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26 April 2016





George Rebane

Trump = [1190, 1270, 1220, 0.75]

Jo Ann Rebane

Trump = (1185, 1248, 1237, 0.6)

Bill Tozer

First post not mine. However, I am still doing the math on my fingers.

Patricia Smith

George, I would like to point out that even with all the data available, arriving at a delegate count is still an educated guess. You know how many delegates each state awards and the system they use to divvying them up. You have a variety of poll number showing who is leading the race and by how much. And still it's a guess as to the final outcome.

I bring this up to illustrate how impossible it is for me to supply you with accurate numbers that you request from time to time about the number of patients in Nevada County, the number of legitimate growers, etc. There is very little reliable sources where I can gather this information. Until this industry is regulated and taxed like other businesses, we have to rely on extrapolating info like how many patients have recommendations from local doctors? This is a number that can be determined. How many patients go to doctors outside of our area or don't have recommedations at all is an unkonwn. Even Sheriff Royal could only give you an estimate of the number of gardens in NC and he has no idea if they are (or were) compliant. I wish I knew the answers to your questons too!

Good luck with the delegate counting. I am totally disgusted with the entire system in both parties. Time to break away from both the Repubs and the Dems and start over.

George Rebane

PatriciaS 846am - Educated guesses are the final output of all predictions no matter how much technical development was used in their generation, and more so when technology (science/math) provide little relief. The MAB is a tool that allows one to provide an explicit expression of their uncertainty regarding a random variable like future delegate counts. We always go into the future with risk and uncertainty. Quantifying such uncertainty allows us to proceed with reason.

Yes, I would like to see us evolve into (at least) a four party system.

Russ Steele

Trump = (1200, 1260, 1238, 0.75)

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