Scattershots – 29jun15 (updated 30jun15)

George Rebane

Pot-based tourism in Nevada County is the topic of this week’s Union column by George Boardman whose comments are also often read on these pages.  This is a column full of thought provoking ideas, some obviously with tongue firmly planted in cheek.  But the gist of a TV series (‘High Country’) concerns local MJ jinks – both high and low – practiced by the natives in these foothills.  If well written, I can see many interesting and humorous sub-themes with interwoven characters – e.g. one based on ‘Smokey and the Bandit’ of our sheriff forever on the trail of a certain local RMJ grower.  Supervisor Beason’s concern that such notoriety for the county may keep high tech industries from locating here is legitimate, but I think the concern will abate when more closely examined in light of the overall benefit to our community.  Good piece (paywalled here) to get this conversation started Mr Boardman. 

‘We’re Losing the Cyber War’ and no one is “personally responsible” according to Ms Katherine Archuleta who heads our Office of Personnel Management that has now admitted to mismanaging the safe-keeping of tens of millions of detailed personal files on fed employees, former employees, and contractors with security clearances.  Most Americans expect a generous level of systemic incompetence from the federal bureaucracies and their staffs, especially their politically appointed bosses.  But Ms Archuleta has really broken new ground here.

The purloining of these millions of files highlights two major concerns – our inability to stop Chinese and other foreign cyber attacks, and the potential damage that the information in those files can do to individuals who work for/with government in sensitive positions.  Of most concern are the security background check files that China now has on thousands of government defense managers and contract workers.  On active duty I also served as the S-2 Intelligence Officer of a nuclear capability artillery battalion.  In my possession and charge were several hundred security clearance files on members of my unit.  I worked closely with the local Army intelligence office charged with investigating people regarding potential changes in their clearances, and therefore have read many such files.  The contents’ depth and detail of such files is eye-popping, and in many cases can be used to blackmail people who hold/held such clearances to reveal classified aspects of the projects they work/ed on.  Serious stuff indeed that will now place a huge additional burden on the various gumshoe agencies who must start much closer levels of surveillance on (tens of?) thousands of vulnerable clearance holders.  (Yes Virginia, if you hold a high security clearance, then as a routine you will be periodically very closely ‘monitored’ – foregoing your privacy is the price paid by those of us who work to keep our fellow Americans secure.)

And speaking of China, author and military analyst Peter Singer is making the Pentagon rounds giving presentations to our military warning of the strong likelihood that we will fight WW3 with The People’s Republic (more here).  I have ordered Singer’s new book, Ghost Fleet: A Novel of the Next World War, that will be released tomorrow, and is already on the Pentagon’s reading list (as have been a couple of his previous techno-thrillers).  So far we can surmise that Obama’s ‘Asia pivot’ has been executed with blindfold firmly in place as we continue to reduce our military’s ability to project force while China's technicians and military are rapidly expanding and exercising their country’s military and technical abilities which they daily exercise ‘in our face’ both in international waters and on the internet.

The big fear is that China has the ability at will to shut down major parts of our country’s infrastructure and critical military systems already deployed on our ships and aircraft.  How?  Both through advanced hacking technology, but most fearfully through Trojan functions in China-manufactured microchips that are already embedded in our civilian and military equipments worldwide.  Meanwhile the incompetents in Washington are dancing in the streets celebrating the victory which is crippling one sixth of our economy with sky-rocketing premiums and reduced access to healthcare for all except our top quintile or two.

[30jun15 update]  This morning Union’s print edition informs us that the local loonie Left has sent hate mail to the NC Tea Party, threatening to disrupt this weekend’s 4^th of July parade when the TP unit passes by.  Limiting free speech by the Left has become an ongoing drumbeat across the country that spawned in our universities, arches across the lamestream media, and now easilty reaches into local communities.  It is always the Left that calls for silencing its opposition wherever they encounter it.  The threatening writer has a history of hate toward the NCTP, and warns, “If you continue to support this anti-constitutional, anti-Christian ideology, start packing or pay the consequences of the outing of the cruel inhuman people your T Party represents.”  Local law enforcement officials are taking the threat seriously.  (I could not find this story’s URL on the Union's website.  We are now 20 years into the WWW, and sadly The Union still does not have a professional website; its current site is horribly designed and broken in many places.  Reminds one of healthcare.gov.)

