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15 July 2015

Comments

Steven Frisch

Posted by: Gregory | 17 July 2015 at 01:42 PM

Point remains, the 'spike' is not caused by AB 32 or the RFS, it is caused by constrained refinery capacity. The base price may have been increased by AB 32, but there is not one singe analysis of pricing that actually shows that the RFS has increased prices, there are only models that show the RFS COULD increase prices. And I know how much you dislike computer models as opposed to real measurement---so show me the real measurement that shows the RFS has increased prices. It does not exist.

Gregory

And the constrained refinery capacity is because over decades, since the days of Jerry Brown v.1.0, more than half of the refineries in California have closed. AB32 has done nothing but make a bad situation worse; I think computer models are fine, Steve, but they don't take the place of reality.

Which bean on your plate last night was the one that made you fart this morning, Steve? AB32 has both direct and indirect costs built into it, and when a business, whether mineral extraction, refining or fuel retailing, decides to spend billions into the future their gut of the future business climate has a big say as to whether or not to invest.

Be honest, Steve, AB32 is all about making energy increasingly expensive to the consumer and to Sacramento the only problem is that the prices are ahead of schedule; can't successfully boil the frog if the water gets hot too quickly.

Steven Frisch

Posted by: Gregory | 17 July 2015 at 02:16 PM

100% backward Greg, AB 32 is about reducing emissions; one of the ways to reduce emissions is to make clean energy so cheap it replaces dirty energy, and it will. Utility scale solar is almost as cheap as natural gas now even without subsidy, and this is while natural gas is in a glut.

Of course we could always go back to half the state population not being able to see the mountains that surround them like it was in 1972....but you would lose that fight hands down.

By the way, I support a solution to the gas issue....California refiners are dependent on largely Alaskan oil coming in by tanker....build a southwest pipeline for refined gasoline and California refiners are forced to compete with Texas...and guess what, price goes down. Who opposes a southwest pipeline for gasoline.....you guessed it...California refiners.

Todd Juvinall

Gregory is totally right about AB32. The readers here should discount anything Mr. Frisch says about "climate change" and AB32 since his non-profit gets money from the proceeds of your tax dollars. Clearly a conflict of interest and he is simply padding his bed.

Gregory

100% backwards, Steve. Clean energy isn't being made cheap, it's being mandated no matter what the price and if one needs a terawatt capacity, one has to have a terawatt of conventional capacity since the wind doesn't blow all the time and the sun shines enough to produce enough energy less than half the time. And be honest, the visibility issues in 1972, before catalytic converters, weren't from CO2; the Spanish explorer Cabrillo, when he first sailed into what is now Santa Monica, named it the Bay of Smokes just from the native's campfires. Atmospherically, it's a lousy place to put a city.

If Chinese PV and wind turbine production stops selling below cost, there goes your economic argument.

Gregory

To understand Frisch's view of AB32, one has to understand the underpants business from the Gnome's point of view...
http://southpark.cc.com/clips/151040/the-underpants-business

For AB32, phase 1 is ... mandate electrical power producers use an increasing amount of alternative energy sources for power delivered to homes, no matter the cost, and levy an increasing tax on fossil fuel energies of all sources.

Phase 3 is abundant and cheap clean energy.

What's phase 2?

Steven Frisch

Posted by: Gregory | 17 July 2015 at 02:49 PM

Let's see, yet solar can be just as cheap as natural gas and is getting cheaper every day:

http://ecowatch.com/2015/07/15/cheapest-electricity-solar/

And yes grid stability is an issue but energy storage is also growing in leaps and bounds:

http://www.theverge.com/2015/2/13/8033691/why-teslas-battery-for-your-home-should-terrify-utilities

There are many American solar PV companies that are price competitive with China...sounds like a good business and job creation idea to me :)

And whether its a lousy place for a city or not the problem exists in the central valley too and we ain't moving 30 million people.

Gregory

Steve, name a competitive US PV company that doesn't rely on Chinese mining and/or manufacturing.

Tesla's batteries are old technology in a flashy wrapper with massive subsidies.

Bill Tozer

One reason for the gas spike can be laid directly at the Yapping Libbies door. Here in Ca, we have a special blend of petro that nobody else makes. Gee, we are so special we cannot even import that crap that gives us less miles per gallon at a higher price. We be sooo special. We be the one and only one here that refine it. Nobody else makes that special blend that rots out small engines and metal gas cans.
Is that the meaning of sustainable, is it Wally? "Gee Beave, I don't know. Sounds kinda creepy."
In the depths of the primordial ooze contained within the Liberal cranium, is more less or is less more? Yes kiddies, fact is stranger than fiction.

