Scattershots – 9jun14 (updated 10jun14, twice!)

George Rebane

Two sides claiming that 2+2 equals four and five can always find common ground at 4.5 …, which would still be wrong.

Another strong piece of evidence that the ‘consensus science’ behind manmade (anthropogenic) global warming (AGW) continues to be institutionalized fraud is revealed by the National Association of Scholars.  NAS takes no position on global warming per se, nor does it opine on regulatory schemes such as imposed by the EPA.  What the organization does is review the process of how science is done and what academic standards are applied.  In its 6jun14 piece ‘Short-circuiting Peer Review in Climate Science’ the authors disclose the very opaque circle jerk that has been going on among government units like the EPA, NOAA, NASA, … ‘peer reviewing’ each other’s work within a mutually shared political objective and common funding spigot.  The bottom line is that the peer review process, much ballyhooed by climate calamatists, has been and remains broken.  But that continues to be the best that our central planners can do as they grow the regulatory leviathan.  (H/T to Russ Steele for the alert.)

History did not end in 1989 as historian Francis Fukuyama then expounded.  The fall of international communism with USSR’s demise and the economic redirection of Red China did not lead to years of international civility and the inevitable spread of democracy.  Indeed, as far back as 1997 historians William Strauss and Neil Howe published The Fourth Turning, their wrenching vision of what the next historical cycle has in store for America.   Now a quarter century after the fall of the wall, with Islam fighting the west, China building and flexing its military muscle, and Russia expanding its borders, Fukuyama’s thesis needs more than a little dusting off.  The good professor has recently gone through a number of ‘I didn’t say it well enough for you to understand’ exercises, the latest being a significant essay – ‘At the End of History still stands Democracy’ - in the 7jun14 WSJ.

In these pages I have argued that democracy – accepting for the moment that history has an ‘end’ – is not at all the likely rosy terminus for the governance of man.  You can judge the strength of Fukuyama’s arguments yourself, but one thing that more and more people who think about such things will agree with is that in this century the world’s sovereign nation-states will go through some wrenching changes in how they organize and govern their societies.  I have cited multiple works by American socio-political pundits that lay the foundation for such changes – Coming Apart (2012) Charles Murray, Knowledge and Power (2013) George Gilder, Average is Over (2014) Tyler Cowan.

Now we have a major political essay – The Fourth Revolution (2014) – which argues that the next revolutionary change in global governances will be powered by the growth of China and India, and abetted by the self-absorbed softening of the greater debt-ridden west (America, EU, Japan).  The book (reviewed here) is written by John Micklethwait and Adrian Woolridge, respectively the editor-in-chief and managing editor of The Economist, one of the world’s most influential and respected ‘newspapers’ (their term), most certainly one of the few remaining profitable products of periodical print journalism left in this day among the growing legions of uninformed.

Micklethwait and Woolridge make the case that “If the state is not radically reformed and reduced, Western democracy could suffer, and the appeal of more innovative authoritarian regimes, notably in Asia, could increase.”  Don’t be fooled by the inclusion of the hopeful “could”.  I’ll have more to say about this essay in coming days.

[10jun14 update]  To doubly underline the dark side of what I have described that the climate calamatists really want is made clear by leftwing pundit Lucia Graves writing unapologetically in the National Journal.  It is a socialist autocracy with the president exercising "dictatorial powers".  (more here)

[Lucky Strike Extra 10jun14 update]  Apropos the new EPA anti-coal regs that will soon hit the street, Warren Buffett is betting heavily that the energy markets will remain mangled for the indefinite future.  He has invested $15B in renewable energy enterprises that throw off tax credits to protect profits from his other ventures.  Of course, that is just one of the ways that government is mangling this market.  The real cost and profitability of renewable energy will remain a mystery for some time to come since it looks like government crutches for the industry will not come off any time soon, if ever.  Buffett is so confident that he has long lasting state protection that he’s about to put another $15B (of Berkshire-Hathaway money) on the same square knowing exactly where the little ball will land when the wheel stops.