'Has China’s Stock Market Bubble Burst?’ asks a Stratfor article in its title.  When you read the article, it meanders all over the map giving reasons why it may, and then again why it may not have burst.  In short, they don’t know.  When I read one of these pieces with a questioning title that promises to provide the reader an answer, and then doesn’t, I get really irked (aka pissed to the gills).  (Elementary probability tells us how to represent ignorance about the truth of N equally likely competing propositions – you assign them each a 1/N probability of being true.  Will the coin land heads or tails?  Your correct answer to tell people that you don’t know is that it’s ’50-50’, or with probabilities ½ and ½ that it will land either way.)  When an article lays out arguments that equally support all N advertised alternatives, it implicitly assigns 1/N to each alternative.  In that case it shouldn’t use a title that implies it has any added information about the outcome.  Oh well.

Comments

[Gregory]

Well, the way they make shows is, they make one show. That show's called a pilot. Then they show that show to the people who make shows, and on the strength of that one show they decide if they're going to make more shows. Some pilots get picked and become television programs. Some don't, become nothing. She starred in one of the ones that became nothing.

Most become nothing. THC (Pot Fiction?) has an uphill battle to fight and I think it would have to be a big hit to be a significant positive for the local economy.

[Todd Juvinall]

GeorgeR, there is no need to worry. The left will open the gates for Chinese hegemony and we can go back to smoking the ganga. "What? Me worry?

Boardman's article was very good. I thought he has it pegged pretty well. Soon there will be a Chinese reality show called, "American pot smokers on death row", after they take over. LOL!

[Bill Tozer]

Reality shows about Annie Oakley and her inbred clan growing pot is sooooo Housewives of Omaha. Well, at least Paris Hilton got her notoriety starring in that Jewish American Princesses Milking Cows And Feeding Chickens spellbinding series. What's the most exciting thing we can expect from another pot cultivating series? An approaching thunderstorm?? Here's the theme music from Jaws again. That be just like Deadliest Catch. Maybe some cleavage angles. Or, waving all the cash in front of the cameras at the end just to make millions of viewers dream a little dream of weed?
It's a mystery how all those great shots and scenes end up on the cutting room floor. Too behind the times, I reckon.

[George Rebane]

Looking at the lack of interest, or even awareness, that Americans have about China's geo-strategic maneuvers, I wonder if such was also the mood of the Poles and French in the late 1930s.

[Todd Juvinall]

Probably. Here is the latest expenditure of your taxpayers money by a non-profit. No wonder the country is toast. From their FB posting.

"Are you a baseball fan in the Reno/Tahoe area? If so, do we have a chance for you!
The first five SBC followers to message us their contact info will win two FREE tickets to the SBC-sponsored July 6th Reno Aces game where they'll play the Sacramento River Cats in the battle for the Sierra! Game starts at 7 pm - Don't miss your chance to join us for a great night at the ball park!"

[Don Bessee]

DR. R. 640 - The Poles had no delusion about their situation caught between Stalin and Hitler. So soon after all the boarder adjusting made things worse. The Nazis used the same ethnic peoples argument that we hear from putin now. The Poles were the ones who cracked the code machine before the war started and luckily shared it with the Brits. The whole French situation with commie agitators causing strikes in the army and the French being the French makes for an encylapeida sized answer that I will pass on! Along those lines there is an interesting convergance of concerns taking place right now about the lack of ships for the USMC and the open discussion of having USMC on foreign ships due to our lack of transport, specifically in the European theater. Big concerns about having our first respond units possible being caught in legal restrictions by the host country (good cause for concern) and them not supporting some expedition and refusing to let our troops off the ship. Just a couple of days ago in a trade journal there was a financial analysis of the acquisition of the 2 French assault ships that were denied to putin for being a bad boy. Bottom line is that our America class assault ships unit costs make it practical to buy both the mistrals and refit for less than 1 America class. The mistrals are built for heavy ice and would be great for northern Europe and some other cold places we care about. If we can get creative there could be a big boost for defense unity and enhanced independent mobility for our leathernecks.

