Rebane's Ruminations

The Harvard Reorganization Plan

George Rebane

Harvard has a plan to deconstruct our republic and rebuild it in their own image.  To launch a national dialogue on this initiative, the university’s prestigious law school has published ‘Pack the Union: A Proposal to Admit New States for the Purpose of Amending the Constitution to Ensure Equal Representation’ which we shall here call the Harvard Reorganization Plan (HRP).  For those unfamiliar, Harvard University is today perhaps the best endowed ($40.9B as of FY2019) premier academe of all things ideologically progressive and the fount of America’s leftwing thought.  For our liberals it is the mother temple of correct forward thinking – as declared in its motto ‘Veritas’, the institution publishes its works on stone tablets.

In the HRP, on their most recently issued tablet, their legal academics make an extensive and well-documented case for yet the most fundamental transformation, if not the complete abrogation, of what has been the United States of America.  This is a bottom up plan that will rip out by the roots our “republic, if you can keep it.”  The HRP proposes a devilishly convoluted route to replace our present form of governance with a pure democracy; using the leaks, holes, and soft-points of our otherwise carefully constructed Constitution to first create a minimum of 96 solidly leftwing new states out of what is now the District of Columbia – since DC is federal territory, this will require only a simple majority in the Senate to achieve.  Then with a newly constituted hard-Left Congress, the Constitution will be pro forma amended beyond recognition so that the result is the birth of a new United Socialist States of America (USSA).

On its first reading, HRP puts forward some very persuasive arguments for the founding of a new USSA.  But it is persuasive in a blindered and blinding manner.  And all of these arguments pivot on the siren song of “equal representation” - ‘one person, one vote’ - to be applied in a reorganized America to as many public policy decisions as possible.  The promise here is replicating the California template wherein cowardly politicians, rather than assume political risk and vote openly in the legislature, will throw the decision to a manipulable electorate so that the desired result can be credited to ‘the peehpul’.   Today the whole nation can see the fruits of that kind of a legislative dodge.

The purpose of this commentary is to invite readers to collect in one place their thoughts on the recommendations in the HRP and other similar plans that call for changing our democratic republic into a democracy.  In the sequel I list some numbered assertions, some of which I offer axiomatically, others as propositions, and perhaps a few as provable theorems.

1. The natural world (universe) has evolved over the billions of years to be an unequal, lumpy, more-here-than-there, highly discriminating, and therefore marvelously complex place that gave rise to equally unequal critters like Homo Sapiens Sapiens.
2. We are each identifiably unique in almost every dimension of being and doing that we can imagine. Therefore, if thrown into the same cauldron, we sort ourselves out very quickly as to those who can and will do what is the best, most, and/or quickest.  And we observe this as an attribute we share with all the more highly developed animals – the smarter the critter, the more differentiable it is from its fellows.
3. The belief in and the enforcement of unexamined and unqualified equality is unnatural, and gives rise to societies that cannot generate the wealth required to maintain a beneficial quality of life for any of its members, including the controlling elites.
4. Humans don’t know how to purposely manage large-scale, complex systems affected by random influences. While we can impact their serendipitous responses, we cannot beneficially control their behavior.  Mankind’s attempt to do so has always resulted in large-scale misery that precedes tragedy.  Central control of such systems requires much more knowledge than we have been able to assemble.  The eternal hubris of the Left is to ignore and/or deny this truth.
5. Nature’s answer to this conundrum is to distribute knowledge and control to the lowest levels (of agency found) in large systems. The leaf knows neither the nature nor purpose of the tree, and needs know neither to do a good job as a leaf, paying attention only to its immediate environment.  Even Rousseau and Marx caught a whiff of such an Elysian state of being in their philosophies.
6. Our Founders were astute students of human nature. They knew the histories of failed democracies, and to a man, sought to shield their new nation from a similar short-sighted fate.  Hence, the immortal words of Ben Franklin when asked what the Constitutional Convention had wrought – ‘A republic if you can keep it’, clearly indicating that future generations’ ability to sustain their bequest was to be western civilization’s Great Experiment of governance.
7. No reasonable person would argue that our Constitution is the perfect foundational document for a republic. Its flaws were already recognized when it was still being hammered on the anvil.  That’s why the Constitution was issued with built-in mechanisms by which it could be amended in a deliberate and orderly manner as new times would give rise to new values and thinking.  There is nothing deliberate or orderly in the manner HRP calls for rewriting the Constitution.
8. Bryan Caplan’s The Myth of the Rational Voter – Why Democracies Choose Bad Policies (2007) captured and quantified the recent experience in sustaining our Republic subjected to the vicissitudes of an electorate composed overwhelmingly of those who won’t or can’t grasp the issues about which they must choose. The results of this monumental study would not have surprised our Founders.
9. I submit that, were the measures outlined in the HRP to be initiated by the next Democrat controlled Congress, there would arise a spontaneous nationwide armed resistance to ‘save the Constitution’ and maintain the status quo. In short, reasoned national dialogue would break down in a similar manner experienced during the years before the War Between the States.

More later, based on our prolific and deep-thinking readers, and as other thoughts will undoubtedly arise in the fullness of time, I will add them to the list with attribution.

The Advent of Government's Mega-overreach

George Rebane

Those who pay attention were made aware that Sacramento is next preparing a bill that would tax companies doing business in California on the basis of the difference between their CEO and median worker pay. (more here)  Portland already passed such a tax regulation last year.  Now you may ask, what business is it of government, or any non-owner of a private company, as to what should be their pay scale.  What’s the reasonable basis for government to reach into a company’s operating policy and impose punitive measures if it doesn’t do what politicians and government bureaucrats dictate?  Actually, there is no reasonable basis for this, nor need there be as long as government threatens the use of their gun.

