Debate1 Thoughts (updated 8oct12)

George Rebane

In presidential debates I haven’t seen a better performance than Romney’s since Reagan took the stage in the 1980s.  While everyone and their brother is publishing voter sentiments on the debate, Gallup is strangely silent.  It’s as if the debate never happened when you look at their website.  I was hoping to use their poll to adjudicate a prediction competition (see ‘Prognosticators – An invitation to the dance’). The clearest voter sentiment poll comes from CNN with 67% saying Romney won, and 25% saying Obama won last night’s debate.

But what interests me most is the copy put out by many pundits this morning on the nature of the debate.  The consensus there seems to be that the debate was a bit too obtuse with numbers and facts and all those specifics.  This is a bit troubling, because it is a commentary on what the electorate really understands about how the country works.

I look at three levels of ‘information’ that candidates can deliver in such debates.  The most detailed is the kind that Romney mostly, but also Obama, delivered last night.  Going into specific dollar amounts, time periods, tax rates, and growth rates that decorated their plans and with which they painted their opponents plans.  This approach assumes that the listeners have some basic matrix of knowledge ready to receive, organize, and then communicate the whole as all the numbers are hung in their proper places.

The next lower level of specificity is the declaration of their individual futures in broad adjectival terms like ‘full employment’, ‘more rapid growth’, ‘balanced budgets’, ‘tax breaks for the wealthy’, ‘level playing field’, and so on.  These are formed into arguments and counter arguments salutary to oneself, and showing the opponent in the worst light.  The strength of this debate format is all in the delivery, and the emotions evoked in the listener.  Unless there is a surprising one line zinger, the results are primarily determined by the strength of what behavioral economists and psychologists call confirmation bias (q.v.).  Basically, both candidates deliver big dollops of pabulum hoping that it comes across as substance to untutored ears.

The third level gets into political and economic philosophy in which both candidates describe the meta-structure and operating characteristics of how a society works.  Here we will encounter such notions as ‘collectivism’ defined, the Laffer curve celebrated or castigated, the blessings and evils of laissez faire markets, the role of taxes in a recovery, the intrinsic responsibilities of government, the proper relationships of worker productivity and workforce levels as they affect GDP and the nation’s overall quality of life, the desired role of the US as world hegemon, and so on.

What almost every political junkie will agree on is that the middle level communicates ‘best’ with the electorate.  After such a debate no one will complain that the candidates “spent a surprising amount of time on granular policy details.”  Pure pabulum always comes in a perfectly clear package.  It is there where the real connections are made with voters who think they understood the most of what was said.

My own preference is to witness what we did last night – the ‘granular’ level of discourse – or the third level.  Truth be told, I’d like to hear most about the candidates’ meta level views of how they think humans work in different sizes of groups, what they consider as natural constraints on human cooperation, what meta-principles and constants should we derive from our Constitution, the role of culture(s) in maintaining America as a sovereign nation-state, the role of such states in the world order, and so on.  To me understanding these beliefs of the candidates is most important, because it is these that will drive the general thrust of their policies while in office.  The details will be mangled here and there by exigencies of uncontrolled events, politics, and God knows what else.

[5oct12 update]  The 5oct12 lead editorial in the WSJ sounds like a compendium of RR posts characterizing the liberal dialectic in its commentary on Obama’s recent debate performance.  Significant is the wider perception of how the Left uses baseless bogeymen of their own construction that they assign to their opposition, and then, shifting between great glee and high dudgeon, proceed to demolish.  The other approach used not only by Obama, but also an established practice of the lamestream, is hoovering (q.v.) – just ignore and never mention the inconvenient facts.  In this case Obama’s first term record has been completely hoovered and will continue to be so treated until 6 November.

In their post-mortems the Left is driven to develop desperate dust-ups as to why their Messiah finally got his socks wet traversing the Galilee.  Beyond impediments like hypo-oxygenation, we now hear that Romney cheated by using notes.  This was not a junior high school pop quiz.  Both men had notes, and they should have.  The United States and the world are complex systems described by uncountable numbers and processes.  To talk, let alone debate, effectively about these, one should have at his disposal notes.  Obama was so busy studying and writing his own notes that he could barely look Romney in the eye.  Not looking compelling and important issues in the eye is a longstanding character weakness of his – we recall the litany of events ranging from the Gulf oil spill to the recent murders in Benghazi, the latter he has yet to look in the eye.

This south-Chicago demagogue was definitely shown to be out of his league by his flubbed ‘3AM telephone call’ even before he got to Debate1.  And as his foreign policy onion gets peeled back layer by layer, we are finding out how truly incompetent are the White House sophomores now in power.  In the larger scheme of things, no one wants to think about ol’ Joe being a heartbeat away from the Oval Office – talk about making Sarah Palin look absolutely brilliant.  But we will have to confront the ramifications of that on 11 October for ‘Paul & Joe Show’.

