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07 January 2015

Comments

Todd Juvinall

If a person wants to die, point an object at a cop. Many want to die.

George Rebane

Well s#!t. Here I thought that my contribution to the national hyper-ventilation du jour of cops vs blacks would be of interest, especially since I dug out the clearly indicative quantitative Bayesian behavior support for the two legitimate perspectives of fear. But nothing.

Don't know whether no one gives a crap anymore about that enduring problem, or I didn't do a good job framing it, or the goddam ragheads in Paris co-opted the attention bandwidth of RR's readership, or ... . Oh well.

fish

Posted by: George Rebane | 09 January 2015 at 12:10 PM

I suspect it was more a case of your offering being overshadowed by current events!

Walt

Well Doc,, the cops are giving in, in N.Y. Any petty crime they look the other way.
Not hardly a speeding ticket, or parking violation is being issued. They have pretty much said "screw it"... The cop is the new bad guy in LIB land. They are now working with the same rules of engagement our troops had to deal with in Iraq and the other terrorist lands.
Our cops may soon need to call an att. just to make an arrest, let alone give a bad guy lead poisoning.
Pretty soon, they will need to call a black cop in, to shoot a black perp. How else will police keep from getting charged with racism?

Keen Observer

Dr. Rebane,

I would not be so hasty to chalk it up to a loss of interest in the subject. When faced with hard numbers on a scale as you have so graciously provided above, even the most fervent "cops are racist" rhetoric heads for the safe bunker of numberless progressive thinking. The rest of us remain silently satisfied in agreement, like a man smoking a pipe after Thanksgiving Dinner, and are appreciative of your numerical and logical analysis of the subject.

George Rebane

Thank you all for the kind words. Yes, I guess this piece did get some fierce competition from the recent Islamists attacks.

On the topic at hand, when correctly posing the 'blacks fear' perspective in a similar fashion as the 'police fear' - "the important ratio is the probability of being shot by the police given that I am black vs the same probability given that I am a non-black" - I was surprised at the high value (3.13) that this ratio obtained. Comparing it to the 5.5 likelihood ratio of the police arguably legitimizes the arguments from both sides. Frankly, I was expecting that the blacks would derive less from the data to support their claims. But I stand by my assessment of what is required to effectively improve this unfortunate relationship between the blacks and the police.

drivebyposter

The main problem is, of course, that the topic is purest kryptonite.

I suppose that people could draw their own conclusions via these two tables:

http://www.fbi.gov/about-us/cjis/ucr/crime-in-the-u.s/2011/crime-in-the-u.s.-2011/tables/expanded-homicide-data-table-3

http://quickfacts.census.gov/qfd/states/00000.html

I strongly suspect that the FBI tables will cease to exist sometime in the near future.

Bill the Tozer

As I mentioned before, the vast majority of law enforcement (especially the cop on the beat) are good people. I see this latest "kill the pig" as an attack on cops in general. The thin blue line that separates civilized society from anarchy. If you are in the process of about to be robbed or raped and the perp is trying to beat down your door, who are you going to call? Brother Ben? A peacenik? A methhead, a gangsta crankster, your Aunt Beluea?

Remember when Congresswoman Gabby got plunked in the head? Oh, Obama and Co. rushed to the cameras to tell us this is a direct result of vitriol speech. We need to tone down the rhetoric!!!! The Libs had a field day at the same time when they uncovered a Sarah Palin posting of Dems to be targeted for defeat at the polls with a bullseye on the picture. Haven't see Obama/Holder rushing to the cameras telling folks to tone down the rhetoric that the President and Justice Department and mayor of New York City incited, or at least fueled the flames.

More on the topic Dr. Rebane's post. I asked my Dad years after he retired from the police force what was his proudest moment of being a cop. Without hesitating even a split second, he said over the course of 29 years, he never shot anybody.
Then he continued to say that the reason there are so many police shootings is the height and weight qualifications for police officers have been relaxed too low. At 6' 1"inch and all of 170 pounds as a rookie he almost did not get hired because he was too small. He was by far the smallest cop on the force. Every flatfoot went to the weight room after work and pumped it up. Those where the days you did not pull out a gun but wrestled the bad guys to the ground. Some cops could take a big crazied criminal and grab them by the ankles and hold them upside down.
He continued that nowadays, some 5'4" female cops pulls over a 6' 8" muscle bound black dude with an attitude and the female cop (or any small framed cop) is now more likely to pull out the equalizer. The cops feel threatened instead of showing the person pulled over respect. Yes the bad guys feel threatened and the cops feel threatened by all these street drugs that make people out of their friggin minds, some armed to the teeth.

Michael Brown would have not been shot in the old days. The yesteryear 300 pound champion weightlifter cop would have twisted him up like a pretzel and spanked his butt or held him down on the ground until he cried "Uncle". Yes, the cops and the bad guys no longer go thought an entire career (police and criminal career) with just a 38 and a shotgun. Both sides have much to fear.
With all that said, the pushback will happen. The NYPD were told by their superiors not to turn their back on their cop bashing mayor anymore. Those words are falling on deaf ears. Just think of all the millions of dollars in revenue are being lost when the cops don't write parking tickets or cite speeders. Cops are good people, but like the French and Northern Europe are finding out, you can only push good people so far until they start pushing back. Whether it is Islamic terrorists on European soil or Holder and Obama's words against the thin blue line, people of goodwill will start pushing back. And cops are people.

drivebyposter

http://spokane.wsu.edu/admissions/Criminal-Justice/faculty-staff/Racial&EthnicBiasDFJDMStrongerLens_ExperimentalCriminology_JamesKlingerVila2014.pdf

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