The Off and On of the Inevitable (Addended)

George Rebane

The Greeks are rioting in the streets again.  They don’t like the new tranche of austerity measures that their parliament was forced to levy on the country.  This was in response to the northern eurozone countries imposing more conditions before giving Greece its next bailout check of approximately $170B in March.  The north, led by Germany, is keeping a wary eye on Greece to see if these austerity measures will be made to stick.

Greece’s big unfunded liability is of the same stripe as ours – entitlements that range from public employee pensions to healthcare.  We recall that in Greece one out of four workers is unproductively employed by the government.  And up until now, the parliament doesn’t even want to put public sector pension cuts on the table.

The markets in Europe and America are acting insanely as they digest the daily dribble of news from Brussels and Athens.  ‘Are the Greeks going to make it?  Well maybe, and then again, today it doesn’t look like it.’  My long held view that Greece will tank is getting more certain by the day.  There is no hint that with the March check, the Greeks will be any closer to financial stability than they are today.  They’ll use that cash to service their national debt, make government payroll and pension payments,  and buy time in dickering with their bond holders to take a 50% haircut.  But none of this will put the country on to a path of fiscal recovery.  After the March check, they’ll start rioting for the August or September check.

As a political and finance junkie, I keep asking myself as to who benefits from this silly dance with the foregone ending.  The only answer I have been able to cobble together is the ruling elites and the rich guys.  They are buying time to get their finances rearranged, relocated, and redoubted (hidden in places their governments can’t get it, see nearby chart).  So when it finally hits the fan, and spreads from Greece around the European shore of the Mediterranean to the northern countries, the remaining visible wealth of the smart people will be small enough to surrender without really affecting the quality of their lives.  The delay also gives the clever people time enough to get out of Dodge, whether that be a political office or country of residence.

Countries like Switzerland have been the monetary redoubt for the smart and wealthy for generations.  But now that security is being breached by developed nations led by the US.  The Swiss are now the prime target of big countries who want to know who of their citizens have how much squirreled away where.  While the Swiss and others are putting up a fuss to the likes of America, they have no intention in getting out of the numbered bank account business for the rich of the less developed and muscular countries.  From these countries it is still easy to pull profits from your nation’s natural resource sales, or even foreign aid from idiots in America, and get it into your secret accounts on some ‘El Dorado shore’.

At this point, let’s not confuse the above with what many well-to-do Americans like Mitt Romney have done.  Parts of the portfolios, of Mitt and others like him, are enjoying better returns and putatively greater security in places like the Caymans.  All of this is perfectly legal since the IRS knows about these accounts and their holders pay regular taxes on the income from these accounts, just the same as if they were with the local BofA branch.  But what Mitt and the others are preparing themselves for is total confiscation by dear old Uncle Sam.

The theory here being that it will be more difficult for Uncle to demand that another sovereign nation-state’s banks plunder their account holders and turn everything over to a future fundamentally transformed government on these shores.  I don’t put much truck in that kind of planning – ‘nice try, but no cigar’.  If our feds know you have it, they will track it, and can grab it wherever it is.  There are so many ways for those sleaze bags to pull that off when the time comes.

Meanwhile, the rest of us in currency denominated securities are screwed, no matter where we keep them.  Today the countries of the world owe about $45T in sovereign debt.  This is a very lowball estimate that does not include any add-on unfunded entitlements, which can range up to five times this number.  The only way the new world order can come into being is through a massive worldwide default of outstanding debts that will be hailed by legions of lamebrains.  We have only to remember that the borrowers have the guns and will not hesitate to use them.  And that creditors are empty handed when governments ultimately become openly criminal.

[Addendum]  And for the true believers that some day growth will come at rates high enough to begin retiring debt, here is some more news about the EU.

Comments

[Douglas Keachie]

George, welcome to the 99%! If I were in the upper echelons cashwise, I'd buy up a string of old gold mines, and also some gold. Then regular harvest the gold as new findings, offset by the expense of living there and supposedly digging. Couldn't be a better place to stash gold than in a gold mine. What you haven't dug out of the ground yet, the government can't tax or confiscate, unless things get really nasty.

[billy T]

Greece is like a little kid begging Mommie for a cute puppy. "Please, please, please Mommie. I promise will take care of it, I promise I will." Mommie gets the puppy and notices little Mary starts to renege of her promises. Mommie threatens to take the puppy away, and Mary pleads again, promising again with alligator tears to mend her ways. But Mommie notices soon after...it is an unbroken cycle. Greece promised to be good on their first bailout, but forget their promises. Now, the Mother EU wants written promises, and the German parliament (Big Daddy) will vote to approve the bailout in February. Nobody believes Greece and even axing 1 in 5 gov't workers won't make a dent. To be fair, Europe is heading into a recession and Greece can't grow or spend or tax their way out of their neatly dug grave. Sure am glad our recession ended 2.5 years ago. Just hours ago, the credit rating for several European countries have been cut again, including arrogant France. No surprises there. Europe don't look to good right now. Only bright spot for Euroland is Northern Europe. http://www.thestreet.com/story/11410900/1/with-greek-deal-europes-debt-mess-is-just-beginning.html

[George Rebane]

DougK 156pm - The post was not meant to sound like a recent discovery of the problem (these pages contain years of spot on prognostications of this), but to sound the latest lament that nobody important has yet the balls to stand up and unambiguously say that there will be no growing out of this fiscal mess.