Pardon me while I go light another candle for the President’s continued good health.

[8oct12 update]  Given the lamestream's spin and lamentations, if ever there was a picture worth a more than a word or two ...

 

Comments

[Tbetterman]

True to form, Greg.

[Ryan Mount]

I would recommend to Democrats, as I've recommended to Republicans regarding abortion, to stop with the "Romney/Ryan are lying" trip. Reasonable and moderate people do not believe that anyone here is lying, is evil and wishes to destroy America. Or whatever.

You're just going to alienate and annoy the independents.

I've been very critical of Conservatives and their irrational fear of the Obama they think might happen. It seemed in the past, that they were freaked by what he might do, rather than what he has actually done. Again, we need monsters (see above link).

Now's their (Republicans) chance! Obama is running on the "Just wait for the next 4 years/'We've Only Just Begun'" to fix this mess. (My apologies to the Carpenters). And to some extent, they're trying despite Romney's past incompetence.

Even NYT Paul Krugman came out yesterday with the Karen Carpenter apologia for the Obama Administration. [paraphrasing] "Silly Rabbit, Trix are for kids. This recession is going to go on for a long time. You can't fix it in 4 years!"

Well, I happened to agree with Krugman [gasp]. But that's not what Obama promised in 2008/09, now is it? And I happen to believe they knew this or they were stupid. Either way, why would anyone vote for a liar or a bunch of ignoramuses again. GOP? Are you getting this?

[Gregory]

" and quit trying to pretend CA state taxes are the average for the entire US"

Never did, Keach. Try reading it again. The national average is 49 cents a gallon, and again, that's just the taxes levied at the pump, not all the other taxes paid. As usual, your superficial and ignorant 'analysis' of 09:12 AM just takes a sliver of information and then extrapolates wildly.

If anyone else here needs more information, just ask. If it is a known real person and not another Keachie sock (we've already had three on this thread alone), I'll be happy to oblige.

[Ryan Mount]

> I don't for a second think they think Romney or Ryan is lying

Greg. Agreed. Well, some of the disembrained do, right? At least my Facebook Democrats believe it. (see previous sentence) I was speaking from the perspective of a partisan Democrat/operative.

Axelrod is shitting bricks right now. You can see it on his face on every interview. They have no idea how to shift their campaign from "Romney the Right Wing ideologue" to "Romney the right/moderate" (which he is being a Republican from Massachusetts). So they only thing they have the lying thang. And it's going to annoy the independents in the swing states. I think the proof is in the tasting of the pudding watching the swing states move into the toss-up category.

[Gregory]

"Obama is running on the "Just wait for the next 4 years/'We've Only Just Begun'" to fix this mess."

It reminds me of Nixon's secret plan to end the war in Viet Nam.

[Tbetterman]

Since one of the three socks is the real Keachie Greg, you are pretty unintelligent. I won't bother to jump through your hoop of changing to the real Keachie sock, as you'll just continue to deny your mistake, any weasel-which way you can, as usual, true to form, Greg. Good thing you fly your plane better than you do your comments. we'd all be at risk.

[Tbetterman]

BTW Greg, no picture ever, how do we know you are not a sock? Prove your non-sockedness. Sock-it-to-me! Your obsession with socks is much like that of an HIV virus.

[Ryan Mount]

For the record, I am projected in from Facebook. String theory or something like that.

[Tbetterman]

So Ryan, you'd have to be a cap or hoodie, rather than a sock, seeing's how you're projected in from Facebook?

[Ryan Mount]

> you'd have to be a cap or hoodie,

touché

[Walt]

Libs in downtown GV must be peeved but good. I saw a bunch of new Romney/ Ryan signs in front yards and in windows up and down Mill St. today. Funny.... I didn't see one sign for "O".
I have my " "O" must go" bumper magnet on my right front wheel well right at Subaru and Prius driver's window height. I just look at them and laugh and politely wave when they give me the finger.

[Tbetterman]

Walt: So you were the guy in the blue grey pickup in front of Staples with the camera a couple of years ago!

[Gregory]

"I don't for a second think they think Romney or Ryan is lying

Greg. Agreed. Well, some of the disembrained do, right?"

Ryan, both R's and D's have their useful disembrained idiots (Keach, if the sock fits, wear it), but I thought you were referring to the Obama/Biden campaign staff and associated mouthpieces.

[Walt]

Nope, not me. You never have been good at picking me out of the crowd, even when looking ya' in the eye. Like I said a long time ago. You will never make a good "eye witness". Forget that nice snowy day on the overpass? " where is DM? Ha! I knew he wouldn't show" Sure pulled a "Joe Biteme" there. But your choice of cloths for the day was good for a laugh. Sun hat, shorts, and a Hawaiian shirt.
You know,, when the peaceniks did their little walk, and Cindy Sheehan took a car to the "meeting" instead of leading the march. Also the day when those peace activists went two faced. We informed them that "O" just launched a missile strike.( and just who was the target? OH,, Do remind us.LOL) But since it was "O",, that was fine and dandy. Never mind the signage " No more war". The response I got was, " Obama must have had a good reason".

