... and they knew not what they had witnessed.
George Rebane
Really! The ease with which IBM’s Watson supercomputer dispatched its champion human opponents on Jeopardy last night, will go down as perhaps the first pre-Singularity temblor on this third planet from the Sun. During the three session tournament, Watson showed the world what the next phase of living with intelligent computers will be like. We’re not talking about something in the future, we’re talking right now. IBM will make sure that everyone who wants a Watson will get one, and IBM’s competitors will make sure that IBM will not be the only one selling such smart machines that can understand and talk to humans about literally all the world’s knowledge.
Ray Kurzweil, one my oft-cited Singularity authors (The Singularity Is Near) and creative giants of technology, writes ‘When Computers Beat Humans on Jeopardy’ in today’s WSJ. Here he makes the point that Watson and its progeny might have a relatively easy time passing the Turing Test, with a minor adjustment that is. Watson would have to be dumbed down, else the human tester would quickly discover that Watson could instantly answer questions that no single human could.
I would also make a note about your whereabouts on the evening of 16 February 2011, your grandchildren will be asking you about that in the future. Take a look at the nearby full page ad that IBM ran in today’s WSJ. It hopefully declares that “Humans win!” – well, some humans will win. But regular RR readers know what Watson’s performance portends, and will be able to interpret this as the quantum leap toward the Singularity that it is. Hedge fund manager, financial guru, and author Andy Kessler writes ‘Is Your Job an Endangered Species?’, please read this in light of what you have heard here over the last several years, and especially in light of what happened last night. I may have to increase my estimate of the 70 million American un/underemployed in 2020 – the jobs ballgame is changing that fast. And stay tuned, stay very tuned.
Homework assignment: Describe how Watson-like and Watson-plus (RACR) machines will be factored into the social justice equation so dear to progressive hearts.
[Addendum – Yesterday I recorded my bi-weekly KVMR-FM commentary that will air tomorrow (18feb11) evening. It was about Watson and its anticipated sweep of the its human competitors on Jeopardy. I would have had to re-record if Watson had not lived up to my expectations. The transcript will be posted here tomorrow night as usual.]
George, you should read "Grumby" by Andy Kessler - it's a novel, and I doubt you'd agree with the story's conclusion, but it's still a rollicking good read. :)
http://akle.in/akdc-grumby
Posted by: Aaron Klein | 18 February 2011 at 12:56 PM
Maybe it could be a Czar for Obama
Posted by: Dixon Cruickshank | 18 February 2011 at 01:14 PM