Rebane's Ruminations

Ruminations - 30jun2009

George Rebane

We read a lot around this house.  Breakfast invariably includes the WSJ and our local Union.  Periodically I get on my high-horse about the asinine columns written by financial reporters, and this morning WSJ’s Mark Gongloff piqued my ire with his ‘no information’ piece on the movement of bond and stock prices yesterday.  Like many of his ilk, he uses notions like ‘investors were buying’ and ‘bond holders were selling’ in the attempt to reveal some causal backing to price movements.  What these sophomores apparently don’t understand – or think that the reader doesn’t understand – is that if investors were buying, then other investors must have been selling.    And if investors were buying/selling from/to other investors, then there is no information in the article, most certainly not any revelation of the causal factors behind the published and now obvious price movements.  Who the hell do guys like Gongloff think is on the other end of the trade, the local neighborhood tapeworm?  All this sounds like stuff being composed (composted?) as editorial content straight out of the Tautology Central School of Journalism.

On to brighter things.  This morning’s Union had a good piece of venting by Jeff Ackerman about the ongoing insanity in Sacramento and how it affects our local Empire Mine State Park.  What I wish Jeff would have explained in more detail was the apparent self-funding aspect of the park.  If it is cost neutral to the state, why close it as a cost saving measure?  Something is missing here.  Also Vicki Fortini wrote an excellent piece on the current Tea Party movement across the country that so irritates those neighbors who would like to see our taxes raised.  Jo Ann and I are part of the dangerous horde of Napolitano’s “right-wing extremists” as witnessed by our recent participation in Tea Party events.  But then you knew that.

Roger Altman, former Clinton Deputy Sec Treasury, advises us that we may soon have a national value added tax (VAT) to fund, in part, Obama’s program of hopeless change.  But more revealing in his 30jun09 WSJ ‘We’ll Need to Raise Taxes Soon’ are the latest economic projections that analyze the Obama budgets to pay for America’s great transformation.  It turns out that bloggers like me were on the money when we called out the White House fiscal propaganda artists a couple of months ago.  We will be running deficits close to 4% of GDP through the next decade (that’s about a trillion dollars a year) which will keep our annual GDP growth at about 2%, and give us a national debt of about 83% of GDP by 2019.  Now those of you with a handy ‘back of the envelope’ can join me in this little exercise – pencils ready?

Today’s GDP is about $14 trillion, so in ten years at 2% per annum growth, our GDP will be 14*(1+0.02)^10 = $17 trillion.  And our national debt will then be 0.83*17 = $14+ trillion.  This debt will be serviced at, say, 5%.  So the annual cost just to service the debt will be 0.05*14 = $700 billion which will be 700/17,000 = 4+% of GDP.  Remember, in all this we are not paying down one penny of the overall national debt.  We’re just making interest payments so the Chinese won’t get piqued (the more polite form of pissed).  The punch line is how all this will impact the hunk that the feds already take out of GDP every year.  During times of prosperity and growth, that fraction has been about 20%.  But as the good professor Art Laffer has shown, we’re on the back side of his curve, so taking out more of the GDP in taxes will most certainly increase our misery index (remember that from the 1970s).  Now you can crumple and toss that envelope. 

One thing you can bet the farm on though, reality will be worse, much worse if hopeless change becomes the law of the land.  (The astute reader can immediately see another compelling reason why the dollar must be inflated to smithereens during this interval.)  Compared to government, Madoff was a piker.

Congressman McClintock Comes to Our House

George Rebane

Where but in America can a poor immigrant boy just off the boat (in 1949) have the privilege of hosting his Congressman, along with many friends and neighbors, for a lunch at his house?  That is where over forty of us welcomed Congressman Tom McClintock and some of his staff for an al fresco affair under the trees on this warm day with a thankful breeze that kept the air moving.

Last spring Kim Pruett, Tom’s field rep in Nevada County, invited us to put on this little do, and then did a great job in helping get the word out and getting the congressman here on time.  Jo Ann and I are twenty-year fans and supporters of Tom, and we got a little excited about this gig.  Our previous experience was hosting candidates who spoke to smaller groups inside our house.  For us this was big stuff, and, as always, my sweetie-pie rose to the occasion.  Lots of discussions about alternative signage, sitting arrangements, food, drink, trash, parking of cars, it all came together – Ike would have been proud.

