Reverend Bayes and the Muslim

George Rebane

The Ft Hood shootings have left me shocked, saddened, and dismayed.  But perhaps not in the way most of the country is reacting to this terrible news tonight from Texas.  What is now known is that Major Malik Nadal Hasan, an Army psychiatrist, methodically opened fire with two handguns in a troop processing hall where he killed twelve soldiers and wounded 31 more before being shot himself.  He will survive.

It took some hours for the Army and media to reveal that the Major was a Muslim, during which hours the man’s name was known but not revealed.  Then it came to light that the killer (I don’t have to use any of this ‘alleged’ stuff to belabor the known and verified) was born and raised here in an American Muslim family.  He was commissioned through the Virginia Tech ROTC program and seemed to all outside observers to be flying hot, true, and normal in the progress of his Army career.   Normal, that is, until he began to voice Islamic sentiments to his colleagues about American foreign policy and military involvement in Iraq and Afghanistan.  And then he decided to sacrifice himself as the assassin of unsuspecting innocents he had sworn to defend with his life.

How do I chew and digest all this information in light of what I have learned, and what has been reported to us about the resurgence of radicalized militant Islam and its global objectives?  I must look at it through the only lens I have.  For good or ill, I am a child, student, and defender of western civilization.  It’s in my double helix.

I also spent my turn manning the ramparts of our country (First Lieutenant, Artillery, retired), and then more years designing its weapons of war.  This experience has made a lasting impression on me and others similarly blessed.  It served to grind my lens.

The Reverend Thomas Bayes (1702 - 1761) is best remembered for giving mankind the means to correctly incorporate new and uncertain observations/knowledge into an existing belief system.  Today the Bayes Theorem underpins everything from moon landings, GPS, medical technology, worldwide communications, financial investments, internet search, optimal emergency response strategies, genetic engineering, interpretation of data, diagnostics, automated reasoning (artificial intelligence), and more areas than can be enumerated here.  Without Bayes, we would not recognize our world.

Bayesian analysis also supports enquiries into such problems as ‘given the data from the Ft Hood shootings, how should we deal with Muslims in our military?’  Unfortunately, our culture has now weaned itself of both the will and wisdom to address defense of culture issues.  We cannot even formulate the question for a discussion in the public media.  It is simply out of the new bounds we have set for ourselves.

Consider this, Major Hasan had no other distinguishing attributes that may have predicted his killing spree, save that he was a discontent Muslim in an advanced 21st century culture, the very existence of which gives lie to most of Islam’s deepest teachings.

Islam is undoubtedly the world’s most powerful religion or belief system.  What other religion today can motivate so many of its adherents to willingly sacrifice themselves with utter finality in the practice of terror against anyone not sharing their specific beliefs?  What is your negotiating basis with someone whose reward is not of this world?  Christians don’t have a leg to stand on, and secular humanists – especially of the politically correct stripe – don’t even understand the problem.

So, here was an American military officer who had taken the most solemn and serious oath to defend his homeland against all enemies, and who appeared engaged in perfectly normal activities that fulfilled that oath.  And then, without warning, he violates that oath in the most terrible and egregious manner.  Is there any possible defense against the recurrence of this scenario?

Depending on what utility we assign to a successful defense, the Reverend Bayes would counsel that we can indeed defend ourselves, not with certainty, but close enough for government work.  But the parade of spread-eagled, white-haired grandmothers at our airport security checkpoints testifies that the good Reverend’s legacy is banished from such enquires, let alone applications, in today’s America.

Our politics will not allow us a reasonable defense.  But docking more freedoms and liberties of the whole, in order to defend against the few, is our government’s forte.  As the perfect trifecta - it addresses the problem, makes everyone aware that government is out there defending us, and quietly ratchets back freedoms that prepare us for the brave new world.  We never even think to look behind the curtain.

Comments

[Russ Steele]

Victor Davis Hanson:

While there is sometimes  talk of backlash and anti-Muslim hysteria since 9/11, I don’t think the number of Muslims attacked or killed is comparable to the number of non-Muslims killed by Muslims who evoked Islam in some way as a catalyst for their angers. Nor do we see comparable serial Christian, Hindu, or Jewish-inspired attacks either against mosques and Muslims or the policies of the United States government, either by single actors or more active and organized plotters.

More here

[Dave C]

I have often felt that people who chose to study psychiatry did so to figure out their own mental shortcomings. Some of them actually earned degrees.

Nonetheless, I am saddened about the events at Fort Hood. Three people I served with in Vietnam retired from the Army in the Killeen/Fort Hood area. I’ve been in touch with each of them. I am told the shock of this event far out weighs that of the Luby’s restaurant massacre in the early 90’s.

Dave C
Former CW2, Aviation

[Mikey McD]

George, great rumination.

Agreed- "Our politics will not allow us a reasonable defense. But docking more freedoms and liberties of the whole, in order to defend against the few, is our government’s forte."

I can't imagine the difference we would see in media coverage (who is the victim, who is the enemy?) if a white man opened fire in a mosque with such hatred.

My family's prayers go out to those at Ft. Hood.

