Obama's New World Disorder (updated 4mar14)

It's easier to fool people than to convince them that they have been fooled.  Mark Twain

George Rebane

As long heralded in these pages, President Obama's ignorance of foreign policy (we'll give him the benefit of our doubts) is coming into full bloom in Ukraine.  He has made it clear to all but the country's progressive numbskulls that the US is no longer a reliable partner to anyone in maintaining world order.

The lamestream's pundits and 'journalists' are still talking about Russia's “plans to invade” and partition Ukraine, and Obama's feckless threats that warrant tears and laughter from across the world.  But Putin has already invaded the Ukraine and partitioned the country, taking Crimea back under Russia's sovereign umbrella.  And more Russian troops are poised on Ukraine's eastern border to either complete the territorial partition or make it an effective Anschluss by installing ethnic Russians into all positions of power and prepared to execute whatever Moscow wants.

Our response at this point has been worse than silence.  We have threatened to pull out of a planning meeting for the G-8 conference scheduled later this year in Sochi (no need to read this again, it’s true).  Putin and his foreign minister Lavrov are rolling in laughter on the floor of the Kremlin.  Meanwhile SecState Kerry is being dispatched to Kiev to offer the new Ukrainian government nothing that will save their sovereignty according to the 1994 agreement with Russia and the US.  This visit will heighten the peals of laughter in Moscow and the tears in Brussels where the EU is having trouble getting its act together in a civilized but now leaderless world.

Putin's plan to re-establish Soviet style hegemony over its 'near abroad' is going full throttle forward.  Every one of its bordering countries has sizeable Russian minorities as their cancerous relics from the collapse of the USSR.  And Putin will use the age-old excuse of sending in a dominant military to 'protect the lives and property' of his ethnic rump populations whenever the situation is sufficiently soft to guarantee exercising that as a no/low cost option.

The Baltics are quivering in their snowboots right now.  All of them have sizeable Russian minorities (e.g. Estonia's 1.3M people include 300,000 Russians) who will march to any order from Moscow, and thereby create situations of any flavor or magnitude to warrant Russia's military intervention.  That all these countries are members of NATO is worth about the same warm bucket of spit that they enjoyed in 1939 with the mutual defense agreement the Baltics then had with Great Britain.

In the meantime, under Obama’s leadership we are beating our swords into food stamps.  Please take time to review your ‘Duck and Cover’ drills.

[4mar14 update]  George Friedman’s The Next 100 Years was prophetic.  Stratfor is now reprising summaries from that 2009 book (here).  I wrote a major post on it at the time (here) that covered not only Russia’s aims, but also Mexico’s.  Viewed in that light, the strategically silly reset button with which Hillary embarrassed herself in front of Lavrov and the world takes on new meaning as it made a global declaration that the United States had installed a foreign policy naïf in the White House.  The years that followed have more than confirmed that early assessment, and every day brings in fresh news on how a trained KGB thug from a second world country runs circles around our Chief Community Organizer and the intellectual dwarves that surround him.

Comments

[Bill Tozer]

As food stamp participants rise, military expenditures are slashed. My Air Force buddy told me last week that they are slashing 15,000 Air Force personnel in this region and they are broke. He is a lead mechanic for the planes. "Broke!" he added for extra emphases. Guess that is what Queen Nancy meant by Pay Go.

We (this current administration) is no longer leading from behind. We are not even in the running and like tomatoes, trying to Ketchup. Putin is running circles around our State Department, circles from Syria to Iran to The Ukraine, aka, little brother. Sure there are areas in The Ukraine where Russian is spoke exclusively and you won't hear a word of Ukrainian spoken in public or private. Heck, we can't even defend Poland without Putin's approval. That will never happen. He sure outfoxed the UN concerning Syria's gastardly weapons.

Guess Nobel Peace Prize winners are not known for their forceful diplomat skills on the international stage. Well, Arafat was quite the politician fooling fellow Nobel Peace Prize Winner Jimmy Carter and Company. After Syria, perhaps Putin should receive the Nobel Peace Prize. Nah, I don't want to jinx him.

Meanwhile, North Korea fired off two missiles. Guess they too are saying, "Hey Obama, grip this."

Here is a World War 2 story concerning the Russians, a people I know a wee bit about:

It was the closing days of the war in Berlin. The Allied Forces and the Russians from the East arrived at the same spot. There were some German soldiers holding up in a house. A Russian asked the American and British soldiers what was the hang up as they were not on the attack. The Allied soldiers (one carrying a flame thrower) replied that there were women and children in the building along with German soldiers.

The Russian soldier grabbed the flame thrower from the soldier's arms, pushed him aside and burned everybody inside. Don't think there is anything in Obama's background to prepare him for dealing with the Russians.

Just look at Georgia. Some Georgian ragheads bombed a theater in Moscow full of civilians. Putin sent tanks to a hill over their village and opened fire relentlessly on the town. Diplomacy? They don't need no stinkin' diplomacy. Guess we could have boycotted the Winter Olympics, but that would have been premature and might have offended our comrades to the East. "Timing is everything" the saying goes, but since the US currently has a limp dick as well as being impotent, timing don't matter.

[Bill Tozer]

Finally, when things are looking down, I get a dose of good ole Republican optimism. I needed that this cloudy morning:

http://www.foxnews.com/opinion/2014/02/28/ukraine-syria-iran-america-isnt-leading-from-behind-it-being-left-behind/?intcmp=trending

[Russ Steele]

During the 2012 campaign Mitt Romney was mocked by President Obama and his cheerleaders for highlighting the Russian threat to American interests. Romney said that that Obama wasn’t ready or willing to stand up to Russia’s leader. Now we know that he was right.

In 2008, then vice presidential candidate, Sarah Palin warned of Russian troops invading the Ukraine.