In the end, the thing was set up as Jo Ann wanted it, and when the all the folks arrived, they did pretty much what they wanted anyway.  It all worked out beautifully, thanks to the crew of stalwarts who arrived early to help, and help they did.  Thanks to all and to those who brought even more goodies.  It was a real neighborhood deal.

After everybody loaded their plates and sat down, Congressman Tom gave us an overview of some of the battles going on in Congress, especially with the recent action on the Waxman-Markey (cap n’ tax) bill and the upcoming healthcare legislation.  As always, Tom’s encyclopedic knowledge of American history and who’s on first was very impressive.  Then came the Q&A and group discussion part.

The Department of Peace

George Rebane

There is a bill (HR808) before Congress to create a cabinet level Department of Peace (DOP).

The movement to expand the Executive Branch in this direction is quietly gathering steam among the country’s progressives.  Their social theoretician is a Howard Rosenberg, a journalist and social critic who appears to be a cartoon of the progressive left-winger.  His essay – ‘A Strategy for the Dept. of Peace to Enhance National Security’ – could not be improved upon by the writers of Saturday Night Live.  A snippet –

Within this strategy, the role of The Peace Alliance/Department of Peace will be the "systems architect" and facilitator to establish a self-organizing network of capabilities (nonviolent conflict resolution, micro-finance, business, environmental stewardship, truth and justice, women and children's rights, healthcare rights, etc.) focused on peacebuilding by strengthening the capacity for civil society throughout the world.   The idea is that, while virtually all the "raw" capabilities exist to do this, the management challenge is how do we orchestrate various organizations (NGOs, businesses, educational institutions, government agencies, military, police, healthcare, etc.) to holistically come together, share a common vision, work as a team, and build the capacity for a strong and vibrant civil society, while respecting diverse cultural perspectives.

In this he also gives away that the progenitor outfit, The Peace Alliance, will have more than a cozy relationship – a la ACORN? – with the new DOP.

Ruminations - 27jun2009 (updated)

George Rebane

Federalization of states is starting to pick up speed (background here).  California is being joined by fourteen other states in the line-up at the Treasury loans window (more here from Reuters).  They too have run out of money to pay for various obligations, and must now start studying the considerable Owner’s Manual of Federal Loans, Dispensations, and Stimuli that comes with every federal dollar.

As ‘Cap n’ Tax’ (HR2454) is rolling through Congress, we see in yesterday’s WSJ –

Among the many reasons President Barack Obama and the Democratic majority are so intent on quickly jamming a cap-and-trade system through Congress is because the global warming tide is again shifting. It turns out Al Gore and the United Nations (with an assist from the media), did a little too vociferous a job smearing anyone who disagreed with them as "deniers." The backlash has brought the scientific debate roaring back to life in Australia, Europe, Japan and even, if less reported, the U.S.

For more, read ‘The Climate Change Climate Change - The number of skeptics is swelling everywhere.’

[update] The full text of HR2454 can be obtained from here.

Yesterday our Congressman Tom McClintock delivered this speech in House chambers during the HR2454 debate.  Entitled 'Our Generation's Smoot-Hawley', it is short and to the point

Madam Speaker:

When we discuss Herbert Hoover’s mishandling of the recession of 1929, the first thing that economists point to is the Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act that imposed new taxes on over 20,000 imported products.  The Waxman-Markey Bill is our generation’s Smoot-Hawley.  It imposes new taxes on an infinitely larger number of domestic products on a scale that utterly dwarfs Smoot-Hawley.

At least Hoover could argue that Smoot Hawley made domestic products more competitive with imports.  Waxman-Markey disadvantages American products.  When California adopted similar restrictions three years ago, we, too, were promised an explosion of green jobs.  Instead, California’s unemployment rate has skyrocketed to one of the highest in the country.

If this bill becomes law, I believe history guarantees us two things. One: the planet will continue to warm and cool as it has been doing for billions of years. And two: Congress will have just delivered a staggering blow to our nation’s economy just at the moment when it’s the most vulnerable.

