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04 February 2015


Paul Emery

I once again have to remind readers that no Republican will be nominated that does not support the Trans Pacific partnership. That eliminates any candidate with legitimate Conservative credentials. Not a problem with the Dems since Hillary, like her hubby are big time supporters.

Bill  Tozer

Since Ben Carson spoke recently, does that more the needle? Dr. Carson is so far down he has nowhere to go but up. 6% in one staw poll and 9% in another state straw poll.

The good news is that Dr. Carson is ahead of Uncle Joe "The Shotgun" Biden at this time the last time The Shotgun ran for his party's nomination. Joe even got as high as 3% in one state poll, but other than that rarely cracked the 2% barrier. Now we have Uncle Joe just one heartbeat from sitting in Obama's chair. Only in America.


George Rebane

BillT 122pm - As point of clarification, a potential candidates ranking in the polls for picking a preferred president probably has little to do with the probability that he will declare his candidacy. Recall that this is what this Prediction Derby is trying to estimate - what is the probability that a given potential candidate will declare his candidacy.

If you wish, you could come up with an argument fro a likelihood that the most recent poll numbers swayed Dr Carson this way or that, but his low current poll ratings of 6% or 9% do not mean that that those are also the probabilities that he will declare to run.

Your argument would be such as: Candidates at this stage of the campaign who get such low poll numbers drop out of the race before declaring candidacy twice (or three times, or four times, or...) as often as not. This would let you set L = 1/2 and use it in the update formula for Ben Carson. Is that what you want to do?

Bill  Tozer

Nope, just thought Dr. Carson is moving closer to declaring his candididacy. He is undeclared as of this moment, but speaking at events where straw polls are taken. I suppose that one could argue that with each passing week, all of those who end up tossing their hats into the ring are moving closer to giving a run at the Golden Ring a big thumbs up. The others are drawing, over time, closer to giving the thought the big thumbs down. Then there will be some that are for it before they were against it, as you pointed out. That you for the clarification and your generous forbearance. I am a worm and shall go back to my castings pile.

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