In October 2008, after Russia’s invasion of neighboring Georgia emerged as a foreign policy flashpoint in the homestretch of a heated campaign, Palin told an audience in Nevada, “After the Russian army invaded the nation of Georgia, Senator Obama’s reaction was one of indecision and moral equivalence, the kind of response that would only encourage Russia’s Putin to invade Ukraine next.”

Her prediction was derided by Foreign Policy magazine as “strange” and “extremely far-fetched,” . . . Well not as far-fetched as it appears.

H/T to the Legal Insurrection

[Russ Steele]

During this crisis, I encourage readers to check out posts by the Diplomad. His insight into State Department operations, strengths and weaknesses make for some interesting reading, especially with the current crisis in the news.

Without a doubt President Obama and John "Xmas in Cambodia" Kerry have fallen into yet another trap put out by the wily Putin-Lavrov hunting pair. Kerry's announced trip to Kiev, for example, is a classic scramble by a misadministration with no idea of what to do. I am willing to bet that Kerry's visit, far from being a demonstration of support for Ukrainian sovereignty, will be a Chamberlain-to-the-Czechs message of "don't increase tensions by resisting aggression." I am almost certain Kerry will advise Ukraine to roll over, and accept the loss of Crimea in exchange, maybe, for some vague promise from the West to help preserve the remainder of Czechoslovakia Ukraine. Kerry's visit certainly will do nothing to dissuade Moscow as Putin and Lavrov have taken measure of their "adversaries" and found them wanting.

Our "leaders" are simply not to be taken seriously on critical foreign policy issues. They have no overall strategic aim for our foreign policy; no clear idea where they want us to be in three, four, five years; simply put they don't really care about foreign policy. They react to crises with bland words, and by wishing them away into the cornfield with the help of the compliant media. Whatever happened to the urgency of the Syrian crisis?

More on Climbing out of the Obama Foreign Policy Hole is HERE.

[Russ Steele]

This Is The Gas Pipeline Map That Shows Why The Crisis In Ukraine Affects All Of Europe -- HERE

All of Europe will be wishing they did not listen to the environmental wackos that were blocking "fracking." EU nations could be in a much more powerful political position if they are not dependent on Russian gas for heat and energy.

[Brad Croul]

If you search wiki for Black Sea Fleet you will find that, with respect to Crimea and Russian military bases there, Ukraine and Russia have had issues for years.
It is not an Obama problem.
It is a Russia/Ukraine problem.
Do you not think that the US would move troops to protect military bases we have in foreign countries in the event that the host country government was toppled and we were not sure of the emerging (possibly unstable) government's intentions?

[fish]

It is not an Obama problem.

Don't disagree at all Brad. I'm a little concerned that Mr. Wonderful will issue another "Red Line" ultimatum that he can't enforce. Bad enough to be impotent....worse still to drop your drawers and let the world know.

[Todd Juvinall]

No worries, Obama has disintegrated American power and foreign policy. Putin will do whatever he wants. Let Europe deal with him anyway now.

[stevenfrisch]

Ah, I read way too much military history....just finished Armor and Blood on the battle of Kursk pocket and last year a history of the Crimean War...ironic....

OK so I went to Diplomad and read the March,3 2014 posting, and what I find is the statement that essentially it does not matter what the United States does in the Ukraine per se, the answer lies in adopting the philosophy of a strong military and free market capitalism at home, which in the end will save the day. Not real helpful in a Realpolitik sense.

I am sure we would have been better off had we adopted the Bush foreign policy of looking into Putin's eyes and trusting him, until he invaded Georgia, and then acknowledging the misjudgment?

For either Goerge W. Bush or Barack Obama to not have seen Putin for the thug, aggressor and anti-democratic force that he is, or to have believed that the former Soviet Union would give up either its imperial ambition or long held desire for buffer states (little brothers) from western Europe, is and was folly.

For Russia losing Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania to NATO was one thing, they have little strategic importance, but losing Ukraine and Belarus would be quite another; they strike at the heart of Russian insecurity and fears born of 2 collapsed governments and twin invasions from the west in the 20th century. The only thing they may fear more today is a crumbling of their southern provinces and pressure from Islamic fundamentalism.

To think that Russia would give up access to Sevastopol, the main home to their Black Sea fleet which they lease from Ukraine under new agreements until 2047, located within the autonomous state of Crimea (the only one of Ukraine's states to be autonomous), or give up its more than 200 years of imperial ambition to be able to project power to the Mediterranean was equally near sighted. Amongst other things the Black Sea fleet is a valuable asset for the Russians resisting separatist movements in the increasingly Islamic leaning Caucasus region, which they perceive as a threat to the entire southern flank of the Russian state.

Right now there really is not a lot we can do about the Ukraine but that does not mean that we should not try, and stand with the Ukrainian nationalists and the new government that chooses to align with the west.

But the ultimate folly would be escalating the situation more than Putin is already escalating it and precipitating a Russian invasion of the eastern Ukraine. If that happens the Ukrainians will again be a subjugated people.

Situations like this one need time to play out, time for cooler heads to look at all of the options, time for a serious consideration of the diplomatic, economic and military pressures that can be put on the foe, and a consistent steady leadership increasing the pressure. Situations like this also require allies, because that is a force multiplier on the diplomatic and economic front, and ultimately because the US does not possess the ability to realistically project military force into the region without support.

What really concerns me is how quickly the Lindsey Graham's and John McCain's of the world would have us rush to projecting military force without clearly understanding our options or limitations.

This has been a fast moving crises to date, but our first goal should be to slow the entire process down.

The cold war mentality exhibited by George above, coupled with his animosity toward the Russians born of personal experience (or the McCain's and Graham's) is exactly the type of thinking that is the danger here, because it guarantees that we act out an emotional response.

There are a wide variety of diplomatic and economic measures and pressure points that we could apply, including not just approbation from the United States, but lining up our allies in western Europe to do the same, including: pulling out of the Sochi G-8 meetings; kicking Russia out of the G-8: economic sanctions; gradually cutting off western purchases of Russian fossil fuels which they sorely need for hard cash; ramping up pressure on Russian oligarchs and companies that bank in the west and freezing funds like we did against Al Queda.

