Rebane's Ruminations

Knowledge Engines

George Rebane

Part of our rush toward Singularity involves the web becoming ‘smarter’.  In case you haven’t noticed, search engine technologies are rapidly evolving from providing ‘information’ to becoming so-called knowledge engines.  Wolfram Alpha was an early one into this functionality, and it is now being joined by Google’s Knowledge Graph Microsoft will soon upgrade its Bing to provide the same type of functionality.

My friend Dr Larry Press reports on Knowledge Graph here.  And this is a short video that gives you an idea of all this before you dive into the details.

As evident from my past posts on the topic, I’m looking forward to IBM offering its Watson technology on a broad basis to websites.  To do that though will require the installation of what I’d call server cities instead of server farms.  Today web related utilities already consume more than 5% of our electrical capacity.  With all of us starting to use Watson-derived knowledge engines will make the country’s lights dim.

 

edX – ‘a revolution in education’ (addended)

George Rebane

MIT and Harvard have announced the launch of edX, a “disruptive” initiative in worldwide online education that will leverage the best teachers with interactive learning technology.  The promise of this newest of such initiatives that follow in the footsteps of the Kahn Academy is that it could well disrupt the careers of incompetent teachers, and maybe even the teachers unions.  MITnews reports -

EdX brings a “possibility of transformation through education to learners across the globe,” (Harvard president) Faust said. “We are privileged to be here today to mark the creation of a new partnership between two of the world’s great universities, a partnership that will change our relationship to knowledge and teaching for the benefit of our students, and students and would-be students everywhere.”

Anant Agarwal, director of MIT’s Computer Science and Artificial Intelligence Laboratory and president of the newly formed edX, called the new initiative a “historic partnership.” Online education, he said, is creating a “revolution” driven by “the pen and the mouse,” adding that edX is “disruptive, and will completely change the world.” The new possibilities afforded by today’s technology, he said, have created “the biggest change in education since the invention of the printing press.”

And that’s the good news, that we can leap over our dysfunctional (especially in STEM subjects) public education system and their cadres of union stultified deadwood ‘educators’.  Imagine how such course work will serve both home schooling and integrate with the full spectrum of brick and mortar schools.  I predict that the course certification processes adopted with online education will compete well with the diploma and degree programs now in the mainstream.  By ‘compete’ I mean compete in the job markets.

The bad news is how many American kids will tackle the offered course work, because it is hard and we know that worldwide kids from less developed countries will.

[Addendum]  Not to defocus the topic of online learning too much, but it seems to me there will be another benefit to the funders and consumers of k-12 education.  When the quality of teachers and teaching in public schools is criticized, left-leaning teachers leap to the fore with all kinds of denials and excuses.  The denials are not worth wasting bits to address.  However, the excuses for poor performance need airing.

Two obvious causes for poor performance in a classroom comprised of a cross section of students are 1) the out of control classroom due to bad behavior of kids whom the teacher cannot (may not?) control, thereby destroying the learning situation for everyone regardless of the teacher’s talents; and 2) the poorly prepared or incompetent teacher in a classroom of normally controllable kids – i.e. the learning environment is totally controllable.

From the national statistics on student performance and the fraction of uncontrollable classrooms in the country, it should be clear that the overwhelming source of student dumbth is due to #2 above.  There are no statistics indicating that ‘the blackboard jungle’ is the norm across the land.  Yet the (almost entirely leftwing) apologists for the state of public education overwhelmingly hide behind #1 as the reason for why our students don’t perform well, and why almost all of them going beyond high school have to be taught remedial basic skills in reading, writing, and math when they get to college.  (Their deficiencies in other subjects like history, economics, social studies, … are just ignored and the resulting ignorance is visible anywhere you see younger adults open their mouths in public.)

Therefore, there is reason to hope that as online education spreads through the land we will see lessening of the impact from #2 above.  And because more students can study in environments other than the classroom, there may also be a reduction in #1, the impact from disruptive students.  The dynamic this imposes on the legacy cohort of ‘professional’ teachers will be hard to predict because of the presence and power of their unions.  Thoughts?

‘Why the technical stuff?’

George Rebane

I was asked that question recently by a regular RR reader.  He went on to opine that not many of my readers would make the effort to understand all that high falootin’ stuff and just skip over it.  In short, I’m wasting time and effort in offering up such posts.  And, of course, he may be right.  When you’re selling, you never want to discount what a customer tells you.  And make no mistake about it, I am selling my little heart out here on RR.

As I later reflected on the reader’s question, it occurred to me that it’s been some years now since I posted anything on the larger purpose and objective(s) for flogging the keyboard and debating various esoteria with RR commenters.  Being a rewarded lifelong teacher has provided some intrinsic impetus to this enterprise – first in the Army, then with my kids and grandkids (no claims of success there), as a professional engineer/scientist/academic, and now again working with high schoolers.