RR has been tracking the militarization of the nation’s police for some time.  Well, boys and girls it is time for the ‘surge’.  Now the military has upped the ante and added grenades, 50 cal machine guns, silencers for pistols, rifles, and submachine guns, night vision systems, … to the catalog of surplus freebies from which your local sheriff and police chief can select what is ‘needed’.  Yes, the cited need is that strapping on such gear will protect the outgunned police and make sure that they can go home at night – now what upstanding citizen would be against that?  The problem is that the police haven’t been outgunned in living memory, and for the last 25 years crime rates (including violent crimes) have been steadily dropping.

Meanwhile the number of SWAT assaults has skyrocketed along with tragic mistakes causing innocent people in their PJs to be shot in the middle of the night.  And the local constables now show military style assault videos to get the young bucks juiced to sign up for a career of making life safer for the rest of us.  (Now why do I and millions across the land not feel any safer?)    Since no one can see a credible threat that requires such hardware and tactics on every main street in the land, some jurisdictions are beginning to get alarmed and push back at their police getting militarily musclebound. And the risk that a cop doesn’t go home at night is much lower than for a dozen other occupations listed by the Bureau of Labor Statistics.  (Here are the ten most dangerous jobs.)  Things have gotten so bad that even the solidly big government, leftwing NYT has published an alarming summary of what is happening with America’s police. (more here) 

Comments

[Walt]

News is out about the shooters in Vegas,, and the LIBS will have a field day
with it. Yup,, even Steve will be "polish'n" wood.
From their hatred of "O" and government,, to showing up at the Bundy standoff.
Real winners to say the least. Looks to me they were out to start some real trouble between radical LIBS and the Tea Party. ( give the news a day or two and see what happens.)
The use of the Gadsden flag they draped over one of the cops they shot, is all the LIBS will need.( never mind the swastika they added to it.)

[Russ Steele]

Will Obama Ever Become a Climate Realist?

Australia and Canada have formed a climate realist alliance to protect jobs while dealing with global warming, the Global Warming Policy Foundation has the details:

The political leaders of Canada and Australia declared on Monday they won’t take any action to battle climate change that harms their national economies and threatens jobs.
Prime Minister Stephen Harper and his Australian counterpart, Tony Abbott, made the statements following a meeting on Parliament Hill.

Abbott, whose Liberal party came to power last fall on a conservative platform, publicly praised Harper for being an “exemplar” of “centre-right leadership” in the world.

Abbott’s government has come under criticism for its plan to cancel Australia’s carbon tax, while Harper has been criticized for failing to introduce regulations to reduce greenhouse gas emissions in Canada’s oil and gas sector.

Later this week, Abbott meets with U.S. President Barack Obama, who has vowed to make global warming a political priority and whose administration is proposing a 30-per-cent reduction of carbon dioxide emissions from power plants by 2030.

At a Monday news conference, Harper and Abbott both said they welcomed Obama’s plan. Abbott said he plans to take similar action, and Harper boasted that Canada is already ahead of the U.S. in imposing controls on the “electricity sector.”

But both leaders stressed that they won’t be pushed into taking steps on climate change they deem unwise.

“It’s not that we don’t seek to deal with climate change,” said Harper. “But we seek to deal with it in a way that will protect and enhance our ability to create jobs and growth. Not destroy jobs and growth in our countries.”

Harper said that no country is going to undertake actions on climate change — “no matter what they say” — that will “deliberately destroy jobs and growth in their country.

This is the exact opposite of what Obama has done. His attack on the coal companies are projected to kill thousands of jobs, and increase energy prices. German companies were looking to bring their energy hungry chemical companies to the US to take advantage of our dropping energy prices, brought about by free market fracking. However the demand for natural gas to replace the coal fired power plants will drive the cost of natural gas much higher. Maybe too high for the German companies seeking lower energy costs. This will result in fewer jobs in the US. Obama’s EPA is deliberately destroying jobs. Being an extremist environmentalist wacko, it is highly unlikely that Obama is going to join the alliance.