In the 26jun09 WSJ we have 'The Albany-Trenton-Sacramento Disease' from which -

President Obama has bet the economy on his program to grow the government and finance it with a more progressive tax system. It's hard to miss the irony that he's pitching this change in Washington even as the same governance model is imploding in three of the largest American states where it has been dominant for years -- California, New Jersey and New York.

Finally, the naïf (confused about small town politics) asked the stately Bonze of Community Conscience, who was sitting in the bliss of self-absorbed meditation, ‘Master, what then is the sound of the One Mouth yapping?’

A fine is a tax for doing wrong. A tax is a fine for doing well.

 

NC ARRA Funds Start to Trickle

George Rebane

Folks, we are stimulated at last!  The county received $60K during the last week.  Thanks to Leann Whitaker of CEO Rick Haffey’s office, who called to explain that the funds will be used to implement low-energy measures for low income housing in Nevada County.  But sonuvagun, the American Redistribution and Re-election Act of 2009 is finally beginning to trickle down.  More details here.

 

Michael Jackson, RIP

George Rebane

I was not a fan of Michael Jackson, but I celebrated his rise from lower middle-class beginnings to international stardom and fame - the former because I am not able to understand his music or its performance; the latter, because his life is yet another testimony to the unique magnificence of this land of liberty and opportunity.

His troubled life will now be fashioned into one of our national myths, a myth that will most likely be embraced more by the young and the have-nots.  As do the careers and prefabricated personas of professional athletes, his myth will undoubtedly inspire many young people to forsake education – as did he – and go directly for the golden ring.  The chances for grabbing that ring have not improved over the decades.

Yet he was a generous man with an enormous talent that gave him life and his fans joy every time he stepped on the stage or in front of the cameras.  We should remember him for those gifts.

Hockeystick Hansen Hesitates

George Rebane

 

Washington, DC - NASA scientist James Hansen, perhaps the most vocal voice in the U.S. warning of a man-made global warming crisis, has declared he hopes Congressional efforts to pass a cap-and-trade climate bill fail. "I hope cap and trade doesn't pass, because we need a much more effective approach,” Hansen said during a keynote lecture at Columbia University's climate conference on May 2, 2009.

This report on climatedepot.com by Marc Morano details the 11th hour machinations going on as the Waxman-Markey (Cap and Tax) bill comes up for a vote tomorrow.  Not to worry, Hansen has had no epiphany on the bogus climate models he has been promoting for the last decade or so.  The man who introduced us to the notorious global temperature ‘hockeystick’ just doesn’t think that the bill goes far enough, and considers its carbon trading provisions “verging on a giant scam”. 

Nobody in Congress actually knows what this bill contains, much less about the devastation it will cause to the country.  Hansen just wants much more of it.  And the line of catastrophes that Washington is prepared to launch is just getting longer.  Our only hope now is that government, in its inimitable and numberless ways, will screw up implementing these social and economic pogroms so that the damage will not be as comprehensive as projected.  But, of course, they can screw up in the other direction just as well, and make it even worse.

We wait, watch, and wonder.

(More on Russ Steele's NC Media Watch)

Obamacare vs Healthcare

George Rebane

While Congress is crafting climate and energy rationing legislation (HR2454) destined to cripple and/or destroy our country’s economy (see NC MediaWatch), there is yet another blow on the way – Obamacare.  As the old song sang – ‘If the right one won’t a-getcha, then the left one will!’

(A physician tends to a mortally ill child in Sir Luke Fildes’s 1891 painting ‘The Doctor.’)

The left one, now going through the back rooms of the Capitol, is the loudly promised ‘Healthcare Reform’ that will redefine and regulate over one-sixth of our GDP.  How this sausage is being made cannot stand the light of day it so badly needs.  Our President is again demanding that another historical revision of our society be rushed through with minimal visibility, congressional comprehension, and public debate.  In spite of this we should, while we still can, all take the time to study and tell our electeds our opinions on the matter.  In this piece we take a look at some national and local analyses of this critical issue.

