Tea Party Member ?=? Republican

George Rebane

KVMR News Director Paul Emery comments (here) that – “A recent Gallop Poll shows that 80% of Tea Party affiliates are Republicans and have voted Republican in the last three election cycles. The poll indicates that they will vote Rupublican in the next election. 12% are Democrats and only 8% are Independents. This indicates to me that the Tea Party is the same Conservative faction of the Republican Party with a different logo.”

This revisits the ongoing proposition that there is no essential difference between the Republicans and the members of the various TP affiliated organizations across the country.  However, the Republican Party leadership seems to disagree.  They evince this disagreement by their ongoing and concerted effort to get the TP affiliates to endorse the party and/or their candidates running in the various elections this fall.  Were they sanguine about the two ‘groups’ being identical or even of the same mind, they would not continue these overtures.

So how does this “different logo” question resolve itself?  Perhaps the following graphic can shed some light.

 

Let the big rectangle represent the set of all political principles/beliefs.  The red circle then represents such beliefs actually ‘acted out’ or implemented by the recent Republicans – this is their walk instead of their talk.  The blue circle represents the same for the recent Democrats.  The intersection of these two circles shows how much commonality there is in how the two parties actually behave.  The black circle represents the political principles/beliefs of those declaring themselves to be members of the various TP affiliates.  And yes, the overlap here is mostly with the Republicans.

But here comes the problem for the Republicans.  As long as they cannot budge the black circle to encompass more of their recent political principles (that have departed from their stated beliefs), the TP, holding firm to its principles, will either force candidates of both parties to come their way, or even invite a third party to come into being that would really screw (mostly) the Republican establishment.  This potential is represented by the dashed tan circle denoting the beliefs/actions of independent candidates and possible third parties.

One thing we can be sure of is that all factions of the existing political class are fighting a sanitary problem in their shorts – they all acknowledge that the people populating the black TP circle is already big and growing.  That’s why one side is spending so much energy attempting to snuff the TP movement and the other side is doing its best to co-opt it.  If that weren’t so, no one would care.

This explains why there is a difference between the TP as a principled movement of governance, and the established ‘political class’ of either party.  And the purpose of the TP movement is to grow in number so that it can affect the shift of all partisan candidates to endorse and behave more closely to the common principles – fiscal responsibility, Constitutionality, capitalism – that the individual TP members embrace, and through which lens (black circle) they will evaluate candidates and so cast their votes.  This is a difference and a distinction that goes beyond the commonly asserted “different logos” argument.

Thoughts?

Comments

[Russ Steele]

George,

What happens when the black ring grows, perhaps even as large as the red or blue rings? It appears to me that the black ring will continue to grow as more conservatives, Democrat, Republican or Independent join the TP. Will it reach the same size as the red and blue, perhaps not but it will grow as the economy continues to languish and national unemployment slides past 10% as the election approaches. The summer seasonal employment will be in decline and the holiday seasonal employment will still be a few weeks away. Ben Bernanke, Fed chairman, said on Monday there remained a “considerable way to go” before the US economy makes a full recovery. As more jobs are lost, and it becomes clearer and clearer to the public that neither Democrats or Republican cannot fix the problem more citizens will find the TP principles more attractive and the black circle will grow in size. As it grows, more political leaders will be forced to endorse the TP.

[RL Crabb]

I expect the Tea Party movement(s) will make gains in November, despite the current public divisions with some Tea Party leaders. The real questions will come when the new coalition shows its muscle.

As I've said here before, the movement has skirted any positions on social issues. Once in the halls of Congress they'll no doubt be facing a host of proposals on immigration, abortion, the environment and gay rights as well as their attempts to rein in spending and the growth of government. That's when we'll find out whether they can hold on to Independents, Democrats, and moderate Republicans as we head into the 2012 election cycle.

[Todd Juvinall]

Perhaps to assuage your concerns about issues, I would suggest looking at the Parliamentary system in Great Britain. I follow the Parliament because I just love hearing the English words spoken by Englishmen and women. Anyway, the election in May booted out the Labour Party after thirteen years but did not give the conservatives a total majority (by just a few votes). So David Cameron formed a coalition with the far left and so far it is working. The Tea Party has just a few issues, none social mostly fiscal. I would say the quality of the people, if elected, will address those issues that are on the table then. Now, if you want more explanation, you will just remain frustrated.

[Eddie Haskell]

Your circles seem ominous, like something you'd see in a college philosophy class. And we know all those professors are socialists. Beware anyone who uses circles for logic.

But I do like polls. Like the substantial percentage of Tea Party members who don't believe Obama was born in the United States. Those people are imbeciles and fools because he was. Period. Of course, significant numbers of Republicans (20% in North Carolina) don't believe Hawaii is part of the United States. You guys are such intellectuals.