[Dixon Cruickshank]

My GF and her 83 yr old mother will be going on a flight in a couple weeks - they will go through the exact same security as a 30 yr old muslim male - what is wrong with this picture, have the Isralis(sp) had any issues and they profile - honest this liberal PC stuff gets a little old

[Dixon Cruickshank]

By the way George, Russ doen't make me go through typing the security thingy anymore - just say'in

[George Rebane]

Every other time we fly, my white-haired bride and 7-times grandma is spread-eagled. TSA is a joke.

Dixon, the 'security thingy' is removed for your commenting ease and pleasure.

[steven frisch]

George says, "Consider this, Major Hasan had no other distinguishing attributes that may have predicted his killing spree, save that he was a discontent Muslim in an advanced 21st century culture, the very existence of which gives lie to most of Islam’s deepest teachings."

Another logical fallacy. It presumes that there can be a predictable "distinguishing attribute" of a mass shooter.

I would ask the readers to identify the predictable "distinguishing attribute" of the following mass shootings that occurred in the U.S.

Take a look at them listed below and predict away. I will postulate one: they were all profoundly disturbed mass killers with no common thread.

In light of this George further states: "Our politics will not allow us a reasonable defense."

I as the readers what would a reasonable defense be. From George's words they would appear to be banning Muslim's from this military. In other words "docking freedom and liberties" George's solution is restrict constitutional liberty in some areas and expand it in others.

Sorry George you don;t get to pick and choose which part of the constitution you like.

George, how does it feel to be taking advantage of a terrible tragedy, and the pain and suffering of the victims, to advance your political and ideological agenda?

A list of some mass shootings in the last 15 years:

April 3, 2009: A 41-year-old man opened fire at an immigrant community center in Binghamton, N.Y., killing 11 immigrants and two workers. Jiverly Wong, a Vietnamese immigrant and a former student at the center, killed himself as police rushed to the scene.

March 10, 2009: Michael McLendon, 28, killed 10 people, including his mother, four other relatives and the wife and child of a local sheriff's deputy, across two rural Alabama counties. He then committed suicide.

Feb. 14, 2008: Former student Steven Kazmierczak, 27, opened fire in a lecture hall at Northern Illinois University in DeKalb, fatally shooting five students and wounding 18 others before committing suicide.

Dec. 5, 2007: 19-year-old Robert A. Hawkins opened fire with a rifle in Omaha, Neb., at a Von Maur store in the Westroads Mall, killing eight people before taking his own life. Five more people were wounded, two critically.

April 16, 2007: Cho Seung-Hui, 23, fatally shot 32 people in a dorm and a classroom at Virginia Tech in Blacksburg, then killed himself in the deadliest mass shooting in modern U.S. history.

Feb. 12, 2007: 18-year-old Sulejman Talovic killed five and wounded four at the Trolley Square mall in Salt Lake City, Utah. He was then shot and killed by police.

Oct. 2, 2006: Charles Carl Roberts IV, 32, shot to death five girls at West Nickel Mines Amish School in Pennsylvania, then killed himself.

March 21, 2005: 16-year-old student Jeffrey Weise killed nine people, including his grandfather and his grandfather's companion at home, and then five fellow students, a teacher and a security guard at Red Lake High School in Red Lake, Minnesota, before killing himself. Seven students were wounded.

March 12, 2005: Terry Ratzmann, 44, gunned down members of his congregation as they worshipped at the Brookfield Sheraton in Brookfield, Wisconsin, slaying seven and wounding four before killing himself.

July 29, 1999: Former day trader Mark Barton, 44, killed nine people in shootings at two Atlanta, Georgia, brokerage offices, then committed suicide.

April 20, 1999: Students Eric Harris, 18, and Dylan Klebold, 17, opened fire at Columbine High School in Littleton, Colorado, killing 12 classmates and a teacher and wounding 26 others before committing suicide in the school's library.

March 24, 1998: Andrew Golden, 11, and Mitchell Johnson, 13, killed four girls and a teacher at a Jonesboro, Arkansas, middle school. 10 others were wounded in the shooting.

Oct. 27, 1995: A one-time Army paratrooper killed a fellow soldier and wounded nearly 20 others in a sniper attack at Fort Bragg, N.C. William Kreutzer, who is serving a life sentence, wounded most of the soldiers as they left an athletic field.

June 20, 1994: Former airman Dean A. Mellberg sprayed a military hospital with bullets at Fairchild Air Force Base in Spokane, Wash., killing four people and wounding 23 others before military police shot him to death. Two of those killed in the five-minute rampage were therapists who had recommended Mellberg's discharge.

Oct. 18, 1993: A civilian Army base supply clerk killed his boss and two co-workers and severely wounded two others at the Training Support Center in Fort Knox, Ky. Arthur Hill then drove 40 miles to the Veterans Affairs Medical Center in Louisville, where he committed suicide.

October 16, 1991: George Hennard, 35, smashed his pickup truck through a Luby's Cafeteria window in Killeen, Texas, and fired on the lunchtime crowd with a high-powered pistol, killing 22 people. At least 20 others were wounded.

[steven frisch]

LIne 7 above should read "I ask the readers what would a reasonable defense be?"

[steven frisch]

Before I hear the recriminations, all of our love and prayers should go out to the victims, and families of victims, of this terrible tragedy. I am deeply saddened by the loss. In addition, we should be singing the praise of this brave young woman, Kimberly Munley who sacrificed of herself to help her fellows.

http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/world/us_and_americas/article6907235.ece