All of these measures require ALLIES.....which if we move too precipitously will be in short supply.

On the military side, the US has a fleet exercise in the Black Sea next week; we could increase staffing at NATO bases in the Baltic republics, particularly air assets; we could increase rapid deployment forces based in Turkey and Germany; and we could gradually supply the new government in the Ukraine with technology, arms and training to increase the cost of a Russian invasion.

But the reality is as it stands now a rapidly modernizing Russian military would make mincemeat of Ukraine's 130,000 largely infantry forces. Russia could take Ukraine in days and there would be nothing we could do to project force.

As much as sanctioning Russia, the EU and the US must make clear that they will back the new Ukrainian government with money, political support, and military hardware if necessary, but that they will also respect Russian national security interests.

By the way, if Ukraine had been a member of NATO today we would have been obligated by treaty to protect Ukraine with military force.

Sarajevo anyone?

Not smart to repeat the mistakes of our fathers.

[Walt]

It seems every time "O" issues an ultimatum, from N.Korea to Syria, those "leaders" give "O" the finger and laugh in his face.
And at the same time, "O" and Co. want to slash our military to pre WWII levels.
Now that makes PERFICT Progressive sense.
This is what happens when you make threats in the past, you don't back up.
Let's have another "red line" drawn in sand in a stiff breeze.

[Bill Tozer]

I am glad we did not do a foray into Syria. And yes, not much can be done about Russia's treatment of its neighbors. What, are we going to have NATO lead the charge again. And what is up with the North Korean submarine cruising our coast line?

Back to Syria. What a friggin mess. You have Al Qaeda fighting along side with the rebels we support and every rag head in the region is jumping into the fray. Even Iran has sent its Revolutionary Guard into Syria and weapons are coming down through Lebanon from Hamas. I say let them slaughter each other and then let Allah sort them out.

Syria is a puppet of Iran and Iran's largest trading partner is Russia. The only good thing about our foreign policy under Obama is that crazy Qaddafi got corn holed to death by angry members of the insurgency. A fitting end to our friend who was making nice with us until the end.

[fish]

Wow Steve....agreement....?

Someone note the date and time for posterity.

My only quibble is that cutting off the sales of Russian oil is problematic at best....someone will always be interested in buying.

[George Rebane]

Have no idea what "cold war mentality" of mine SteveF was referring to in his commendable 941am. (Must have been another one of those 'but I know what he was REALLY thinking' insights.) It is a tautology that we have no military options to thwart Russia's invasion of the Ukraine, only economic and financial ones remain which are nevertheless significant. I was glad to see the 3mar14 WSJ echo and expand the abbreviated thesis of this post.

But it is a bit humorous that liberals continue to blame Bush2 for Obama's imitation of the Petain-Chamberlain foreign policy tragedy leading up to WW2.

[stevenfrisch]

Fish---agreed there will likely be a market, but getting both crude (which is at $112 per barrel today in western Europe) and natural gas to other users is going to be difficult and expensive.

This from Reuters (parenthetical comments mine) :

RUSSIAN GAS

The stand-off in Crimea raised concerns over disruptions of
Russian natural gas supplies to Europe, which would see a rise
in demand for alternative fuels such as heating oil. The
European Union gets roughly a quarter of its gas supply from
Russia, about half of which is piped through Ukraine.

(At 25% of supply and going into spring and summer Europe could hurt Russia quite a bit)

A relatively mild winter in Europe has reduced demand for
heating fuel, with storage about 20 percent above last year's
level at the main European gas hubs.

Russia exports around 5.5 million barrels of crude oil per
day. Piped gas exports beyond the former Soviet Union totaled
15.8 billion cubic meters in January, official data showed. (75% of that crude goes to western Europe and could be taken up by middle eastern sources, forcing the Russians to sell more than their current 15% of their crude to China and Japan--unless we could get the Japanese to participate-- which they don't have the infrastructure or shipping fleet set up to do. Once again, could hurt them quite a bit for the year or two it would take to ramp asian supply)

The tensions in Ukraine come at a nervous time for markets
as factory activity in China fell to a seven-month low, the
Markit/HSBC manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI)
survey showed Monday.

(Assuming that is that China has the market for more expensive Russian crude, I don;t think the Chinese would be jumping to help the Russians)

We have tools, that if we keep our cool and gradually ramp up could put one hell of a bite on Russia.

[stevenfrisch]

I guess what I was referring to George is what I read as implied in your comments, that projection of military force is the only or the best way to exhibit power.

The following paragraph implies to me that you fail to see the value in these actions, instead of seeing them as an opening part of a ramping up and a containment strategy.

"Our response at this point has been worse than silence. We have threatened to pull out of a planning meeting for the G-8 conference scheduled later this year in Sochi (no need to read this again, it’s true). Putin and his foreign minister Lavrov are rolling in laughter on the floor of the Kremlin. Meanwhile SecState Kerry is being dispatched to Kiev to offer the new Ukrainian government nothing that will save their sovereignty according to the 1994 agreement with Russia and the US. This visit will heighten the peals of laughter in Moscow and the tears in Brussels where the EU is having trouble getting its act together in a civilized but now leaderless world."

That coupled with the final comment that we are busy beating our swords into food stamps makes me think you would prefer a stronger military response.

Please dispel my assumptions that is what the conversation should be about.

I DO AGREE WITH YOU that we cannot allow this intervention by Russia in the Ukraine to stand (although I suspect that at then end of the day Russia now owns the Crimea because they will not act against their interests in the Caucasus and Black Sea).

The issue is how do we do it without a repeat of the sad and destructive history of total war in eastern Europe.

