for Clinton in Virginia.

" Former Republican Sen. John Warner endorsed Hillary Clinton on Wednesday, calling her “prepared to be a world leader and the United States president.”

The longtime Virginia senator cast the choice between Clinton and Donald Trump as a dire one for world security, saying he felt “distressed by some of the comments” made by Trump, though he did not speak Trump’s name until the end of his speech, when he said: “Loose lips sink ships. You got that Trump?”

Read more: http://www.politico.com/story/2016/09/john-warner-hillary-clinton-228819#ixzz4LbSnzHvi
Follow us: @politico on Twitter | Politico on Facebook

Paul Emery

Nate Silver Link-Scroll down for a closer look at the Clinton Surge

http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/?ex_cid=rrpromo#now

George Rebane

PaulE 616pm - From your mouth to God's ear. We have an exciting five weeks ahead for all of us. Not being as astute as you about these things, you will have to excuse that I have not made any such knowledgeable predictions ;-)

Todd Juvinall

PAul Emery, the LATimes poll had Hillary up until a couple of weeks ago.

Nate Silver is up and down. Now I think he has lost his touch.

Reuters has always had Hillary in the lead.

Todd Juvinall

On 9/10/2015 LATimes had Hillary up 4. So maybe Paul is not looking too close to the polls?

Todd Juvinall

Who cares if John Warner endorses her? Nobody. He is part of the problem and Paul emery loves those DC political endorsements. What a hoot.

Gregory

Paul Emery, wow, the debate set Trump back to his poll position at 538 as of Sept 25. How can he ever gain that ground back? The day before the day before yesterday. Ancient history.

Well, it also turns out Miss Piggy was under contract to keep her figure as it was on the day of the Miss Universe win for her year as Miss Universe (she didn't, hence the Piggy tag), and has something of a career in hard core porn in the time since, in addition to threatening judges and district attorneys. Hillary needs to pick better Pollyannas.

Gregory

More important, the USC/LA Times Daybreak poll issued this AM has Trump rising again and Hillary flat. They have a mild bump for Trump and nothing for Hillary.
http://cesrusc.org/election/

Tomorrow may be different. That poll gets updated a few minutes after midnight.

Don Bessee

Madam liar liar pantsuits on fire is the gift that keeps on giving. NY POST- State dept. claims in court it missed the pre debate document release because the State Dept. lawyer did not know out to send an attachment on his new smart phone. Was it one of MLLPF's missing 18?
Subjects of the emails in question? THEY SHOW WETHER CLINTON AND HER AIDES WERE TOLD ABOUT THE NEED TO PROTECT CLASSIFIED MATERAL. ;-)

Gregory

Paul, you're zoned in on the wrong 538 page...
http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/?ex_cid=rrpromo#plus

Don Bessee

Did Kapernick just crush the black turnout for MLLPF? " ..it almost seems like there trying to debate who's less racist.' ;-)

Russ

WHAT THE HELL IS THAT?' Hillary Clinton was wearing a mysterious box with wires during TV debate with Trump, conspiracy theorists claim in latest bizarre theory

Eagle-eyed viewers also noticed a clear earpiece attached to the Democrat candidate's ear on Monday night

https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/1868904/hillary-clinton-was-wearing-a-mysterious-box-with-wires-during-tv-debate-with-trump-conspiracy-theorists-claim-in-latest-bizarre-theory/

Photos in the article, you decide, was Hillary getting help from afar?

Bill Tozer

No Russ, Hillary was getting help from the boys with their hands on the buttons from the studio booth, not from afar. :)

This is one of the truest pics I have ever posted, IMHO.

https://www.facebook.com/UncleSamsMisguidedChildren.Net/photos/a.169953786533962.1073741830.169676909894983/559145507614786/?type=3&theater

Gregory

BT, those captioned pics are always on the childish side.

Russ, that's most probably her ear.

Paul, while 538 is finding a large Hillary Won! signal, it isn't evident in the USC/LA Times poll at all. If anything, Trump has found a couple handfuls of voters, and Hillary only one handful of new voters. No big move, no obvious inflection point.

Bill Tozer

Gregory, very true, albeit the words on the pic were deadly serious articulating exactly how if feel. Should of posted under "The Death of Justice" comment stream or whatever it was called. I expect Justice to be a slanted political arm (animal) of any Administration serving at the pleasure of the Prez, but the FBI? Sad state of affairs, but that is how I feel. You just don't like pictures of My Gal. Can't blame you.