It is only the little voices like mine in the hinterlands, who are making such unambiguous statements. The rest are publicly waiting for the tooth fairy.

[billy T]

Europe, like California, have yet to get a handle on the debt. Greece exports little and imports little. It is a tiny economy that will be booted out of the Eurozone in due time. Only those dumb enough to loan a bunch of money to an unemployable addict will lose their money by keeping Greece alive. Think those Tea Party types were on to something when they started demanding paying for the ride, or as Queen Nancy once proclaimed proudly "Pay-go was the most important legislation pasted by the Congress." Hmmm. Nancy should proclaim loudly that we should get a handle on the debt as well, but I won't hold my breath. Doesn't California have to lowest credit rating of any other state, bar none? Hmm. http://www.thestreet.com/story/11416342/1/moodys-lowers-downgrade-boom-on-europe.html Maybe California can cut off the outreached hands of 20% of its civil servants as well. Oh yeah, we ain't Greece. We are so much better than them. right

[Account Deleted]

Here's how California pays it's debts. No wonder Kamala suddenly caved. It seems the fix is in. I've already passed this along to several non-California friends to thank them for bailing us out.
http://www.calwatchdog.com/2012/02/10/other-states-bail-out-ca-mortgages/

[billy T]

Opps. Think it is time to amend my foolish statement "the only bright spot is Northern Europe". http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-02-13/europe-job-losses-accelerating-with-astrazeneca-to-pepsico-cuts.html

[Russ Steele]

Chriss Street, writing at the Cal WatchDog has some insight in to why CA is where it is today on the cusp of economic disaster:

California’s aristocratic socialists embedded Agenda 21 into AB32. The law supposedly was designed to fight man-made climate change by establishing a comprehensive program to reduce greenhouse gas emissions from all sources throughout the state.  But its real goal was bestow on California’s aristocratic socialists control of the California economy free from the burden of voter input.

This new financial clout comes at a favorable time, given California’s socialist politicians have run up the largest state debt in the country at $265 billion, the largest unfunded pension liability at United States at approximately $568 billion, and a current general-fund budget deficit of $9 billion.

There is no Reaganesque figure in California able to battle the state’s entrenched socialists into supporting limited government and maximum personal liberty.  According to a 2009 study, the economic impact of AB 32’s cap-and-trade and regulatory features will be like an economic tax of destroyed.

California’s aristocratic socialists control the AB 32 bureaucracies. Poor taxpayers have no voice in AB 32’s decision makings, nor will they benefit from what is increasingly seen as junk science. There are plenty of new resources to sustain aristocrats and their crony amigos.

What I do not understand is why we put up with this. Why do Government workers continue to ignore the facts, when they retire they are not going to get those large check they were promised, their is not enough money in the pond and there is no way fill it before they retire.

[Douglas Keachie]

Government workers are not ignoring the facts in CALSTRS case. There is discussion and calls for reform. Here is a sample from www.CALSTRS.com:

"Since 2006, CalSTRS has communicated to members, employers and the Legislature about the projected funding shortfall or unfunded actuarial obligation (UAO). The shortfall is based on an actuarial valuation, which is a snapshot of the fund’s assets and liabilities.

CalSTRS assets must balance with cost of future benefits over the long term to pay the pension promise to all generations of teachers. Based on current projections, CalSTRS has assets to pay benefits through the early 2040s. If there is no change to contribution levels, the state as plan sponsor would be obligated to fund benefits on a pay-as-you-go basis.

CalSTRS funding level has fluctuated over 98 years. Historically, investment returns have contributed about 60 percent of the retirement benefit. The 2008 world economic turmoil and the 2001 dot com bust created lower than expected investment returns. Contribution rates for members have not changed in nearly 40 years.

The recent economic downturn confirms that relying on investment returns alone is not a viable strategy to reducing the gap. The significant financial losses CalSTRS experienced during the global economic downturn make it unreasonable to assume that future investments will be enough to eliminate the unfunded liability. Reasonable and predictable contribution rates will need to be increased to offset the impact of investment losses. While members’ retirement benefits won’t change as a result of the downturn; the longer we wait to address the gap, the higher the cost.

History of Board Discussions About the Unfunded Actuarial Obligation
Analysis of the Governor's October 2011 Pension Reform Proposal
Teachers Retirement Board Addresses Funding Gap
Funding gap related board meeting agendas
Resources to Help Understand the Funding Gap
Reports and video presentations
Frequently Asked Questions
Answers to how the funding gap affects CalSTRS retirement system
"

[Douglas Keachie]

You want to see "governement out of control" and racism in action, this last week?

"From Christopher Goffard of the Los Angeles Times:

Amormino (police spokesman who debriefed the officers) said he did not know why the deputy felt threatened, or how many shots were fired, or whether Loggins was armed.

Marine sources said Loggins was not in possession of a weapon.

Loggins was taken to Mission Hospital, where he died. Major Christopher Cox said Loggins had been scheduled to work at 7:30 that morning at the base, where he managed the in-bound and out-bound cargo. Cox, who was Loggins’ supervisor, said the 31-year-old Marine was a devout Christian who often took his daughters to the San Clemente High track for what he called “prayer walks.”

“They would take their Bibles and walk around the track in the morning,” Cox said. He said Loggins’ wife usually accompanied them but is pregnant and was unable to go. “She’s just so pregnant now, she stopped going,” Cox said. Cox said Loggins volunteered with a Big Brothers group and at nursing homes, and was close to earning a bachelor’s degree in nursing.