[fish]

I don;t think the Chinese would be jumping to help the Russians

Not jumping......but

http://news.sky.com/story/1219922/russia-and-china-in-agreement-over-ukraine

[Joe Koyote]

The solution is WW III, just swap food stamps for guns. Just take all those people who need food stamps, force them into the army in exchange for food and invade Russia, or Syria. or Iran, or Colorado. We have to stand up to those thugs by having old white men who are still mired in the cold war, send our youth off, once again, to die in far off places for no real reason other than 19th century ideas and ideology. It will solve multiple problems at once: by killing off hungry people it will lessen the demand for social services like food stamps or unemployment benefits, increase military spending, and boost the stock market. These are all pluses. Since America already spends more that most of the rest of the world combined on the military, we need to expand that spending. The demise of the Soviet block was because too much of their capital was spend on defense and not enough on the people. The people finally got fed up and demanded change. It is only smart for us to do the same thing as it will hasten the demise of America. We all know that the only thing that works is massive expenditures of munitions and flesh.

[George Rebane]

SteveF 1038am - You did misunderstand my post, perhaps confusing my longstanding belief that diplomacy succeeds in keeping the peace only to the extent that the existential alternatives are more costly to at least one side, the ultimate being an expensive and uncertain war. Or more directly, diplomacy with nothing to back it up is understood by all to be a hollow echo chamber used to gain time to solidify one's original plans and preparations. I'm reminded of Pope Pius' attempts to thwart WW2 in its early months through papal diplomacy. Stalin's response was 'How many divisions does the pope have?'

I strongly believe that world peace will continue to depend on America remaining the white hat hegemon with a demonstrated military capability that is unsurpassed, and a foreign policy that makes credible the use of that military to protect America's national interests. When that is no longer the case, then a new age of global wars and wholesale miseries will follow on a scale unknown in human history. If we cannot afford both 'guns and butter', then butter must be sacrificed. For without guns we will not have butter.

[fish]

The solution is WW III, just swap food stamps for guns. Just take all those people who need food stamps, force them into the army in exchange for food and invade Russia, or Syria. or Iran, or Colorado. We have to stand up to those thugs by having old white men who are still mired in the cold war, send our youth off, once again, to die in far off places for no real reason other than 19th century ideas and ideology. It will solve multiple problems at once: by killing off hungry people it will lessen the demand for social services like food stamps or unemployment benefits, increase military spending, and boost the stock market. These are all pluses. Since America already spends more that most of the rest of the world combined on the military, we need to expand that spending. The demise of the Soviet block was because too much of their capital was spend on defense and not enough on the people. The people finally got fed up and demanded change. It is only smart for us to do the same thing as it will hasten the demise of America. We all know that the only thing that works is massive expenditures of munitions and flesh.

After yesterdays l' Affaire Pelline your old school crazy is a refreshing palate cleanser.....God Bless you!

[Todd Juvinall]

JoeK for President! LOL!

[Walt]

Joe forgets one thing. When it comes down to it, those with guns can feed themselves. No need for food stamps.
Joe would be out to hang and take from the "preppers". ( they were too smart for their own good.) Yes, more taking from the "haves" to payoff the "have nots".

[Joe Koyote]

When it comes down to it, those with guns can feed themselves. No need for food stamps. "-- Are the well armed going to hunt for food or just take food from the unarmed or meagerly armed?

[Walt]

Something to think about there Joe,, Contemplate that.
How far down the Progressive crapper do we have to go to get to your "question"?
We haven't forgotten about that "private army" "O" mentioned. Roving squads of
anti "hoarder" officials?
Too bad your gun grabbing friends didn't pull off shredding the 2ND. It would make things so much easier.

We are witnessing that " flexibility" Dear Leader was caught telling Putin.
" Do what you want Putin,, I'll just say a few strong speech's,, bad mouth you in public,, but rest assured your good to go with whatever you care to do. Need to take back a country our two? Have at it. I got the people over here buying anything I say.. Heck! I can do whatever I want."

[Russ Steele]

Fracking, Fracking More Fracking and XL Pipeline Now!!

The real response to Russian actions is to drive down the price of oil and gas. At $80.00 a barrel for oil the Russians cannot compete, they would be on their economic knees, and not have money to sustain their military expansion. If the US would accelerate “Fracking" and rapidly approve the XL-Pipeline the price of oil would drop by 20%. It is currently at $110 a barrel in Europe.

We could crank up the economic squeeze some more by helping the European counties with shale deposits to get their Fracking programs underway, dropping the demand for Russian natural gas in Europe. Removing some of their leverage.

There are solutions that will not require a single shot be fired, but it does required some strategic leadership which we are currently lacking.

[Gregory]

Russ 1:13PM

The current administration now knows what it feels like to be a Christian Scientist... with appendicitis.

The Keystone XL Pipeline? Oh, noooo.....

[Walt]

"O" has shown himself to be nutless with his "warnings" to every situation that has arisen. We know how he deals with "red line" situations. ( Nuttin')
Every time he has said " don't you dare",, They say " Really?? Well watch THIS! ( then a gas attack within hours) "O" tucked his tail and ran. Then Putin rides in to save they day. At least with the poison gas. So.. Just what's happening in LIBya? He helped start that war. What gives?
Now all the other counties that hate our guts will declare open season on the U.S., because they know that there is a good chance "O" and Co. won't do jack about it.
N. Korea may be next up to bat again. We got off lucky the last time. ( if anyone was paying attention)

[Walt]

GOD BLESS video tape.
I just watched a clip on Glenn Beck's show of Sara Palin in oct. 2008, basically foretelling this invasion by Putin. Ya' gotta hate it when she turns out to be right.(again)

[Bill Tozer]

https://www.facebook.com/beingconservative/photos/pb.134193140910.-2207520000.1393906048./10151961834370911/?type=3&theater

[Walt]

Was it something I said?? (lol) The Left contingent run out of excuses for Dear Leader?
Meanwhile, back in D.C. where "O" has his political nuts in the wringer, The Mrs. is soon off to China for,, "vacation"... ( on the taxpayer dime of course.)
I think the real excursion is so she can shop for housing when they flee the U.S. when the treason charges come down.