[Bill Tozer]

Re: The Fourth Revolution. Very heavy topic. I see the rise of radical Islam as the greatest threat to any and all democracies and this belief of mine goes back to 1977 when the southeast regions of the USSR were being changed by the influx/growth of an Islamic population. I could see back them of the real possibility of the entire aforementioned region splitting away from Moscow or an ensuing ethnic civil war/bloodbath. It did not happen.

Islamic areas versus everybody else. Islam vs non-Islam which is happening in Central Africa as we speak. The followers of Allah verses the infidels. No middle ground. All democracies are the enemy of Islamic core believes, thus the term Holy War should not be dismissed lightly or sweep under the carpet.

Political correctness prevents this real, exploding, expanding threat to western democracies from being openly discussed.

The other threat to any democracy is the role of government in its citizens' lives and plain ole expansion of government. History is full of examples. Just glance briefly from Athens to Rome.

The difference between the American Revolution and the French Revolution was the American Revolution wanted to replace the King with ideals and principles while the French Revolution wanted to replace the King with another ruler. The Arab Spring follows the French Revolution example despite what the man on the street in Cairo or Istanbul says.

True democratic people's republics are in the Jihadists' gun sights. Socialism and democratic republics cannot coexist either. Two pronged attack.

[fish]

True democratic people's republics are in the Jihadists' gun sights. Socialism and democratic republics cannot coexist either. Two pronged attack.

You know I wonder about that Bill. The Europeans and to a lesser degree the US has been fairly conciliatory to Islam….on the home field anyway. The notion of being able to co-opt a faith that has within it directions about how to behave in civil society has to be appealing to the more ardent statists among us. Now you aren't just breaking a law….you're committing a sin too….the double whammy. The "jihadists" also loves the idea of capturing the mechanism of government. I wonder who wins?

There's your civilizational "race to the bottom".

[Bill Tozer]

Breaking a law and committing a sin...My, Mr. Fish, that is the story of my life. You haven't been going down to my mailbox and reading my mail have you? My sins and violations are too numerous for the casual observer to imagine...However, you are not the casual observer. That, sir, is a straight forward compliment.

Guess both Islam and non Islam civilizations follow the "eye for an eye, a tooth for a tooth" theme. Just some cultures take it too darn literally. We don't chop off the hands of thieves here, but food for thought. Our death penalty (when applied) does indeed stop the guilty party from being a repeat offender. And our Supreme Court in the latter part of the 1800's barred castration as a means of punishment. Whatz up with dat? With all that said, the bigger issue is how weakened will democracies become in open societies? The internal threat of "fundamentally transforming America as we know it" is way more likely than "The Redcoats are coming, The Redcoats are coming!!"

[Bill Tozer]

Confession time! Mr. Fish, you lost me on your term "ardent statists". I don't know what that means, thus the confession. So, I looked it up. Seems to me it ranges from government worshipers to totalitarianism to fascism to the the whole is greater/supreme than the sum of the parts (unless your are discussing human anatomy). Did say economic activity is the peaceful exchange between people which I agree, but there I go digressing again. What do you mean by ardent statists? Can you find it here?

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Statism

[George Rebane]

Here's a new book - 'Why Government Fails So Oftern' - that compiles the arguments I have given here for governments' endemic failures. Professor Peter Shuck also recognizes the systemic shortcomings of the leviathan which are both structural in its organization and hardwired in the neurology of humans.
http://online.wsj.com/articles/book-review-why-government-fails-so-often-by-peter-h-schuck-1402355950

[fish]

Confession time! Mr. Fish, you lost me on your term "ardent statists".

ar·dent adjective \ˈär-dənt\: having or showing very strong feelings

Full Definition of ARDENT

1: characterized by warmth of feeling typically expressed in eager zealous support or activity

2: fiery, hot

3: shining, glowing

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Definition of STATIST: an advocate of statism

— statist-adjective

Definition of STATISM: concentration of economic controls and planning in the hands of a highly centralized government often extending to government ownership of industry

In this context it describes the clique of confused sierra foothills denizens who seem to think that because they punch a circle on a ballot that somehow they still influence how they are governed.