Ruminations - 24jun2009 (updated)

George Rebane

Barney Frank almost surprised me tonight.  He actually said he was against appending “unrelated issues” to bills going through Congress.  But then I forgot, the sumbich is a liar.  He proceeded to tell Bill O’Reilly that he plans to pay for Obamacare by 1) reducing the DOD budgets, 2) eliminating our military presence in the EU, 3) reducing NASA budgets – forget the Mars trip for the next couple of generations, and maybe even 4) reduce (eliminate?) the farm subsidies.

Even though I abhor the European attitude about milking the US taxpayer to keep their peace, we have to remember that we’re there to protect our own hide.  We should look at them as the expendable buffer we have to maintain, and nothing more – which is exactly what they think we are thinking.  However, as a careful perusal of RR reveals, I would back ol’ Barney if he ever did get serious about ditching farm subsidies.  The family farm is an expensive relic, and the large corporate farmers have learned to bribe politicians – a task simpler than it looks.

The Congressman and Chairman of the House Finance Committee finished in ‘vintage Barney’ style by declaring that Obama was not doing anything more to promote anti-capitalist policies than did Bush – only Obama and his congressional chorus are now going to do it right. Right.

Dick Morris, former Clinton adviser, had another cut on how we all will pay for Obamacare.  It’s called ‘Denial of Service’.  The stats on how socialist policies, in countries starting with Canada and sweeping through the EU, affect quality of life and disease survival rates are pretty grim (see Catastrophe).  Basically, there you simply die instead of wasting all that money during the last six months of your life.  Daschle told us to brace ourselves for just that in the coming years.

[update] A retired banker and RR reader just forwarded this link to a database of government employees in California drawing pensions of over $100,000 a year.  And the Sierra Bravos in Sacramento and elsewhere are still trying to raise our taxes to cover the state and local deficits.  I noted that we even have a couple of modest prize winners here in Nevada County. 

Singularity Signposts – 24jun2009

George Rebane

Forbes.com has an excellent extended survey of the current state and portents of AI and robotics.  ‘The AI Report’ is comprised of 24 short articles for the intelligent non-technical reader.  They range from descriptions of how machine or artificial intelligence is currently being developed and embodied, to how AI and robots are being used in corporate and institutional environments.  Various authors conjecture on our progress to the Singularity; all agree that there will be an eventual intimate melding of man and machine.  And this has already started.

RR readers new to these pages will gain a better understanding of my own extension of these technology advances to current and near-term socio-political themes.  The bottom line is very simple – if I don’t understand the advances in machine intelligence and robotics, then I will neither comprehend nor be able to interpret the tsunamis that are reshaping today's social issues such as healthcare, unemployment, education, security, finance, entertainment, and technology abetted tyranny.  In that state of ignorance I will have these issues framed only by a politician’s blather.  If I can’t grasp what a wheel is, I will have a hard time talking about cars.  It is that fundamental.

We deserve only the future that we are able and willing to shape.

Summer Science/Math Festival Starts in July

George Rebane

Wayne Watson, Nevada County’s ‘Mr Science Guy’, will sponsor and host “a Summer Science (and mathematics) Video Festival beginning July 8th. This is an opportunity to meet and perhaps share your interests in science, as well as enjoy some very interesting science from the past into the future. The material should be suitable for high school to adult ages.”

His email goes on to describe the program –

The festival consists of about 2 hours of science videos weekly that I have in my collection, from which I've selected topics for this purpose. The topics range from astronomy, biology, mathematics, evolution to psychology. The videos will be shown in the community room of the County Library on Wednesdays from 7:30 to 9:30 over five weeks, as below. There is no charge for attendance, but donations to defray cost of renting the room will be appreciated.  I'll be using the large screen in the room and my video/computer projector.  The first showing will be:

Ruminations – 23jun2009

George Rebane

Virginia Brunini is heading up a petition drive to save state funding for our Empire Mine State Park.  She states that the state park accounts for about $10 million of imported cash into our local economy.  This initiative is backed by a number of local organizations including the ERC.  If you wish to support the effort and sign a petition that will be presented to the state legislature in the next couple of days, please go here.

