Rebane's Ruminations

Knowledge Engines

George Rebane

Part of our rush toward Singularity involves the web becoming ‘smarter’.  In case you haven’t noticed, search engine technologies are rapidly evolving from providing ‘information’ to becoming so-called knowledge engines.  Wolfram Alpha was an early one into this functionality, and it is now being joined by Google’s Knowledge Graph Microsoft will soon upgrade its Bing to provide the same type of functionality.

My friend Dr Larry Press reports on Knowledge Graph here.  And this is a short video that gives you an idea of all this before you dive into the details.

As evident from my past posts on the topic, I’m looking forward to IBM offering its Watson technology on a broad basis to websites.  To do that though will require the installation of what I’d call server cities instead of server farms.  Today web related utilities already consume more than 5% of our electrical capacity.  With all of us starting to use Watson-derived knowledge engines will make the country’s lights dim.

 

Singularity Signposts - The Coming Virtual Cloud

George Rebane

Today it is very difficult to reconfigure networks because you have to deal with hardwired components like routers, switches, and servers which have been manufactured by network suppliers like Cisco and Juniper to handle the stream of data packets in their own specific ways.  Modifying a network is a nightmare of hardware reconfiguration and clumsy/limited system programming.  Today network hardware operators are a highly paid group of technicians doing such things that few people understand.

The response to this growing friction in developing new networks with expanded capabilities comes from a Silicon Valley company called Nicira.  The company is built on the technology out of the 2007 PhD dissertation of its CTO Martin Casado.  Dr Casado invented a better way to ‘program networks’ on existing or cobbled together cheaper hardware.   These new architectures will be virtual networks operating virtual servers and using virtual storage on arbitrary and/or existing hardware configurations within an enterprise or out in the internet cloud.

The big deal is that the virtual networks - their configuration and operation - are totally under software control, and that means they can be quickly reconfigured (on the fly); and with even more smarts built in, they can reconfigure themselves to improve performance, be more facile in managing data, and interfacing with all kinds of other systems on the periphery of the network.  The online Wired has a good article on all this here.  Nicira is already working with some very big outfits in implementing this next phase of network technology.

To me the excitement here is that such reprogrammable virtual networks take us a giant step closer to what I believe is the most likely candidate for the Singularity event that I have described before in these pages.  And that is when the cloud spontaneously ‘wakes up’ and becomes sentient.  Dynamic reprogramming of networks to implement new processing algorithms, new data handling techniques, and whole new computing paradigms (mimicking human brain structures?) is a required capability for this event to happen.  Virtualizing networks will hasten the day when it says, ‘I’m here.’

Super-Turing Computation is Coming

George Rebane

Kurzweil reports that computer scientist Dr Hava Siegelmann (Univ of Mass, Amherst) “is translating her 1993 discovery of what she has dubbed 'super-Turing' computation into an adaptable computational system that learns and evolves, using input from the environment in a way much more like our brains do than classic Turing-type computers."

"This model is inspired by the brain.  It is a mathematical formulation of the brain’s neural networks with their adaptive abilities. The authors show that when the model is installed in an environment offering constant sensory stimuli like the real world, and when all stimulus-response pairs are considered over the machine’s lifetime, the Super Turing model yields an exponentially greater repertoire of behaviors than the classical computer or Turing model. They demonstrate that the Super-Turing model is superior for human-like tasks and learning.”  (my italics)

This presumably is the next iteration to brain-like machines like those based temporal hierarchical memory (THM, pdf) modules that were introduced by Jeff Hawkins (here) and now under development.  The key ingredient to both machines is their ability to learn from data and their environment, and then solve problems and/or act on what they have learned.  Both super-Turing and THM computation promise quantum leaps in performance beyond IBM’s impressive Watson genre of super-computers (here)

The introduction and application of such machines is just the next step toward the Singularity event itself.  It will be of great interest to see toward what applications these new AIs will be directed.  The only sure thing is that more educated humans will feel their pressure and presence in the workplace.