“He was a mentor, somewhat of a father figure, to a number of the Marines,” Cox said. “He was very soft-spoken, very nonconfrontational — very, very respectful. He was just the epitome of respect.”. Cox said he and other Marines were trying to make sense of the shooting and were frustrated with the lack of information.

“I’ve got some Marines that are very upset,” he said.

The deputy who shot him was placed on administrative leave, which is routine. His name has not been released.

Loggins has no history of mental treatment, is not a combat vet but rather supervises freight loading for the corps and was soon to be available for officers candidate school and a full commission.

As for police officers, unnamed, untested, we know nothing. All we know is that an officer “lost it” and murdered a Marine, an act of panic, seeing a black man get too close to a very expensive vehicle in an area where racial tensions run high and police are traditionally not answerable for actions against minorities."

[billy T]

Russ, thank goodness we have our own Gov Brown to prevent the United States of America from becoming a Third World Country. http://www.redstate.com/cringinghere/2012/02/05/boondoggle-projects-threaten-california-with-third-world-status/

[billy T]

Mr. Keeachie, I am confident you are aware that unlike CalPers, and bailout/additional State funding of CalSTRS must be approved first by the Legislature. With the current make up of the California legislature, you can sleep easy at night. Well, unless.....

[George Rebane]

DougK 1142pm - I wonder if CalSTRS is willing to sign a contract to their purported solvency until 2040, and in so doing not approach the taxpayers for more money.

[Douglas Keachie]

Let's see, things I can worry about, in no super particular order:

Unplanned meeting with incapacitated driver on the road, or on the slopes

My body's molecules getting into fights with one another and not cooperating, i.e., aging, cancer, heart disease. Or same happening to wife most lovely Valentine of mine.

Major forest fire in our area, between us and Oregon House Peak, 10,000's of acres of trees.

Branch falling from tree. konk!

Spider, snake, cougar bites, and the like.

A nice grand epidemic that plays no favorites.

Nuclear explosion, one or more, most likely far away, but could be San Francisco, fallout is world wide, regardless.

CALSTRS "purported solvency until 2040,"

If you want more and better teachers, you need to treat them nicely.

The Worry-free Man's Hat. Each doll in hatband takes care of some of your worries, Central or South American origin.

[billy T]

Mr. Keachie, you forget The Plague and unplanned pregnancy. Nice pic of man with lovely blue eyes. I told him I was a 16 year old year girl and he agreed to be my Valentine. See, no worries. I was always nice to my teachers. We used to make them paddles for swatting our rear ends in wood shop. They appreciated them and used them on special occasions. Some of the more enterprising students and future engineers or sadists found out if you drill small holes in the paddles in strategically placed patterns, the paddle would add sting along with hurt. The teachers always wanted to teach me a lesson and hear my cries for mercy. So, to oblige them and make them feel better, I would stuff neatly folded and concealed gym towels down the back of my jeans. When the swats came, I would not feel the blunt of the paddle, yet I screamed out in feigned pain and made an assortment of hair raising ghastly noises which was music to their ears. See, I went out of my way to be nice to my teachers. Oh, they are protesting in Greece again. Nothing new in the news.

[billy T]

Looks like Obama's budget will not help out our cities. I don't invest in tax free munis, but each year LA searches high and low to find buyers of their debt. Same with Frisco. Also in the budget are zero funds for vouchers to DC parents seeking to yank their kids from DC public schools. That is being nice to the teachers who oppose such a move. http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/02/13/us-usa-budget-municipals-idUSTRE81C1AZ20120213 Anybody know anyone that has bought Obama's stimulus Build America Bonds?

[Douglas Keachie]

"A nice grand epidemic that plays no favorites."

Did not forget The Plague, just worded it differently. BTW, by 2040 I'll be 95, and still working 9 to 5, now that the Fit has hit the Shan (son of Shah).

[Douglas Keachie]

http://youtu.be/Joo90ZWrUkU?t=18s

[billy T]

Mr. Keachie, yes I missed that big word you used. Epidemic has four syllables and I usually don't understand big words. Plague is nice and short and saves on space. Like the submariners returning back from World War 2 called it going Asiatic. Means post traumatic stress disorder or something like that I suppose. My Dad, the submariner, loved Tennessee Ford and played that song over and over again on the record player. Love the ending. Also, George Bernard Shaw and the old song Swing Low Sweet Chariot. But I digress again. What makes you think at 95 you will be working 9 to 5. What makes you so special? You will be up and going by 7, so don't think you will be sleeping in to 8. Those nice smooth consistent movements come around 6:30 am. Well, maybe Brussels will let you sleep in. http://www.glennbeck.com/content/blog/show/daniel-hannan-europe-is-a-grizzly-image-of-the-future/

[Gregory]

Keachie's account of a racist police shooting had me wondering if this might me more of the same hitting the RR fan. Yep.

The Deputy Sheriff's union released this statement:
" On February, 7, 2012, at around 4:30 in the morning, Manuel Loggins Jr., 31, driving with his two daughters, 9 and 14, unseatbelted in the back seat of his GMC Yukon, plowed through a locked gate at San Clemente High School.

The force of the crash left sections of the gate embedded in the bottom of the Yukon and drew the attention of an on-duty sheriff’s deputy who was in an adjacent parking lot writing reports.

