Rebane's Ruminations

Why Reason Fails

George Rebane

"It ain't what you don't know that worries me, it's what you know that ain't so."  Will Rogers

We are often taught that parties can always settle their differences by engaging in a reasoned dialogue – ‘Come, let us reason together.’  But the evidence, today available in thousands of comment threads on more thousands of blogs and online media outlets, seems to contradict such hopeful paths to resolution.  Self-referentially I can say that there is no reasonable basis for such a conclusion.  It’s the word ‘always’ that becomes the bugaboo, and gives lie to the frequent goal and noble sentiment.  Fisher and Ury of the Harvard Negotiation Project acknowledged this failure in their landmark essay Getting to Yes (1981).

Recently this point was driven home by Mr. Steven Frisch, a RR reader and commenter of the liberal persuasion.  He posted two magnificent and voluminous ripostes (here and here) wherein he seeks to destroy my motive and method for the offered commentaries.  As I studied his comments in preparation for a reply, it became clear that his presumably reasoned compositions belonged to a class that was inaccessible to me (and perhaps others).  To contend with his assertions and accusations on a point-by-point basis would be a fruitless effort.  From my perch, his reasoning was insane and would give no purchase for me to attempt a reply.  Let me explain.

Reverend Bayes and the Muslim

George Rebane

The Ft Hood shootings have left me shocked, saddened, and dismayed.  But perhaps not in the way most of the country is reacting to this terrible news tonight from Texas.  What is now known is that Major Malik Nadal Hasan, an Army psychiatrist, methodically opened fire with two handguns in a troop processing hall where he killed twelve soldiers and wounded 31 more before being shot himself.  He will survive.

It took some hours for the Army and media to reveal that the Major was a Muslim, during which hours the man’s name was known but not revealed.  Then it came to light that the killer (I don’t have to use any of this ‘alleged’ stuff to belabor the known and verified) was born and raised here in an American Muslim family.  He was commissioned through the Virginia Tech ROTC program and seemed to all outside observers to be flying hot, true, and normal in the progress of his Army career.   Normal, that is, until he began to voice Islamic sentiments to his colleagues about American foreign policy and military involvement in Iraq and Afghanistan.  And then he decided to sacrifice himself as the assassin of unsuspecting innocents he had sworn to defend with his life.

How do I chew and digest all this information in light of what I have learned, and what has been reported to us about the resurgence of radicalized militant Islam and its global objectives?  I must look at it through the only lens I have.  For good or ill, I am a child, student, and defender of western civilization.  It’s in my double helix.

I also spent my turn manning the ramparts of our country (First Lieutenant, Artillery, retired), and then more years designing its weapons of war.  This experience has made a lasting impression on me and others similarly blessed.  It served to grind my lens.

The Reverend Thomas Bayes (1702 - 1761) is best remembered for giving mankind the means to correctly incorporate new and uncertain observations/knowledge into an existing belief system.  Today the Bayes Theorem underpins everything from moon landings, GPS, medical technology, worldwide communications, financial investments, internet search, optimal emergency response strategies, genetic engineering, interpretation of data, diagnostics, automated reasoning (artificial intelligence), and more areas than can be enumerated here.  Without Bayes, we would not recognize our world.

Bayesian analysis also supports enquiries into such problems as ‘given the data from the Ft Hood shootings, how should we deal with Muslims in our military?’  Unfortunately, our culture has now weaned itself of both the will and wisdom to address defense of culture issues.  We cannot even formulate the question for a discussion in the public media.  It is simply out of the new bounds we have set for ourselves.

Consider this, Major Hasan had no other distinguishing attributes that may have predicted his killing spree, save that he was a discontent Muslim in an advanced 21st century culture, the very existence of which gives lie to most of Islam’s deepest teachings.

Islam is undoubtedly the world’s most powerful religion or belief system.  What other religion today can motivate so many of its adherents to willingly sacrifice themselves with utter finality in the practice of terror against anyone not sharing their specific beliefs?  What is your negotiating basis with someone whose reward is not of this world?  Christians don’t have a leg to stand on, and secular humanists – especially of the politically correct stripe – don’t even understand the problem.