[Gary Smith]

George:
This is not our backyard, it is Russia's and Europe's. Let them handle it. If we had a beef with Mexico and we flexed our muscles we would not be happy with Russia sticking it nose in there. We need to stop being the world's 911 force.

[Walt]

Like it or not Mr. Smith, the U.S. has been the keeper of peace ( for lack of a better word at the moment)in the world since we won WWII.
Like it or not, the world looks to us. ( at least in the past)
For a long time we did a pretty good job of that. Now that the U.S. has faltered
with the "speak softly and carry a big stick" approach , the thugs and goons of the world have grown a "pair" and are coming out of the woodwork to take what they can get. The current (uh) administration has shown itself as weak and cowardly, and we are witnessing the exploitation of said weakness. It's going to get a lot worse before it get's better I fear.

[George Rebane]

GaryS 1216pm - thanks for bringing up that school of thought. You clearly have a geo-strategic view of the world that partitions it into sandboxes which cannot spill over the boundaries that you (or others?) may have set up. It's sorta like the attitude we had when Hitler and Stalin were swallowing up neighbors in the 1930s. I suppose your strategy could be to wait for WW3 to start, and then we'll take a look/see and decide what we should do.

Or perhaps you have in mind a more anticipative intervention we should consider that occurs after the Ukraine dust settles but before WW3 starts. Please share your thoughts.

[Gary Smith]

I would like to see the country's that have the most interest in the outcome be the biggest players. I think Europe should have the lead. If you read the Russian and American news we seem to be the biggest player, maybe I am wrong on this. If it keeps escalating and gets larger than maybe we should chime in. I don't think our Sec. of State should be doing shuttle diplomacy at this point. Walt you are right and I don't like it. I would like to see us carry a medium stick and not speak unless necessary. Yes I am in the minority. Thanks

[Bill Tozer]

I can see Mr. Smith's point. No, we are not going send the might of the US Military into the former Soviet Union bloc. Russia does indeed have a strategic interest in their own backyard as Mr. Smith points out. However, there is one small bit of information that we should not dismiss. We got Ukraine to dismantle their nukes (deterrent against Russian aggression and gut their military solely based on a promise by a former Democrat President and The Brits, N. Ireland (Northern Ireland???), the French and some other swinging dicks. Their word was written into a thing called a Treaty. No wonder George Washington warned us about signing treaties for the long haul. I suppose a good lawyer could argue it all depends on what the definition of "is" is.

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2570335/Former-British-Ambassador-Moscow-warns-Russia-invaded-Ukraine-difficult-avoid-going-war.html

[Joe Koyote]

How easy it is for old men to talk of sending mostly other people's children off to war. Based on what, a dislike of some far off country's politics and a fear that somehow someway it will have a direct effect on you personally, other than the price of gasoline that is?

[Bill Tozer]

Ok, not a real Treaty passed by Congress, but we gave them our word. But, a lot of people have gave their word "until death do us part" and have broken it.

Does this man look like he is joking??

https://scontent-b.xx.fbcdn.net/hphotos-prn2/t1/1959581_10151963972510911_454880880_n.jpg

[Todd Juvinall]

JoeK, is the 40 something JFK one of those old men? Vietnam was his baby I heard.

[Bill Tozer]

Mr. Koyote. Don't think we are sending our boyz and girls off to war in Eastern Europe. Not enough time. Russia has their fleet, subs, and military hardware right there. They can own the airspace in 20 hours if they choose. Our boys will get overrun and bombed 24/7. We don't have any advantage.

Russia needs a few days for their build up. They have the airports, airspace, and could flood the area with a few hundred thousand troops in days. It took us months and months of constant flying in troops and hardware just to free Kuwait. And we were safely out in the desert. No way of doing that now. There is not enough time. Airstrikes won't cut it. It is a huge area we are talking about. We could let loose our troops stationed in Germany but that will leave Western Europe unprotected in a counter attack or diversionary tactic by the Kremlin.

Just this morning Holland, the Danes, Finnish, Swedes, and French signed the surrender papers. The Swiss vowed to fight to the end up, as long as it is in the Alps. Norway is feeling cocky after all their Gold Medals at the Winter Olympics and is ready to send 14 military personnel on skis and snow shoes to free Kiev.

Darn, why couldn't Putin wait until the weather was warmer? Maybe we can borrow some warm fatigues from the former East Germany at their Army Navy Surplus stores.

[Walt]

Since "O" and Co. took over, global stability has had the wheels fall off.
The entire Middle East sand box is aflame, and as we speak Israel is getting
tossed under the bus by Obummer. With friends like him who needs the Palestinians or Iranians?
Right here at home the same clan are pissing off our neighbors to the North.
"Nope,, your oil is no good here, nor can you ship it by pipeline. Just one train load at a time. ( never mind Warren Buffett's trains fell off the tracks
four times, in as many months)

About the only continent that that we haven't "dissed" is Australia. Give "O" time on that. he still has some left.

[Joe Koyote]

Todd -- It was actually Truman who first sent military personnel to VietNam in 1950 to aid the French. In 1955, after Dien Ben Phu and the partition, Eisenhower sent additional military personnel to aid in the formation of the So. VietNamese defense forces. Five years later when So. VietNam refused to abide by the partition agreement and hold reunification elections, the civil war began. At this time the South asked for military field advisors and Kennedy complied. There already was an American military presence and implied obligation in So. VietNam for ten years when Kennedy took office. In fact Kennedy was said to have been reconsidering American involvement when he was assassinated. The first major escalation came soon after his death, after the now questionable Gulf of Tonkin affair, when Johnson began sending in ground troops instead of only "advisors."
So what lame point were you trying to make anyway: that it is not always "old men" who send soldiers into harms way? Does it even matter who does the sending? Besides, had you read my two sentences more carefully you might have noticed that what I wrote was, "How easy it is for old men to talk of sending mostly other people's children off to war. " I was talking about old men on blogs rattling sabers not Presidents rattling sabers or using them.

