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04 April 2014

Comments

George Rebane

Now here's a crowd that regularly examines the future with blinders tightly strapped over their eyes, and their brains permanently in 'What difference does it make?' mode.
https://www.youtube.com/embed/svGDZOW-brA?rel=0

Paul Emery

George writes

"It turns out that when you ask a lot of people to estimate some outcome, and then aggregate their answers, you wind up with a surprisingly good result."

Sounds like Democracy by popular vote something I thought you were opposed to. Why not then just have mass voting on all major issues and direct our elected officials to enact those results?

Account Deleted

Yep - I'm getting the 'warning' about Typepad.
Paul - you never cease to amaze me. Are you saying you really don't understand the difference between the examples given by George and your example of enacting law by popular vote?
George is talking about facts that are already established and have not been made known to the folks participating or situations in which the outcome or facts will become known. The 'good result' he refers to is the agreement of fact with an average of what was estimated or had been forecast.
In all probability at this stage of our Republic, the average citizen could probably do no worse than the average solon in having an understanding of what they are voting for. The YouTube video in the link above gives ample credence to my opinion. That is not, however, much of an endorsement by me of mob rule.
It is only that congress seems to be populated by a large number of ignorant
and power hungry dolts. We do, indeed, continue to receive (collectively) the govt we deserve.
Paul and others like him have learned nothing from history. Please turn your attentions to the differences between the American and French revolutions if you need instruction on why we should never turn govt over to the masses. It was and will never be a pretty sight.

Bill Tozer

Crowd forecasting has its pros and cons and is usually spot on, albeit timing is everything.

I believe most Americans feel the gravy train coupled with the 16 tons of debt on every man, woman, and child is in their guts exactly opposite what they wish things to be. Neither does the average Joe Q Public desire to see his /her kids with their palms out hoping Uncle Barack drops some coins in their beggars cups, or worse, dropping coins in their palms for no dire reason or neccessity or need at all.. Something about all the free stuff is anti-character building for the future generations in the parents' innermost thoughts. But to speak out is to be branded a bad dude or dudette. Same with the pile of debt reaching from the outhouse to the penthouse, from Yale to jail. The crowd says something is not good about impeding doom and feel that if you are gonna play, you are gonna pay. You can't sow radish seeds and expect pumkins, IMHO.

Sure, the crowd says their children are not dense, its just that the educators fail to recognize genius.

We all have been mistaken from time to time, but the crowd gets it most of the time in predicting stuff, events, and outcomes.
I may not be the smartest fellow, but I don't need to. I just surround myself with smart people. What makes them smart is they are born with intuition and their gut tells them when they smell at rat. In time they identify the rat.

gjr

PaulE 327pm - Sorry about the response delay Paul; the TypePad comment problem had me flummoxed (and pissed).

In the meantime, I had a hard time figuring out whether your 327pm was serious or a joke question without a smiley face. ScottO's 708pm took you seriously and responded properly.

Bill Tozer

The crowd says the Russians ain't going to annex part of Alaska. I will go with the crowd forecasters on this one. First we had the Redcoats coming and now the Reds. But, the crowd is correct as usual.

When those Igloo inhabitants awake and walk across the ice to see their relatives on the Russian side, it drives them Russian police and guards up the wall. Drives them nuts I tell you, absolutely nuts, especially considering them walrus blubber munchers don't speak Russian nor English or give a hoot about borders or countries. Too much fun to give up that part of Alaska, in my not so humble correct opinion. Besides, Russia already has Siberia to exile people to.

Hail to the crowd on this one. Putin is no dummie.
http://www.bloombergview.com/articles/2014-04-04/putin-wouldn-t-dare-take-alaska

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