What should concern all of us right-leaners is what comes next if the court challenges to this new super-stupid law fail.  There is nothing then to stop government from constructively appropriating private corporations – first slowly, then rampantly - by extending their operational dicta to everything from how many products of what kind companies should make, how much of a ‘fair market’ price they should charge for them, what should be the pay for specific jobs, …, the list is endless once this tax regimen is accepted.  Companies would still bear the full measure of risk for such operating policies enforced from on high.  Such a mega-overreach of private businesses is exactly what Hitler did in the 1930s to extend the cold hand of national socialism over Germany.  (Our already left-leaning media didn’t then know how to report that because Stalinist communism had already appropriated all production in the USSR.)

The likelihood of this scenario being the actual death knell of open market capitalism in America is heightened by the lack of involvement and critical thinking skills of our electorate.  And here I’m not talking about those of today’s hard-leftists (like those who frequent RR comment streams); what should concern us all are those millions of mid-roaders and independents now inured to years of lamestream propaganda – those whose socio-political ideology is at best a soft mush that can be re/shaped by the most recent socialist slogan.

AB5 is a related super-stupid California law that has become the legislative analogue of swiss cheese given all the exclusions that it is in the process of incorporating.  We covered its introduction in ‘California’s latest dumb to dumber’.  And to remind readers that stupid governance in California is not restricted to any one sector, we brought SB419 to readers’ attention in ‘SB419 – Stupid becomes stupider’.  Ms Terry McLaughlin in the 16jan20 Union (here) gives a more complete treatment of the effects of AB5 since its passage.  I could go on to also review the impact of SB50 on local control of planning and restrictions on rent increases, but there's enough here to again communicate the ongoing disaster that is Sacramento.

It will be most interesting to read the leftwing's apologetics for all this insanity in California, because we know they are true believers in whatever comes out of Sacramento (fashioned in their image), even if they don’t have the ability to present a rational defense of their beliefs.

Sandbox - 16jan20

[Anyone willing to offer a guess as to the date on which the Senate will deliver its verdict?  I'll even take your MAB numbers to see who has the most accurate view of when this kabuki performance will end.  gjr]

Ruminations – 15jan20 (updated 16jan20)

Temper your antipathies.  We seem to hate with pleasure, and even before we have looked; and always does this inborn and vulgar aversion rise against the most eminent of men.  Gracian #46

George Rebane

On the China Deal, Phase One.  The Dems have been busy all day lambasting Trump’s latest accomplishment (having nothing similar to offer during their tenure), led by a TDS qui patitur maximus Chuck Schumer (for you plebes, that’s Latin for ‘one who suffers maximally’), and one who today tells the country that the deal is really bad for America, and that China’s Xi has Trump by the short hairs.  Well, Schumer has no financial skin in the trade game, but the millions of people who do, voted with their wallets to push the markets to new highs on the news.  That is one of the main differences between progressive talk and realworld walk.

Uncritically celebrating everything Trump - that's what our progressive readers continue to accuse the right leaning commenters of RR.   These pages are an open archive demonstrating that such charges are unmitigated crap.  There is no one on the conservetarian side who blindly approves of everything Trump does.  Au contraire, in turn we all take The Donald to task for his foibles, be they running off at the mouth/tweet, or something of more moment like tariffs.  It is our progressive pinheads who unconditionally genuflect to everything that comes out of Team Nancy’s star chamber – again verified by the long record of this weblog.  But the bottom line is that no RR readers of whatever stripe give unconditional adulation to Trump.  We are all critics – some irrationally rabid, some constructive.

Curious solutions proposed for the homeless problem.  It seems common wisdom holds that if a community expands its welcoming housing, nutrition, and other caring services for the homeless, that this will put an end to it – in short, once we gather them all under roof and feed them, then the homeless problem will be solved.  Apparently no one has refreshed themselves on the experience of Middletown, Ohio; most certainly not the sympathetic community leaders of Austin, Texas who are among the most recently surprised as to what really happens when common wisdom is applied.  (more here and here)

[16jan20 update]  Liberal logic on parade.  Virginia is passing a blatantly cynical law to make residents safe from gun violence by outlawing private indoor gun ranges where gun safety is taught and practiced by private individuals.  Only the most lame and/or cynical minds would seek to pass such a law that further proscribes the Second Amendment.  These people have no sense of shame when behaving so in the public forum; it’s only their expression of raw power as the dominant party of that state - and it's yet one more harbinger of what to expect when socialist autocracy becomes dominant in any land.  California has long been subject to and victim of such trepidations and travesties from the Democrats.

SB419 – Stupid becomes stupider

George Rebane

There is no lower bound to progressive stupidity.  This truth is again confirmed and demonstrated to boot by SB419 signed into law by our Gov Nutjob.  Adding to all the other problems with our progressively punished public education in California, the new law installs ‘the willfully defiant classroom’ into our schools.  It legalizes “willful defiance”, which until now has been a reason for teachers and principals to impose disciplinary action and suspension when 6-8^th grade students willfully defy teachers and staffers in our schools.  The law effectively removes the ‘willful defiance’ clause as a violation from our education code EC48900(k).

Actually, it’s even worse than that.  In its broader interpretation, the new law makes it legal for such kids to defy any adult, including their parents who will now be in violation when they attempt to discipline their unruly little darlins, or any kids for that matter.  The real reason for this stupid response from Sacramento is that suspended kids don’t generate cash for the schools which get certain kinds of government funding based on attendance.  A quirk in the law is that the schools may still use EC48910 to send the little idiots somewhere else, but not home.  One possible destination will be the new “intervention room” appropriately staffed by people the kids can ignore and raise hell.  I have no idea how that will work out, and neither do the pinheads in our legislature led by our paramount pinhead Newsom. (more here and here)

And the real pinheads are our neighbors, those who year after year vote for ever more ignorant and ideologically sclerotic legislators.  Recall, the plan was to first make them into double dummies through our public schools.  That has worked, and now they are compliant nebbishes who get their daily marching orders from the lamestream media.

