This little monograph is the most recent in the series to explain Bayesian reasoning to the non-technical (but otherwise intelligent) reader, and will serve as a reference for future posts. Some previous efforts in this direction can be found here and here. In the sequel we repeat the exercise graphically without resorting to a rigorous development using equations.
Understanding Bayesian reasoning is important because of its place in all of our lives. Today it is marbled into literally every facet of what we do, what is done to us, how we handle uncertainty (e.g. risk), and how we attempt to reason. Bayesian methods underlie and enable countless technologies that range all the way from providing the water out of your faucet, the manufacture of your car, how your 401K is invested, to the detection of dreaded diseases. In the last thirty years Bayesian reasoning has literally become ubiquitous in all areas save demagoguery, journalism, law, and politics. The major effort of protagonists in those arenas is to hide and/or deny Bayesian reasoning to their audiences.