Those Convenient Counterfactuals (updated)

George Rebane

Ahh, another glorious Friday, and an opportunity to continue the never-ending debate about President Obama’s series of stimulus packages that have done so much good in this recession, the good that would have gone by the board had not Congress bent to the man’s progressive instincts and Keynesian prescriptions.

 

Here again we see the weekly update of the contribution to Nevada County afforded by the now (in)famous American Redistribution and Re-election Act of 2009 – better known as ARRA.  The monies from this national commons has drizzled down into the nooks and crannies of our country, directed to places, people, and projects where it will do the most good for the ruling class.  But the discernible effects of ARRA have been varied and very debatable.

That ARRA has been a just-in-time blessing for America is touted by no less than the President himself.  Starting in the marbled halls beside the Potomac, the orchestrated cry has rippled down through state capitals and city halls large and small, all the way to remote mountain counties harboring gratefully funded NGOs and the occasional stretch of road or bridge in disrepair.

ARRA’s skeptics have spent the last year or so looking for the benefits of this federal largesse.  They’ve looked at job statistics, trade balances, unemployment numbers, etc without much success in finding the blessings from this new mortgage on the country’s economy.  And as a result, you’d think ARRA’s promoters and true believers would be in shame and disarray.  Don’t let the thought enter your head.

The benefits of ARRA are right there in front of your eyes, you just have to know where to believe.  The skeptics are tagged daily in the media as reactionary knuckledraggers to whom it must explained over and over again that if we had not stimulated with ARRA, then this, that, or the other horrible thing would have happened.  And having now spent the borrowed Asian yen and yuan, voila!, the bad stuff didn’t happen.  What more proof could a reasonable person want?

In systems science such arguments are known as counterfactual conditionals, or simply counterfactuals.  Their use in reasoning, especially about causality, is an important part of leading edge developments in both philosophy and machine intelligence.  To understand them, consider first another kind of conditional – the indicative conditional.  The indicative could be something as bland and tautological as ‘If it did not rain this morning, we would have had some other kind of weather.’ – an obviously true statement.

An example of a counterfactual is ‘If it had not rained this morning, then it would have snowed instead.’  Well, the fact is that it did rain this morning, and it is not certain at all that the alternative to rain would have been snow.  It could have been sleet, hail, clear skies, or … .  A counterfactual is not a reliably true statement, it is a chancy statement at best – at best there may be a measurable probability that the statement would have been true, and that’s all.

So now we understand the blather that comes from Washington and from local jurisdictions and NGOs about the effects of ARRA – ‘If we had not passed ARRA, then two (or three or four or …) million more jobs would have been lost.’  Bull pucky is about all we can sprinkle on such arguments.  No one has made a case for such claims, especially now that we’re seeing the economy continue to struggle and sag.  With at least equal validity one could claim, ‘If we had not passed ARRA, then the recession would now be over.’   (I’ll call that the von Mises argument.)

And claims of how much ARRA money actually has landed in the bounds of Nevada County, and what the greater tragedy would have been had Nevada County not received such stipulated funds, are somewhat beyond comedy.  And the mirth is multiplied by the serious demeanor with which Obama’s local progressives portray the “truth” of their claims, and ascribe all other representations, no matter how qualified and official their source, as “lies”.  The twilight of reason.

[update] A correspondent and RR reader from the Washington area sent this August 2010 DOE Inspector General's report on the progress from its distribution of ARRA funds.  Recommended reading for a dose of high government comedy.  But when you stop laughing, you might want to have your hanky ready for the tears you will then shed for our country and your wallet.

Comments

[Russ Steele]

Kilgore exults to Willard, "I love the smell of napalm in the morning... Apocalypse Now. The smell of victory!

[Kim Pruett]

Hi George,
While driving through Nevada coming home from vacation I picked up a newspaper to see on the front page Harry Reid and his new campaign slogan. "I have brought more than 672 million dollars in earmarks and stimulus to the state of Nevada" 4 times more than all of the Nevada Congressional Delegation combined, so re-elect me as your senator so that I can continue to bring home the money for Nevada. The reality of this is where did the money go? Nevada is up there as one of the worst states for unemployment right now, I believe they are in the top 3. When I drove across country a few weeks ago, I saw hundreds of thousands of Wind Mills in Wyoming, Utah, Indiana, and Colorado. Is this where the money is going?Wind Mills? As far as the stimulus, it has been a nightmare for most local governments to get because of the way it has been set up. The traditional funding methods ( which Tom agrees with-not earmarks) have been tossed to the wayside for the so-called stimulus program. If we had stuck to the tradional funding programs the money would have been distributed more fairly and easily based on "merit" not on who's district it would benefit more (democrats) Just my opinion from what I have seen on the ground. There are some programs in Nevada County who will benefit from the money but most of them are temporary jobs, when the money runs out in two or three years, will those jobs be lost?