After coming to a stop, Loggins got out of the Yukon, ignored repeated orders from the uniformed deputy sheriff, and walked off into the dark, abandoning his two daughters left behind in the Yukon. The deputy began to follow Loggins on foot when he heard children’s screams coming from the car. The deputy then returned to the Yukon, and found Loggins’ two girls.

Loggins, now in a darkened part of the adjacent field, could be heard yelling irrational statements. The deputy radioed for immediate assistance, informing dispatchers of a hit-and-run accident and child endangerment situation.

Additional sheriff’s personnel arrived and comforted the children in the back seat. Loggins’ children told deputies their father had been acting oddly. A few minutes later, Loggins unexpectedly and quickly returned to his Yukon. Deputies repeatedly ordered him to stop. Loggins did not stop, ignoring the deputies who now had their weapons drawn, and got into the driver’s side of the car, despite multiple warnings.

Deputies warned Loggins not to start the car. Loggins ignored these and repeated other warnings, started the Yukon and placed it in gear. It was then clear that Loggins was going to drive off and further endanger the children. As the Yukon began to move forward, he was shot by the deputy next to the driver’s window. The car was stopped, the children were removed and medical aid was rendered to Loggins, who did not survive."

Very sad, but I think it's a bit premature for the Keachie's of the world to be painting the deputy as a born again Klansman.

Regarding CalPERS and CalSTRS... the shortfalls will not be made up. Promises were made that cannot be kept.

[billy T]

Gregory, great "other side of the story". Protecting children is of utmost importance. Concerning the shortfalls of Calpers and CalSTRS, we disagree. I believe the State of California is on the hook for any and all shortfalls regarding Calpers. When a state pension plan is set up, the federal law governing the formation of state pensions plans requires the state to open its coffers to keep the pension plan solvent. Not the case with CalSTRS, which is different and requires an act of the state legislature to increase funding or change terms. Funny, just yesterday the head of Calpers was belly aching about the unfair tax rates those running private equity funds receive. Their profits are taxed as gains, not ordinary income. Calpers is heavily invested in private equity funds, as well as CalSTRS. Seems those who call for a tax on every transaction made on Wall Street do not realize their pensions make thousands of transactions each week, thus resulting in lower returns.

[Douglas Keachie]

Breaking News! Hell Froze Over! Greg reports the word of a Union officer as truth. The two stories are very, very, far apart. I'll await many more details, especially, did the deputy have a taser? If so, why not use it? Only thing I could think off that would derail a man with that past would be learning that his wife was having an affair, not likely if she is pregnant, and even then, he sounded a lot more controlled than that. Or, he had a very well kept secret backside.

As regards CALSTRS, always have a plan B, why do you think we bought so cheaply so far out in the boonies? In the banana belt, spring hits here 1 month earlier than Grass Valley. Enough trees to burn wood for fuel forever.

[Douglas Keachie]

One other thing, the gate on the bottom of the SUV, and the fact that he regularly used the place. How high was the "gate"? The images of the Yukon show no damage tp the front end in the aerials. I look forward most to information from the two girls, who will more know more than anyone what happened. Was the "gate" simply a low hanging chain that the deputy put up, being curious about this regular visitor, and having no good reason to question him. Unseatbelted girls may have been getting ready to go out for the walk. Hitting the chain that had never been there before might have been a real annoyance for him, especially if the cop then copped an attitude.

[Gregory]

The girls were going for a walk at 4:30AM?

Just goes to show how Keachie will just make stuff up to justify his initial ravings.

I grew up in a union family, Keach, and never said they were all bad, except when it comes to the hold public employee unions have on state politics and, not coincidentally, on pay and benefits the polticians then give public employee unions in a grand quid pro quo.

BT, while the state may be "on the hook" for CalPERS, I expect the state will go belly up, and appointed adult supervision will wave a pen and rejigger pension obligations with PERS reality.

[Douglas Keachie]

The Union rep[ort just showed up four hours ago, and Greg avoided the holes it opened. The biggest hole, of course is where is this supposed "gate", who put it up and when?

The second question is, do you shoot a man in cold blood at point blank range for breaking a lousy gate?

Could have shot out two of four tires, no traffic at 4:30 am, other officers on scene. I'll await the lawsuit, which the County will lose, if this is what it appears to be, an arrogant cop coverup. Watched a bust locally the other day, cop leaning beside the perp, who was screaming his head off. At first it wasn't obvious, and then it became clear, that despite the fact the perp was on the ground, on his stomach, and handcuffed, the cop was holding his upper arm, between his thumb and index finger, and needlessly applying painful pinching pressure, while appearing to be doing nothing. What an art!

BTW, what about the risk of a bullet flying around inside the cab of the SUV and endangering children? Now that was dangerous.

[billy T]

Back to The Off and On of the Inevitable (Addended. Looks like we are all preparing for the final collapse of Greece. Can't even get my hopes up on this one. Inevitable is correct, Dr. Rebane. Greece is not only legally bankrupt, it is insolvent by any economic measure. Over a year ago hospitals in Greece had to wait 9 months or longer to be paid. And the situation has not improved. When President Reagen heard that the citizens of the former Soviet Union had to wait 6 months for an auto part or 2 years to buy a car, Reagen immediately replied the Soviet Union cannot survive much longer. He intuitively knew at that moment the Evil Empire was falling apart under its own weight. Same with Greece. Oh, that good news we heard from Greece just yesterday? Hold on, things are not the way they seem.http://finance.yahoo.com/news/setback-greece-bailout-meeting-canceled-190042881.html

[Gregory]

Just where was the story that it was a shooting motivated by race, Keach? Or did you just make that up?