So, here was an American military officer who had taken the most solemn and serious oath to defend his homeland against all enemies, and who appeared engaged in perfectly normal activities that fulfilled that oath.  And then, without warning, he violates that oath in the most terrible and egregious manner.  Is there any possible defense against the recurrence of this scenario?

Depending on what utility we assign to a successful defense, the Reverend Bayes would counsel that we can indeed defend ourselves, not with certainty, but close enough for government work.  But the parade of spread-eagled, white-haired grandmothers at our airport security checkpoints testifies that the good Reverend’s legacy is banished from such enquires, let alone applications, in today’s America.

Our politics will not allow us a reasonable defense.  But docking more freedoms and liberties of the whole, in order to defend against the few, is our government’s forte.  As the perfect trifecta - it addresses the problem, makes everyone aware that government is out there defending us, and quietly ratchets back freedoms that prepare us for the brave new world.  We never even think to look behind the curtain.

A Disconbuberated Boob at the Rood Center

George Rebane

This is a hard post to write.  I have been agonizing since leaving the Board of Supervisors meeting at the Rood Center a little after mid-day.  This was the day when Nevada County’s CFO Joe Christoffel gave his scheduled quarterly report on the county’s fiscal health to a full chamber.   Everyone had come to find out about the county’s significant unfunded pension liabilities.  As announced in these pages (here), Michael McDaniel of SESF gave a short and workmanlike presentation on the pension liabilities which was then followed by Mr. Christoffel’s main event wherein he would cover the county’s position on these liabilities.  This was followed by some Q&A, and we all walked out for the noon recess.  By then my head was spinning.

 

To frame these remarks, let me begin by saying that our county’s leadership and staff are about the best that any citizen, at least of my political leanings and ideology, could expect to have working for them.  Oh, I could pick nits with some of the supes, but as a group they are head and shoulders above damn near any set of politicos you could vote into office these days.  And our staff under CEO Rick Haffey is a first class team.  So what set my head spinning as I scribbled many pages of notes?

Obama’s Nobel (updated 10oct2009)

George Rebane

A “surprised and deeply humbled” President Obama was awarded the Nobel Peace Prize for 2009.  In his response he stated that he does not "view it as a recognition of my own accomplishments," going on to say, "I do not feel that I deserve to be in the company of so many transformative figures that have been honored by this prize,"  We can do naught but share his feelings, and join in his clear and accurate assessment of the award.  From his mouth to God’s ear.

[10oct09 update] I was awakened this morning by an NPR piece on Obama's award that reviewed the many other accomplished winners of this prize.  It ended with Obama intoning the above quote, and then concluded with words almost identical to mine.  There is a lot of controversy over this prize - but from NPR, whoda thought? 

Dollar Destruction Derby

George Rebane

Obama can’t be blamed for starting the destruction of the dollar, but he will get a lot of credit for hastening its downfall.  Major world powers have recently begun secret meetings to move oil (and other energy commodities) off the dollar bandwagon.  Why?  Because, as RR readers have been aware for some time, the US government has no choice but to inflate our fiat money out of existence.  We are broke and owe our creditors debts and our citizens huge entitlements denominated in dollars.  There is simply no other way to pay off the putative amounts - more than $120 trillion and counting - than to print or 'monetarily ease' the dollar into oblivion.

The Independent of Great Britain reports -

In the most profound financial change in recent Middle East history, Gulf Arabs are planning – along with China, Russia, Japan and France – to end dollar dealings for oil, moving instead to a basket of currencies including the Japanese yen and Chinese yuan, the euro, gold and a new, unified currency planned for nations in the Gulf Co-operation Council, including Saudi Arabia, Abu Dhabi, Kuwait and Qatar.
 
Secret meetings have already been held by finance ministers and central bank governors in Russia, China, Japan and Brazil to work on the scheme, which will mean that oil will no longer be priced in dollars.

The target date for the transition is reported to be 2018.  Stand by for the vehement denials that will confirm the report.