[George Rebane]

DonB 753pm - So as not to confuse, I was ruminating about the mood (apprehension?) of the Polish man in the street. The leaderships and worldly intellectuals of the day - save for the odd idiot like Chamberlain - were very much aware in 1930s of how the Continent's power balance had shifted and the portents of that shift.

[Gregory]

Our only chance of besting China at the end of this century is for a cultural revolution part deux. Otherwise, it's those with the gold make the rules and their rulers are better capitalists than ours are.

[Don Bessee]

DR. R 853- The dominos had been falling in their neighborhood for awhile and they were essentially surrounded and the whole danzig drum beat was in their face. Newsreels were the fresh mass media then and gobels was very good. Austria and the Czechoslovakians had been swallowed with the Skoda works. Italy and Japan had already said screw you to the league of nations and Chamberlin like 0 proved it was all about getting a deal.

[George Rebane]

DonB 939pm - I think we have our time scales skewed. No dominoes fell before 1936. And it is that period of which I speak.

[Don Bessee]

My bad, I thought you said late 30's @ 640.

[Account Deleted]

I asked my father about the late 30's and why people in America weren't more alarmed about what was happening in Asia and Europe. The short answer was America was still mired in a financial mess and the Dems obviously couldn't fix it as they had promised. What happened 1/2 way around the world still didn't interest most folks, despite the advances in communications and travel technology. He said when ever he was at the movies and the news reels were run, everyone just laughed at Hitler and Mussolini giving their speaches. No one thought to actually listen to the translations of what they were saying.
He remembered his father sternly telling him in '37 to be sure to get his college degree so when the war came he could go in as an officer and to 'not get stuck in some f*ing mudhole in France'. There were some that saw what was about to happen and yes, our leaders were already gearing up for major war. The electricity from Hoover Dam was intended for the war effort from the start. There was no need for that amount of electricity when it was planed. Billy Mitchell went bonkers trying to wake people up to what was going to happen and what we needed to do to prepare.
China has already demonstrated their cabability for getting rid of our satellites. And hacking into our infrastructure control systems at will.
And this country is mired in squabbles about what bathrooms we can use and what piece of cloth we can display.

[Steven Frisch]

Who would have thought that the great American pastime could be politicized :)

[Todd Juvinall]

Well headed off to the Recorder's Office. Later.

[Gregory]

So the SBC is now officially minor league?

[Bill Tozer]

Todd @ 10:23am; Getting the license to tie the knot? If you are serving something other than pizza following the Blessed Cerermony of entering into Holy Matrimony, I will be there. Hey, where's my invite?

Steven Frisch @9:43 am. Who could have thought that the great American Pastime could inspire such American Icons such as the Baby Ruth candy bar (currently added to Dyers Ice Cream) or the world famous delight to millions of kids, great and small, young and old, the one and only Yogi Bear cartoons staring Mr. "I haven't found the right girl yet" Ranger, Booboo, and Daisy Bear in her stunning pink tutu that should leave more to the imagination. Simply amazing.. What a pastime.

[Todd Juvinall]

No BillT, matrimony, nope. LOL.

[Barry Pruett]

No word from our local leftist about the threats to local conservatives. Pretty news worthy...unless of course you only want to create a false narrative that violent rhetoric is coming from the right. The fact is that the left can only react with violent rhetoric because their ideas are bad.

On other note, Jimmy Carter thinks Obama has been a foreign policy nightmare. Jimmy Carter...

[Todd Juvinall]

Barry, they don't even write about the Muslim terrorists on the left as anything but misunderstood little boys needing their Mama. But if you are a Tea Party person, OMG, the terror, the terror!

