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15 February 2009

Comments

Russ Steele

George, thanks for the good review. I agree with your technology assessment and the Singularity impact. Much to discuss here.

To have a better understanding of the conflict between Mexico and the United States readers should check out and read Mexifornia: A State of Becoming. Victor Davis Hanson describes the demographic time bomb that we are sitting on with a shrinking white elite nearing retirement and ready to be subsidized by more numerous, poorly compensated and younger Mexicans. In 50 years the California populations will be more than 2/3 of Mexican heritage. Most will be unassimilated, and not members of the middle class, but will control the power of the ballot box. They could vote to return California to Mexico.


I do not agree with George Friedman’s global warming assessment, he claim the reductions in population and solar energy from space will solve the problem over the next hundred years. I have only seen a video clip of his position, but have ordered his book for a closer look. It would appear that he believes in the greenhouse effect and suggest we will be getting our solar power from space. We may be getting a lot of cooling some space as well, if in the next 50 years we enter a significant cooling which will reduce agricultural output starving millions around the globe. This will certainly reduce the worlds population. Perhaps a black swan not covered in the book? More in this issue after I read the book.

dlw

well, we all tend to get somewhat reductionistic by virtue of our tendencies to elevate our areas of relative expertise.

I'd say that the red queen effect may get stymied somewhat if the post-Cold War US evolves its democracy through the use of proportional representation in more local elections to take a bite out of the extent to which our current system, due to its near exclusive use of winner-takes-all elections, tends to lead to single-party domination at the state and national politics. We don't need to swing towards a near exclusive use of proportional representation, we simply need to use it somewhat for seemingly less important elections and the net result will be less gerrymandering, negative campaigning, and a redirection of political outsiders' activism to decentralized local third parties that persistently employ the "politics of Gandhi" to influence the location of the center, making our system more of a melding, rather than a melting, pot, which will both stymie our neo-Imperialism and mitigate the impact of cultural wars by giving hybrid groups more opportunities to constructively re frame their wedge-issues.

I'd also say that one shouldn't discount the fact that differences among Protestant and Catholic believers are increasingly getting mitigated such that there should be an ample supply of intermediary peace-makers between traditional USAmericans and Mexican Americans.

George Rebane

Interesting notion of "an ample supply of inter-mediary peace makers" dlw. Could you expand on what would motivate these peace-makers to make what kind of a sustainable peace once the Mexican Cession assumes the tipping point socio-political structure Friedman describes?

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