Dropout Derby - 13jan20

George Rebane

Well, I am relieved to see the socialist demagogue Booker retire from this race.  The man was a way too good-looking and smooth talking Marxist with the ability to bamboozle a lot of people before November.  He may still be a candidate for Warren's VP, unless she wants to pick someone less rabidly leftist like Buttigieg.

It’s Still the Economy, Stupid!

George Rebane

While Messrs Smith, Bastiat, Mises, Hayek, and Freedman explained it all, Mr Henry Hazlitt succinctly summarized the whole thing in his classic, Economics in One Lesson (1946).  This book has become such a fundamental text, that you don’t even have to buy a copy of it any more.  It is now online in its entirety - many of us did buy it, having read it long before the internet, and now displaying it on the bookshelf for dinner guests.  The Foundation for Economic Education features it here.  For readers wishing to free themselves from the stifling Marxist economics that our progressives use to mismanage both our national and state economies, I strongly recommend checking out FEE’s ample and informative offerings on economics and society.  See also the Mercatus Center.

America is such a blessed country that illustrates the economic principles taught by the above giants.  An example of this is the graphic from the Bureau of Labor Statistics shown nearby.  It shows how Obama’s leftwing economic policies held back the nation’s recovery for eight straight years, and what happened during the first three years of President Trump’s administration when the straps on free markets were loosened a bit (they still need to loosen much more).

This information appeared in the 11jan20 WSJ under a piece titled ‘The Economy’s Inequality Dividend’.  When posting such compelling data that exposes and illuminates another Big Lie of the Left, it is always interesting, revealing, and entertaining to read the countering apologetics from the chorus of collectivists who dare to venture into this arena of ideas so foreign to all they have been taught.  Albeit, there are not too many of them, for here as elsewhere, discretion is still the better part of valor, especially of the misguided kind.

Coincidentally, today the 11jan20 Union published an excellent supporting column by Mr Jim Driver (here), who offered ‘Twelve Real Economic Facts’ first published by FEE.   Here we present them as published.

1. In any freely chosen economic exchange, both parties will, at least in their own minds, benefit from the exchange. This is called “Gains from Trade.”
2. The value of any good or service can only be determined by the individual human mind. This is called “Subjective Value.”
3. Nothing is free. The cost of anything that you want is what you are willing to give up, to get what you want. This is called “Opportunity Cost.”
4. Economic wealth, in a free society, does not come from “a top down planned economy created by so called experts” but from individuals’ actions that result in unplanned outcomes for the whole society. This is called “Spontaneous Order.”
5. Individuals act to maximize their own reward. This is called “Incentives.”
6. Cooperation between individuals creates value when a seller can produce a given item or service at a lower cost than the buyer would spend to produce it himself. This is called “Comparative Advantage.”
7. No one person or group knows enough to plan (and force) social outcomes, because information necessary for social order is distributed among its members and revealed only in human action. This is a “Knowledge Problem.”
8. In addition to the tangible and quantifiable effects, there are quite often invisible costs and unmet opportunities to any action or policy. These are often called “Unintended Consequences.”
9. Institutions influence the decisions that individuals make. For example, property rights by definition can only exist when ownership is vested in the individual and not in the commons. This means that “Rules Matter.”
10. Each person makes choices with the intention of improving his or her condition. This means that “As Individuals, the Actions we make are Purposeful.”
11. Voluntary association permits people of all backgrounds to interact peaceably, create value, cultivate personal character and build mutual trust. This helps create “A Civil Society.”
12. Wealth is generated whenever someone, by acting on an opportunity to gather under-used, or misused, or undiscovered resources or ideas, creates value for others. This is called “Entrepreneurship.”

RR's longtime assiduous readers will recognize that the above flies in tight formation with my credo, and the part of Rebane Doctrine published in these pages over the years.  My duty, as I see it ;-)

Sandbox - 11jan20

[Many apologies for letting the last sandbox get a little soggy.  So many issues, so little time.  gjr]

Dropout Derby – 10jan20

George Rebane

Marianne Williamson, self-help and spiritual adviser, and part of the Democrat menagerie of candidates, withdrew from the race to POTUS today.  From my perch, her withdrawal was probably for the best, since displacing the former residents of the Pantheon, the secular humanist Democrats have eschewed anything that might have out-evolved their own kind.

Ruminations – 10jan20 (updated 13jan20)

George Rebane

The Dems’ Chorus of Cacophony is now shrieking at Trump for taking out Soleimani the terrorist as a prophylactic for imminent acts of terror, exactly the same thing they blamed and still blame Bush2 for NOT taking out Bin Laden in order to prevent 9/11.  We recall it was Bill Clinton who declined to take out Bin Laden when he was actually in our cross-hairs.

More liberal worthies are also blaming Trump for Iran’s downing of the Ukrainian airliner, claiming that our president caused the deaths of the innocent passengers.  No doubt all subsequent atrocities committed by the rump ISIS contingents will now be blamed on our president since he also took out ISIS leader al-Baghdadi.  Such accusations are a daily testament to the anti-American propaganda of our progressives who promote the longevity of every leftwing tyrant across the globe.

Our voting teenagers should make US foreign policy a “higher priority” argues a learned 17-year-old in the 10jan20 edition of The Union (here).  The young man appears to have been successfully inculcated in our public schools to embrace TDS as the proper political support for voting decisions (he likes Buttigieg), while ignoring the capacities of his much less knowledgeable and more malleable peers.  His point would be better made were our schools really a forum for open discussion of ideas instead of founts of mind-melding progressive propaganda.

