‘The Russians did it.’ (updated 9jan17)

George Rebane

It turns out that you can fool most of the people, most of the time – a truth long known to politicians, lawyers, and journalists.

Yesterday DNI James R Clapper released ‘Assessing Russian Activity and Intentions in Recent US Elections’ dated 6 January 2017.  This 25-page report was supposed to supply the long-awaited back-up to the ongoing and hysterical national dialogue circling the notion that ‘Russia hacked Hillary’s emails and effectively used these to throw the 2016 presidential election to Donald Trump.’  In fact, much to the chagrin of Democrats and their lamestream media, the report does none of that.  Nevertheless, with stiff upper lip and all that, these desperate folk keep soldiering on for the simple reason that they have no alternative to explain away their political bankruptcy and journalistic corruption.

Here I give my take on the report, its wider background, and its reasonable import on our body politic as we prepare to inaugurate our 45^th president.  First let me posit that all this is happening in front of an audience that can correctly parse the spectrum of factors between ‘hacked emails’ and ‘Russia’s Election Interference’ about as well as they can distinguish the dots between ‘Climate Change’ and ‘Preventable Anthropogenic Global Warming’.

Let me summarize the readily apparent conclusion that our intelligence community, in coming out with this ‘Intelligence Community Assessment’ (ICA), is first and foremost attempting to cleanse itself of a bad reputation it and certain of its members (CIA, NSA, FBI, …) have garnered during the last few decades.  As a scrub brush for such ablutions, this report is useless at best, and to the well-read reader comes across as the latest attempt to bamboozle the population in the service of its political boss(es).

While no intelligent reader expects his country’s intelligence services to disclose their means, methods, and sources, this ICA does not even present a single product that one could agree required a multi-billion dollar national program to produce.  Its meticulously ballyhooed and bulleted conclusions range between high school level tautologies to information that has long been easily accessible in the public domain, and doubly so after advent of the WWW.  Along this vein, one immediately notices its lame attempt to cover up such a fraudulently puffed up pitch by counting the number of the 25 pages that really contain any of its claimed ‘meat’.

At first reading last night with my iPad in front of a cozy fire with Alexa playing its version of light classical muzak in the background, I took the notes you see below.  This morning I reread the report in Adobe Acrobat Professional and annotated it for your reading pleasure.  You can download this version here. Download ICA_2017_01_gjr  (Gott sei verdammt! The free Adobe Acrobat Reader mangles the carefully crafted and pithy annotations generated on its Acrobat Pro version.)  My notes and the annotated report should be consumed in the aggregate.  First the notes -

Page i:  “We will not make an assessment of the impact that Russian activities had on the outcome …”

• There is no mention or measure of the items/instruments/factors of Russia’s actually helping Trump or hurting Hillary.
• Did they uncover and release truth that hurt Hillary? Did they generate and release falsehoods about Hillary of which she was innocent?  No conclusions.
• Important to note that hackers did not need Russia or anyone else to authorize or enable the hacking of said emails.

Page iii:  “… influence campaign by serving as a messaging platform for Kremlin messaging to Russian and international audiences.”  What messages??  So what?

Page 1:  Putin’s public remarks about Trump & Hillary are of no import here.

Page 3:  “Disclosures through Wikileaks did not contain any evident forgeries.”  So truth was disclosed, else the parties would have demonstrated fraud to thereby discredit the lot of releases.

Page 3:  RT (Russian media outlet) admitted that it had received (not given) info from Wikileaks – “new leaks of secret information”.

Page 3:  “… Russian intelligence using hacked information in targeted influence efforts …”  No claim that these were products of Russian hacks.   (Hackers don’t need to be Russians or Russia’s agents.)

Page 4:  “… producing pro-Kremlin radio and online content …” that consistently cast Trump as target of unfair coverage by US media outlets “subservient to a corrupt US political establishment.”  Well, so also did all the conservative and right-leaning media in the US.  And it all happened in the public forum, here and elsewhere.

Page 8:  Example of public propaganda productions designed to serve Russia’s interests – i.e. anti-fracking to keep US energy production to a minimum thereby propping world prices since Russia is a big fossil fuel supplier.

[8jan17 update]  Here is how another commentary in The Daily Bell saw the report in a similar vein.

[9jan17 update] And here is how the lead editorial in the 9jan17 WSJ saw the report, again following RR's lead ;-)

Comments

[Gregory]

It's true... you can fool some of the people all of the time, and you can fool all of the people some of the time, but you can't fool Mom.

George, I agree with your understanding of the vacuousness of the report; more propaganda meant to lead the reader to nodding in agreement than a logical argument leading from facts to conclusion.

Variations on "trust us".