[Bill Tozer]

Tanks Fish, tanks a rock.

[Walt]

See the latest out of "O" and Co.?
Out to ban guns.... AGAIN...
Time to buy more stocks in Strum Ruger, and ammunition manufacturers.
He sure is helping LIBS win election in Nov. Keep up the good work "O"... LOL!

[Bill Tozer]

Re: The Fourth Revolution: The timetable is just about as the same as the fall of Saigon. Pity the poor peasants we left behind. Can you say Cambodia? Thats right. I knew you could.

http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2014/06/10/white-house-state-department-condem-escalating-violence-in-iraq/

[Gregory]

Regarding the WSJ review of "Why Government Fails So Often", it seems completely congruent to Karl Popper's "The Open Society and its Enemies", written in 1945. What I took from reading it years ago was that governments that require the right people in the right job for good results are doomed to failure; for robustness, you need the system that can best survive having the wrong people doing the job, because that is unavoidable. In short, no centralized concentration of power.

That didn't make the wiki summary, you'll just have to trust me, or read it yourself.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Open_Society_and_Its_Enemies

[George Rebane]

Gregory 446pm - "no centralized concentration of power" has been the prime tenet on governance since RR began, and way before that when I punched my own cards that implemented Fortran code on a CDC 3300 - I do trust you. Now who else does? ;-)

[Russ Steele]

George,

I ran my first Fortran cards decks on a PDP-11 in my office's signal processing lab, then on a CDC ??, as time was too hard to get scheduled on the PDP-11 even though my office owned/shared the machine. Cannot remember the CDC model number. It was in the sub-basement of SAC HQ. I just submitted my card decks at the little window slot and the printouts were picked up off a cubby shelf, never saw the machine.

[Bill Tozer]

This talk of Fortan cards is way way beyond my pay grade. Once again Mr. Gregory has been proven right.

As far as no centralized concentration of power, Al-Qaeda must have read "The Open Societies and its Enemies", taken it deeply to heart and now they are flourishing preciously because of no centralized power. Wac-a-Mole time.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/world/national-security/from-iraq-to-syria-splinter-groups-becoming-larger-worry-than-al-qaeda/2014/06/10/28abae1c-f0d6-11e3-914c-1fbd0614e2d4_story.html

[George Rebane]

Russ 859pm - the CDC3300 predated the PDP-11 by over 10 years and was obsolete when the first minis came out. The first PDP-11 I bought was already 'key to disk' - hot stuff for the early 70s.

[Russ Steele]

Steven F. Hayward of The Weekly Standard:

'The environmental community is so deeply invested in looming catastrophe that it’s difficult to envision a scientific result that would alter their cult-like bearing. Rather than reflect, they deflect, blaming the Koch brothers, the fossil fuel industry, and Republican “climate deniers” for their lack of political progress. Yet organized opposition to climate change fanaticism is tiny compared with the swollen staffs and huge marketing budgets of the major environmental organizations, not to mention the government agencies around the world that have thrown in with them on the issue.

The main energy trade associations seldom speak up about climate science controversies. The major conservative think tanks have no climate change programs to speak of. The Cato Institute devotes just two people to the issue. The main opposition to climate fanaticism is confined to the Heartland Institute, the London-based Global Warming Policy Foundation, the Competitive Enterprise Institute, and a scattering of relentless bloggers who have acquired surprisingly large readerships. That’s it. These are boutique operations next to the environmental establishment: The total budgets for all of these efforts would probably not add up to a month’s spending by just the Sierra Club. And yet we are to believe that this comparatively small effort has kept the climate change agenda at bay. It certainly keeps climateers in an uproar.'

Thought you should know!