[Steven Frisch]

Posted by: Barry Pruett | 01 July 2015 at 06:45 AM

Well then Barry, let me be the first. No one should be subject to hateful rhetorical attack upon their beliefs in an attempt to keep them from exercising their free speech rights.

I support not only the right of the NCTPP to march on the 4th of July. By the way I would also supportI the right of the KKK to march in support of maintaining the Confederate flag on the grounds of the SC state house.

Now then, if you held your friends to the same standard you might have a leg to stand on...I read the article in The Union and the 'attack' is tame compared to some of the attacks on blogs.

[Todd Juvinall]

What a whiner. Jeeze.

[Steven Frisch]

Posted by: Todd Juvinall | 01 July 2015 at 07:46 AM

I'm not whining, I am acknowledging that I support anyone who wants to exercise their freedom of speech to do so in the 4th of July parade or any other event as long as they comport with the same rules everyone else does and those rules are constitutional.

I am merely citing the hypocrisy of being exercised about the letter while supporting similar rhetoric in other places. It is a clear double standard.

[George Rebane]

StevenF 759am - Who is "supporting similar rhetoric in other places"?

[Steven Frisch]

I thought we were not going to get into "who" George? If Greg can post clearly referring to specific individuals without being required to identify them then surely I can expect the same standard for my reference, correct?

[Todd Juvinall]

Liberals always want special rules for themselves because they are "special". Whining gets you nothing here because this blogs is populated by men, not wimps.

[George Rebane]

Gentlemen - SteveF is right. Refer to the message as, say, "whining", but not the messenger as a 'whiner'.

[Barry Pruett]

Posted by: Steven Frisch | 01 July 2015 at 07:21 AM
First, I do not consider a "local leftist." Left of center, yes. Total leftist? I do not think so. Second and I know you agree, I do not think that I would use the word "support" in connection with the KKK, but I would certainly not deny them the right to say stupid stuff. Third, I am not discussing the "attack" on conservatives per se, but the lack of fair reporting on some of our more leftist blogs. It is certainly a newsworthy story in our local hamlet, yet it does not fit the local leftist narrative that all violent rhetoric comes from the right. As such, the story is absent from the usual suspect on the left.

[Steven Frisch]

Posted by: Barry Pruett | 01 July 2015 at 09:25 AM

Barry, thank you. I would agree that on some issues I am what people might consider to be left of center, and I do not shy from that. For example, my mantra of "internalize the externalities' may be critiqued here as leftist, but any reasonable analysis would actually conclude that it is a conservative economic principle.

To clarify, my 'support' was modifying 'right to march', not the content of the message.

[Gregory]

"internalize the externalities' may be critiqued here as leftist, but any reasonable analysis would actually conclude that it is a conservative economic principle."

Classic leftist rhetoric... if you don't agree, you're being unreasonable. Agree, and you will find the fight moving to which bureaucracy determines the details. Rust never sleeps.

[George Rebane]

StevenF 952am - Could you perhaps point us to any such "reasonable analysis" that would help us to "conclude that (internalizing the externalities) is a conservative economic principle"? Thanks.

[Steven Frisch]

Posted by: George Rebane | 01 July 2015 at 02:58 PM

George I am going to ask that we agree on a discussion definition of 'externality'.

Would you agree that a 'negative externality' is something one actor or set of actors (A) does in an economy that affects another actor or set of actors (B) in a negative way which B is not compensated for?

Would you also agree that a 'positive externality' is something one actor or set of actors (A) does in an economy that affects another actor or set of actors (B) in a positive way which A is not compensated for?

[Gregory]

Steven Frisch, I'd rather see you justify your howler, "any reasonable analysis would actually conclude that it is a conservative economic principle."

In other words, to disagree with Steven Frisch is to be unreasonable. Incredible.

BTW George, before they hit on the catchy "internalize the externalities", the mavens of sustainability called it the " polluters pay principle". Makes for interesting reading.

[Steven Frisch]

Posted by: Gregory | 01 July 2015 at 06:30 PM

You will be waiting for a long time Greg because I am addressing George.