It may be Trump gets a real tactical gain out of the report getting leaked to the likes of the WaPo and NBC before it got to Trump. I fully expect that will get investigated, at least on or after 20 Jan.

[Bill Tozer]

Bypassing the Russian-gate story briefly to see a wider lens, if I may.

American-Russo relations since the Cold War: Trump does not sing from the Conservative Orthodoxy Church's hymnal , nor fit into the pews of the Moderate Elephants' digs.

We have never had a Presendial-elect as far as I can recall that came into office with a stated desire to have warm relations with Russia, or the USSR for that matter.

We have never had a President whose only experience is business. Trump is looking at Russia in a whole new light and believes there are things we can to together (ISIS) and cool out jets. Putin has a weak hand to boot. That is what I am curious about in the wider lense.

As far as the topic, no collusion found between any of Trump's inner circle or campaign and the Russians. No treason. But, if you want to push it, you can find actual evidence of a campaign colluting with a foreign gov't in the 80's. Not going there, it just another distraction. This will end up in another bi-partisan Blue Ribbon Commission of the like in 3 months anyway...like where it was going end up from the start...before political madness.

[Walt]

There is no pleasing you. What happened to all that hippy "coexist", and "lets all be friends" drum circle stuff? " We need to talk to our enemies". And now when you think Trump
is going to do just that, you turn a 180. How dare he try and cool down tensions. "O" and Co. and Progs did such a fine job.

[Bill Tozer]

Walt, we are the peaceniks now, Comrad. My, what a long strange trip this has been. Keep on trucking. Moon equipped.

[Don Bessee]

Peace through strength has always been the key to stability and prosperity. MAD had its benefits for stability but there has to be a visceral reality to the destruction part. Rebuilding the offensive capabilities of our military and alliances will give pause to the ones who have really benefited (too much scum to list) from 0's abdication of leadership and hate of America and its exceptionalism.
God Bless America!

[Russ]

The Diplomad 2.0 spent 34 years dealing with the Russian's and others who were attacking American interest around the world. Here are his views on the hacking:

Re the "hacking," The Hill has published the FBI/DHS report on the matter. There are lots of people much better equipped than I to analyze it, BUT let me just note that on reading that report, I don't think it really makes the case. There are a lot of assertions but no real proof. Well, first it's not clear what the case is it is trying to make. Is it trying to convince us that Russia spies on the USA? Hey, Elmer, does the sun rise in the east? There are some interesting expositions on Soviet/Russian espionage techniques and history, and some flat assertions, but nothing that comes near being a smoking gun. Maybe that's in a more classified version of this investigation, and we will just have to wait, but for now, the "proof" is rather skimpy if the charge is the Russians "hacked" our elections in an effort to throw them to one side. As the report itself seems to indicate, access was gained to the DNC computers via an "old fashioned" phishing scheme that got a senior official (John Podesta, it seems) to give away his password and other information to "hackers" who then used his email account to gain access to the DNC. That's kind of a standard, run-of-the-mill Nigerian-Romanian-Chinese-Russian, etc. method. Anyhow, read the report; those more technically savvy than I can try to convince me that the proof is there for the accusation of Russian state "hacking" of our election.

As I have said MANY times, I am perfectly willing to accept, if for no other reason, on the basis of my own nearly 34 years in the Foreign Service, that Russian state actors engage in espionage and influence operations against and in the USA, Canada, UK, Australia, Germany, France, Italy, and elsewhere. I also am quite willing to believe that this administration has proven notably passive and inept in responding to Russian, Chinese, Iranian, Cuban, and North Korean penetrations of our computers and nets, both public and private. I also must wonder if all this "tough" response would be happening if Hillary had won the elections? Kinda doubt it.

I agree, if Hillary had won the election we would not be swimming in this swamp.

[Bill Tozer]

Re 8jan17 Update:

From the Daily Bell commentary:

"The CIA like much else, is at least partially controlled out of London’s City, by the bankers there. These are the same central bankers that have installed monopoly cental banks around the world. The CIA, from what we can tell, at the top, has people who work directly with these London financiers."

From the Senate Minority Leader: Is that a threat?

“Let me tell you, you take on the intelligence community, they have six ways from Sunday to get back at you. So, even for a practical, supposedly hard-nosed businessman, [Trump] is being really dumb to do this.” —Chuck Schumer

Chuck Schumer (D-NY), the banking industry's most loyal friend in the Senate and the quote from The Daily Bell seem to say that Trump does not know who he is messing with. Just how big is The Swamp?
I will leave it at that.

[George Rebane]

BillT 930pm - Yes indeed Mr Tozer, that is the scariest part of all in that swamp. And they have 'dirty pictures' of everyone.