Todd Juvinall

The solar panels are all made in China, subsidized by our government now there is a great strategy for success.

joe smith

Todd 6:53. "solar panels are all made in China." Did you just wake up and figure you should start the day with another lie? Heck, why not. Solar World in Oregon has been building panels since 1975 (at least). They are huge. They supply homes, business, industry as well as the military. They export their panels around the world. And no Todd, Oregon isn't a Chinese province.

Steven Frisch

Posted by: Todd Juvinall | 17 July 2015 at 06:53 PM

Here is a list of American solar panel manufacturers.

http://www.enfsolar.com/directory/panel/United%20States

But even more important what difference does it make if solar panels are made in China or Mexico? I am assuming Todd supports fair trade and probably buys dozens of products made in China. It is not like he fights Red China buy not buying other products made in China.

What matters is that the rapid rise of solar technology is making solar price competitive with natural gas (even in a glutted natural gas market) and when that happens none of these guys will give a damn about the reason, they will buy cheaper power from whatever the source.

And Greg really misses the point by repeating the oft drilled home anti-renewable energy canard that every MW of renewables require a MW of fossil fuels power. That simply is not true.

Power use spikes for example in California at the very time wind and solar are most productive, in the late afternoon, and diminishes when the "sun goes down" because demand for air conditioning goes down.

The solution in the long term is storage of energy. The thing that Greg misses is that if we can use renewables at peak production to store 2 days worth of power, which is exactly what the Tesla home battery (and others) do, we overcome the problem of peak power usage at certain times of the day governing our power mix (at the same time we decentralize the system making it more reliable in an emergency).

Larry Wirth

Steven F. @ 2:06p, 17 Jul:

There already is a 24" gasoline pipeline from Texas to LA; it runs through Tucson, giving us the lowest gas prices in AZ. I know this 'cause it broke about 10yrs. ago and made a mess.

Interestingly, a few months ago they installed a 10" branch off which passed through my area out in the desert on its way to Hermosillo, Sonora. That probably won't help CA prices very much, but maybe Cali was refusing its allotment for Green reasons...

Steven Frisch

Posted by: George Rebane | 18 July 2015 at 10:41 AM

I think you are talking about a smaller Kinder-Morgan pipeline, which has a limited capacity much of which is taken up by Arizona and Las Vegas (and which moves other pertroeum products like jet fuel for the defense department) Capacity on that pipeline is maxed.

We have a small Kinder-Morgan pipeline going right past my house in Truckee going up and over Donner Summit as well, which is maxed.


The project I am talking about is the "Freedom Pipeline" which would ship 250,000 bpd from Texas to California which would really help stabilize prices in California. It would convert a NG pipeline to a crude and refined products pipeline.

https://rbnenergy.com/the-kinder-morgan-texas-california-crude-pipeline

Steven Frisch

Posted by: Larry Wirth | 18 July 2015 at 10:44 AM

Oops...my apologies, my last post should have had the time stamp from Larry Wirth

George Rebane

StevenF 1101am - "Posted by: George Rebane | 18 July 2015 at 10:41 AM" ??

Steven Frisch

See above, I think I apologized and corrected my mistake. It was a legacy copy.

Steven Frisch

Another example of energy storage being installed

http://www.utilitydive.com/news/ipl-breaks-ground-on-20mw-storage-facility-for-miso-ancillary-services/402206/

Larry Wirth

Mr. Frisch 11:03 18 Jul:

I'm talking about nothing of the sort. The 10" branch to Hermosillo takes off from Marana, just north of Tucson proper, heads south along Sandario Rd, swings west along Ajo way and turns south at Three Points along the Altar wash and crosses into Mexico at Sasabe. I watched many miles of it being layed out along the ground and then watched it being buried. Yes, its a 10" pipe, hard to miss.

The source for this gasoline is the 24" main in use for many years. You're talking about local nickel-dime branches in your neighborhood, I suppose.

Larry Wirth

And how was your "Freedom Pipeline" help if California can't even use the gasoline? Do they re-refine to make it compliant?
The "big guy" may have other branches to Phoenix and Las Vegas, but Hermosillo is a larger city than either Tucson or Las Vegas and is taking about 16% of capacity. There are no other large cities in Arizona or Nevada, so it figures some is still available for Cali...

And what is the daily capacity of a 24" gasoline capacity in bbls?

Larry Wirth

Steven, Google "Pipeline 101" to see the extent and distribution of this 24" line, then get back to us.