[Gregory]

You were not addressing George's question, and you seem to have a hard time admitting when you are wrong. Claiming one's position is the only reasonable one is rarely reasonable.

[Steven Frisch]

Posted by: Gregory | 01 July 2015 at 08:29 PM

I am merely waiting for George's agreement or alternate definition of 'externalities' that we can use as a mutually agreed upon definition.

I can't really help it if he's eating dinner or watching a ball game (both admirable past times).

Since the mutually agreed definition I am seeking is the very term that he asked the 2:58 question about:

"Could you perhaps point us to any such "reasonable analysis" that would help us to "conclude that (internalizing the externalities) is a conservative economic principle"

...then I am hardly avoiding the issue...I am respectfully awaiting the reply.

I am not raising to your 'snark bait."

[Don Bessee]

just seeking agreements on definitions said the Iranian negotiator.' just this week! LOL, you too the 'jon'

[George Rebane]

Wow! We go to a great MIM concert - Verdi, Beethoven, Sibelius - tonight, and I come back to a mudball fight. Deleted a bunch of comments, probably enough to piss off everyone.

SteveF 559pm - What's wrong with Investopedia's "'Externality' A consequence of an economic activity that is experienced by unrelated third parties. An externality can be either positive or negative."?

Or Google's "...a side effect or consequence of an industrial or commercial activity that affects other parties without this being reflected in the cost of the goods or services involved, such as the pollination of surrounding crops by bees kept for honey."

I believe my 258pm question still stands.

[Gregory]

Don Bessee, well said.

[Steven Frisch]

Posted by: George Rebane | 01 July 2015 at 10:54 PM

George, congratulations on getting rid of a good deal of the chaff. A bit still stands, for example I believe the comparison to an Iranian Mullah may be seen by many as ridiculous and gratuitous, and the immediacy with which some lesser souls attribute well thought out positions to falsehoods may be motivated by passion rather than reason, nevertheless most chaff was brought to earth and an relatively insignificant amount deemed 'Churchillian.'

The answer to your question George is pretty complicated. The simple answer is that externalities of all kinds are market inefficiencies, and market inefficiencies represent either lost value or uncompensated damages, both of which harm the workings of the market in the long run.

I would be the first to agree that one can never eliminate all externalities in the operation of a market, but based on your previous posts I think you would agree that since people tend to act in their own self interest, some check on negative externalities in order to moderate behavior is necessary.

Even Adam Smith in his Theory of Moral Sentiment acknowledged that such a check exists, and that it is conscience:

"In solitude, we are apt to feel too strongly whatever relates to ourselves: we are apt to over-rate the good offices we may have done, and the injuries we may have suffered: we are apt to be too much elated by our own good, and too much dejected by our own bad fortune. The conversation of a friend brings us to a better, that of a stranger to a still better temper. The man within the breast, the abstract and ideal spectator of our sentiments and conduct, requires often to be awakened and put in mind of his duty, by the presence of the real spectator: and it is always from that spectator, from whom we can expect the least sympathy and indulgence, that we are likely to learn the most complete lesson of self-command."

This issue of market efficiency is far from the only reason I believe 'internalizing externalities' is essentially a conservative principle; there is the issue of the alternative (in a market with significant negative externalities the damaged parties can resort to a series of remedies and often the internalization of cost though market mechanism is the least damaging alternative), the issue of managing scarcity, the issue of lost market opportunities leading to innovation, etc.

I believe this issue is significant enough that it may warrant the aforementioned submitted monograph which I will work on over the 4th for further discussion.

In the mean time I assume some here will take what they purport to be Churchillian pot shots at this brief introduction, and I will assiduously ignore them, as I am sure you will delete them if the cross the line into passionate irrelevant babble.

[Steven Frisch]

Posted by: George Rebane | 01 July 2015 at 10:54 PM

Oh, and I should have known it would be something like MIM.

[George Rebane]

StevenF 713am - the discussion of externalities continues at
http://rebaneruminations.typepad.com/rebanes_ruminations/2015/07/a-look-at-externalities.html