TechForum2012 inaugurates a new community event

George Rebane

This afternoon TechForum2012 passed into history as a wonderfully successful new type of luncheon speaker series focusing on the accelerating technologies that will affect all of us in how we work, play, learn, live long, and prosper.  The event was sponsored by the Sierra Economics and Science Foundation to support its ongoing and expanding merit scholarship program built around its flagship annual TechTest, now in its sixth year.

It was heartening to see the community join in to support this fundraiser to encourage Nevada County’s young people to choose careers in science, technology, engineering, and mathematics (STEM).  America’s decline in STEM qualified workers has put our country at risk, and we believe that grass roots programs such as these developed and funded by SESF are a hopeful start on America’s road back.  The fundamental objective of the TechTest programs is to serve as a template and resource to other counties and regions across the country, inviting them to stand on our shoulders and start their own merit scholarship support efforts to invite qualified young people to choose STEM careers.

Today’s SRO event had an attendance of over 160 community leaders from the media, government, education, and business.  Our guest speaker was Mr Rick Hutley, VP of Global Innovations for Cisco.  Rick Hutley is a world class business executive and motivational speaker on the leading edge technologies that are shaping all of our tomorrows.  Russ Steele, SESF’s Executive Director, and I had the pleasure of starting the day with Rick with a congenial breakfast at Toffanelli’s.

The entire event was planned and managed by SESF volunteers Ms Laura van den Berg (Event Manager), Mr George Foster, and Mr Russ Steele representing the SESF board.  Laura did an outstanding job in pulling together the furball that these projects all start out as, and served as the event’s mistress of ceremonies.  Truth be told, she did marshall husband Luuk to help here and there.

Special thanks go to the distinguished array of TechForum2012 sponsors that include NCTV, The Union, KVMR, KNCO, AJA Video Systems, NCCA, Christine Foster Realtor, Olympia Mortgage and Investment, Grass Valley Chamber of Commerce, Nevada City Chamber of Commerce, ERC, the County of Nevada, and, of course Cisco Systems Inc.  Their prompt and visible support made this launch a merited and meaningful standard for future TechForum events.

On a personal note, I was heartened to see the extreme interest in the reaction and participation of the attendees.  Rick is disposed to an open give-and-take format of a presentation wherein questions can be asked at any time, and they were.  This gave rise to a number of interesting and illuminating detours that added to the prepared remarks.

Rick’s talk touched on the implications and impact of the approaching Singularity (q.v.).  He outlined the progression of Turing test (q.v.) mitigations as machines become more intelligent.  All this progressing to the point of dismissing the utility of that classic test of machines achieving peer intelligence with humans.  His conclusion was to substitute the test of whether humans consider machines as useful peers and partners in managing our resources and affairs, that would stand in for Turing and the Singularity.  I suggested that perhaps a better test would be the event when machines weigh in and assess the utility of humans as their peers in managing this planet’s affairs.  Rick Hutley mused that this indeed might be a better sign of fin de siècle, and graciously named it the Rebane Test.  In any event Rick is not a strong proponent of the near-term advent of Singularity, even though on one of his summary slides he did note that machines would replace all human workers by 2035.

As you see, dear reader, this was a lively and informative presentation with the attendees sitting at the edge of their seats.  The presentation and its Q&A went well beyond its scheduled time with the room filled to capacity.  Afterward, the podium was crowded with people seeking to continue the discussion with Mr Hutley and other attendees.

Rick Hutley set the bar high for our next TechForum, and I want to assure all that SESF and its team of volunteers will do everything possible to meet these standards when we again assemble for TechForum.  In the interval, we have the last seminar for TechTest2012 tomorrow at NUHS, and the exam itself will be given on 14 April 2012.  Please visit sesfoundation.org for more information.

Singularity Signposts – Telemedicine on the slow track

George Rebane

The European Space Agency is working on a medical AI called CAMDASS (Computer Assisted Medical Diagnosis and Surgery System).  It has a unique augmented reality user interface (UI) that would allow future astronauts to diagnose and treat complex medical cases when they are in space, and especially when they are at distances that prevent facile realtime communication with Earth.  ‘Augmented reality promises astronauts instant medical knowhow’ describes the approach and status of the program.