BTW, my 6:05am post in the Sandbox is quite unchildish. One out of two ain't bad. I promise to grow up someday if my inner child lets me. :).

George Rebane

Re Hillary's equipment: Could the 'ear piece' be part of a hearing aid? And the lumps under her clothes, could they not be either medical monitoring and/or medicine dispensing devices?

Paul Emery

Gregory

If you follow this link (if the election were held today) you will see Hillary is up 20 points since Monday. Trump won the debate Sure,,,,, %52% on Monday, 72% today

http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/?ex_cid=rrpromo#now

Paul Emery

Also todays polls show Clinton up =1 in the Rasmussen poll . A week ago it was Trump + 5. Six point turnaround in a week. More evidence that Trump won the debate right?

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/latest_polls/president/

Gregory

Apples and apples, not apples and guavas, Paul. Is it the debate or is it the relentless declarations of wins by Hillary's battalion of flying monkeys? I agree with Michael Moore and Newt Gingrich on this one... she won on points, he likely won on what he needed to win in November.

A problem with the "if the election was held today" is that it's not going to be held today, and if there is such a big swing... why wasn't any inkling of it picked up by the USC Dornsife ongoing poll?

538 is, I think, letting its hyperpartisan core get the best of them in the short term.

Gregory

"you will see Hillary is up 20 points since Monday"

Paul, part of this problem may be your innumeracy. That isn't points in the usual sense, that's a small change of the probability their simulations result in a win. 55/45 isn't that much better than 72/28, and Silver, despite his devotion to his craft, is just aching for a Clinton win.

It also does its best to pretend there won't be a worse October surprise for Clinton than Trump, or that announcements of Obamacare premium increases just before the election won't hit hard.

Todd Juvinall

Hopefully this wall of charts comes through. From the LA Times/USC . Hillary has a 10% lump with women but Trump has a 20% with men. He also has 17% of the black vote. Really interesting.

http://cesrusc.org/election/

Gregory

Regarding the lumps under Clinton's pantsuit, I think that's mostly Clinton.

Really, people, I can get this kind of stuff from the Area 51 souvenir stands on US 95.

Todd Juvinall

GeorgeR, I gleaned this from that poll and perhaps you have a more erudite explanation than I. But at the risk of looking dumber than I am, it would seem to me that Trump is doing way better than expected as they use the 2012 Obama victory numbers?

"Each night, Daybreak Poll results are weighted to match demographic characteristics (such as race and gender) from the U.S. Census Current Population Survey, and aligned to the 2012 presidential election outcome using how respondents tell us how they voted in that election. Then the latest results, averages of all of the prior week’s responses, are posted online at https://election.usc.edu and on the LATimes.com Politics site shortly after midnight."

fish

Regarding the lumps under Clinton's pantsuit, I think that's mostly Clinton.

It's obvious isn't it......those are the bumpy edges of her true reptilian outer skin poking through the skin of the "glamour" in which she is currently residing.

Russ

Lefties vote for TRUMP!

BuzzFeed recently published a presidential preference poll for their readership to take part in. A day or so later, they felt the need to “update” it because they felt the results “no longer accurately reflects the opinions of real people.”

Take three guesses as to what the results were showing.

Polls are something that many media outlets do. They're a quick thing that will catch people’s attention during a heated presidential cycle and will hopefully get the public to click on the outlet's website. Undoubtedly, BuzzFeed also did this figuring that the “poll” would have a strong showing for Hillary Clinton, showing given the site's tendency to openly criticize her opponent.

97% of the Votes were for Trump?

http://www.mrctv.org/blog/buzzfeed-hilariously-updates-own-online-poll-due-huge-trump-showing

These online polls are not scientific polls, but who can explain the huge disparity in a mostly lefty audience.

Todd Juvinall

Watching the news programs and even FOX today makes me realize how out of touch they all are with the American people. They think this Venezuelan babe is going to have some impact. I say, NOPE. No one is talking about it except the talking heads. Americans are concerned about jobs. Simple as that.

Gregory

Regarding Ms. Machado (aka Miss Piggy), she's a beautiful woman who at one time held a job for a year that required her to fit in the same dress she fit in at the beginning. Stewardesses, back in the bad old days of "Coffee, Tea or Me", were also held to strict weight and age standards because they were expected to be hot and ready for the next time a Bond, James Bond was a passenger. Airlines were selling sex appeal. Well, that went by the wayside when the point was made that those purely cosmetic features really had nothing to do with the actual performance of the job, primarily performing the safety features Kabuki at the beginning of the flight, serving drinks, and killing a minimum of passengers if a crash occurs.