Canned Questions, Succinct Answers

George Rebane

 
‘Blown away’ is an appropriate description of my reaction to the twenty-five minutes the President spent with General McChrystal in Copenhagen aboard Air Force One.  Here the Community Organizer in Chief is in Copenhagen as part of the Three Egos for Chicago presentation, and the General has flown thousands of miles out of theater to meet with Admiral Mike Mullen in Europe to discuss Afghanistan - it makes all the sense in the world for the President and his hand-picked general to meet and discuss what Obama has always called the “important” and “critical” war to secure America against Islamic terrorists.

So McChrystal flies to Copenhagen to touch base with the Commander-in-Chief, deliver his critical message about new Afghanistan strategy and troop levels required, and answer any questions that his boss would have.  And they spend only twenty-five minutes together.

To me this was extraordinarily revealing.  It turns out the junior birdman from Chicago and the career military man had nothing to talk about.  Obama has never been in the military or in any activity remotely connected with the military.  His knowledge of history, national projection of power, and war is book learning, if that.  He does not know of family separations, of partings that may be final.  His experience is totally local and political, and it ends where the pavement ends. 

Obama most likely had a few politically important ‘Afghanistan questions’ shoved in his shorts by his handlers.  He met the general on AF-1, asked his questions, to which the general gave the appropriate clear, concise, and complete answers - and the interview was over.

A real President would have taken the opportunity of the first meeting with his war theater commander to do more than the bare formalities.  Hell, the ‘opening prayer’ for two guys like that, intent on serving the country, would have taken more than 25 minutes.  That time would have served to get to know a little bit about each other over a freshly opened bottle of Maker’s Mark.  Then they would have spent and hour or two talking about the mid-east, about Iran and Pakistan that border Afghanistan, about the good and the bad of Iraq.  The general is plumb full of good information and assessments of what has worked, and, more importantly, what hasn’t in that region of historical disasters for western nations.  Twenty-five goddam minutes!!

As President, Obama could have come back fully briefed on the situation in the mid-east instead of getting succinct answers to some quick canned questions.  I mean, the damned interview was carried on as if they were in the Red Carpet Room of United Airlines and someone was rushing to catch a flight.  The last I looked, AF-1 was not a scheduled carrier.  That airplane takes off and flies at the pleasure of the President of the United States of America.

Junior Birdman at the Helm

George Rebane

This supposed fresh start in Geneva only gives them new legitimacy, and new hope that they can have their bomb and enhanced global standing too.  ('Springtime for Mullahs' 2oct09 WSJ)

Hot off the press – subsequent to President Obama’s flight to Copenhagen and personal appeal to the IOC on behalf of Chicago, that city was the first eliminated from the running for the 2016 Olympics.

After eight months in office this man has now shown himself to be ignorant, incompetent, indecisive, and apologetic for all things American.  In his behalf, I can confidently conclude that he has attempted to do everything that he promised while campaigning, and we have every reason to believe that neither his energies nor direction will be diverted during the remainder of his term.

The latest significant poke in the eye, unnoticed by the MSM (aka Mostly Sleeping Media), was by the Iranian mullahs and Ahmedinejad in the multi-national Geneva talks yesterday.  Obama’s delineation of his celebrated “line in the sand” did not even include the word ‘sanctions’ for non-compliance to past agreements and current demands about the recently revealed nuclear facility in Qom.  As pointed out by the pre-eminent commercial intelligence analysis outfit Stratfor –

According to European foreign policy chief Javier Solana, the meeting’s host, Iran will allow inspectors from the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) access to its heretofore secret enrichment site near Qom within two weeks. This is not much of a concession. As a signatory to the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty (NPT), Iran is treaty-bound to allow such inspections (just as all other signatories, including the United States and Russia, are).

In exchange, the P-5+1 powers agreed to allow Iran to transfer small amounts of low-enriched uranium — typically enriched to 3-5 percent so that it can be used in a nuclear power reactor — to a third country for additional enrichment to the approximately 20 percent fissile mix required for the creation of medical isotopes. That additionally enriched uranium would then be imported back to Iran for medical use (Enrichment of 90 percent or more is required for the creation of a nuclear weapon.) Although on paper this seems like a small concession, it implicitly gives Iran the right to enrich uranium. This is guaranteed legally by the NPT, but only in exchange for full cooperation in inspections. Iran’s unwillingness to cooperate is the root of what has brought us to this point, so the P-5+1’s willingness to take Iran at its word is no small step.