RR is structured to continuously build on what has been written and discussed before in its pages.  I attempt to back-link all of its pieces to their appropriate ancestors, in addition to the usual outside references.  To the extent that this is successful, RR is an accumulating body of thought offered by me, and subsequently expanded and critiqued by the blog’s commenters.  Relatively few pieces here start out of whole cloth.  I make a considerable and not always successful effort to circle the barn as few times as possible; previous orbits on any given topic are always available by searching RR through its built in function or with an engine like Google (just add ‘rebane’ to the keyword list, and voila!).

Ideologically I am a conservetarian, promoting a careful and hopefully coherent amalgam of conservative and libertarian thought as seen through the Austrian lens.  For good or ill, I am an elitist.  I know I cannot reach everyone with all possible ideas/notions through my heartfelt diatribes, so I just try to target and contend with a small number of interested readers, all of whom should evince that they have at least three solid digits in their IQ.  In that and other things, I am terribly incorrect according to the dominant political perspective of the day as spouted by both Republicans and Democrats.

Making Medical Decisions

George Rebane

[This introduction to modern medical decision making is intended as the first of a series of such essays on RR.  Subsequent pieces will cover simplifying nomograms (to avoid the arithmetic), personal utility (always subjective), and planning sequential diagnostics and treatments.  The aim here is to prepare the intelligent healthcare customer to communicate effectively with the healthcare industry and make prudent decisions for his own benefit.  A related background tutorial by the author for this piece is 'Hello Bayes Theorem!']

The healthcare industry woefully lags in many areas, but helping patients make correct decisions about their individual healthcare is where healthcare providers, led by attending physicians, are pathetically behind the times.  Let me explain.

Administrivia - 25mar12

George Rebane

Dear Readers, I have returned from a two week sojourn to warmer climes.  Great times, many insights, and good conversations with new people, but lousy connectivity in the RV parks where we parked our little trailer - reliable wi-fi seems to be climbing the same slow ladder of availability that phones experienced a century ago.  Apologies for the sparse postings and sparser comments.  Thank you for continuing the discussions as the election season heats up in the midst of major events starting with SCOTUS on Obamacare, and an eerie silence from Israel (almost as if there were some preparations going on).

America's Technical Talent Slide vs TechForum

George Rebane

The fraction of technical workers in America stopped increasing in 2000, and actually decreased until 2006 when it seemed to flatten out.  Now that fraction has started going down again.  All during this time foreign-born scientists and engineers have been making up more and more of this meager workforce, working in professions that our Johnnies and Susies are rejecting in ever greater numbers.

For readers wondering what all the fuss is about, we recall that it isn’t the talents or efforts of our lawyers, MBAs, or even assembly line workers that invite the world to beat a path to Market America to buy our goods or services.  It is ever more the technology savvy worker that is at the head of the food chain that generates wealth and keeps the country from sinking faster than it already is.  And the fraction of those troops is going down.  (More in the 17feb12 WSJ from where the graphic is filched.)

Here in the US of A there are still some of us who keep wiggling mightily to attract more young people into the technical trades and professions.  In this effort we persevere into the teeth of an educational gale that is tuned to turning out graduates most suited for becoming government employees – workers who need ever higher taxes to keep them satisfied.

Locally, an effort in this direction is TechTest, a merit scholarship exam from SESF (www.sesfoundation.org) that is now in its sixth year.  TechTest2012 will be given on 14 April 2012.  Next Friday (24feb12) SESF, a 501c3 organization, launches TechForum2012, a luncheon and speaker series for raising scholarship monies for what have come to be known as the TechTest ‘survivors’ (highest scorers).  TechForum is a value-added conclave for Nevada County’s business, government, and institutional leaders that features world-class speakers talking about current and coming technologies that are relevant to our region.  Next Friday’s guest speaker is Mr Rick Hutley, Cisco’s VP for Innovation. TechForum is also open to the interested general public that wants to get informed, and support our young people headed for technology based careers.

A new barrier to growth

[This is the submitted form of my regular Union column that was published in the newspaper’s 11feb12 print and online editions.]

George Rebane

“Engineers in the European Union are free to work anywhere in the 27 member states, but recognition of their professional qualifications is often a stumbling block.”  So starts ‘Passport to Engineering’ in the February 2012 IEEE Spectrum, the prestigious flagship periodical of the world’s premier professional organization for engineers.  Europe’s engineers are about to be carded with a little piece of plastic – the new “engineerING card” - that is supposed to help them find engineering jobs all over the EU.

The card, developed by the European Federation of National Engineering Associations, will contain information about its holder’s education and “professional qualifications in accord with internationally recognized standards.”  The cards will be issued by the engineer’s country of origin.  Supposedly, with this card it will be easier for a Spanish engineer to get a job in Sweden.

The problem is that each country has its own standards for what is put on the card, and also what kind of government agency or bureau issues the card.  Some of these organizations don’t know jack squat about engineering.  Nevertheless, everyone is talking about Brussels making these cards into a legal gateway for engineering employment in the EU on the basis that it would facilitate cross-border hiring of technical types.  I’m not so sure.