[Walt]

One diff. Joe, is that there is no draft today, unlike "back then."
The brave men and women who volunteer today know full well what they are signing up for. Except for those few that join for the "education" benefits, or other ulterior motives. ( like the one who publicly posted her "ditching" 4:00 TAPS.)

This nation has men and women that are more than willing to go anywhere where the "bad guys" are at just so we here at home are not fighting or fearing those same "bad guys" in our own streets and front yards. Where would you choose to fight?
This time around "they" started it on good ol' 9/11.
Then we tracked them down, no matter where they were. " If you harbor terrorists, we will come in after them".. And pretty much, we stuck to that. Even asking permission to do so in some cases.

Things really went sour for us when arm chair "warrior" politicians began rewriting the rules of engagement to the point where troops on the ground needed a JAG officer's OK to pull the trigger. ( all by piss poor radio communication)

The enemy of today hides behind women and children. They do not wear uniforms.
Funny how when the smoke clears, these enemy fighters get counted as civilian casualties against us.

That reminds me. Wasn't it bleeding heart Hollywood Leftists who managed to drag us into the " Blackhawk down" fiasco? " For the children" ya' know...
We know... Their best intentions were there... ( nope,, that's not going to cut it.)

[stevenfrisch]

Posted by: Joe Koyote | 04 March 2014 at 03:21 PM

Oh come on Joe, don't you know history is just a sound bite to be cherry picked and used for partisan political purposes 40 years later?

We can't expect people to actually read FitzGerald's Fire In The Lake, or Karnow's Vietnam: A History, or Paul Vann's Bright And Shining Lie........or listen to the men who were there can we?

[Walt]

Now back to the subject at hand,, the fun and follies of the admin.
Hear about Lois Learner? " She" claims her life is in danger if she talks.
Claims of threats,the whole ball of wax.
Now there could be no truth of that what so ever. These are law abiding Libs we are talking about here. Can't point the finger at the Tea Party,, they want her to spill it for all to hear.
Maybe we should look at the accusation another way. "O" stated "there isn't a smidgen of corruption. etc,etc,etc..."
So who may be telling the truth?

Then again, it could be her getting cold feet, and trying to weasel out with the best excuse she could find.

[Bill Tozer]

Mr. Walt. Concerning the IRS Scandal...yes, it is indeed a scandal, here is a opinion for one of the targeted. Like him or not, this man has a good story to tell. And he is not even a Tea Party person as far as I can tell:

http://www.foxnews.com/opinion/2014/03/04/is-this-irs-scandal-smoking-gun/?intcmp=trending

Now back to the KGB and Mother Russia. Politically, Putin is back on top. One thing the Russians love is a strong man. Putin is taking on that role perfectly. Peter The Great and now V.Putin the Great. Opps, I forgot Ivan the Terrible.

Mr. Steele is correct once again. Our only real weapon is for us to frack, frack, frack and flood the world with cheap natural gas. Once again Russia will fall under its own weight if Europe buys our gas. Western Europe simply cannot afford or rely on their green energy to sustain their economies. Less is not more. We can be the world's #1 exporter of gas and oil by 2020 if we had the political will, which looks more like a fading pipe dream with each passing month.

Putin is now the most recognized person on Earth. Obama has slipped to number two. I posted this once, but the timing is worth posting it again.

https://fbcdn-sphotos-c-a.akamaihd.net/hphotos-ak-ash3/t1/q71/s720x720/1235342_10151640325045911_163150353_n.jpg

[Joe Koyote]

Our only real weapon is for us to frack, frack, frack and flood the world with cheap natural gas. " God help us. This route is based upon one major assumption that has yet to be proven beyond a reasonable doubt; that fracking is safe. One of the major proposed fracking sites is the San Joaquin Valley, sometimes known as the breadbasket of the world. Polluting the groundwater of one of the world's richest agricultural regions to quell some cock-a-doodle-do rooster strutting his feathers won't accomplish much in the long term other than further enrich the oil companies. And yes, I am aware of all the industry funded studies that say fracking is harmless. It is like the fox telling the farmer not to worry about the chickens, he'll guard them.

[George Rebane]

JoeK 1150am - are you aware of any funded studies that are 'agenda-less'? Your comments over the years sound as if there are some yet-to-be-identified credible sources that are not grounded on some socio-economic agenda or other. Pray, reveal these sources and how much credence should we put in them so that we all may take equal comfort in their output products.

[Walt]

Uh,,, Joe,,,, seems "our bread basket of the world" needs to be said in the "past tense". The Progressive "water Nazis" have cut off the water to grow those crops.
Never mind the ECO gang (yourself included) has yet to prove any claim of "DANGER".
Even Dear Leader's "all knowing " EPA has failed to do so. But Ca.'s " waterboard"
is somehow more knowledgeable? LOL!!
Don't bother with throwing fear of "man made earthquakes" out there. They don't seem to bother the ECO gang in Calistoga at the geothermal farm there. A look at the USGS earthquake page would do you wonders.

Those vary farmers may want those gas wells. They would make more money from a one acre well site than they ever did with 100 planted acres.( if not more)

What REALLY sucks is Dear ol' Dad sold his orchard property in that aria just after I was born. DAMN!!

[Paul Emery]

Joe

Just a clarification about fracking in California. Most of the time it's done for the extraction of oil not natural gas.

"Fracking is usually used to mine natural gas, but it's not natural gas companies here in California are after, it's oil."

http://www.nbcbayarea.com/investigations/What-the-Frack-Controversial-Drilling-Happening-Here-in-California-140956263.html

[Walt]

Either way Paul, NO proof, NO facts, that the practice is harmful.
Ya, the fear mongering worked for a spell. Then the lies were shown for what
they were.