So Iran took another page out of North Korea’s playbook and ropa-doped us by agreeing again to do something that they had already agreed to do years ago - not that they will do it, or that the IAEA will confirm any of these promises.  (We recall that the IAEA are the UN clowns whose incompetence shielded Iran’s first nuclear weapons program for over a decade until it was revealed by an Iranian dissident group.)  Ahmedinejad will no doubt be the recipient of this year’s coveted Kim Il Jong Prize for bamboozling the west.  And for his part, Obama will be looking forward to a nice thank you note from Rio de Janeiro for his efforts in Copenhagen.

Meanwhile, he will have the next two weeks to find some more space in the sandbox in which to draw another line without getting his finger smelly. 

A Week on Obama’s Watch

George Rebane

The past week is now folded into the pages of history.  Iran pre-empted Obama’s revelation that it had another major facility for producing nuclear materials for “peaceful uses”.  In response, our National Naif assembled his counterparts from Britain and France to dutifully scribble yet one more line in the sand, while the imams in Teheran worry about getting double hernias from laughing their butts off.

Our progressives applauded this stroke of brilliant coalition building against Iran - an ability, they claim, evaded Bush2.  At the same time Israel is putting finishing touches on its plan take out as much of Iran’s WMD capability as it can with its F-15s and F-16s, while working feverishly to complete its Jericho3 long range missile that can reach all parts of Iran.  Meanwhile, the price of oil and gold yawned.  I feel safer already.

Husband Chair

George Rebane

This is actually a little nudge toward economic recovery during hard times (Hat tip to Cass Sunstein, Obama’s Nudge Czar).  This weekend Jo Ann and I are celebrating the evening we first met fifty years ago as sorority/fraternity pledges at UCLA.  What happened there and afterwards is another story, but yesterday we decided to go to town and check out Nevada City’s ‘Sidewalk Sale’.  I think she had it all planned, because pretty soon we wound up in one of our fine jewelry stores on Broad Street.

As she started inspecting all the great looking inventory, most of it made right there by the owner/jeweler, my mind wandered quickly - my body followed.  Soon I had gawked at ‘everything’ in the store, and was studying the wall hangings for the third time, and then looked at my watch, and then I thought about just dragging her out of the store.  I was bored.

Now, heads-up merchants know this little scenario, and have provided a cost-effective remedy that will keep the wayward husband from screwing up the likelihood of a sale.  They put in a comfortable armchair or two, and some even have within reach a few appropriate magazines – oh, you know, past issues of ‘Guns and Grenades’, ‘Popular Mechanics’, ‘Broads and Boobs’ (aka Victoria’s Secret catalog or its moral equivalent), … .  And before you know it, she comes back with ‘How does this look on me?’ or better, ‘Honey, look what I bought.’

Irving Kristol, RIP

George Rebane

Irving Kristol, the father of neo-conservatism and celebrated observer of our political progress, died yesterday at the age of 89.  His legacy has informed many of us and focused the ire of many more over six decades of public punditry and wordsmithing.  The following excerpt is from one of his regular articles - Income Inequality Without Class Conflict, Dec. 18, 1997 - that appeared in the WSJ.

It is often said that capitalism—that is, a market economy—is morally obnoxious because its "trickle-down economics" inevitably creates inequality of income and wealth. Now it is certainly true that "trickle-down economics" has that effect. It is also true, however, that if you want economic growth and greater affluence for all, there is simply no alternative to "trickle-down economics," which is just another name for growth economics.

The world has yet to see a successful version of "trickle-up economics," an egalitarian society in which the state ensures that the fruits of economic growth are universally and equally shared. The trouble with this idea—it is, of course, the socialist ideal—is that it does not produce those fruits in the first place. Economic growth is promoted by entrepreneurs and innovators, whose ambitions, when realized, create inequality. No one with any knowledge of human nature can expect such people not to want to be relatively rich, and if they are too long frustrated they will cease to be productive. Nor can the state substitute for them, because the state simply cannot engage in the "creative destruction" that is an essential aspect of innovation. The state cannot and should not be a risk-taking institution, since it is politically impossible for any state to cope with the inevitable bankruptcies associated with economic risk taking.