The county and local agencies are all scrambling to write proposals to get as much as possible of the federal stimulus air drop of newly printed dollars promised by the Obama administration.  This entire program has been constructed as a ‘commons’ and should be treated as such by our local political and agency leaderships.  As Garrett Hardin taught us many years ago in ‘Tragedy of the Commons’, a commons punishes those who do NOT do their part in helping to deplete it – morally/ethically behaving people simply lose out.  (A short explanation of the details can be found here.)  The strategy for writing stimulus proposals to support the local economy is clear – increase the scope of every proposal, and ask for several times the money actually needed to do the job.  Everyone else will be doing that, and the feds know it.  They will push back appropriately, and if not, then rejoice and spend the money wisely.  The alternative is to strap on our moral laurels, and make do with less as others get their ‘fair’ share.

(For those who want to believe there is a way to avoid setting up a commons, Hardin offers a reasonable and ethical alternative which governments have shown an unusual ability to resist.)

Lance Comes to Town

George Rebane

Lance Armstrong came out of retirement this afternoon to win the 49th Nevada City Classic while being cheered by a town packed with about 20,000 fans.  It was a wonderful event in a wonderful setting.  But then Nevada City is my home town, and I am unabashedly biased.

Jo Ann and I went to see the race with our neighbor Jim.  His lovely wife (Saint) Mary took us into town without camping chairs (Jim’s fault), and then came back with the chairs when Jim called her just about the time she got back home.  The chairs were delivered forthwith and with good cheer.  Upon special dispensation and skipping beatification, her sanctification was rushed through, completed, and bestowed when she again came to pick us up after the races, having spent the interval caring for the sick and wounded.

It was a great day to sit on the sidewalk and cheer the athletes as they went streaming by.  Armstrong showed everyone why at 37 he still is a champion.  Good luck to him this year in France.

Sierra College – Quo Vadis?

George Rebane

[This article, sans photo, was submitted to The Union as my 20jun09 Other Voices column.  It was printed as shown here.]

Admittedly our hilltop Sierra College campus brings a number of benefits to Nevada County.  Among these are –

- Cash importer and local employer of teachers and staff;
- Provider of remedial education for our post-high school young;
- Vocational workforce (re)training;
- Fulfillment courses for all ages thereby increasing local quality of life;
- A convenient and accessible path to a four-year college;
- General contributor to the national pool of educated people.

These benefits are laudable and welcomed by the community.  But as often hailed, is the college also a source of a skilled workforce that attracts new businesses to the county?  Attracting new companies is a (the?) major driver of local economic development, and it is not clear exactly how much the college is doing in this arena.  In preparing for this piece I interviewed Messrs Aaron Klein, Sierra College Trustee, and Gil Matthew, CEO of our Economic Resource Council.  Both stated that there is no hard data on what kinds and how many skilled workers are produced by the college for local businesses.

This does not mean that our Sierra College campus contributes nothing to economic development.  Recognizing its role, Aaron Klein stated that “Sierra College is a foundational pillar of business development, but not its primary driver.”  Gil Matthew, himself a former SC student and founder of Benchmark Thermal, agrees.  Today Mr. Matthew is charged by the county’s political jurisdictions to develop and execute programs to attract new businesses.  He states unequivocally that Sierra College is part of a compelling trifecta - along with Sierra Nevada Memorial Hospital and the county’s air park – that makes our community a desirable place in which to locate and operate a business.

Nevada County ARRA Funding Update

George Rebane

The graph updates Nevada County’s progress in getting funds through the American Redistribution and Re-election Act (aka American Recovery and Reinvestment Act of 2009).  More details here. 

 

Ruminations - 17jun2009

George Rebane

Because many RR readers see various far out notions and ideas reported first in these pages, I am sometimes viewed as a wingnut and assigned to sit in a remote corner with the other fringe elements until the more established media catch up (some never do).  This is not a complaint, but a simple statement of fact.  Those who know me, know that I wear such appellations as a badge of honor – my days will be over when I start bleating with the flock.

Geo-engineering is the new watchword in the global warming hysteria.  I wrote of its dangers starting way back in the 23jan08 piece ‘Climate Change – A Format for Reasoned Dialogue’.  On Russ Steele’s NC Media Watch I commented on the recent WSJ spread on geo-engineering.  And now the respectable The Atlantic is also weighing in - ‘Re-engineering the Earth’ - on the latest idiocy that calls for the immediate dispensing of sulfur dioxide particulates into the atmosphere to cool an already cooling earth.  They caution –

As the threat of global warming grows more urgent, a few scientists are considering radical—and possibly extremely dangerous—schemes for reengineering the climate by brute force. Their ideas are technologically plausible and quite cheap. So cheap, in fact, that a rich and committed environmentalist could act on them tomorrow. And that’s the scariest part.