[Paul Emery]

George

What would you consider to be a credible source on the fracking question?

[George Rebane]

PaulE 518pm - Let me get back to you on that after someone from the Left answers my 1230pm. This answering questions with a question is getting old.

[Walt]

It's gotta be rough to be on the Left side of things around here. It's not been lookin' pretty for a while, and yet get's worse by the day. " Fearless Leader" ( of Rocky and Bullwinkle fame at this point) just doesn't have a clue what to do.
Scratch that.. He's changing the healthcare rules again... Yup, NOW you can keep yur insurance plan,, now he can say he kept that promise. Happy days for LIBS in Nov.

See the proposed budget? Hear Boxer? Nope,, not a cut to be had. You can bet your bottom dollar, EVERY dollar of that Trillian dollar ceiling hike has been spent.
Let's just tax the rich some more to cover it.

[Russ Steele]

EPA’s Abandoned Wyoming Fracking Study One Retreat of Many

Industry advocates say the EPA’s turnabout reflects an overdue recognition that it had over-reached on fracking and that its science was critically flawed.

But environmentalists see an agency that is systematically disengaging from any research that could be perceived as questioning the safety of fracking or oil drilling, even as President Obama lays out a plan to combat climate change that rests heavily on the use of natural gas.

Over the past 15 months, they point out, the EPA has:

• Closed an investigation into groundwater pollution in Dimock, Pa., saying the level of contamination was below federal safety triggers.
• Abandoned its claim that a driller in Parker County, Texas, was responsible for methane gas bubbling up in residents’ faucets, even though a geologist hired by the agency confirmed this finding.
• Sharply revised downward a 2010 estimate showing that leaking gas from wells and pipelines was contributing to climate change, crediting better pollution controls by the drilling industry even as other reports indicate the leaks may be larger than previously thought.
• Failed to enforce a statutory ban on using diesel fuel in fracking.

More on the EPA over reach HERE.

Now the EPA is doing a long range study, with the result coming out in 2016, at the end of the Obama administration. All their previous studies were based on weak and unverifiable science, and were discredited by close examination of the facts. Perhaps this long study will hold up, but in congressional testimonies, the head of the EPA could not cite one incidence of ground water contamination from the fracking process.

[Todd Juvinall]

I have found no scientific evidence that fracking causies earthquakes. It is a allegation by the ANTI fracking just like the supposed "fire" coming from a faucet. Oil and gas are the products produced and in California we have the untapped Monterrey Shale formation that rivals Saudi Arabia in energy potential. The oil companies have used fracking offshore for fifty years without incident.

[Joe Koyote]

Paul 12:58 - I am from and still have friends in Fresno and they tell me it's the gas the frackers are after now. Another issue is water. Large corporations are buying up land with water rights.. not for farming, but to sell to the frackers.

[Walt]

Fresno..... That's says it all.
Well Joe,, Newmont just bought hundreds of acres just outside GV. WAY TOO much
for a simple water treatment facility. Better dig into that conspiracy as well.

Now where is IMM when we need them? ALL that water sitting under GV being unused. (or unsold at this point) IMM would have installed pumps at their expense. Soon it may be us taxpayers footing the bill for job. ( at four times the cost when gov. gets involved)
The billions of gallons just sitting in all those tunnels. The "new gold" is water.
Heck! anyone sitting on top of mine tunnel can drill down and tap that source. Bring on the tanker trucks. ( black market water business.) And no one would be the wiser.

[Walt]

Lets hear more from the "FRACK-tured" fairy tails dept. of Fresno.

[Paul Emery]

George

Here's some information from Scientific American about the dangers of fracking. I assume these numbers are factual.

" A ProPublica review of well records, case histories and government summaries of more than 220,000 well inspections found that structural failures inside injection wells are routine. From late 2007 to late 2010, one well integrity violation was issued for every six deep injection wells examined — more than 17,000 violations nationally. More than 7,000 wells showed signs that their walls were leaking. Records also show wells are frequently operated in violation of safety regulations and under conditions that greatly increase the risk of fluid leakage and the threat of water contamination.

Structurally, a disposal well is the same as an oil or gas well. Tubes of concrete and steel extend anywhere from a few hundred feet to two miles into the earth. At the bottom, the well opens into a natural rock formation. There is no container. Waste simply seeps out, filling tiny spaces left between the grains in the rock like the gaps between stacked marbles..........."

http://www.scientificamerican.com/article/are-fracking-wastewater-wells-poisoning-ground-beneath-our-feeth/

[Gregory]

paul, that is a ProPublica piece by a ProPublica author, taken apart by cato's kopel:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ProPublica#Criticism

SciAm used to be a highly respected science magazine, no more. ProPublica was also given some of those 501c applications that were supposed to be kept secret by the IRS.

[Walt]

Where is that permit for mining Paul? ( Lefty's love to demand permits)
"Mining" the Internet has yet to pay off. Welcome to my world Paul,,LOL

[George Rebane]

PaulE 1143am - Are you offering SciAm as an example of a reliable source? It generates no research results and for some years now has become an unabashed trumpet for progressive causes of all shades and hues, picking and choosing which 'science' to publish. Gregory's 1202pm stands.

What I'm looking for is the names of scientists and/or institutions doing original research that you and yours consider free of a socio-political agenda.

[Gregory]

george, I think the epa's inability to make a solid case despite trying really hard to do so is the most telling evidence that fracking is not as dangerous as ProPublica wants to think.

[Gregory]

"George, What would you consider to be a credible source on the fracking question?

Posted by: Paul Emery | 05 March 2014 at 05:18 PM"

Paul, in the future, how about leaving the gotchas behind? You apparently were sitting on the SciAm article at the time.

[Gregory]

oooh oooh pick me!