When we examine the state of such technology developments in medicine, the immediate question that comes to mind is ‘why can’t similar programs be in the works to provide medical expertise to lay caregivers here on Earth?’  And if you happen to be knowledgeable in the progress of AI and the relevant UI technologies, then the question is ‘why was such capability not available to us at the launch of the WWW?’

Such systems could have been made available in literally thousands of local clinics all over the world, most certainly in homes at the retail level in developed countries.  Over these years, the functionality of these systems could have been delivered online or through offline client-based implementations.  These systems could save literally billions of dollars in medical costs annually by supporting a more distributed, rapid, and broad-based delivery of medical knowledge and intervention procedures applied by people with limited, little, or no medical training.

And here I may have answered my own questions.  The billions going into established pockets in the medical industry and their legal beagles would then go elsewhere.  And that’s a no-no-no.  At this point the soft-hearted and soft-headed will leap in and start telling us that ‘a lay or lesser person who is not a physician can not be allowed to assume such heavy responsibility in a possible life/death matter, besides it would be the equivalent of practicing medicine without a license.’

My response to all that warbling and flutter is ‘Stuff and nonsense!’ (A more civil retort than a direct ‘Bullshit!’)  The systems could be designed for various types of medical incidents, levels of operator expertise, and connectivity to online professionals.  The main thing is that the use of such low cost intervention would seriously cut the money gusher to the healthcare industry at almost no increase to patient risk.  We must remember that hospitals kill about 100,000 patients a year through accidents, ineptness, and incompetence, and many physicians are woefully out of date.  Also, with governments mangling the healthcare markets, fewer people are studying to become poorly paid healthcare workers.

Again, all that is required is that our tort code be revised, and the medical unions defanged – a no small undertaking.  The CAMDASS technology is out there to make the delivery of such medical care available, and the entrepreneurial resources are cocked and ready to launch the needed enterprises to develop, market, and maintain these systems.  Such systems would totally restructure the delivery of healthcare at all levels.  But in order to hang on to the billions and the bureaucrats, today Big Brother says, ‘No!’

Singularity Signposts – Nano Quadrotors

George Rebane

The advances in robotics, miniaturization, and control are getting scary.  RR has been tracking such developments in these pre-Singularity years.  Take a look at this video of small quadrotor helicopters.  These craft can be controlled manually or by a computer that can fly them individually or in large formations.  And then consider their use in surveillance, interdiction, and other ‘security’ functions.  And then think of what militaries and governments can do with these.  And then think of what an autonomous AI can do with fleets of such craft.

Also consider their use as full-size personal and commercial transport vehicles.  The cockpit controls (‘user interface’) in these vehicles can be designed so as to allow a totally naïve individual, who hasn’t even flown a kite, to step into one and fly it wherever the craft can go, and do so in a stable and safe manner.  All it takes is to have the vehicle's control computer mediate between pilot manipulation of the controls and the control signals to the vehicle’s ‘autopilot’ that actually controls the power to the rotors and other control surfaces.

Of course, such craft can also be flown in tightly packed airways under the control of traffic control computers which take over from operator when the craft approaches such an airway.  Take a look at some of the other models of small hover craft on YouTube to appreciate their extreme maneuverability and controllability.  Modern times.  (H/T to RR reader for link.)

PS.  And now think about our education system and how prepared it is to supply workers into a world where such technology becomes commonplace.

New thoughts on Innovation, Entrepreneurship, and Education (2feb12 update)

George Rebane

A recent study by Vivek Wadhwa of the Singularity University published in the MIT Technology Review reports that older techies start more successful technology based companies than do those still a little damp behind their ears.  This contradicts a long-held myth.

The Kaufman Foundation which gathered data for the study states that a “survey of entrepreneurs found that most started their first company at age 39. People with degrees in computer science started companies much sooner than those with advanced training in other sciences or engineering.”  The nearby chart from Wadhwa’s piece summarizes the data.