More people are beginning to crowd into my corner.
 

The Devolved States of America

George Rebane

Various ways to devolve the United States are on the minds of more and more people as Obama’s grab and spend juggernaut gathers steam.  RR readers are familiar with this notion under the label of the ‘Great Divide’ which was most recently described in ‘Follow the Federal Money to the Great Divide’ on 21feb09.  Now the 13jun09 WSJ, one of the world’s leading newspapers, features a banner article on the secessionist organizations and movements across the nation.  ‘Divided We Stand’ by Paul Starobin is an eye-opening summary of how different parts of the country have been reacting to the growing autocracy from Washington.  After all, our Founders did anticipate that this state of affairs might arise, wrote about it extensively, and enshrined contingency plans in our Constitution.  And Obama may be just the man to pull the trigger on this.  Starobin observes –

There might be an austere Republic of New England, with a natural strength in higher education and technology; a Caribbean-flavored city-state Republic of Greater Miami, with an anchor in the Latin American economy; and maybe even a Republic of Las Vegas with unfettered license to pursue its ambitions as a global gambling, entertainment and conventioneer destination. California? America’s broke, ill-governed and way-too-big nation-like state might be saved, truly saved, not by an emergency federal bailout, but by a merciful carve-up into a trio of republics that would rely on their own ingenuity in making their connections to the wider world. And while we’re at it, let’s make this project bi-national—economic logic suggests a natural multilingual combination between Greater San Diego and Mexico’s Northern Baja, and, to the Pacific north, between Seattle and Vancouver in a megaregion already dubbed “Cascadia” by economic cartographers.

Doing their best to help Washington move American sentiment in this direction is the MSM – our vaunted Fourth Estate.  Libertarian John Ziegler produced ‘Media Malpractice’, a documentary on the media’s role in Obama’s election, making a compelling case for its ‘death of journalism’ thesis.  The DVD contains extensive use of video and audio clips, and ends with a provocative challenge for the Left to put together a similar pro-MSM apologetic.  Pay particular attention to the results of the Zogby and Wilson Research polls.

Inflation – It’s a’comin’!

George Rebane

Inflation, perhaps hyper-inflation of the Weimar variety, is in our future.  It seems that daily another economist, tallying up the fed’s unfunded liabilities, adds to it another handful of trillions (that is not a typo).  To keep things in perspective, our country’s current GDP is about $14 trillion, and the fed vacuums up about 20+% of that annually from us.  Then it goes on to borrow another 10 to 20% from people still silly enough to keep lending to us.  So the current estimate of the country’s unfunded liabilities has now climbed over the $100 trillion mark.

This sum is beyond rational thought, so our rational(?) reaction to it is that we don’t think about it.  Do you?  Of course not.

But, dear Reader, if you were to think about it, you’d know that there is no way on this earth that those anticipating the receipt of these monies, with anywhere near the buying power of today’s dollar, will get what our government continues to promise them.

Ruminations - 10jun2009

George Rebane

Supervisor John Spencer emailed me a heads up on the progress of Nevada County’s massive influx of ARRA funds.  Obama’s American Redistribution and Re-election Act of 2009 (or something like that) was supposed to get money into the shovel-ready hinterlands double quick.  The county records our progress on the homepage of its website MyNevadaCounty.com.  We add that the county has and continues to spend monies up front, in hopes of getting the promised ARRA reimbursements.  I wonder if those reimbursements will be calculated with the time value of money taken into account.  Not much to report yet, but RR is starting a plot of how we are faring in this effort to muscle our way up to the trough.  Here’s what the plot will look like with past data from the county CEO’s office (thank you Leann Whitaker).

  

Some cultural memories are long, as witnessed by the nearby photo of our latest war memorial somewhere up in Washington state.  This was sent by an RR reader and Vietnam vet with whom I had the pleasure to serve in Germany.  I believe that other states over the years have also established monuments of similar functionality to Tokyo Rose, Axis Sally, and, of course, our own Hanoi Jane.