The difference between a stewardess and Miss Universe... is that the only real job function of Miss Universe is keeping the hotness of that day when she won. Beauty Contest?

Oh, and for this Muppets fan, Miss Piggy has always had a positive impact. I mean, that's Kermit's sweetie, right?

Here's something for Paul... 538 polls plus and RCP electoral, no toss ups agree except for two states... RCP has Colorado leaning Trump, 538 has Florida leaning Clinton.

If they both go Trump, he gets 275 and wins... and Florida has been going back and forth.

Paul Emery

Yes Gregory RCP has Trump up .5% in Colorado but those are last weeks poll before the debate. Lets check in on this next week when the new polls are out.
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/co/colorado_trump_vs_clinton_vs_johnson_vs_stein-5974.html

By the way what documentation do you have that Nate Silver is " despite his devotion to his craft, is just aching for a Clinton win."

Where does that assumption come from?


Gregory

Paul, that "20 points" you were crowing about was just two weeks of gains, and the USC Daybreak poll, using data of the last few days... shows just a little movement mostly for Trump. I think your druthers are motivating you more than just a little.

Regarding Silver's druthers... Shirley, you jest!

Paul Emery

I don't know grizzly about silvers preference show me something that will support your view

Paul Emery

Should have read I don't know anything .........

Paul Emery

The 20 points up for Hillary was from Silvers odds based on if the election were held today. It's compared to last week. Follow the link and you'll agree with me.

Just a reminder that Nate Silver picked all 50 states correctly in 2012 and 49 out of 50 in 08 so I think his predictions are notable. If you want to pick a loser follow Todds picks. He was double digets off in both elections.

Gregory

Paul, you know a lot, but it takes you longer to digest reality than some others. It's really good you got past that "It's all over, the GOP needs to find a replacement while there's still time" phase of yours of a few weeks ago... You'll be fine, just chill out and let reality happen. I'll buy you a beer at the Gary Johnson consolation apres election party.

Paul Emery

oh yeah

http://mashable.com/2012/11/07/nate-silver-wins/#Gg9YvT2vTaqa

Gregory

Ah, yes, living in the past. Silver hit a grand slam by applying the lessons learned for Obama take 1 and used those models for Obama take 2. Those models may or may not hold for the Donald v. Hillary. Time will tell.

Russ

Paul, you need to recalibrate your faith in Silver's models. Most recently he was sure that Trump would never be the GOP nominee. The models based on the past will not work this time. We are dealing with a movement, not a political campaign in the traditional sense. If he continues down the current path of thinking, Silver will be lucky to get 49% of the states right. On the other hand, if he adjusts his bayesian models with some recognition of how unlikable Clinton is and how strong Trumpism is he may improve his score. His biggest challenge is to overcome his unconscious liberal biases. Remember he is a global warmer, who refused to look at the science that was contrary to his point of view. He swallowed Al Gore's crap science and none of Gore's climate predictions have come true, Arctic is not ice-free, severe weather is not increasing, sea level rise is not accelerating, etc.. Models with bad data produces garbage results. Of course, only time will tell. It will be interesting to track Silvers's results, provide a little interest to a very dull campaign.

Paul Emery

you know Russ I'm kind of in agreement with you with most of what you say . I see no inherent value though in silver using his bias when making his predictions because his ability to correctly predict things is what makes him successful and wealthy and why he gets lots of good press and good notices. Yes Hillary is unlikable but Trump is more unlikable At best it's kind of an even push on that matter You are correct though in saying that Trump is head of a movement but nobody is quite sure what that movement means It's certainly not a conservative movement It's certainly not a Republican movement His opposition to the war in Iraq is a profound rebuttal of the Bush administration and his opposition to NAFTA And the TPP are contrary to most of the members of the Republican Party in the house and senate. NAFTA of course was a bush 1 proposal that Clinton signed onto and finished off The TPP was widely supported by both Republicans and Democrats and Obama

One of the things that has taken some support away from Hillary was Gary Johnson but he seems to be missing in action and has this problem of having a brain fart whenever and somebody asked him specific questions. I predict he will start losing support because he's really turned out to be a dud in this campaign A good percentage of that support me go back to Hillary where it came from to begin with Too bad I'm a libertarian party supporter but it doesn't look very good for old Gary Also there is no Ralph Nader in the election this time to further dilute the Democrats so you have a movement with a very flawed candidate who's absolutely not cool in anyway when under pressure and is unable to take the best advice from his handlers We should know by the middle of next week what kind of violence Hillary will get Doodoo trumps terrible performance in the debate Stay tuned.