"Arrogant cop coverup"? Just where did you get your ideas?

[George Rebane]

billyT 744pm - to me the most remarkable phenomenon in light of Greece et al is the response of the markets responding to the up/down news of austerity measures and German approvals. These markets don't seem to accept the inevitability of Greece's fate, especially as they treat the price of precious metals.

[Douglas Keachie]

"Just where was the story that it was a shooting motivated by race, Keach? Or did you just make that up?

"Arrogant cop coverup"? Just where did you get your ideas?
"

From a few simple obvious facts.

I've never heard of a cop shooting to death a person in front of his kids, putting their lives at risk from a ricocheting bullet, over a broken gate, especially one so small no traces are visible anywhere. Have you?

Two, man was described as a religious person, and quite possibly wanted to take some time to cool off after hitting mysterious gate that apparently had not been there before, if he typically made trips to that spot at that time slot. His way of talking to God might have sounded "strange" to a cop of non black skin melanin content. If it had been a black cop, I rather doubt that his behavior would have seemed that weird or threatening. Again, to me, it sounds like some sort of weird setup that got out of hand.

Unless he was having a stroke, his actions simply do NOT match up to the descriptions that many who knew him for months and years gave, as compared to the supposed descriptions of him given by one or more cops who apparent knew him for less than ten minutes before deciding to become judge, jury, and executioner. Perhaps the cop had watched that show the night before documenting the dad who blew up his two kids and himself after kicking out the social worker, shown on Dateline. That is the only defense I can think of for him.

Time will tell. Still siding with the sheriff's union, eh Greg? For me it doesn't pass the Truthness Test.

[Douglas Keachie]

"The association said a deputy saw Loggins plow a car through a gate at San Clemente High School then walk away.

His daughters, ages 9 and 14, could be heard screaming in the SUV, and when approached by sheriff's personnel reported their father had been acting oddly, the statement said.

Loggins regularly took early morning prayer walks at the high school track with his family, according to his supervisor Maj. Christopher Cox.

Loggins' wife usually went with him to the track but stopped going because she is nearly nine months pregnant. The couple also has a toddler, according to Cox.

The Orange County Sheriff's Department did not initially report that the girls spoke to deputies before the shooting.

The department previously said the girls were in the SUV when their father was shot to death but did not mention their comments to authorities.

Loggins, of Joliet, Ill., enlisted in the Marine Corps in 1998. He received multiple medals and commendations from the military and had no deployments to Iraq or Afghanistan.

Source: New Details Released in Marine's Death | NBC San Diego

[Douglas Keachie]

"eported their father had been acting oddly," just is not part of any contemporary black teenage dialect I've run into.

[Douglas Keachie]

If you want "odd" and hiphop, try this group from Scotland: http://stanleyodd.bandcamp.com/track/ten-to-one-solareye-demo

[Gregory]

Keachie, this is one of those times where you need to settle down and wait for information, rather than just make stuff up.

Besides stroke, there's a number of psychiatric conditions major and minor that can drive even good people to bad decisions, and not following lawful requests by law enforcement attempting to detain you is a very bad idea.

Truth? Keachie, don't use big words you don't understand. At this point, there is no good information contrary to the statement by the officer's union rep. Why not wait for reality to catch up before you invent more of it?

[Douglas Keachie]

Greg, so if we needed to "wait and see" why ??? did you bother to even post the union's version of what went down,as they work hard to achieve plausible deniability, as in, "well yes judge, I guess it was AFTER we shot their dad, not before, that they started screaming."

[Douglas Keachie]

"Besides stroke, there's a number of psychiatric conditions major and minor that can drive even good people to bad decisions,"

I wonder which of all the posssible conditions might have driven the cop to such a rotten decision. Based on his actions, a father and good Marine is dead, over a broken gate. And again, who is responsible for putting that gate there and when was it put in place and was closure at 4:30 am a repeated pattern, or something that just happened for the first time? Look for simple causes first.

[Brad Croul]

Where was the threat to the cops? A guy runs over a gate in the dark. The cops show up. The unarmed guy walks toward his car and two armed cops so they shoot him in self defense? Sounds about like the Grass Valley cop who shot the woman at the fairgrounds for disobeying the cop by turning right instead of left. Where were their Tasers?
They always have some "excuse" for their excessive use of force.

[Gregory]

Keach, why not wait until the family hires a lawyer, or not? The two daughters were witness to it all. If any of your inventions are accidentally true, there will be a lawsuit; if not, it's very possible that the account relayed by the union is accurate and the deceased was acting irrationally while resisting arrest and ignoring lawful orders, it was reasonable for the deputies (plural) to have drawn their weapons and deadly force was justified to stop him from leaving in the large SUV after ignoring multiple commands from officers (with weapons drawn) to stop.

It's a sad situation and there are multiple official investigations underway, all by people (unlike the usual suspects here) with a history of rational thought.

I expect I am predisposed to obeying a Deputy who, with their firearm drawn, tells me to stop what I am doing. I suspect I am even more predisposed to follow such orders when multiple deputies have their guns drawn.

[Gregory]

"why ??? did you bother to even post the union's version of what went down"

Because the union was speaking for the multiple deputies who were there, and that account is in accord with the limited statements by their department and the district attorney investigating. Unlike your account which was just a reactionary slander of the officer who pulled the trigger.