[Russ Steele]

Kim,

As Ellen and I traveled across the country we say wind turbines on hill top across the nation, and the Gaspe Peninsula. We were amazed how many were still, not turning. I have been searching for some numbers on the percentage of time that wind turbines actually contribute to the power grid. Based on observations, not much. But, it would be nice to have some facts. Would Tom have access to that information?

[Steve Enos]

At least George post recently that it's... "The inherited Bush economy"... 8 years of Bush took us over the cliff.

One just needs to review the "numbers" from when Bush took office and compare them to when Bush left office. He ran our country and most of the world economy over a cliff.

Yes.. it is "The inherited Bush economy".

[George Rebane]

SteveE - going into the second week now, you have posted these same words all over the comment threads of several blogs. Are you getting paid to do this, or is it a syndrome for which treatment is still difficult to find?

[Steve Frisch]

Yeah, and your ARRA numbers are still wrong.

[Todd Juvinall]

George, looks like Steve and Steve have thin skins.

[George Rebane]

Progressivism is a hard hill to defend, it is best done through diversion and innuendo. Frederic Bastiat had something to say about that in 'That Which is Seen, and That Which is Not Seen' here http://bastiat.org/en/twisatwins.html .

And here's another piece that's coming down the pike to explain the matter to the hard of understanding. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4wty7974IKg&feature=player_embedded

[Kim Pruett]

Russ,,
When we saw the windmills, most of them were turning as far as we could see. Of course we were driving through a lot of areas that were flat and had lots of wind, especially Indiana. I will see what info I can get from our office on this. I know that the cost of the windmills is very expensive and they are supposed to generate a lot of clean power, but what happens when they are not turning? Is the power stored somewhere to be used at a later time? What is the cost benefit to the consumers and does it help decrease our energy costs? These are all questions to ask. Who ever is manufacturing them is making a killing off the government, those things are everywhere!

[Steve Enos]

"Is the power stored somewhere to be used at a later time?"... God help us.

[Dixon Cruickshank]

Your absolutely correct george - Frisch would rather get in a discussion that your numbers are a couple off a little bit - rather than the fact they are there at all. Glad to see not take the bait, but a sweet example for all.

[Nuff's back]

Dixon, They're off by more than a "couple" and George has been made well aware of it. The fact he refuses to correct them speaks volumes of his credibility.

[Steve Frisch]

These numbers are off by a factor of at least .

[Steve Frisch]

12

[Todd Juvinall]

I can understand why freeloading NGO's would dispute the source of their money when that is their lifeblood.

[Nuff said]

Mr. Juvinall. As someone who didn't live here when you were in office, I can honestly say -- after reading your venomous negativity on EVERY post you make -- that I am certainly pleased that your are known as a FORMER county superintendent. We're much better off with folks who want to work together rather than simply score political points with the local yokels.

[Todd Juvinall]

Ut Oh. An anonymous trill is loose on these threads. Pendragon? Baja? Oh heck, just another loony troll from the left. BTW, who let you into my county?

[Nuff said]

Ha! YOUR county? Keep hanging onto that mentality, Mr. Juvinall. If you haven't noticed, this ain't the '50s. This is looking whole lot less like YOUR county (and country) every day. (And that's a good thing!) Keep isolating those who disagree with you and suddenly you'll find ... "the cheese stands alone." Sounds a lot like the future of the Republican party, lacking diversity in opinion and culture.

[Todd Juvinall]

Who allowed such a troll into my county? You are just an angry anonymous troll and I do feel sorry for you. Alone there in your cave.

[jason]

Obama doesn't have the first idea about what religious freedom means. Take Islam for example. The entire religion, and culture that surrounds it is oppressive and bigoted - to women, to anyone of another religious belief, to anyone who doesn't follow its tenets. And this a**wipe "president" of ours insists on defending an imam who has excoriated America and American people - similar to the Irreverend Wright.