George Rebane
[This piece is published here in The Union today as my April column. Coincidentally, today's (10apr10) WSJ also published an article that expands on the Singularity in its discussion of galactic civilizations. I have appended the relevant paragraph.]
In my past columns I have hinted at the enormous impact that accelerating technology is having on education and America’s workforce. Here I’ll try to convince you that ‘enormous impact’ is an understatement. Let me start with the punchline and then back off. Unless you’re planning on dying in the next ten or twenty years, it is very likely that you will live in a world with machines that are smarter than humans. The event when machines reach par intelligence with humans is known as the technological singularity, or simply the Singularity.
Before you turn the page, let me alert you that the Singularity will be the most planet changing event since the asteroids wiped out the dinosaurs 40 million years ago. And most of you will be around to witness it. We are now living in the pre-Singularity years and already sense that something different is going on. For example, wealth-producing productivity continues to increase while the number of workers required for such work is going down.
As a developed society we haven’t yet figured out what to do with the extra workers except maybe start all kinds of new service industries and public sector jobs to keep most everyone busy. But machines are already pushing themselves into the service sectors. Performance neutral workplaces in government seem to be the only places immune to encroaching technology.
Let me disabuse those who think the Singularity is some hare-brained notion held by weirdo techies. The Singularity is a very mature idea that has been around for at least forty years. Today major scientists in artificial intelligence, nano-technology, and genetic engineering are working on perfecting everything from the brain-computer interface to machine consciousness.
Why is it called the Singularity? Years ago mathematician and writer Vernon Vinge gave it this name because singularities in physics and mathematics are ‘points’ at which things become undefined, where the normal rules no longer work, where we don’t know. A popularized example of a singularity is the center of a black hole – there our physics simply breaks down, and we don’t know what is really going on.
In the same manner, scientists, futurists, and philosophers run into a cognitive wall when they try to conceive of a post-Singularity world. Because in that world, humans will no longer be the dominant species on this planet. How do you deal with a critter that can think thoughts you cannot, and do it a thousand times faster? Will we have the chance to ‘climb aboard’ and become some version of trans-human combining meat and machine? Will they let us?
Many of us believe that the Singularity will not result from a purposed technology development program. Instead it will arise spontaneously as an ‘emergent property’ of a sufficiently complex computing environment that we are still working on. Some argue that the Internet is already a sufficiently complex ‘organism’ from which a conscious, par intelligence can arise, and in its own time, announce its existence to us. You can be sure that then it will be too late for us to do anything but attempt to play nice with it, because the Internet is already used to control our finances, communications, energy, food supplies, and security.
If you accept only a smidgeon of this, you will understand why the Singularity will be the planet changing event I have described. And the pre-Singularity years will become more tumultuous as we try to sort out new paradigms for wealth creation and distribution, the roles of the mal-educated, and human rights. As the effects of the Singularity become more broadly known, I believe that legions of luddites will arise to demand a halt to all such intellect-toxic enterprises and their public discussion.
For your own research I recommend going to sites like singinst.org, kurzweilai.net, singularity.com/themovie/, and reading authors like Ray Kurzweil (The Singularity is Near) and Hans Moravec (Robot). In future months we will revisit this topic and its growing impact on our lives.
George Rebane is a retired systems scientist and entrepreneur in Nevada County who regularly expands these and other themes on KVMR and Rebane’s Ruminations (www.georgerebane.com).
[appendix] The following is taken from 'Is Anybody Out There?' by Paul Davies in the 10apr10 WSJ.
One thing seems clear, though. Biological intelligence is likely to be merely a brief phase in the evolution of intelligence in the universe. Even in our own young species, computers now outperform people in arithmetic and chess, and Google is smarter than any human being on the planet. Soon, most of the mental heavy lifting will be done by designed and distributed systems, and over time those systems will themselves design better systems. Given a very long period of development, information and knowledge processing, networks could merge and in principle expand to cover the entire surface of a moon or planet. If we ever do make contact with E.T., it is unlikely to be a flesh-and-blood being with a big head, but a gigantic throbbing artificial brain. Whether such an entity, inhabiting the highest reaches of the intellectual universe, would have the slightest interest in us is moot.