[Douglas Keachie]

"I expect I am predisposed to obeying a Deputy who, with their firearm drawn, tells me to stop what I am doing. I suspect I am even more predisposed to follow such orders when multiple deputies have their guns drawn. "

It is still not clear to me or this Ron Paul site as to why the deputies would have drawn guns over a broken gate?

http://www.dailypaul.com/213914/breaking-trigger-happy-occa-sheriffs-deputy-murders-an-unarmed-usmc-while-getting-his-kids-into-his-car

Compared to them I'd say I'm rather restrained.

A man goes with his daughters to his favorite meditation spot. Driving through what has always been an open driveway he hits a low hanging chain that has never been there. He gets out to investigate and meets a snarky cop who clearly has set himself up to be in the catbird seat, because he can't figure out why this dude is here every morning at this "odd" hour, walking around the track, muttering to himself.chain. Driver dude immediately senses the setup, and comes to a slow boil, and goes off to solace to pray about what to do with the arsehole in blue? He comes back, still angry, and ignores the blue meanie, as that is what God has "told" him to do.

As for multiple officers and guns all drawn, I'm not even sure that is all true. As you have pointed out, it will take time, but at this point I do not trust the man in blue to be telling the whole truth, based on changing stories, etc. We shall see.

Breaking gates with intent to do further maliciousness usually only occurs in movies with armed and plainly dangerous folks, and I have yet to hear of a perp who takes his daughters along for the ride. Mom and soon to be four kids, fatherless, due to very bad call by officer, continues to be my call, and no, this does not mean all cops spend all their time making bad calls, but you'll have to admit, it has be known to happen from time to time.

What Did You Learn in School Today?
Words and Music by Tom Paxton

What did you learn in school today,
Dear little boy of mine?
What did you learn in school today,
Dear little boy of mine?
I learned that Washington never told a lie.
I learned that soldiers seldom die.
I learned that everybody's free.
And that's what the teacher said to me.
That's what I learned in school today.
That's what I learned in school.

What did you learn in school today,
Dear little boy of mine?
What did you learn in school today,
Dear little boy of mine?
I learned that policemen are my friends.
I learned that justice never ends.
I learned that murderers die for their crimes.
Even if we make a mistake sometimes.
That's what I learned in school today.
That's what I learned in school.

What did you learn in school today,
Dear little boy of mine?
What did you learn in school today,
Dear little boy of mine?
I learned our government must be strong.
It's always right and never wrong.
Our leaders are the finest men.
And we elect them again and again.
That's what I learned in school today.
That's what I learned in school.

What did you learn in school today,
Dear little boy of mine?
What did you learn in school today,
Dear little boy of mine?
I learned that war is not so bad.
I learned of the great ones we have had.
We fought in Germany and in France.
And some day I might get my chance.
That's what I learned in school today.
That's what I learned in school.

[Douglas Keachie]

Yes, if someone break through your gate or mine in the middle of the night, that is an entirely different matter, as those would be occupied private residences, not unoccupied, empty school areas, apparently out by the track, not near the main administrative buildings, where records and computers abound.

[Gregory]

"It is still not clear to me or this Ron Paul site as to why the deputies would have drawn guns over a broken gate?"

It wasn't "over a broken gate", and that wasn't a "Ron Paul" site, that was one unmoderated sockpuppet blogger named "AnCapMercenary", short for Anarcho-Capitalist, just another flavor of anarchist. Here's his twits:
https://twitter.com/ancapmercenary

Limited, constitutional government does not mean no government; this guy probably has no sense about how posts like that damage Ron Paul and the libertarian Republican wing.

[Douglas Keachie]

First images showing up, now we see the "gate," which appears to me to be just as likely to be the remains of a traffic divider which could have been at several points in the general area.

http://v9.lscache6.c.bigcache.googleapis.com/static.panoramio.com/photos/original/23330857.jpg

Here is an aerial view of the entrance area, and you can plainly see there is a full traffic lighted intersection and two full lanes that turn in towards the parking lot, and on towards the track area. There is a convenient parking area behind the brick building, close to the track. I'd need to check further, but the orientation of the brick building and the SUV would indicate that he was going further into towards the track, not attempting to flee the scene.

http://v9.lscache6.c.bigcache.googleapis.com/static.panoramio.com/photos/original/23330857.jpg

[Douglas Keachie]

This should have been the first link posted above: http://sanclemente.patch.com/articles/man-shot-by-deputy-in-san-clemente-high-school-parking-lot#photo-9059220

[Douglas Keachie]

After a careful consideration of available aerial photos, I would conclude that the four holes indicated in this one probably represent a traffic barrier to keep kids from jumping the first turnoff into the parking areas. It would have been in line with his direction of travel, and not very visible at night. A moments inattention and he would have taken it out.

It is puzzling that a man in a vehicle in motion would have come to a halt with his car perfectly lined up with the direction of travel. I think that we might consider that when a cop pulls his gun from his holster, his squad car would run a tape that states for all in the vicinity to hear, "Warning, I am about to use deadly force."

[Douglas Keachie]

Here are many of my complaints and a few more illuminations from the locals. BTW, why did the multiple cops comforting the kids not take their unseatbleted kids out of the vehicle?

http://sanclemente.patch.com/articles/deputies-union-defends-marine-shooting

[Gregory]

Linking George's post with the usual sidetracking, I expect the Greek rioters have a lot in common with the Keachies of the world who choose to invent realities rather than understand the one we have.