Look what’s in the newspaper now

George Rebane

The WSJ has now joined a small group of news outlets that is testing the use of influence factors diagrams (IFDs) to explicate matters of public policy, economics, and the workings of social systems in general.  I’m not sure this is a breakthrough yet, but the direction is encouraging.

In the 8jun09 WSJ Mark Gongloff writes a short article ‘Landmines Pock the Road to Recovery’, explaining what things can go right and wrong with the recovery.  He uses the Goldilocks approach of ‘too hot, too cold, and just right’.  There are many factors that interact in each of these scenarios, and the article would have to be a lot longer than a couple of pages if he didn’t use the graphic IFDs to help out.  In fact, writing it out would probably have made it unreadable, in addition to being almost impossible to understand.  From all those words, the reader would have had to cobble together an IFD in his head, which is what we do anyway in such cases.

In the system sciences we have used IFDs for decades in the design, explication, and documentation of complex systems.  Over the years a lot of systems science concepts and terms have leaked out into common usage – ‘in the loop’, ‘feedback’, ‘on line’, … .  At the outset their use is always resisted by the philistines and rejected as ‘jargon’.  But let some years pass as the underlying technologies become more familiar, and then the non-techies will finally see the benefits, and our everyday language expands and becomes more efficient.

There Must Be Some Mistake …

George Rebane

Historically American presidents have been vetted to the nth degree by the media and opponents who have pointed out some of the most intimate details in the backgrounds of those who seek to lead us.  Barack Hussein Obama arrived on the scene to tearful, cheering throngs who saw in him the long-awaited arrival of ‘the man on a white horse’, the Savior.  Then those who asked for information about him, so that the country could form an opinion from the record, were ignored or brushed aside.  His supporters had no patience with such mundane things, to them his own words from the pulpit were more than enough.  And so he was crowned.

Today we have a man in office making momentous changes that can and may sweep this republic into the dustbin of history, and we know almost nothing about him.  His known background amounts to light fluff sprinkled over his adoring supporters.  I cannot believe that we still don’t know or have access to his –

Occidental College records,
Columbia College records,
Columbia Thesis paper,
Harvard College records,
Selective Service Registration,
Medical records,
Illinois State Senate records,
Illinois State Senate schedule,
Law practice client list,
Certified Copy of his original Birth certificate,
Legally embossed, signed paper Certification of Live Birth,
Harvard Law Review articles that were published,
University of Chicago scholarly articles,
Record of baptism.

Can anyone tell me if I’ve overlooked the obvious, and all this is available on some website not known to me?  Or has all this been ordered sealed for some reason or purpose as being too classified and clandestine for the American electorate to know?  Why aren’t these documents, standard documents that form the indelible record of our Chief Executive, not available for free inspection?  And why is everyone being so quiet about this?  Shhhh.

 

Billions and billions and billions and …

George Rebane

And we in California thought we’d be only forty or fifty billion in the hole by next year.  Well, it turns out that there are more bumblings coming out of the woodwork.  The state unemployment fund, already on life support from the feds, will be almost twenty more billion in the hole next year (more here thanks to an RR reader).  Let’s see, that comes to a total of almost $70,000,000,000.  Recall my remarks about California becoming the first federalized state, well I think that there’s another area in which we will break new ground.  Our governor will be the first state chief executive to be replaced by a pager – it will be part of an overall cost saving program, since the orders will soon come from Washington directly to California’s departments of government.

And here’s another first for you loyal RR readers.  We all became aware that the car companies did what is called ‘banking jobs’ – come in, read magazines and watch TV, go home, collect check.  I predict that within five years Congress will pass ‘labor set aside laws’ that mandate certain areas in the labor market which cannot be further automated.  By law the government will try to side-step technological progress by saying that this job and that task will forever be performed only by human beings – machines need not apply.  I bet this'll solve the nation's problem of the permanently unemployable, and get us back on track.

A Nice Gathering of Neighbors

George Rebane

Jo Ann and I were out at the fairgrounds today with about 300 local friends and neighbors at the Nevada County Tea Party organized by our own Tea Party Patriots chapter.  We were hootin’ it up and listening to music and some dignitaries explain to us what we already knew, but we wanted to hear it again so we’d get it right.