And, of course, there's always the 20% or so who believe Obama is the antichrist. God bless you tolerant teabaggers, they're yours!

Glad to hear the Tea Party Patriots are now asking members to report illegal immigrant behavior and incidents to Party officials to prove how awful immigration reform would be.. No racism going on there.

Interesting that property crimes and violent crimes in Arizona have DECLINED every year the past four years. Better crack down on illegal immigrants immediately. Wait, it's declined? That can't be possible....

Love watching the Yahoo, I'm Stupid Crowd...

[RL Crabb]

Politics make strange bedfellowa, it's true. And the depth of the economic problems facing the Brits and Americans may result in these kind of shotgun weddings. I only wonder how long they can last. As usual, Todd, I'm only making an observation. No frustration involved.

[George Rebane]

Please do not confuse the size of the circles with the number of people. The circles indicate sets of political beliefs and behaviors. For the TP's black circle to grow or move requires the TP to either enlarge their set of adopeted principles and allowable political actions, or accept a shift in the same. Again, the size of the circle does not represent the number of people, but specirfic political principles/beliefs and their related actions. I've shown the TP circle to be smaller only to communicate that the movement has fewer core principles which dictate a more limited set of related actions/behaviors.

[Paul Emery]

Back to the Polls and what they might mean in the upcoming election. The 12% Democrats who are Tea Party members is a reasonable percentage of Democrats who likely supported the Libertarian surge in the last election due to the eloquence and clarity of Ron Paul and who will look at the Tea Party as the likely best hope for that direction. That also probably accounts for most of the 8% of the independents as well. Whether that will lead to votes supporting rank and file Republicans remains to be seen. There is a fervor in some of the Tea Party Movement that will not be satisfied with a shift to the right and will demand a revolution via the ballot box that history will show never really happens that dramatically. The Republican Party will still be the Republican party complete with it's special interest supporters that will need to be fed and cared for, The Democratic party is the same with it's variations of interest groups. Idealistic Obama supporters are realizing that now. Last years "revolution" becomes this years just like last year. We have gone through this so many times. Someone new gets elected or a different party becomes the majority and everybody get's excited that things are going to change. For example, do Tea Party supporters really believe that Meg Whitman is going to lead California to a grand and glorious conservative future? What in her past justifies that belief? Would die hard Republicans such as Newt or Mitt, potential Presidential candidates, stand up against the special interest groups that have supported them from the start? Sorry, I don't think so.
The lack of details in the TP credos will be addressed when, for example the question of corporate or farm subsidies is asked. Would you expect support from those special interest groups if part of a clearly defined platform would call for their elimination.

And how about the constitutionality of the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan. I don't see any interest from the Tea Party in raising those questions like Ron Paul did.

So where does that lead to? Another revolution that is more like a tea party parlor dispute that will be forgotten and assimilated as soon as the next thing comes along.

So in the next election the Republicans will likely pick up a few votes and supporters will go yahoo and go home and nothing will really change.

[Russ Steele]

George,

Thanks for the clarification. I did not read the text close enough. I was more focused on the graphic when I was writing my comment. If the TP only has four political principles, should the circle be much smaller when compared to the number of political principles/beliefs in the red and blue circles?

[George Rebane]

Russ, you are exactly right. The TP's black circle should be the smallest of the bunch, but it is larger than just the set of core principles/beliefs since it also includes the actions/behaviors that their implementation will give rise to. Nevertheless, such principled actions will form a smaller set than the large sets of shenanigans the Dems and Repubs are used to dealing out to the country.

Paul, that's a very plausible analysis and prognosis. And it will most likely happen if the TP members allow that black circle to shift and/or get too big. In any case, from your mouth to God's ear.

[Bob H]

Haskell - you are a bitter man.

[Todd Juvinall]

Was it Eddie Haskell who became the black painted furry headed rock star?

[Rl Crabb]

I believe Eddie Haskell became a CHP officer after he grew up. Watch out or he'll write you a ticket.

[Mikey McD]

Are we to accept the notion that democrats don't believe in the constitution, free markets and fiscal responsibility? I can't accept that main stream democrats want: to re-write the constitution (or abolish all/parts of it), socialism (anti-personal liberty, anti-diversity, anti-gay marriage, serfdom, etc), and fiscal irresponsibility. But, their hatred of the TP strongly suggests that the values of the TP don't match the dem values. As for me, I will vote for Ron Paul again, and again(Ron Paul cured my apathy). Personally, until income tax reform positive change is impossible. And no, Meg Whitman is not CA's savior (she just may make Arnold look republican!). Emery, kudos for supporting the description of Rebane's blog "..last great century of man."