'Tax the robots' is the new cry arising across the land as a way to slow down automation and save the jobs of the un- and less-skilled.  This, along with universal basic income (q.v.), appears to be the half-way solution to the advent of systemic unemployment.  Other deep thinkers are of the mind that smart machines will be like all other past innovations, they’ll create more new jobs as they change and take away old jobs.  No one yet knows how to tax this latest advance in what used to be called automation.  And you can be sure that nothing promising about all this will come out of our polarized legislatures.  The real problem of systemic income was outlined in these pages some years back (here, here, and here).

[12jan20 update] The winds of woke.  Oh it’s hard to be a progressive without getting daily instructions from PC Central.  For years they taught us about the benefits of adopting cross-cultural artifacts, arts, and affectations into our supposedly banal and racist western culture - inclusivity and globalism and all that.  Now suddenly it has become ‘misappropriation’ to do any of that - a definite no-no for all the woke folks.  The latest is that white women should no longer wear hoop earrings which were originally connected with African women’s adornments.  Gotta stay current.

"The ongoing turmoil in U.S. politics is part of a larger political crisis that is shattering old alignments of left and right in North America and Western Europe. On both sides of the Atlantic, embattled establishments are besieged by populist insurgents. The rebellion takes different forms in different countries—the election of Donald Trump in the U.S., Brexit in the U.K., the revolt of the yellow vests in France. But the underlying dynamic is the same: the revolt of alienated, mostly but not exclusively native and white working-class voters against post-national metropolitan elites."  So argues University of Texas Prof Michael Lind in a major 11jan20 WSJ essay (here).  New insights, definitely worth a read for those paying attention.

[13jan20 update]  ‘Stack & Pack’, an important objective of Agenda21 (now Agenda2030), takes a huge step forward in California under SB50 which Gov Newsom will sign into law.  Here’s the headline – “Senate Bill 50 tramples over local control to push densification”.  Our leftwingers will again sing the A21 conspiracy song.  And again I reply that with Sacramento’s one-party system of governance, there is no conspiracy needed to promote collectivist central planning and control.  (H/T to reader)  Oh, and did I mention AB5?

Scattershots – 9jan20

George Rebane

Progressives’ public displays of caring social involvement will abruptly end when they finally destroy the economy that enables such displays.

Joining the chorus of all Democrats, Sen Tim Kaine is a POS and a lying scumbag every time he opens his mouth.  Last night on FN he lied about there being members of Congress who favor a “war with Iran”.  He continued spewing his crap by claiming that we actually are at war with Iran, thereby violating the 1973 War Powers Act (which was only a joint resolution of Congress).  We are NOT at war with Iran, but only responding militarily in the type of push-back operations that George Kennan first outlined in his 1946 ‘Long Telegram’ from Moscow, and which we have been doing for over 70 years.  (Granted, we had two non-declared wars in Korea and Vietnam in the interlude under Democrat presidents.)  And the POS finished his interview by lying that Bolton needs to testify to the Senate since he has appealed “please subpoena me”.  In truth, far from Kaine’s mouth, Bolton has only said that he was willing to testify were the Senate to subpoena him.

The progressive pinheads of Middletown, Ohio have established expanded facilities for its homeless and publicized that they welcome all comers.  Well, all comers from all over the state are now being shipped to Middletown.  And wouldn’t you know it, the Middletown mamas and papas are shocked at the response – I mean, talk about room temp IQs.  3 of 4 homeless in town now are from out of town, and Police Chief Rodney Muterspaw (his real name, I swear) says, “We have a huge problem with other cities (they know who they are), dumping homeless people here because they don't want them in their city.”  Now folks hereabouts know that Nevada City and even Grass Valley are real concerned about becoming more caring and welcoming to the homeless, both indigenous and immigrants.  RR recommends that our Nevada County worthies put in a call to Chief Muterspaw, and go over their plans to handle the homeless from the I-80 corridor.

[Later] Authoritarian progressivism is America’s metastasizing cancer that is quietly eating away here and there at the social fabric that binds our people and has made our country the shining beacon for all humanity.  Like cancer, authoritarian progressivism does its focused work quietly and mostly out of sight until irreparable damage is done, only then does it step out and don the mantle of the government gun.  Its ongoing war on philanthropy is an area where our Democrat leftists intend to wipe out one of the most effective instruments of civil society, but one that visibly and successfully competes with the notion that the government collective should be the source of all civil good.  The Big Lie that private philanthropy is an “elite charade” is now promoted by lamestream outlets like WaPo, NYT, and NPR – the full court press is on.  More specifically, as editor of Philanthropy magazine Karl Zinsmeister points out (here), “Today’s critics of private giving are most misleading in their suggestion that it is primarily a game played by “the billionaire boys’ club.” That’s not even close to accurate. The lion’s share of America’s vast philanthropy comes from ordinary citizens, 100 million of whom make charitable gifts annually, with the average household donating around $3,000. In addition, 77 million citizens volunteer time and labor. This broad generosity powers some 1.5 million independent nonprofits across the country, operating in every imaginable part of the economy, pursuing a panoply of approaches to national improvement.”  (Much more to be said about this war, but I do want to point out that this is another of RR’s series highlighting leftwing's Big Lies - abiding and impactive lies that really do matter.)

Why Black Lives Don’t Matter to Blacks

George Rebane

[This is the transcript of my regular KVMR commentary broadcast on 8 January 2020.]