[Gregory]

"Libs in downtown GV must be peeved but good. I saw a bunch of new Romney/ Ryan signs in front yards and in windows up and down Mill St. today. Funny.... I didn't see one sign for "O"."

Nirvana Silly left-liberals also seem to be lying low. Paul E had the election called and over two or three weeks ago, and I can't remember seeing any posts of his for awhile. Not since the polls showing how the rest of the country saw the R/O debate a week ago and the chimera of the Obama Sure Thing started dissolving.

I remember at the 4th of July parade I got some chuckles from everyone in earshot when I told my wife that I'd never underestimate the ability of the Republican Party to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory. That's still true but more and more it is looking like it's Romney & Ryan's to lose.

I see Camille Paglia has come out to endorse the Green Candidate, whoever they are. An excellent idea for any left-liberal.

[Walt]

I have to get one of those multi purpose auto upgrades.
it's called " the trunk monkey" It's worth it's wight in bananas weekly. On the other hand, In those states where things are close, you can be sure to find the "Trunk Monkey" will be repurposed to tally the votes.
And don't even try to spin that into some "race card" screed. A LIB DNC worker has been caught (and fired) for trying to "help" someone vote twice. ( AGAIN)

Here is the vid. of the "trunk monkey" in action.

www.youtube.com/watch?v=RCUBxgdKZ_Y

[Tbetterman]

Rather than backing up what he stated as fact, that the oil companies make more for the ogovernment than they do for themselves (paraphased) Gregory | 12 October 2012 at 01:42 PM can be best understood by reference to the Bob Dylan song, "Desolation Row":

"...and he went of sniffing drainpipes, and reciting the alphabet..." etc.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YA9ZR8ykRow

[Tbetterman]

This trunk monkey will again be working the voting machines at NSJ for 16 hours, start at 6am, for what amounts to $5/hour. I view it as a public service. Pays for Hospitality House if Romney wins. Are Veep candidates picked to avoid premature exits from the planet by the Presidents? Where's Woodsy? Good video, Walt!

[George Rebane]

This is getting silly. Is 'Tbetterman' yet another label for Doug Keachie that now joins 'TomKenworth'??

[Tbetterman]

Kenworth is no longer being allowed to log in, despite being logged into Twitter, Typepad keeps saying it is sorry, and yet they can't fix it. Would you like screen shots? I already wrote to you regarding my reasons for semi anonymity. Semi because it bring such joy to GG's braincage to keep posting who is whom.

[George Rebane]

Tbetterman 1052am - Doug, my main concern is that readers know and can attribute the comments in RR to a certain persona as they look at the comment streams. I have done nothing to block 'TomKenworth' from RR. For whatever reasons you prefer to be a sackhead, I'd like you to keep wearing the same sack so as not to confuse the readership.

[Walt]

Damn,, Doug,,, I guess that went over your head.( again) So you take up the title of "trunk monkey",, and in the same sentence say you will be "working" the polls. So needless to say, the "ridge" is going to the Dems no matter how people vote, even if they snapped out of their "vote Left at all costs" stupor.

Did you install that trunk monkey button on your Kubota too? ( just in case the inspector shows up.) LOL!

OK pal,, just which skit on that vid was your favorite? Mine was the chaperon, and anti theft, and retrieval.

[Tbetterman]

I did not think you would have blocked TKenworth. Possibly the twitter account is ticked off that I don't twit. Wordpress and Livejournal take too much time to log in through them, so bear with me, I'll try another one, hopefully the last.

[Tbetterman]

Walt, you were the one who brought up the idea of having a trunk monkey tally the votes. I was signed up months ago to do just that, basically tending the machine for screwups, it's all done automatically inside the black box, with the paper ballot preserved for recounts if necessary.\

My favorite? The first one reminds me of driving in SF. Someone nixed buying a truck because they are moving to SF. I pointed out that a semi beater truck is great in the city. Littler critters get smushed in the Parking Wars. Maybe we should send metermaids to Afghanistan, to let them know we mean business. A Stealth drone booting a Taliban vehicle would be a riot to see in the morning when they woke up and found it.

BTW, for sale, our Toyota Tacoma 1995 4x4, details here, including possible trade partial for HDMI 1920 x 1080 tv: http://goldcountry.craigslist.org/cto/3335527847.html

[Walt]

LOL.. I would have never have said I was the trunk monkey on duty.
You do realize there is room in the bottom of that vote tally machine ( you know the one that looks more like an industrial sized shredder) for a chimp to fit, and "monkey" with the votes. I may have to check the back of that vote counter for that button before I cast my vote. LOL!!!!