Paul Emery

Should have read will know next week what kind of bounce Hillary will be getting from trumps terrible debate performance Waste recognition has lots of flaws and it's hard to edit this stuff Nice chatting with you Russ

Paul Emery

Also Russ I know nothing about silvers connection with Al gore he wasn't even involved in politics at the time did his movie can you steer me in some direction that might verify your opinion

Bregory

Usc poll just out... bump for Trump a'gin... plus 5.6% over Clinton.

BradC

Re: tax returns

https://www.instagram.com/p/BK2UIFFgDF7/

fish

Ya know this is why I've already won this election season......Trump wins and they find Hillarys pickled corpse a few weeks later having been denied that one thing that she values above everything else (wonder what Dr. Phil what say about that ehh jeffy?). She wins and we can look forward to a Clinton with even more baggage than her "Pedophile Island" frequent flier miles husband but with virtually none of the goodwill shown towards him by a fellatial Pelline like sycophantic press corps. Given the nature of her corruption I imagine the MSM will fall out of love fairly quickly after she defeats Trump and will probably turn on her in an attempt to salvage a shred more dignity than the back alley $5 blowjob offering whores that they constantly show themselves to be!

Couple this with a boatload what appear to be "Fat Menopausal Lady" health problems and she'll need to be a tyrant just to stay out of the entire news cycle!

Looking forward to the brief but intense reign of Darth Menopause!


State Department attorneys admitted Wednesday that they had lost copies of a 2012 email between Jake Sullivan, a top former aide to Hillary Clinton, and an employee of the Clinton Foundation.

The email contained an attachment memo about Greek bonds — a significant detail given the heavy investments Clinton’s son-in-law, Marc Mezvinsky, was making in the Greek economic recovery during that same period.

Chelsea Clinton, Mezvinsky’s wife, is a board member at the Clinton Foundation. The fact that one of Clinton’s closest aides shared insider information about the economic climate in Greece with the foundation — just one year after Mezvinsky and fellow Goldman Sachs alum founded a hedge fund that operated primarily by placing bets on international economic trends — raises questions about the many potential conflicts of interest that could have arisen from the Clintons’ web of connections.


http://www.washingtonexaminer.com/the-clintons-big-fat-greek-bond-wedding/article/2603174

BradC

More news on the wannabe tweeter-in-chief,

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/donald-trump-pleading-the-fifth_us_57ed79dee4b024a52d2de46d?ncid=fcbklnkushpmg00000063

Paul Emery

Yeah Brad the hypocrisy of this man is beyond belief, Quoting from your link

"On Wednesday, Trump likened anyone who takes the Fifth to a criminal. “So there are five of them taking the Fifth Amendment, like you see on the mob, right?” he said at another rally in Iowa, inflating the number by two. “The mob takes the Fifth Amendment. If you’re innocent, why are you taking the Fifth Amendment?”

In the samr article it was noted how many times he took the 5th in refusing to answer questions about his infidelity during his divorce trial
"As part of the couple’s divorce proceedings, Ivana Trump’s lawyers asked him under oath about his dealings with other women and whether he had been faithful to his wife.

Instead of answering, Donald Trump invoked his Fifth Amendment rights against self-incrimination. Over the course of five depositions that summer, he was asked approximately 100 questions related to marital infidelity. He pleaded the Fifth on 97 of them.

“Donald preaches about his devotion to the Second Amendment, but it was the Fifth Amendment that was his favorite when he was deposed in the divorce with Ivana,” wrote biographer Wayne Barrett in his 1992 book, Trump: The Greatest Show on Earth. A New Jersey Division of Gaming Enforcement report later verified Barrett’s reporting on those depositions, which are still sealed.

For Trump, taking the Fifth seemed to work out well. He later bragged that he managed to settle the divorce without giving his first wife a penny more than required by the prenuptial agreement."

Todd Juvinall

Oh my, Paul Emery and Brad C have quite the scoop! Trump uses the Fifth to avoid admitting to adultery! Oh my! Of course that was a real important national security thing to do. Sort of compares to the Hillary staff taking the Fifth last month for the Email server. OK, got it. And these two locals complain about the state of politics and its levels. Amazing.No wonder Emery supports the pothead Johnson.

fish

Posted by: Paul Emery | 30 September 2016 at 09:36 AM

He later bragged that he managed to settle the divorce without giving his first wife a penny more than required by the prenuptial agreement."