Gregory

LW, I love using the Marana airport with the mothballed Beech Starship turboprop pushers. Then there's that other airport north of it that's the old CIA facility.

What Frisch misses is that the battery technology is still not cost effective especially for home use and including maintenance, we probably don't want everyone having that much electrochemical energy stored in dry cells (they burn reeeallll goooood) and the last time I checked the last primary lead smelter in the US was closed down a few years ago. Not that having lots of low energy density chemical storage is all that great, either.

All of the problems are solvable, but they ain't been solved yet for all the folks who want to flip a switch for the lights to home on and to call SGE (Somewhere Gas and Electric) when it doesn't, and have it at a comparable price. A Tesla battery in every garage is not the solution to anything except Musk's cash flow and debt service.

Those batteries burn good when in cars, too.
http://fleetsafetyinstitute.com/Media/2014/09/fleet-vehicles-fire-extinguishers-electric-vehicle-challenge/

Steven Frisch

Posted by: Larry Wirth | 18 July 2015 at 02:58 PM

I love it Larry, is your only motivation in coming here and commenting is basically to play "gotcha"? I am not disputing that you say a pipeline built, where it goes, or anything else. What I said at the beginning was that one of the issues with California pricing is dependence on Alaskan oil and that increasing supply would help stabilize and reduce prices. Pretty basic economics. I also don;t dispute that we have a refining capacity issue--that is one of the problems.

I am however familiar with the pipeline network and do quite a bit of reading on energy policy, including refining issues and supply issues. I even meet with the Western States Petroleum Association on a relatively regular basis to discuss these issues. It is from them directly that I have heard concerns about the proposed Kinder Morgan pipeline and from their analysts that they fear lower refined prices because they have a higher profit margin the higher the price is. That is pretty basic price gouging if you ask me.

Steven Frisch

Posted by: Gregory | 18 July 2015 at 03:22 PM

Seriously, while you guys suck at the teat of big oil and coal, we are going to solve these problems. You're on the porch and we're in the arena, which must chap your hide.

There are hundreds of examples of storage projects going on and not just batteries, but compressed air, chemical storage, hydrogen, and others.
http://www.utilitydive.com/news/san-diego-gas-electric-proposes-unique-customer-sited-energy-storage-rate/402279/

Larry Wirth

No "gotcha," Steven. Just keeping your eyes on the road you and your fellow travelers have foisted on your innocent fellow citizens.

Ca has super high gas prices, courtesy of progressives:

1. CARB, brought to you by eco-nuts

2. No supply 'cause of no drilling, no-fracking, brought to you courtesy of Lib nimbys.

3. Not enough refinery capacity brought to you by Ca EPA types.

4. Looming water shortage, brought to you by Dems who welcomed in 15 million new resident, most illegal, without allowing any infrastructure improvement.

5. Looming power shortage, ditto. If Ca couldn't purchase huge amounts of electricity from other states, the grid would already be kaput. And now the usual suspects are attempting to close down 4-Corners, twenty years ahead of schedule.

Good luck covering that with wind and solar.

Larry Wirth

And before you question my knowledge of the late-great Ca, let me assure that at 50+ years, I lived there far longer than you
have, or probably longer than you ever will.

Why do you think taxpayers leave Ca while illegals pour in?

Steven Frisch

Posted by: Larry Wirth | 18 July 2015 at 07:41 PM


All I can say is I'm glad you're in Arizona Larry and I can't wait until the Hispanic voting block become the majority in Arizona in about 10 years and you need to move to Montana.

George Rebane

StevenF 845pm - Again thank you for clarifying those sentiments about the continued fundamental transformation of America.

Todd Juvinall

How many latinos working at SBC? Blacks? Republicans?

Larry Wirth

Frisch @8:45, where did say I have a problem with Hispanics? They already a majority in Tucson and that's ok with me. The problem is illegal aliens and, while they pass through my back yard, they don't stay in Arizona, they go to Ca. If AZ is to have a Hispanic majority overall, it will come through natural population increase. And virtually all Mexican-Americans hereabouts speak English, often better than the Anglos.

So how about addressing the portion of my remarks that were under discussion? Or did you hear a "dog-whistle"?

Joe Koyote

Todd, how many blacks, latinos, muslims, gays, or democrats did you hire when you were a building contractor? And you never answered my question about recycling the other day. That must mean you don't recycle, right?