The reality is that Greece is over their heads in hock, and even faced with financial collapse, the wards of the state, be they employees, retirees or those on the dole are rioting rather than accept reductions in their manna from the state. I expect California will be looking more like Greece than that state that had a Republican governor and legislature change things just part way.

"Ohhh, Bartleby. Was Wisconsin really *that* bad? " - Metatron

[Douglas Keachie]

Currently we have no "reality" for the puzzle that I am taking a stab at unraveling, as you yourself, Greg, have already admitted. I am not "making one up," I am presenting a variety of hypothesis. Let's face it, other than keeping a more stance around police, as photography and law enforcement cases are a mishmash in this country, as to whether or not you can photograph police at work. I never had any problems so far, but new laws and interpretations are including a vast array of weird twists. Guess what, you can't publish a photo of your college professor, and I assume that taking now implies publishing:

From CPC422

"422.4. (a) Any person who publishes information describing or
depicting an academic researcher or his or her immediate family
member, or the location or locations where an academic researcher or
an immediate family member of an academic researcher may be found,
with the intent that another person imminently use the information to
commit a crime involving violence or a threat of violence against an
academic researcher or his or her immediate family member, and the
information is likely to produce the imminent commission of such a
crime, is guilty of a misdemeanor, punishable by imprisonment in a
county jail for not more than one year, a fine of not more than one
thousand dollars ($1,000), or by both a fine and imprisonment.
(b) For the purposes of this section, all of the following apply:
(1) "Publishes" means making the information available to another
person through any medium, including, but not limited to, the
Internet, the World Wide Web, or e-mail.
(2) "Academic researcher" has the same meaning as in Section
602.12.
(3) "Immediate family" means any spouse, whether by marriage or
not, domestic partner, parent, child, any person related by
consanguinity or affinity within the second degree, or any other
person who regularly resides in the household, or who, within the
prior six months, regularly resided in the household.
(4) "Information" includes, but is not limited to, an image,
film, filmstrip, photograph, negative, slide, photocopy, videotape,
video laser disc, or any other computer-generated image.
(c) Any academic researcher about whom information is published in
violation of subdivision (a) may seek a preliminary injunction
enjoining any further publication of that information. This
subdivision shall not apply to a person or entity protected pursuant
to Section 1070 of the Evidence Code.
(d) This section shall not apply to any person who is lawfully
engaged in labor union activities that are protected under state or
federal law.
(e) This section shall not preclude prosecution under any other
provision of law."

[Douglas Keachie]

A disease that might have affected him? http://www.latimes.com/news/local/la-me-dementia-20120210,0,5574998.story

[Gregory]

Keach, the less you know about something, the more hypotheticals you seem capable of spinning.

You went right to a position of bigotry against the deputy based on nothing at all but your predispositions. Shame on you.

[Douglas Keachie]

Show me a white cop who shot and killed a white driver for running into a gate, at low speed, in the dark, where the victim has no weapon.....I'm waiting....BTW, if you read the stuff from down there, you'll find a woman who has said, "that gate's always been open.." Cops' story has had several major changes.... BTW, I almost got run over as a pedestrian on a city sidewalk, and realized that I had to look UP to see the driver and scream. I can imagine from the remains of the gate that it was off his radar, if it normally wasn't in place.

[Gregory]

Keach, it wasn't for smashing the gate. It wasn't for leaving the smashed gate despite being told to remain there (the hit and run). It wasn't for the irrational yelling in the darkness. It was for getting in the car (despite deputies' guns being drawn) and, despite being ordered not to, starting the SUV and putting it in gear.

There were no changes in stories. The department released part, the DA released part, then the union released more. There were additions but nothing I saw that contradicted earlier info.

Yes, whites who are evading arrest, start their car and begin driving away (a car is a deadly weapon) have been shot. It's a simple concept... if a Deputy Sheriff is pointing a gun at you and telling you not to do something, if you do it you may well get shot.

[Douglas Keachie]

"Yes, whites who are evading arrest,"

for knocking down a simple gate or meridian divider? Find the case. Irrational yelling may be another man's talking with God. Ignoring "orders" from having spent his entire life being so careful for 31 years to avoid confrontation with police, and then taking out a gate in front of a parked cruiser (the original story) just unleashed the floodgates of stress, and led to irrational choices.

One way to make sure to remember full stops at stop signs is to imagine a high speed chase in progress, and spend time looking for it. And do your best to avoid or be overly cautious at photo intersections. It's the latest form of taxation, no they haven't tapped my wallet so far....knock on wood and think high speed chase.

[Gregory]

"for knocking down a simple gate or meridian divider"

No, and you've been shown why.

[Douglas Keachie]

As for no inconsistencies, somebody's already done all the work for us. Lots of inconsistencies:

http://beatandrelease.blogspot.com/

I suggest you read it and weep.

*********************************************

"No, and you've been shown why."

Does this mean that you are unable to find one case where breaking a gate at low speed, and the cop shoots and kills the driver? That's how I would read, glad to see you agree with me.

BTW, how come you artfully knocked out my question mark?