....and there's a problem with that?

Gregory

I thought HC didn't plead the fifth, she pleaded she'd hit her head and didn't remember.

No, there is no moral equivalency between multiple staffers pleading the fifth multiple times to the FBI during a criminal investigation into the handling of some of the most classified information kept by the US, and not talking candidly at an ugly divorce proceeding.

Also, not paying a penny more than what a prenuptual agreement specified seems to me to be the entire point of a prenup.

Gregory

I thought HC didn't plead the fifth, she pleaded she'd hit her head and didn't remember.

No, there is no moral equivalency between multiple staffers pleading the fifth multiple times to the FBI during a criminal investigation into the handling of some of the most classified information kept by the US, and not talking candidly at an ugly divorce proceeding.

Also, not paying a penny more than what a prenuptual agreement specified seems to me to be the entire point of a prenup.

Paul Emery

Probably the pre-nup between the Trumps would be void in cases of infidelity or abuse. If true then Trump took the 5th to avoid further liability. He is the last person who should brag about his marital sanctity

fish

Posted by: Paul Emery | 30 September 2016 at 11:33 AM

Was the Trump pre-nup voided?

fish

More hypocrisy....progressive style!



Democrats object to Chick-fil-A voter registration drive


http://web.tampabay.com/news/politics/democrats-object-to-chick-fil-a-voter-registration-drive/2295668


Fox Searchlight Launches Voter Registration Drive for ‘Birth of a Nation’ Screenings


http://variety.com/2016/film/news/birth-nation-fox-searchlight-voter-registration-1201870207/

Todd Juvinall

Gotta gove Paul Emery credit as a "journalist". He just makes it up. Produce his prenup or shut your face. Spreading lies is what you do.

fish

Posted by: Todd Juvinall | 30 September 2016 at 12:04 PM

Merely speculation on his part Todd. Maybe it was voided and he can produce evidence in support of his claim.

Bill Tozer

Democrat pollster and all around sage Pat Cadell always puts me at ease when I read him.

http://www.breitbart.com/radio/2016/09/29/pat-caddell-election-headed-toward-armageddon-establishment-fights-hold-onto-power-privilege-all-costs/

Get ready for the biggest baddest barrage from the Marxists, the Globalists, Dr. Evil, every international Wall Street guru, the media, Bubba, Miss Universite last century, Barrack, etc, etc, coming down on our Deplorable heads. Incoming. Like nothing seen before in the history of mankind. Did notice print made its move over the last couple of days. USA Today and those kind of fishwrappers. Arizona Republic? Well, it's print media's turn to reconcile voting for Hillary with their progressive ideals and agenda. Oh, that will ready change our incorrigible minds, lol

One debate and the my Leftist comrades finally crawl back out from the primordial ooze. They are all fired up after seeing Hillary give them a glimmer of light at the end of the tunnel. Yep, My Gal got a 4 point bump in Fla, moved the needle in Penn (or was that Michigan?) and is back in NH, the Granite State. Bernie creamed My Gal in the NH primary 61-39, or was it 62-38? The Granite State also had a record number of people vote in the R primary. Notice that Bernie quit the Dem party and now is back to being Senator Sanders (I, VT). Back where he belongs and all is well. Hillary won a debate!! Pop the champagne corks. Life is goooood. Yeah, right.

Love to see our friends come back from their depression foaming at the mouth and chopping at the bit. They are ready and smell victory! Love to see their spirits soar high because it makes that beautiful thud sound when they fall back to cruel reality at a very rate of speed. If Hillary ever gets a bounce again, it will be a dead cat bounce....

Gregory

Bill Clinton's lying under oath, a perjury, in a sexual harassment suit (Governor Clinton demanded oral sex from Paula Jones, a state employee) was mischaracterized as "lying about sex" at the time. What Trump seems to have done in a civil (or was it uncivil) divorce proceeding is to refuse to lie about sex by shutting up.

Which is the better path?

Bill the sexual predator chose to lie about getting Lewinskies from a subordinate in the White House during a sexual harassment case about demanding a Lewinsky from a Jones who didn't want her boss' boss' boss' Arkansauce as a condiment at the end of a long work day. Bill could have chosen to shut up, but chose to lie instead because he didn't want to intimate that he had been getting Lewinskies in the White House.

By not lying, Trump in essence said "I won't deny screwing around. Next question.".