Everyone is biased. Arguments to authority are invalid.

[Paul Emery]

Not true Gregory. I was responding to George's ask for examples and it was easy to find.

George

Are you factually challenging the article itself or just the dismissing the messenger?

[Gregory]

paul, i stand corrected. apologies.

am awaiting replacement keyoard, you would not elieve the workarounds i'm doing to write intelligently (?). saturday will see improvement.

[Walt]

Things may get pricey at the pump again.
Remember all those derailments of oil trains? The EPA and DOT have a plan.
Just ban the use of existing oil cars. " Their not safe enough".
Warren Buffett isn't going to be happy with "O" if he has to buy 5000 "new and improved" rail cars.
What do they say about "the squeaky wheel"?
So NO pipeline,, NO rail.. The ECO clan has scheduled an orgy.

[George Rebane]

PaulE 229pm - You have yet to answer my 1230pm. The SciAm piece is a third party report in a non-research publication with an established agenda.

[Walt]

It's going to be a crappy few weeks. Looks like Mom's time here is done. But she made it to 93. ( this final wait is miserable)
The next time you plan to give to charity or a good cause, our local Hospice care. They have helped us greatly.
Life is a precious thing. Enjoy every day, you don't know what the next day brings.

Dealing with the family buzzards is going to be fun...

[Russ Steele]

Paul@2:29PM

Remember our global warming discussions, when the local lefties claimed that only peer reviewed science was valid. Was the ProPublica review of well records, case histories and government summaries peer reviewed? Was the review process scientific, or was the data cherry picked? Were the conclusions based on valid science using consistent and verifiable logic? I do not see any evidence that the study was peer reviewed. Maybe Paul can prove that I am wrong, that the ProPublica study was reviewed by independent third parties before publication.

You can not have it both ways. Was the ProPublica study peer reviewed? If not, how can the left give it any credibility? Oh! Double standards. Something our local lefties are know for.

As for Scientific American. I was a loyal supporter for years, but then they morphed into a left wing propaganda organ, I dropped my subscription. The final straw was when they started promoting AGW, human caused global warming. The evidence was just not there, CO2 was increasing and temperatures were not following the model projections, there was something serious wrong with the science, but America's Premier Science Magazine decided to promote the AGW politics, rather than investigate the science. I did not review my subscription.

[Bill Tozer]

Fracking. Natural gas. Cheap and plentiful supply of energy. Every ubber rich lib who drives around in their Mercedes Buses to go to a fracking protest rally after leaving their 20 million dollar homes with 8 burner stoves has ONE thing in common. They all want energy to be more expensive so we can rely on wind and solar. Easy for them s
to say flying around in private jets while poor people are tar papering the sides of their abodes to stay warm. Poor people on fixed or low incomes seeing their heating bills in winter rise from 300 to 600 dollars a month. Truly a choice between staying warm and eating.

The libs always talk about pollution, feeding the hungry, and helping raise the poverty standard of the poor villagers in Africa and other 3rd World places.

Just consider what could happen to some poor villages who had natural gas supplied to it. Instantly the burning of dung and wood from the forests would disappear. Heating /cooking of food would be clean and sanitary, reducing disease. Water could be easily boiled to purify it and rid water of disease causing bacteria. Less time would be spent on trying to stay warm and more on productive economic activity. Just one village hooked up to natural gas (subsidized by some leftist government) would reduce air pollution, reduce disease, infant mortality, and increase the life expectancy of nameless. Think solar or wind could boil vats of non portable water?

But no!!!! Fracking is bad. Cheap energy is bad. People dying of disease and spending all their time gathering wood and causing deforestation is not considered by the jet set as an option. After all, their 12,000 square foot pads are nice and cozy and they don't think twice about their utility bill. They only care about being seen at the next protest rally. They could give a crap about hungry disease ridden children in far away places or pensioners that indeed have to make the choice between heat and food.

Just for fun, I throw in a picture that might be way off topic:

https://scontent-b.xx.fbcdn.net/hphotos-prn2/t1/p403x403/1798684_10151961885430911_1125127973_n.jpg

[Gregory]

walt, sorry to hear of your family's woe.

[fish]

Walt,

My deepest sympathies on your mothers passing.

fish

[Paul Emery]

Gregory

Since in California it's OK to frack beneath someones property without their consent or knowledge would you feel comfortable if that were to happen beneath your land? Being a property right guy this should send shivers up your back.

http://graphics.thomsonreuters.com/13/10/USA-FRACKING:RIGHTS.pdf

[Russ Steele]

Walt,

Our prayers are with you during this difficult time. My mom passed in 2003, a few days be for Christmas.

Russ and Ellen

[Paul Emery]

Walt

I'm with you in you're family situation. My Dad passed away two weeks ago at the age of 92. Best wishes to you and your family.

[fish]

My Dad passed away two weeks ago at the age of 92.

Sympathies to the Emery family as well.

[Bill Tozer]

Mr. Walt, I am sorry for your loss. My Mom passed two days before Christmas two years ago and my Father pasted last June. I still am expecting a call or nice letter from them anyday day now. Haven't put up a Christmas tree in 2 years. I don't have the words to express my sympathies and lack the words to give you comfort. Hang in there, Big Guy with the big heart. Same for the Emerey Family. Ben sure did look up and admired his Father immensely. Sorry Paul for you loss.

[Walt]

Thanks for the kind words my friends. Like I said, the final wait is the worst.
The good Lord has yet to call her home. How she is hanging on, is anyone's guess.
This is going to be a long weekend.

[Bill Tozer]

Now Central and Eastern Europe are begging us to FRACK! Oh, the house Majority Leader will read the letter and weigh it carefully. The Senate Majority Leader will read the letter and carelessly toss it in the circular file. AP story. Vital to economic activity.

http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2014/03/08/central-european-nations-appeal-to-congress-for-faster-exports-us-natural-gas/