[Bill Tozer]

Dr. Rebane, I must be off track more than usual tonight because I take that as you mocking me. Heavens to murgatroyd! I am sounding like a paranoid conspiracy alarmist. I only listened to KVMR for 60 minutes today and it was all Blues, no commentary. I swear!

Ok, one thing about the Podesta "hacks" did make me laugh. The media has yet to focus on it and I am tired of waiting. Not only did the mysterious 'they' browse files from the DNC, DCCC, and e-mails from Hillary's campaign staff, they also grabbed the Dirt File (negative research) on Trump. Imangine spending all that money digging into Trump's second grade teacher's grandmother's maiden name and going to grab the file with devilish delight....only to find it gone, lol. Double lol. Actually, if there was real dirt on Trump's past, it would have been broadcast 24/7 on all outlets across the globe months ago.

Now to the point and topic. The "motivation" from a dissent's point of view. Never hurts to get out of the bubble and see it from another angle. Everybody has an opinion....and an agenda. Another artist painting the same old oak tree.

http://www.truthdig.com/report/item/the_real_purpose_of_the_us_governments_report_on_alleged_hacking_by_russi

[George Rebane]

BillT 1031pm - Sadly, I was not mocking you, nor would I.

[Bill Tozer]

Darn

[Bill Tozer]

Well, if the report is a matter of life and death, then you would think they would get readily available public information right at a minimum.

Seven pages of the report were dedicated to RT America, on which I have a show called “On Contact.” The report vastly inflated the cable network’s reach and influence. It also included a FEW GLARING ERRORS, including the statement that “RT introduced two new shows—‘Breaking the Set’ on 4 September and ‘Truthseeker’ on 2 November—both overwhelmingly focused on criticism of the US and Western governments as well as the promotion of radical discontent.” “Breaking the Set,” with Abby Martin, was taken off the air two years ago. It could hardly be tarred with costing Hillary Clinton the election.

[ScenesFromTheApocalypse]

"Seven pages of the report were dedicated to RT America"

That *is* odd.

Another take-

http://www.truthdig.com/report/item/the_real_purpose_of_the_us_governments_report_on_alleged_hacking_by_russi

[George Rebane]

Scenes 741am - I am sure you are aware that truthdig is a sponsored content provider on Russia's RT. Not that this discounts its entire message, but it does help understand why it highlighted post-USSR NATO membership of east Europe's countries which gives Putin angst. I haven't seen any other outlet bring up that factor in discussing the purpose of the report.

[Bill Tozer]

With all the actors involved in Russiagate (both foreign and domestic) and the highly charged political atmosphere (as one would expect after something as huge as a stunning upset in a contentious US Presidential election), it is rather easy to stray off into "She did it too" rehash the Cold War, foreign policy, spy vs spy, jump into the Great Divide, and fire up the Culture Wars into full throttle. With that said, I will try to focus on the report, just the report....the topic at hand.

No evidence that either campaign or candidate was working directly or indirectly with foreign agents with regards to Wikileaks.

No attempt to quantify the influence Wikileaks had on the outcome of the election.

No recommendations on where we go from here.

[Walt]

Drain the swamp? Didn't you hear? "O" has declared said swamp Federally protected wetlands, and critical habitat for endangered LIB minions.

[BradC]

Psychoanalyzation Mondays -

I am going with the notion that the Rooskies were happily hacking away and uncovered some stuff on Hillary and/or her supporters. I don't think Putin likes Hillary (he seems like he could be a macho, rooster type). He 'might' believe that Hill messed with his election by questioning the validity of his recent election numbers - so, The Putster decided to meddle with Hill's election. End of story.

But, the interesting part is the avalanche of minimization by the Trumpeteers. It is as if the Trumpsters (and the Tweeter-elect himself) feel threatened that the election will be considered invalid resulting in some sort of 'mistrial' - sort of like a mistrial due to jury tampering.

Trump won, albeit by a large minority. The coincidence of the the Wikileaks publications, poorly timed Comey statements, and lame security measures on the part of the DNC and individuals, including Hillary (and all her baggage), all contributed to her loss.

[BradC]

Alt-Left Olbermann has a (not harsh) viewpoint on Trump here. Spoiler alert - Olbermann thinks there just something 'wrong' with Trump,

http://video.gq.com/watch/the-closer-with-keith-olbermann-still-supporting-donald-trump-this-message-is-for-you

[George Rebane]

BradC 1046am - Russia's attempts should be minimized for all the reasons stated here and elsewhere. And Team Trump is properly responding because the Dems have several initiatives to do exactly that, threaten Trump's presidency by attempting to delegitimatize the election. The threats are real as witnessed by their attempt to do that on the floor of the Senate. It failed, but that will not be the end of it. I would pay closer attention to the goings on Mr Croul.

http://dailycaller.com/2017/01/06/paul-ryan-busts-out-laughing-as-democrats-protest-trumps-election-certification-video/

[Todd Juvinall]

Olberman ios well known for having his staff use a bedpan under his desk when he is on the air. I would say he has a mental issue.