Joe Koyote

New research from Columbia University and the University of Pennsylvania has found that "Hospitalizations for heart conditions, neurological illness, and other conditions were higher among people who live near unconventional gas and oil drilling (hydraulic fracturing)…" in the Marcellus shale region. The study went on to say that the increase in health problems coincides with the increase in fracking in the area. The more wells, the more health problems, go figure.

Larry Wirth

Penn and Columbia! My favorite, down-the-middle, snot-nosed Ivy League Universities. And I should trust their research exactly why, again? Go figure.

Steven Frisch

I din't say you had a problem with Hispanics Larry, I said you are going to have a problem with how they vote.

fish

Posted by: Steven Frisch | 19 July 2015 at 12:26 AM

Excellent point!

"It is said that if the democratic party thought that illegal Mexican and Central American immigrants were going to be republican voters there would be a 50 ft high fence topped with barbed wire, shards of broken glass, and gun towers. The fence would end a 1/2 mile into the pacific on one end and mile into the Gulf of Mexico."

It's good to have functionary from the Outer Party offer tacit admission that this is why the US has decided to import a significant fraction of the 3rd world.

fish

Posted by: Steven Frisch | 18 July 2015 at 04:12 PM

Seriously, while you guys suck at the teat of big oil and coal, we are going to solve these problems. You're on the porch and we're in the arena, which must chap your hide.

Oh come now Steve.....really...."the arena"!

While I seriously hope that human ingenuity solves the myriad problems with which the world currently contends I hardly think that the image of the doughy middle aged white guy mounting his valiant steed (Big Oil fueled, company provided Subaru) while charging off on a harrowing journey to his desk job on the mean streets of Truckee California is the one you want to leave following these little chats.

"the arena".......?!? Puhleeze!

Todd Juvinall

JoeK, ask Steve Frisch to answer my question as you seem to be joined at the hip.

Fish, 6:26AM, that is a reality. Look at all the ways the left has tried to boost their voter numbers. Shorter registration periods, motor voter, registration forms attached to many government documents, no ID's, slip operatives into polling places, ACORN registering Mickey Mouse thousands of times, dead people in major cities voting numerous times, and more. Once we root out all their illegal ways of gaming the system we will see quite a squealing as they all become back-brenchers. There was UN-purseued voter fraud here for many years but a democrat was in charge so nothing was done.

Bill Tozer

Now that they have their stinkin' papers, they can vote (fraudulently) Funny, illegals can manage to get ID's, but not lame American nationals without any semblance of an ID who may wish to vote sometime down the road in a galaxy far far away. Bet your bottom dollar our fellow Americans manage to come up with SSNs and some form of ID when signing up for the handouts. But they can't manage to get a Voter ID?? Beam me up, Scottie.
It's them evil Republicans that want to suppress the lazy and shiftless from voting. A conspiracy to keep the Negros under Whitey's thumb I tell ya. Please show your stinkin' papers.
Yep, the Demos have cornered the voter fraud market. Nuff said.

http://www.dailynews.com/government-and-politics/20150718/nearly-400000-undocumented-immigrants-get-california-drivers-licenses

Paul Emery

Todd

Can you outline for me the efforts that Bush made to correct voter "fraud" during his tenure?

Todd Juvinall

Paul Emery, not interested in doing your homework eh?

Gregory

"Seriously, while you guys suck at the teat of big oil and coal, we are going to solve these problems."

You have no role in solving those problems, Steven Frisch, you're just a mindless rent-seeking cheerleader on the side.

"You're on the porch and we're in the arena, which must chap your hide."

I relish the day you are in the arena, so do the lions.

"There are hundreds of examples of storage projects going on and not just batteries, but compressed air, chemical storage, hydrogen, and others."

OK, so you've given up on making everyone buy a few thousand bucks worth of batteries from Musk. I suppose that's a good thing. Compressed air is a loser (there's a reason the Tata compressed air car isn't happening) but without you having a clue about thermodynamics there's not much point in explaining it to you since you really don't want to know. Hydrogen is chemical storage, and there's conversion losses there, too, not to mention the problems of storing hydrogen gas known since the Hindenberg. Imagine utility scale hydrogen storage... all that eats into the margins.

http://www.utilitydive.com/news/san-diego-gas-electric-proposes-unique-customer-sited-energy-storage-rate/402279/

The money quote in that piece cited by Frisch regards the problem of "reaching the right arrangement with companies like SolarCity and Tesla that will offer no upfront cost, third-party-funded batteries to customers as part of California’s new aggregated DER program." Ahh, someone else's money once again. Massive sweeteners in the tax code.