Another sign that the Singularity is closer than we think... This morning I was playing checkers with my toaster. The toaster won.
Posted by: RL Crabb | 10 April 2010 at 10:21 AM
It all boils down to how much authority and power we give a servant. I am happy to turn on the cruise control on the freeway while others never do as they will not cede control. Now, some cars will actively operate the brakes if you are too close to the car in front of you. A lot of buying and selling on the stock market is done according to computer code. The scary part (for me, anyway) is the point at which the non-human controller is allowed to make decisions that are based on self-learned behavior, not on strict pre-programmed behaviors. I'm sure there are industrial robotic machines that already do that, to a degree. It all boils down to who has ultimate control over the OFF switch. Any entity, human or other, that has the intelligence and authority to rule over any part of my life will only be acceptable if I can ultimately voluntarily separate from that relationship. And that is a very old question that is wrestled with every day, singularity or not. Brave new world!
Posted by: Account Deleted | 10 April 2010 at 11:57 AM
There is an obvious solution to the problem of machines running our lives...Let the left win.
Conservatives have been saying for years if things continue on their present course, we'll be living in mud huts and driving ox carts by the end of the century.
Posted by: RL Crabb | 11 April 2010 at 05:04 AM
No - sorry, no ox carts allowed! Oxen flatulence causes global warming.
Posted by: Account Deleted | 11 April 2010 at 08:43 AM
Living with Microsoft operating systems convinced me years ago the machines have already won. Latest battle over mouse control, which suddenly went south in my main ID on the laptop. Laptop mousepad worked everywhere else, all other ID's, not in the main ID, even though it supposedly has admin rights. Reinstalled drivers in a roundabout way, nothing changed, messed with startup menu to no avail.
Finally happen to notice on the touchpad itself a very slight glow of red of an icon for the pad. Further research reveals an even tinier blend into the background black button. I push the button and red icon becomes blue, touch tablet/mousepad pointing device is back in operation. Time wasted, at least two hours. My white hair showed up with the introduction of Win95. An hour to install, 30 seconds for a kid to knock it down.
Posted by: Douglas Keachie | 11 April 2010 at 09:01 AM
Thought question, for self aware machines.
Can logic itself generate pleasure and therefore motivation to be interested in anything? Or motivation to do anything? Can a machine be self aware without the complex chemistry that appears to control such things in our brains?
Posted by: Douglas Keachie | 11 April 2010 at 09:06 AM
Sorry Urbane the Turing test is still a long way off. As to the singularity? One man will prevent it.Nathan Myhrvold of Intellectual Ventures, ex-Microsoft executive.
http://news.cnet.com/8301-13505_3-9816163-16.html
Posted by: NC_Guy | 12 April 2010 at 11:01 AM
Microsoft operating systems Ow, you can go different. Buy a Mac, and you can run those awful MS apps on it too.
Posted by: NC_Guy | 12 April 2010 at 11:04 AM
Or go with a version of Linux. An easy way to try it is with Ubuntu. Totally free. I've been using it for years and recommend it highly. It self-installed on a Thinkpad with no problems. XP on the same laptop required fetching extra drivers.
Posted by: Account Deleted | 12 April 2010 at 11:12 AM
In the April 12, 2010, edition of the "The New Yorker" magazine is a great cartoon on page 55 -- some scientists are looking over the Singularity Robots and they are typing at their keyboards, morosely. The scientists in the background chime in:
"The robots have become self-aware and self-loathing. Now all they do is write novels."
That is great comedy, IMHO.
Posted by: Michael Anderson | 12 April 2010 at 10:36 PM