Congressman Tom McClintock gave the keynote and stole a line from the liberals – “Agitate, agitate, agitate!”.  I suppose even we silent “extremists” need to be kicked in the pants to get us going.  By my count there were still a lot of folks at home busy feeding their gold fish.  Anyway, that Tom sure has a good grasp of government and history.  Too bad the gebronies have him badly outnumbered in Washington.  In any event, during these hard times it’s always good to be out and among a crowd that sees the same world that you do.  Reading the news and looking at what’s going on around the world, it sometimes gets to feel mighty lonely.  And misery does love company, hope our next gathering brings out even more.

There seemed to be only one reporter from the media with all her equipment strapped on and interviewing the dignitaries.  For a better view of the goings on, go to Russ’s NC Media Watch.  That man just sat there with his little camera glued to his eyeball, snapping away at anything and everything - he put the rest of us photogs to shame hoarding them little bits in our own cameras.  Hell, when I finished my parsimonious picture popping, I had only about 970 pictures left.

Busting the Prop 13 Myth

George Rebane

For years Prop 13 has been blamed for California’s financial woes by our liberal friends.  Their main point is that, given population growth and inflation, somehow the state has lost out over the years in bringing in revenues from property taxes.  A correspondent pointed me to a recent piece by Chris Reed in the San Diego Union-Tribune’s blog that sets the ground work to show that state revenues have not suffered due to Prop 13.  Reed got a ton of comments on this post that commend and condemn his conclusion.  However, none of the commenters look at the data from the correct perspective.  Had Reed done what I show below, the comment thread might have been more illuminating, especially from the left.

Here’s Reed’s data for the 1980 to 2007 time window which are not contended.  Population rose from 24 to 38 million.  Annual property taxes revenues rose from $6.36 to $43.16 billion.  The Consumer Price Index that measures inflation rose from 88 to 202.4.

The important and revealing metric to assess the impact of Prop 13 is the inflation adjusted per capita revenues that the state has enjoyed over this period.  Everyone knows that since Prop 13 the state has found many other areas and activities from which to squeeze tribute out of us during the last 27 years.  So let’s see if the passage of Prop 13 has somehow caused collected property taxes to fall behind in contributing their share to the state’s coffers.

1980 per capita property tax was $6,360,000,000/24,000,000 = $265.00.
2007 per capita property tax was $43,160,000,000/38,000,000 = $1,135.80.

The CPI increase gave us a total inflation of 202.4/88 – 1 = 2.3 – 1 = 1.3 = 130%.

The inflation adjusted 2007 per capita property tax then becomes $1,135.80/2.3 = $493.82.

The inflation adjusted percent increase is then $493.82/$265.00 - 1 = 1.864 – 1 = 86.4% more than inflation increased during the 27 year interval.

Putting it another way, the state’s annual property tax revenues increased at a rate
(1.864)^(1/27) – 1 = 1.023 – 1 = 2.3% over that of inflation.  And since the average annual inflation rate over that period was (2.3)^(1/27) – 1 = 1.031 – 1 = 3.1%, the state pulled in property tax revenues that grew at a 2.3%/3.1% = 74.2% higher rate than needed to keep pace with the 1980 per capita property tax receipts. 

Short answer, Prop 13 has not kept the long hand of government from taking more money and buying power from us year after year over most of the last three decades.  Now you know.

Tea Party Time Again!

George Rebane

Hundreds of thousands of us were designated “right wing extremists” by our federal government on 15 April 2009.  If you missed out, tomorrow is your chance to join your friends and neighbors at the Nevada County Fairgrounds and set the matter right once and for all.  The appellation was bestowed on us by Ms Napolitano and her Department of Homeland Security.  And as usual with such left-wing bête noire, it was promptly buried by their obedient MSM.  I posted (here) on Napolitano’s infamous report that was not supposed to be seen by the plain folks in the hinterlands, most certainly not by us right wing extremists.  Ollie North wrote the definitive response, to which I as a combat arms veteran subscribe.  Thanks to an RR reader, you can read it here (below the poster), and meditate upon it on the eve of our next gathering tomorrow.  Hope to see you there.