[Paul Emery]

Mikey

What do you think of some form of consumption tax as an alternative to income tax. I don't know much about the concept

[Todd Juvinall]

A sales tax is much more fair because even the underground economy buys things. Many of us would rather have that than than the"progressive" incom tax. The problem is this though, they will not get rid of the current tax structure, they will just add it to the total. This is true with the VAT as well. I think the VAT is the primary reason for the malaise in European economics.

[Rl Crabb]

I agree with the VAT instead of the current model, and not in addition to it. The problem is that unemployment would skyrocket if tax preparers and IRS agents were out of a job.

[George Rebane]

I must agree with Mikey's conundrum. How is the political spectrum of progressives fashioned so that they can blithely label those of us extreme/hard right wingers who tout in their belief systems fiscal responsibility, Constitutionality, and capitalism? Don't most Americans who read sign up for at least the minimal means to implement each of these?

Re taxes - I believe that the flat tax is the most corruption-resistant, understandable/manageable, equitable, stable, and acceptable method for collecting government revenues and abetting beneficial formation and allocation of capital.

[Todd Juvinall]

The VAT is very regressive. It taxes a product eery step of it creation to sale. The European model ends up being over a 20% tax.

[Mikey McD]

Any tax needs to be transparent (not 20,000 pages) and equitably shared by each member of society. We already have consumption taxes (gas tax, sales tax, etc etc). I think a flat or fair tax is needed. 1 page return (postcard?). An additional all encompassing consumption tax is a tough pill for a consumer economy to swallow and easily abated by the wealthy. I would contend that tax system reform must go hand in hand with spending reform (pay-go, balanced budget, etc); as long as the politicians have blank checks tax reform is futile. If politicians are forced by the people to spend less (no stimulus, no bailouts, increase legal immigration, fewer/no wars, privatize education, free the health care market, no more stealing from the SS trust fund, etc) then we can make some progress.

[Mikey McD]

VAT tax is crippling to an economy, defeats moral, defeats economic growth. In short it enslaves the entrepreneur and consumer. Again, it is foolish to have a consumption tax on a consumer economy.

[Rl Crabb]

VAT or flat, any notion that we would see either one happen in our lifetime is wishful thinking. Is that taxable?

[Larry Wirth]

As one who lives about four miles from one of the most heavily used corridors for illegal immigration, I feel qualified to comment upon Mr. Haskell's remark about crime in Arizona. During our first four years here, we experienced three incursions on our property. The first was a family, asking for water and food. Granting the first is legal, the second is not, so "there's a faucet over there, folks.." The second was a drug mule looking for a ride back to Mexico who refused to leave and sat by the driveway to wait for his ride froms INS. The last was a group of teens seeking to use the telephone, obviously lost. They were told to leave and did so. One reason these incursions are so "uncommon" is that, while we are close to the pedestrian highway of the Altar wash, we are also 900 feet higher in elevation and the hikers have little or no reason to depart from the gentle downward slope of the wash bottom, unless to avoid apprehension.

In the last four years, while we occasionally see immigrants while out on the roads, none have knocked on the door. And there are reasons for this.

First, the level of enforcement in our area has been greatly stepped up; the local roads now swarm with immigration enforcement personnel and for this reason, and the economic downturn, far fewer illegals are attempting to run the local gantlet- this shows up in the fact that apprehensions are down dramatically from a couple of years ago. Fewer arrests also means fewer getting through =
fewer crimminals coming to Arizona. In addition, the Yuma sector to the west has virtually ended illegal entry to Arizona with effective enforcement mechanism, like jail time for repeat offenders instead of the prior "catch and release" policy.

The second reason for the alleged decline in crime is that, while Tucson as home to the U of A is a snakepit of liberals, the two counties to the north of here, Pinal and Maricopa, have tough, non-nonsense Sheriff Departments who have zero tolerance for illegal entrants. They detain ordinary migrants and turn them over to ICE and arrest the crimminals. As Eddie might want to contemplate, illegal immigrants in jail commit fewer crimes.

It is also true, however, that Phoenix has become the kidnapping capital of the US as the drug cartels have seized increasing control of illegal traffic in both narcotics and human beings. Scary as these folks are (lunch in Nogales is no longer an option), they do not target American citizens (unless they get in the way) but brutalize each other and the rest of the illegals pretty much as they please. Naturally most of this intermural crime goes unreported.

The larger question is why do so many liberals want illegal immigration into our country?

[Barry Pruett]

George: It is the 1960's backwards. The 60's movement was labeled as radcial and extreme. The radicals of the 60's are now promoting the perception that the TP and conservatism is extreme. Look the the FUE's blog...watch CNN or MSNBC. It is all coming full circle. Further, do not kid yourself...it is all about perception...not the truth.