Do black lives really matter?  Well that clearly depends on whose talk and whose walk you pay attention to.  The loud talk from our congresscritters and black leaders is that black lives very much matter, and that it’s the police and white racists who are wantonly killing blacks across the land.  But by their walk and the abundant facts on record over the last half-century, these same people demonstrate that they really don’t care much about how African-Americans live and die.  They only demonstrate their concern and ire after a rare and unfortunate incident occurs where a black American is killed by a law enforcement officer.  Then it is time to gather their constituents in the streets and continue the narrative that blacks are dying in great numbers at the hands of cops and whites.

The reality is quite different in that blacks die by the hundreds every month at the hands of other blacks.  This ongoing carnage does not raise a murmur in the national news.  No black leaders or members of Congress, or media outlets express their outrage on Monday mornings after another weekend of murder and mayhem in the Democrat controlled urban ghettos.

From the conservative National Review we learn the big picture that “From 2000 to 2015, the mean African-American homicide-victimization rate, adjusted for age, was 20.1 per 100,000. That’s more than three times the Hispanic rate of 6.4 (despite disadvantages comparable to those of blacks) and over seven times the average white rate, 2.7. Moreover, … from 1976 to 2005, 94 percent of the killers of black murder victims were other African Americans. In short, this is about exceptionally high as well as overwhelmingly intraracial black violent crime. White-on-white homicide is equally intraracial, but the rates are not astronomically high. … (And) in the contemporary period, from 1976 to 2014, it is estimated that (over 198,000) African Americans died nationwide at the hands of black killers. That’s (more than 5,200) deaths per year on average, roughly 19 times the annual number of deaths of African Americans in confrontations with police.” (more here)

There have been a few short-lived programs attempted that effectively reduced crime rates in our urban centers.  The most notable of these was carried out under NYC Mayor Mike Bloomberg, a white Jewish liberal politician now running for president.  The ‘Broken Windows’ and ‘Stop-and-Frisk’ programs during his 2002-2013 tenure saved over 21,000 lives of which 90+% or over 19,000 of them would have been black.  So what happened?

The response after Bloomberg left office was immediate and disastrous.  Under leftwing Mayor DeBlasio, stop-and-frisk, which took hundreds of illegal guns off the streets, was discontinued because cops ‘unfairly’ stopped and frisked more blacks than people of other races.  As reported in the WSJ, “the rap on stop-and-frisk was that stops of African-Americans were disproportionate to their percentage of the population. That is true. But as (Mayor Bloomberg) pointed out, they were not disproportionate to the descriptions of the people committing crimes given by witnesses.” (more here)  No matter, progressive views on political correctness and social justice demanded that neighborhood maintenance was no longer required, illegal guns returned to the streets, and, as predicted, the crime rate began increasing.  And blacks again started dying at the hands of other blacks in greater numbers.

So today, the Democrats know that they have no chance against Trump without the black vote.  And for reasons no one dares to study or answer, our urban African-American populations demand policing policies that cater to proportions propagandized by Democrat politicians, instead of caring that black lives matter.  So now we have candidate Bloomberg doing a 180 on the stop-and-frisk apology circuit for having saved thousands of black lives, and promising never to do it again.

The questions no one is asking are, ‘Was it fair to blacks that an effective policing policy was discontinued, thereby again raising black-on-black murder rates?’, and even more importantly, ‘What does all this say about the priorities and/or the understanding of the black voters who year after year return disastrously incompetent and corrupt politicians to office, who then perpetuate their lives on the “plantation”?’  As reported in the Washington Post, Candace Owens has a YouTube video (here) that explains the matter – I recommend it to you.

My name is Rebane, and I also expand on this and related themes on Rebane’s Ruminations where the transcript of this commentary is posted with relevant links, and where such issues are debated extensively.  However, my views are not necessarily shared by KVMR.  Thank you for listening.

A Larger Context for Trump’s Next Mid-East Move

George Rebane

Thanks to President Trump, we are again at a crossroads which gives us an opportunity to define America’s stand in the Mid-East, and a related strategy for a new crisp and clear global foreign policy, one understood by all to achieve and maintain a power balance that promotes peace and prosperity to a satisficing level.  In the following I once more outline such a policy, this time in a structured format for easy reference in subsequent examinations.

1. Overarching fact and fundamental axiom – America has been the world’s White Hat Hegemon (WHH) since the end of WW2, and has almost single-handedly created and maintained a world order that has enormously benefited all levels of humanity across the globe.
2. Driving premise – Nevertheless, America has fulfilled its WHH role in a hesitatingly reactionary manner, never sure that its latest overseas foray is something that it should undertake or of which Americans understand and approve.
3. Consequently, we should openly accept and declare that America sees itself as the world’s WHH who will use our wealth and power to consistently serve the national interests of the US and its allies. This declared role has no stipulated end date; it will continue indefinitely until the world order changes into some yet unforeseen and more benign format.
4. America seeks a balance of local power in the Mid-East in which there is to be no single regional hegemon, a position now contested for by Turkey and Iran. We will most vehemently oppose the establishment of any kind of fundamental pan-Islamist political union among the region’s nation-states.  The first plank of such a policy is that we and our allies will not condone any radical Islamist body to acquire nuclear weapons.
5. We recognize that the maintenance of such a distributed world order of general peace and prosperity will require engaging in intermittent, relatively cheap (assuming we maintain primacy in combat technologies and force levels), and brief brushfire police actions (call them wars if you must). This will necessarily require the regular sacrifices by our military that will number a small fraction of the annual casualties we willingly suffer driving cars, imbibing addictive substances, and calmly accepting the annual toll of preventable medical mistakes. Nothing comes free, most certainly not life under a global government.
6. In the current mid-east situation, we will get into a tit-for-tat (TFT) exchange with Iran – we will react forcefully to every Iranian attack on American life and limb in the region and elsewhere in the world. And we will also react with mutual benefit when Iran so acts.
7. As the WHH we will consistently practice TFT when and wherever American lives are at stake.
8. TFT has been shown – both historically and game theoretically (cf. iterated prisoners’ dilemma) - to be the most effective strategy for driving and maintaining cooperation between two contentious parties. The three characteristics of TFT are 1) never defect first, 2) when the other defects, immediately counter with at least as much force as displayed by the defector, 3) forgive immediately when the other party ceases and desists.
9. When the lives of an ally’s nationals are involved, we will openly offer them ‘WHH services’ in that we will arm, transport, and surveil for them (i.e. provide logistical, sensor, communications, command & control, etc systems). However, the afflicted/attacked ally must commit to put its own ‘boots on the ground’ and in harm’s way – America will not risk its blood and treasure for an ally not willing to first risk its own blood and treasure in its national interests.  Message to allies - as long as you’re willing to lead and bleed, then, and in concert with our own national interests, we will support your fight and have your back.