Now we're back to throwing business to Tesla, with tax advantaged lease arrangements to get others to buy and install the batteries for PG&E where they can tap them at will. Sweet. Smoke and mirrors, anyone? Place your bets regarding the number of homes that burn while the bugs are being worked out.

Steve, if and when the technology is viable, coercion won't be necessary. This ain't Chicago. And, for the time being, the technology isn't viable. The Germans have figured this out, so has Spain. California hasn't gotten the attitude adjustment yet.

Joe Koyote

array 9:16 -- "Penn and Columbia! My favorite, down-the-middle, snot-nosed Ivy League Universities. And I should trust their research exactly why, again? Go figure."

I suppose you prefer the academic excellence of Fox news and the Heritage Foundation?

fish

Posted by: Joe Koyote | 19 July 2015 at 09:01 AM


Hey Larry....watch me scare JoKe....


KOCH BROTHERS!



Yeah......that'll get your heart started!

Joe Koyote

Hey Larry watch me scare Carp -- DEMOCRACY not Plutocracy

George Rebane

JoeK 925am - I too am very scared of democracy in the form to which collectivists aspire. For it is indeed a scary thing as our Founders were well aware and did their best not to bequeath it to us.

fish

Posted by: Joe Koyote | 19 July 2015 at 09:25 AM

Hey Larry watch me scare Carp -- DEMOCRACY not Plutocracy

Democracy leads to Plutocracy. I don't endorse it JoKe I merely note it.

Larry Wirth

To All:

Since this conversation is supposed to be about "sustainability," I took a look (didn't take long) at the source of California's electricity. Very interesting.

Seems that approximately 32% of the supply is directly imported from neighbors, some hydro from Washington and Oregon, but the largest proportion from Arizona (Four Corners)in the form of coal fired generation. Don't know if CA still gets any power from Hoover Dam.

Seems 60% of the power is from nat gas plants in-state, but 90% of the gas in imported. 6x9= 54%.

So 54% + 32% = 86% of Cali's electricity is imported, either directly or indirectly! Turning the existing Kinder Mort gas line into petro product might put a dent in the 54%.

Of the remaining electric supply of 14%, 10% is hydro, leaving a whopping 4% for nuclear, wind, solar, biomass, geothermal.

And of those, the largest is nuclear (with just 2 plants vs. hundreds and thousands of bird choppers and burners.

Is this anyone's idea of sustainability.

Larry Wirth

Next up, a look at "transportation" fuels. Expect a similar pattern of sustainability.

Larry Wirth

Now add in a few hundred thousand Teslas and you having a looming disaster of first magnitude. But our progressives are worried about CAGW?

Todd Juvinall

FISH, the Koch brothers want more individual freedom while the JoeK libs want more government. Do you think JoeK will resist the government when they come for him/her?

George Rebane

Administrivia - just discovered and rescued Gregory's 834am from the spam folder. If your comment doesn't publish, please enter another short one asking me to check the spam folder. Have no idea what TypePad's algo is for putting stuff in there.

Gregory

Ain't never had one stuck before, and I've been out most of the day. Thanks for finding it, George.

Paul Emery

Todd

I did my research of Bush era efforts to correct voter fraud and it appears there wasn't any.

Todd Juvinall

So?

Larry Wirth

Mr. Frisch seems to have left the building. Sure hope it wasn't something I said...

Larry Wirth

To All:

Mr. Frisch doesn't want to further discuss sustainability, and I can understand why. Let's take a quick look at petroleum.

First, the good news. CA has the fourth largest reserves of all US states, and is the third largest producer @ ca. 6.4% of the US total. Surprisingly, every state in the union, except Hawaii, produces at least some crude. Only two are dropping in production: Alaska and California. Coincidence?

The bad news is that most of CA's oil reserves are offshore on state lands and drilling there is under a "permanent" moratorium.

And even with its large production, CA only produces 37.4% of what it uses. The other 62.4% is imported. And contra Mr. Frish, only 10% is imported from Alaska, the balance from OPEC, specifically Saudi Arabia, Ecuador and Iraq. Why from there? Because California's clean fuel mandate discriminates against heavier crude stock, including its own. CA doesn't have a refinery shortage per se, it has a supply problem.

In 2007, CA spent $60 billion on oil imports. Sustainable?

Larry Wirth

And now I (and all of you) know why they would build a 10" gasoline pipeline to Hermosillo- California can't (won't)use the gasoline because it doesn't meet state standards.

This also kills Steven's notion of converting an existing gas pipeline to "petroleum products". It could only be used to ship crude and I doubt Texas is particularly looking to do that. Maybe a branch off the Keystone XL would do the trick, though.

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