This ties with my own experience.  I co-founded my first company at the age of 43, and my last fling was at 58.  Now, in my seventies, I’m still in there wiggling to help another start-up, hopefully on its way to the stars.  Wadhwa points out why the mature technical types have had the lion’s share of success.  The reasons are not surprising.

Musing over these findings I recall the educational backgrounds of technical workers in technology based start-ups.  Having hired many an engineer and programmer in my time, the candidates' formal credentials were of least interest to me as an entrepreneur and hiring manager.  I wanted people who could get the job done, and I have always been sufficiently astute technically (as are most other such technology managers) that I could vet the candidate myself through the interview process.

This is possibly a major advantage that technology has over other ‘soft’ business and professional areas.  Government has not yet put its heavy hand into the truly innovative and creative businesses enough to stifle the mobility and access of good talent.  Some of my best techies had no college degree at all.  This started me thinking on a thread that was piqued by Fay Vincent's – ‘Price Controls for Harvard’ in today’s (1feb12) WSJ.

Employment 2022 (Addended)

George Rebane

Here's a quick back of the envelope look at the employment situation over the next decade when we take into account accelerating technology that increases worker productivity.  GDP growth is taken at the indicated 2.5%/year.  This post is really as a 'memo to file' since people have asked me how I come up with the 70 million un/underemployed in the next decade with unemployment at 35%.  Even with GDP growth at 5%/year, the 2022 unemployment does not come down below 17%.  The blue numbers are inputs.  I have posted the actual Excel spreadsheet here so that readers may play with it and insert their own numbers - Download Employment2022.

 

Science still says, ‘Creation occurred.’

George Rebane

The best brains in cosmology ranging from Stephen Hawking of Cambridge to Alan Guth of MIT have been trying to munge the equations and the data to come up with some/any kind of support for the proposition that the universe did not have a beginning.

NewScientist.com reports in ‘Why physicists can’t avoid a creation event’ -

YOU could call them the worst birthday presents ever. At the meeting of minds convened last week to honour Stephen Hawking's 70th birthday - loftily titled "State of the Universe" - two bold proposals posed serious threats to our existing understanding of the cosmos.

One shows that a problematic object called a naked singularity is a lot more likely to exist than previously assumed (see "Naked black-hole hearts live in the fifth dimension"). The other suggests that the universe is not eternal, resurrecting the thorny question of how to kick-start the cosmos without the hand of a supernatural creator.

While many of us may be OK with the idea of the big bang simply starting everything, physicists, including Hawking, tend to shy away from cosmic genesis. "A point of creation would be a place where science broke down. One would have to appeal to religion and the hand of God," Hawking told the meeting, at the University of Cambridge, in a pre-recorded speech.

After looking under every theoretical rock available today, and then some, the bottom line is that “all these theories still demand a beginning.”

As a proponent of Intelligent Design (not to be confused with Creationism), I continue to celebrate such corroborative reports as satisfying Occam’s razor to the max.

Singularity Debate – Paul Allen vs Ray Kurzweil

George Rebane

This year’s Singularity Summit again brought out leading thinkers and workers on the progress being made toward that momentous fin de siècle of human development and evolution.  The annual conference prompted Paul Allen (Microsoft co-founder) and Mark Greaves to write a strong denial on the prospects of a near-term Singularity (here).  This was promptly rebutted by Ray Kurzweil in a fascinating essay on the pace of recent advances in various technologies (here).  In it he dismantles the Allen and Greaves arguments.  Both pieces appeared in the MIT Technology Review; these and their comment streams are worth a read.

We recall that we are now in the home stretch for the Singularity during which we would expect to see the kinds of reverberations that are going through the employment markets of the developed countries in which technology is being implemented most aggressively to replace human labor.  And that, of course, causes frequent re-evaluation of all current skill sets, and the obsoleting of entire fields of knowledge that used to be the basis for rewarding careers.  These considerations are ignored by our politicians of all stripes.