For the above outlined policy I humbly solicit contributions and criticisms before incorporating a refined version into the body of Rebane Doctrine.

Ruminations – 5jan20 (updated 6jan20)

George Rebane

On hubris and nemesis in the Deep State – an interview (here) with Victor Davis Hanson sheds some new light on the goings on in the unelected state within a state.  (H/T to correspondent)

Consulting Congress required?  The Constitution is very specific on the matters of national security that require the President to consult with Congress before acting.  And the Constitution purposefully gives the President sole power to decide what constitutes an imminent threat to our national security.  The War Powers Act (actually a Resolution) of 1973 was enacted only to check the President’s power to unilaterally commit the US to an armed conflict without the consent of Congress (e.g. the Vietnam War).  None of this is material to the opportunistic assassination of another high level terrorist leader in the course of conducting longstanding regional security operations.  The Democrats are demogauging their hopefully ignorant constituents.

Listening to Tucker Carlson quoting polls taken of all Americans on matters of economics, foreign policy, ecology, …, and anything requiring numeracy is a misleading and futile effort, because the population as a whole is not read on such topics.  That is why our Founders feared a pure democracy and instead gave us a republic, ‘if we can keep it’.  Anti-Americans of all stripes always advocate doing away with our republican Constitution and substituting a pure democracy as the shortcut to an overarching tyranny of the elites.  Tucker should know better.

[6jan20 update]  Obama’s blatant treachery (without congressional approval for those so concerned) was secretly releasing and delivering to the mullahs pallets of Iranian cash sequestered by the US since that country declared itself a sworn enemy of America and acted accordingly for decades.  That money went directly to support the rogue country’s killing of Americans across the globe, and funding its world threatening nuclear weapons program.  And we have yet to discover who all in the free world took Iranian bribes to support the horrible nuclear agreement under which the mullahs have continued their nuclearization unopposed and unobserved.

The Union demonstrates once again its open-door editorial policy to let profoundly ignorant local ideologues embellish their op-ed pages.  Today a Nevada City worthy gets to vent in a particularly long diatribe titled ‘The billionaire’s (sic) lament’.  Here we learn that it has been our billionaires who have prevented “working/nonworking class families (to) be able to live sustainable lives.”  It is they who have squirreled all that money, taken from the poor, in their mattresses instead of investing it to build companies, provide needed goods/services, and create jobs for the rest of us.  Happy days lie ahead when the likes of Bernie and Pocahontas put in place their new asset and income taxes to finally launch what “is a ‘class battle for power,’ one between the wealthy old rich males (super rich 1%) with their minions (rich 19%) against all of you, no matter who you are.”

The nation’s progressive pinheads have now fastened on “imminent threat” as a demonstrated prerequisite for killing Soleimani, the murderous mastermind of Islamist ragheads everywhere.  Congressional Democrats and their lamestream lackeys grudgingly admit to Soleimani’s decades of dastardly deeds, but now see ‘imminence’ as a useful distraction to refocus their ongoing TDS.  From the 6jan20 WSJ, “If the threat to Americans from Soleimani was real, it doesn’t matter under international law whether the threat was “imminent.” The traditional law of war couldn’t be clearer on this point. If Soleimani was an enemy combatant waging war on the U.S., then the U.S. has every right to target him. If he was directing attacks on the U.S., as not even Chuck Todd doubts he was, then he can be legally targeted.” (here)

Russ Steele (1939-2020) RIP

George Rebane

My dear friend Russ Steele died this morning in the loving arms of Ellen, his wife of 56 years.  Russ was taken by pancreatic cancer which he had been fighting for the past year.  The Steeles and Rebanes have been close friends since we moved here in 2002, having worked on various community projects together, frequently entertaining and travelling together and with friends, and, of course being ideological twins in the great partisan battles that have raged over these years in our county, state, and country.  Lieutenant Colonel Steele retired after 20 years in the Air Force as an EW officer on B-52s, and then moving to systems test planning staff.  After the Air Force, Russ joined a large aerospace company to manage a group doing R&D in advanced transportation electronics, and moved back to Nevada County where he was born.

Since retiring from aerospace, Russ has been very involved in the county’s efforts to support local economic development through expansion of our telecommunications and broadband access.  Russ and Ellen were also very active in Nevada County’s Friends of the Military.  The Steeles raised four daughters who eventually left Nevada County to live in the Sacramento area with their families.  Three years ago Russ and Ellen moved to Lincoln to be closer to family and healthcare services.  Russ continued his interest in and love for Nevada County through frequent visits and consultations with various county managers and regional business development organizations.  He was also a prolific author, contributing articles to local business magazines and writing a book on his years growing up in a small Idaho mining village.

Jo Ann and I will miss Russ’s penetrating insights and always ready sense of humor – he was a man of information and avoided daisy talk - above all he was a patriot and a gentleman.  Today an important and intimate part of our life is gone.  I am reminded of John Donne’s words made famous by Hemingway, “No man is an island, entire of itself; every man is a piece of the Continent, a part of the main…. Any man's death diminishes me, for I am involved in mankind, and therefore never send to know for whom the bell tolls; it tolls for thee.”