Before looking at the ‘oops side’ of this bureaucratic brainchild, let’s back up and consider what the historical open market in engineering talent has brought to our civilization.  In free capitalist countries anyone who could do engineering could call himself and engineer – even correctly spelling it was optional.  People with ideas, maybe with some education, and maybe with some experience would get in their proverbial garages and come up with all kinds of stuff ranging from telephones, airplanes, automobile assembly lines, and on and on.  Would you believe that even the most successful and long-lived Sidewinder air-to-air missile came out of a garage in Ridgecrest, California?

Singularity Signposts – Telemedicine on the slow track

George Rebane

The European Space Agency is working on a medical AI called CAMDASS (Computer Assisted Medical Diagnosis and Surgery System).  It has a unique augmented reality user interface (UI) that would allow future astronauts to diagnose and treat complex medical cases when they are in space, and especially when they are at distances that prevent facile realtime communication with Earth.  ‘Augmented reality promises astronauts instant medical knowhow’ describes the approach and status of the program.

When we examine the state of such technology developments in medicine, the immediate question that comes to mind is ‘why can’t similar programs be in the works to provide medical expertise to lay caregivers here on Earth?’  And if you happen to be knowledgeable in the progress of AI and the relevant UI technologies, then the question is ‘why was such capability not available to us at the launch of the WWW?’

Such systems could have been made available in literally thousands of local clinics all over the world, most certainly in homes at the retail level in developed countries.  Over these years, the functionality of these systems could have been delivered online or through offline client-based implementations.  These systems could save literally billions of dollars in medical costs annually by supporting a more distributed, rapid, and broad-based delivery of medical knowledge and intervention procedures applied by people with limited, little, or no medical training.

And here I may have answered my own questions.  The billions going into established pockets in the medical industry and their legal beagles would then go elsewhere.  And that’s a no-no-no.  At this point the soft-hearted and soft-headed will leap in and start telling us that ‘a lay or lesser person who is not a physician can not be allowed to assume such heavy responsibility in a possible life/death matter, besides it would be the equivalent of practicing medicine without a license.’

My response to all that warbling and flutter is ‘Stuff and nonsense!’ (A more civil retort than a direct ‘Bullshit!’)  The systems could be designed for various types of medical incidents, levels of operator expertise, and connectivity to online professionals.  The main thing is that the use of such low cost intervention would seriously cut the money gusher to the healthcare industry at almost no increase to patient risk.  We must remember that hospitals kill about 100,000 patients a year through accidents, ineptness, and incompetence, and many physicians are woefully out of date.  Also, with governments mangling the healthcare markets, fewer people are studying to become poorly paid healthcare workers.

Again, all that is required is that our tort code be revised, and the medical unions defanged – a no small undertaking.  The CAMDASS technology is out there to make the delivery of such medical care available, and the entrepreneurial resources are cocked and ready to launch the needed enterprises to develop, market, and maintain these systems.  Such systems would totally restructure the delivery of healthcare at all levels.  But in order to hang on to the billions and the bureaucrats, today Big Brother says, ‘No!’

Administrivia - TypePad is sick

George Rebane

Dear Readers - TypePad, the server of RR, is beset with many problems as it has now made some of them known to its subscribers.  They promise that they are diligently working to bring things back to normal.  We shall see.

In the interval, some readers notice that there is no comment box displayed below my post or the last comment.  That fault is corrected when you sign in with Google or one of the other alternatives presented.

Again I apologize for not taking the earlier advice of friends and colleagues to migrate RR to a more reliable platform.  Rest assured that with the passage of the holidays, Plan B will be implemented.  Meanwhile, your continuing efforts to post comments are greatly appreciated.

‘Minority Rules’ or Why Bloggers Blog

George Rebane

Rensselaer Polytechnic researchers have discovered a dynamic network model that explains how a minority opinion can become a majority opinion when certain tipping point parameters are exceeded.  In the internet age this process has also been labeled ‘going viral’, and many of us have seen and studied its technical properties.  The RP researchers have been able to identify the tipping point as being somewhere around 10% minority opinion holders when the network of communicants is sufficiently connected.  (more here)

With modern media the spread of ideas enjoys a very dense network of connections over which compelling opinions and notions travel and become influential.  This would also apply to the spread of memes.

I guess bloggers in some way sense this and keep up their incessant efforts to put out thoughts they hope will gain some traction out there.  Of course, many of these thoughts are also re-transmissions of things they heard elsewhere, modified somewhat, and then passed on.  Again we come back to the secret life of memes (see also the work of Richard Dawkins and Julian Jaynes).

In sum, the spread of memes is a very non-linear process – hence the notion of a tipping point – and goes a long way to explain why poorly polling politicians keep plugging along, and sometimes even catch a breeze from a seemingly unknown quarter that blows them into office.  Now the system sciences are starting to develop explicative models that may some day soon evolve into predictive models (heaven help us then).  I look forward to this work being connected to the research reported by Bryan Caplan in The Myth of the Rational Voter.