Regarding Paul's out of thin air guess that the prenup was voided in the case of infidelity, I'm going to guess that wife #1 had already proven that well known secret and if that was all that was between Wife One and even more riches, I suspect her lawyer would have had that sewn up before going to court.

fish

This will buoy your spirits Paul......


http://www.sfgate.com/nation/article/Clinton-Sanders-campaign-together-to-draw-9392859.php


Wow Ol Bernie couldn't snap to attention any quicker to support a woman who embodies every single negative thing that he railed against during his campaign. It's like I said to poor soft headed Ol Ben during some discussion long past.....they really used to make socialists of sterner stuff.....Sanders folded like a cheap suit! ;-)

Bill Tozer

Good news Gregory. Detroit News endorsed Gary Johnson.

Media tickled pink. People waiting in line to see Hillary. Buses arrived. The whole Dem delegation and state lawmakers are there. She is catching fire! No news on the crowd size, excluding a few Deplorables chanting "Lock Her Up" awaiting her arrival.

No mention of crowd size? Odd. The newly remodeled intimate Sunshine Theather in Fort Piece, Fla seats 1,200 according to their website. Hillary spoke for 25 minutes and almost made it through that grueling 25 minutes without coughing. Almost. Then she had to steady herself before descending 4 stairs. Wow. I am impressed.

Todd Juvinall

We should hold this up as the gold standard for debates.

http://sierradragonsbreathe.blogspot.com/2016/09/abraham-lincolns-speech-on-slavery-from.html

Gregory

Gary Johnson again got gotcha'd on MSNBC, Chris Matthews demanding to know the name of a foreign leader who he admired. He couldn't cough up a name a couple days ago.

In a great comeback the next day, he stated after thinking for a day he still couldn't name a foreign leader that he admired. I thought for awhile and came up with Winston Churchill and Golda Meir, both made more venerable by being dead for decades. In reality, both had their warts.

Favorite Churchill quote (off the top of my head and by memory): Never has so much, been owed by so many, to so few (thanking the mostly British pilots of the Battle of Britain after repelling the Luftwaffe).

Favorite Meir utterance... Peace will come when the Arabs will love their children more than they hate us.

Bill Tozer

That's my favorite Meir quote as well. She had a some good ones.

My favorite Hillary quote so far is "Why aren't I 50 points ahead you may ask?" No need to ask.

http://talkingpointsmemo.com/livewire/new-trump-ad-clinton-quotes

Gregory

Just for hysterical reference... perhaps the greatest short speech ever made by a foreign leader, Churchill in 1940
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Y0t-RqjMH-A

Some quotes:
I am easily satisfied with the very best.

Lady Nancy Astor: Winston, if you were my husband, I'd poison your tea. Churchill: Nancy, if I were your husband, I'd drink it.

I may be drunk, Miss, but in the morning I will be sober and you will still be ugly.

Courage is what it takes to stand up and speak; courage is also what it takes to sit down and listen.

Never give in, never give in, never; never; never; never - in nothing, great or small, large or petty - never give in except to convictions of honor and good sense

If this is a blessing, it is certainly very well disguised.

Courage is going from failure to failure without losing enthusiasm.

A pessimist sees the difficulty in every opportunity; an optimist sees the opportunity in every difficulty.

We are masters of the unsaid words, but slaves of those we let slip out.

There are a terrible lot of lies going about the world, and the worst of it is that half of them are true.

You have enemies? Good. That means you've stood up for something, sometime in your life.

Mr. Attlee is a very modest man. Indeed he has a lot to be modest about.

History will be kind to me for I intend to write it.

The price of greatness is responsibility.

fish

Speaking of Old School Socialists.......


"I first grasped what Stalinist life was like during a course I took with Wolfgang Leonhard, the child of German communists who was brought up in the ussr, defected to Yugoslavia, and wound up teaching Russian history at Yale. His autobiography, Child of the Revolution, tells a story, set during the Great Purges, about some families in a communal apartment who are awakened at 4 a.m. (the usual time for arrests) by a peremptory banging at the door. Finally one old man, with less life left to lose, answers, disappears into the corridor, and at last returns. “Comrades, relax!” he explains. “The house is on fire!”


http://www.newcriterion.com/articles.cfm/The-house-is-on-fire--8466

When it came to communicating political realities they really knew how to "break some eggs"!

George Rebane

Forgotten member of Parliament, 'Sir, may you either hang or die of a dreaded disease!'
Churchill, 'That sir, depends on whether I embrace your principles or your mistress.'

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