Dropout Derby - 2jan20

George Rebane

Señor Julian Castro has decided that "it simply isn't our time", and put discretion before valor to re-engage at another time.  I see this as a more than interesting commentary on the voting (ideological?) preferences of our Hispanic-American citizens.  They seem to have a broader view of governance and economics than that only filtered by ethnicity.  We have now passed the dropout halfway point of our original slate of candidates.

 

Scattershots – 2jan20 (updated 4jan20)

George Rebane

Google’s AI does breast cancer diagnoses.  “Google’s health research unit said it has developed an artificial-intelligence system that can match or outperform radiologists at detecting breast cancer, according to new research. But doctors still beat the machines in some cases. … The AI system outperformed the average radiologist in determining whether the women would develop breast cancer.”, as reported in the 2jan20 WSJ (here).  The AI’s performance stats are impressive, and then comes the insane part.  Due to bureaucratic and regulatory concerns which essentially make ‘perfect’ be the enemy of the ‘good’, the AI “isn’t yet ready for clinical use”.  The correct answer is that it is more than ready for clinical use, because there is no reasonable downside to its use in tandem with practicing radiologists.  Since the algo already outperforms humans, it can be introduced in phases with various practitioners all over the country while research continues toward the elusive perfect.  Here is another problem for which we should always look to government as being its probable first cause, and government’s stand-down as being the most obvious first approach to a solution.

Does “Japanification” loom in America’s future?  The answer may well be YES.  In addition to some bad fiscal and monetary policies over the last 30 years, it’s Japan’s aging demographics that have put a stifling curse on its economy.  We have some disturbing similarities – “Developed economies that are maturing that have demographic headwinds are going to face many of the same things Japan has been facing over decades. … Like Japan, the U.S. has an aging population and a concentration of industry among a small number of giant businesses. In 2019, U.S. interest rates fell sharply, sparking serious discussion in markets, perhaps for the first time, of whether long-term rates could fall to zero or even turn negative. That already has happened in Japan and in much of Europe.” (more here)  Yes, Europe with its heavily socialistic governments have even more concentration of their industries (c.f. corporatism) and are already suffering the early stages of Japanification.   Progressive governments’ hip-level response to such economic headwinds is to turn the screws on for more central planning and control with disastrous results as have occurred recently in Chile (see below).  Our Democratic leftists have that and more in store for us should they increase their control of the levers of power. 

Sandbox - 1jan2020

[Well, we finally made it to 2020.  Can anyone imagine that this may be the first year during which our progressive commenters discuss issues instead of arriving here to exchange ad hominems?  We continue to hope that they have the ability to do that. gjr]

Scattershots – 27dec19 (updated 31dec19)

George Rebane

Well, here are a handful of observations on the progress the progressives are making to fundamentally transform America into a second-world autocracy that will look nothing like what our Founders intended to bequeath us, and nothing like the America many of us older folks have enjoyed and learned about.  And about which the younger generations have been kept in the dark, discontent, and expectant that the nation is in dire straits and will be saved only by fulfilling the objectives specified in Agenda21 (now Agenda2030).

Sandbox - 26dec19

[I solicit nominations for the next Democrat/lamestream Big Lie re/issued before New Year's Day that will impact the largest number of the nation's light thinkers.  The same invitation is issued to our leftwingers about Republicans.  gjr]

Christmas 2019

Behold, a virgin shall be with child, and shall bring forth a son, and they shall call his name Emmanuel, which being interpreted is, God with us.  Matthew 1:23

George Rebane

Another tumultuous year is ending with celebrations for peace and joy.  The Rebanes count themselves among the diminishing number of American Christians who still wish their family and friends, and RR readers of all persuasions a season of remembrance and reflection on what has been bestowed on this third planet, circling a modest star, making its way with billions of similar stars in a galaxy that populates this universe with uncounted trillions of other such galaxies.  Christmas still reminds many of us that we are among the blessed in our seeming insignificance.

Scattershots – 23dec19

George Rebane

The persecution of Christians, almost overwhelmingly by Muslim extremists in their lands, and leftwing secular humanists in more civilized regions, is picking up steam.  The latest of about which the lamestream is silent today goes on in Nigeria, Africa’s most populous country.  There the Fulani Muslims have taken up gun and machetes against entire villages of Christians.  These attacks take place all over the country and consist of the most horrendous acts of violence against innocent and unarmed civilians, leaving behind the dead and mutilated.  Lop amputations are again the favored way to leave survivors who can then relate the horrors of the ‘religion of peace’ to those yet to be visited.  The government’s military is in cahoots with the religious fanatics, showing up late, if ever, and then confiscating anything that looks like an implement with which the surviving villagers could defend themselves, citing the national law against civilians bearing arms, no matter how primitive or useful they are as a farming implement.  (more here)

Boeing’s grounded 737MAX may be the final instigation for the long-talked of conversion to take human pilots out of cockpits.  The modern commercial aircraft is so complex that it needs a lot of smart machinery to operate it.  And that requires a much more extensive training curriculum for today’s pilots than what they are used to, and of what many (most?) are capable of executing in the cockpit, especially during anomalous or emergency conditions.  We have demonstrated that large drone aircraft are capable of operating autonomously over wide areas and/or with ground-based pilots who primarily monitor flight.  The 737MAX will fly again, there is too much pressure to increase passenger air traffic, and too few airplane models and manufacturers to satisfy the demand. (more here)  But now the productive dialogue has begun between manufacturers, regulators, and airlines to plan for the inevitable advent of smart, autonomous, and much safer aircraft; especially when suborbital hypersonic aircraft are introduced with flight profiles that require orders of magnitude more complex decisions to be made and correctly executed in milliseconds.