"for knocking down a simple gate or meridian divider" yours

"for knocking down a simple gate or meridian divider?" mine

[Douglas Keachie]

If you didn't like that first listing on inconsistencies, here's another one from a very right wing group, just to make the sack of Greg complete:

http://constitutionclub.org/2012/02/15/orange-county-deputy-kills-decorated-marine/

[Gregory]

He was shot not for the smashing through a gate, but rather, a few minutes later, after failing to comply with multiple orders by officers, for responding to a 'stop or I'll shoot' order with a failure to stop.

You know this yet continue a with willful denial of the facts. Not that this is unusual.

Your chosen reference starts with his proof the car didn't run the gate, based on his expert knowledge of cars running through gates, that the aerial shot of the car proved it didn't run through a gate, but then there's the shot (courtesy of the local paper) of the car on the flatbed with obvious damage to the right front fender and the remains of the gate. No need to go further, but if one does, the rest of his polemic is more of the same. Good thing for the rest of us that he wasn't a police officer more than 20 years.

Multiple responsible authorities are investigating, and so the world doesn't need Keachies spinning hypotheticals that are already in conflict with publicly known facts.

[Douglas Keachie]

The damage on the right fender is not at all consistent with the pile of poles and pipe shown on the flatbed, but not shown in the initial aerials, Greg doesn't have one "publically known "fact" to his name, other than than a Marine is murdered and a pile of stories from the police more twisted than the poles and chained stashed under the SUV on the flatbed tow truck. Never claimed SUV didn't crash into something, although you could go so far as to claim cop smashed gate with own vehicle to fab his story, but I don't think so.

Check out the image. The red stuff on the right fender is not exactly consistent with grey pipe, and the whole rest of the front end is unscathed. If he "crashed through the gate" then what sort of miracle material is that front end made of? I want some. Looks to me like a glancing blow, right fender only, and why is it tinged reddish, and there are no pole shaped indentations?

[Douglas Keachie]

So Greg, anytime a cop takes it to mind to draw his gun and say the magic words, "stop or I'll shoot," said cop is absolutely entitled to pull the trigger? I don't doubt that it was stupid on Loggins part to do the experiment, but you seem to be taking the notion this additional step, that of exhonorating the cop from any responsibility for using the drawn gun and phrase appropriately. Is that the case? Then all a cop has to do to justify homicide in your book is say, "well, I told him to stop, he didn't stop, end of story." Thanks one hellova lot from those of us who are hearing impaired, and gunned down with no warning, that we can hear, not to mention those who may be wrapped up in mental illness of one sort or another, or drunk, stoned etc.

A cop, just saying the magic words, "Stop or I'll shoot," and a cop only, can get away with murder in Greg's universe. RIP Greg, so you didn't hear it over the roar of the airplane's propellors? tsk tsk, bang, the cop shot you justifiably dead, using your apparent choice of logic.

[Gregory]

"The damage on the right fender is not at all consistent with the pile of poles and pipe shown on the flatbed"

Sure it is. The brownish marks match the paint that's missing from the poles.

Keach, this is indicative of the sort of 'hypotheticals' you presented as a teacher in the classroom, isn't it?

[Douglas Keachie]

If you look closely at the poles, you can see several different splotches, in severl diffent shades of grey, and the reflective tape. I do not see any brown there, and surely not every bit of brown would have been cleaned off.

Again, do the magic words, "stop or I'll shoot," give the cop an unconditional license to kill? And in this pareticular instances, do you see enough justification, if it is needed at all in your world?

[Douglas Keachie]

The best evidence of a recent collision is the bumper light, detached but still hanging on by a wire.

[Gregory]

Using a clock as a reference, the pipe pointing to 2 clearly has a brownish paint that has been half scraped off. There are also striations consistent with such damage.

The answer to my question, "Keach, this is indicative of the sort of 'hypotheticals' you presented as a teacher in the classroom, isn't it?" is almost certainly "yes".

[George Rebane]

Administrivia - This will be the last post on RR on which the 'Greg and Doug Show' will appear. Their one-on-one mudball fights are abusive, off topic, and boring to all but each other. I apologize to my other readers for allowing these exchanges to go on over the last several weeks (months?).

[Douglas Keachie]

Given that the issue has wandered into activities of the coming police state, I felt the information and positions taken was informative and of interest to all.

[Douglas Keachie]

Recalibrate the color settings of your monitor, Greg, and get a bigger one, The pipe pointed strainght at you has no hints of brown anywhere, HP 2558hc works good for me.

[Douglas Keachie]

Upon looking even more closely, it appears that the gate may have been a single pole, horizontal, with chains dangling down, which struck the vehicle just below what I would take to be the hood latch, and for some reason did not take out the right side light. In fact, the damage to the right side, including the punched out bumper light, appears to have possibly come from an entirely separate collision. The long pole appears to have been pretzeled, notice the looping curve. George, I like puzzles, and this one is a good one.

[Gregory]

George, I also find it boring. So is brushing my teeth and cleaning up other people's messes.

[Douglas Keachie]

Nope, chains appear to be merely excess chain from the tow truck tie downs. So "gate" was merely one long pole? Material doesn't look long enough to cover any of the possible openings.

[Gregory]

George, Keachie hijacked this thread here, about at the 20% mark from the current bottom, in more ways than one:

http://rebaneruminations.typepad.com/rebanes_ruminations/2012/02/the-off-and-on-of-the-inevitable.html?cid=6a00e54f86f2ad88330167624ffba1970b#comment-6a00e54f86f2ad88330167624ffba1970b

Imagine everyone's relief had you stopped it in its tracks.