‘American Liberty Depends on the Deep State’ argues noted historian Francis (“the end of history”) Fukuyama.  He ties his lamentably weak arguments to an unfortunately partisan definition which is more true than false.  Today’s ‘deep state’ is the ‘administrative state’ of yesteryear that is now composed of “unelected officials who are supposedly partisan Democrats ready to do anything to undermine the Trump presidency.”  In the sequel he ignores the overwhelming evidence that gives credence to such a definition.  He claims that all “modern democracies” like the US need deep state governance “because it is crucial to fighting corruption and upholding the rule of law”, ignoring the record of the wide incidence of corruption and criminality that hides in a byzantinely structured deep state.  Fukuyama lauds the supposed meritocracy of the deep state establishments of Britain, France, Germany, …, without any comparison of the relative benefits over the US that these countries have enjoyed.  The Pendleton Act of 1883 was supposed to make our civil service a meritocracy.  As we all know, it did not.  Our historian ends his apologetic for the deep state with a red herring, citing a scenario in which our president (hint Trump) refuses to leave office at the end of his term and orders the military to protect his stay.  Then it would be only through the good graces of the deep state that such a president would not be defended and would have to vacate his office.  Astounding!

More left-leaners than right-leaners now appear to make up the cohort of RR commenters.  This is apparent from just a simple count of the handles used by the progressives.  I have no idea how the total readership breaks down, but I suspect there are at least as many of the Left as of the Right.  It is certain that they follow the content of this website with great interest and attention, taking every opportunity to counter the slings and arrows we launch against their ideology cum religion.  As I have stated for years, their presence is more than welcome, else we would be an echo chamber as are almost all socio-political sites of the liberal persuasion.  A local leftwing weblog serves as an ample illustration of the effects of such censorship of opposing thought.  Well, that’s not the entire reason for its dearth of comment streams – it is also poorly edited, filled with bulletin board boring and narcoleptically numbing topics, and empty of any intellectual challenges to its occasional stasist and statist progressive mantras.  However, for completeness we do feature it in Our Links found in the left panel.

Stephen Miller, Trump administration senior adviser and a Jew, is an example of a target of leftwing attack as being anti-Semitic simply because he cited news reported on Breitbart.  These Democrat congresscritters want him fired. (more here)  They accuse him of "documented support for white nationalist and virulently anti-immigrant tropes (which) is wholly unacceptable and disqualifying for a government employee."  There is no evidence of either that they can present or that even exists.  Mr Miller is white and presumably a nationalist.  He is not anti-immigrant but simply against illegal entry into the United States.  So none of the accusing Democrat Jews can give a coherent definition of nationalism or show why embracing such a socio-political stance is somehow toxic to this country.  Neither can they defend porous borders that permit the illegal entry of hordes of foreigners with unknown diseases, crime records, skill levels, disjoint cultures, and doubtful allegiance to everything that America has stood for in the past (before our anti-American left has begun making its mark).

'OK Boomer!'

Woke free speech is now defined as the right to interrupt others' speech.

George Rebane

‘OK Boomer!’ is the new dismissive epithet directed at anyone older by Millennials and post-Millennials (e.g. Generation Z).  Its most common usage is as a retort to attempted guidance from the older generation, today simply known by the label ‘Boomer’.  Baby Boomer (born 1947-64) is now passé and too restrictive.  The young moderns would like to simplify things as much as possible in order to function in a society that endowed them with a terribly deficient education and lexicon.  They resent learning that they are forced to make do from the dark side of the great knowledge gap, and they justifiably take exception to that.

But they are overreacting.  Instead of attempting to correct their deficits, they reject wisdom a fortiori if it comes from those who have been successful in life.  ‘Boomer’ is now attributed by some to be the new N-word, especially when directed toward white male seniors.  And ‘OK Boomer’ is delivered as the blatant rejection that conveys, ‘You have nothing to teach us.’

So here is a generation who have yet to develop skills that can continue creating wealth at any level close to their plans to then take that wealth from other people, and spend it to create a world like that which their Marxist mentors have taught.  And they are now so stupid that they refuse to do what previous generations have done since time immemorial – stand on the shoulders of those who built and work the world which today gives them the ability to create a future without a successful past.

Risk Analysis with Subjective EMAB Distributions

George Rebane

A few years back I introduced to our more technically oriented readers a new approach to capture and work with subjective random variables.  In ‘Predicting with Expressed Beliefs – a formal approach’ the Mode Augmented Boxcar (MAB) probability distribution was made available in a report which described its derivation and various useful applications.  Among the advantages of EMAB is its compatibility with Bayesian analysis.  In this piece I share with readers the Expanded MAB (EMAB), present its formal derivation (TR1908-1), and provide two tools that further explicate and support its uses.  You can download all three files here –

Download TR1908-1_EMABderivation

Download EMABworksheet

Download ProposalRiskAnalysis2

The following scenario illustrates but one of the many uses of EMAB, and assumes that the reader is generally familiar with the MAB distribution.

Suppose you head up an engineering company contemplating responding to an RFP, and want to know the financial risk in doing the job were you to win the contract.  The work will be done and billed on a ‘cost plus’ (cost plus fixed fee) basis.  There will be four separate deliverables D1, D2, D3, D4 that are to be produced in sequence – each succeeding deliverable must be tested with those previously completed.  Due to job particulars, the fee percentages F_i on related costs C_i of each Di (i = 1, … ,4) will be negotiated individually.  The customer also states that the entire project must be completed within a time interval T_C = 60 weeks of contract start date, and that 1% of the total contract price will be subtracted for every week late of all deliverables.