[Todd Juvinall]

Hey Paul Emery, where's the beef on the Russians?

[Gregory]

"It is as if the Trumpsters (and the Tweeter-elect himself) feel threatened that the election will be considered invalid resulting in some sort of 'mistrial' - sort of like a mistrial due to jury tampering." BradC

No Brad, it's because the "Trumpsters" and other opponents of the Democratic machine recognize the antics of the poor losers in the Democratic Party intent on thwarting an orderly transition of power and authority from the side that feigned indignation when Trump refused to accept the fairness of the election weeks before it took place.

Hypocrisy On Parade.

I thought the spectacle of the uber-secret report being leaked to NBC before Trump was even briefed was one bridge too far; I'd be surprised if that isn't the steaming pile from the CIA that gets special attention when the "Trumpsters" start looking for the perpetrators of that insult. If the CIA can't find that leak, what good are they?

[George Rebane]

Gregory 1157am - Fully agree. Such leaks of government information and documents, especially on topics concerning sovereignty and national security, should be of prime concern to all, especially the issuer of leaked information. And it is appalling (at least to me) that the media, including FN, are not pursuing this specific issue, and continue to focus on hyperventilating about absolutely normal behavior of foreign governments who are not our friends. And definitely, if the CIA cannot find that leak, announce its discovery, and publicly plug it, then indeed they are not only incompetent but also illegally beholden to surreptitious and unidentified political leadership.

[Gregory]

Clapper will be retiring in something like 10 days, that may well plug the latest leak.

We know he's a liar when politics requires it, it isn't a stretch to consider he might be the leak.

[Bill Tozer]

Sounds factual:
"Russia clearly tried to meddle in our political system. No two ways about it. … [But] Russia didn’t tell Hillary Clinton not to go to Wisconsin or Michigan. They didn’t put the server in her basement or put the stuff on Anthony Weiner’s laptop. [Trump] won the election fair and square, clearly and convincingly, okay?” —Paul Ryan

Sounds like Dezinformatsiya:
“Colin Powell Can Be Elected President of The United States on January 6.” —a Huffington Post headline eventually deleted by the editors (but not before embarrassing themselves)

[Gregory]

Regarding Olbermann, I remember when he was but a second rate sportscaster on KNBC, the Los Angeles NBC affiliate. He's since morphed into a second rate political commenter.

One of his strangest tics I remember was his reporting on the Giro d'Italia, I'm guessing circa 1990. The leader of that celebrated bicycle race would wear the Pink Jersey, pink being the color of danger signs in the Alps, and Olberman was incredulous. Pink! Apparently the homophobe he now accuses others of being, he kept interjecting "Pink!" at random times for the rest of the program.

[BradC]

GerogeR@124pm - "Dems have several initiatives to do exactly that, threaten Trump's presidency by attempting to delegitimatize the election." I think your Paul Ryan link shows how 'not-serious' these supposed 'threats' are. Can you say 'Birthers'? How long was the future Commander-in-Tweet obsessing about that one? This is just more 'back at ya'' BS. The boot is on the other foot.

[Bill Tozer]

Dems are out of ammo. Lasted about as long Obama's farewell tour will last. No impeachment, no treason, no power, no recount, no stealing the election, no hope, no change, and they cannot do a friggin thing about it. Trump kicked their teeth out and now reality is hitting the toothless yap poodles. They only thing they can do is throw temper tantrums. Nothing new, that is all they ever knew how to do and they do it so well..

You see, we are not asking the Alt-Left if we can have our country back. We are telling you we taking our country back.

Why I spent 30 seconds listening to the toothless yap-yaps is beyond me. What a waste of time that was. Moving in and eat our dust.
Never get tired of winning. Tweet all day and all night for all I care, President-elect Trump. Drives them batty

[Don Bessee]

BT 539- 'now reality is hitting the toothless yap poodles. The only thing they can do is throw temper tantrums.' Yes, life has been really rough recently on PE's set. ;-)

[Bill Tozer]

PS:
https://www.facebook.com/RowdyConservatives/photos/a.217983685002343.55586.217926015008110/1000594110074626/?type=3&theater

[George Rebane]

BradC 456pm - I think you may be confusing 'serious' with 'foolish' - two independent notions both of which may concurrently apply. And that is exactly what went down on the floor of the Senate, serious but foolish.

[Bill Tozer]

https://www.facebook.com/UncleSamsMisguidedChildren.Net/photos/a.169953786533962.1073741830.169676909894983/612866925575977/?type=3&theater

Yeah, it's on topic.

[Gregory]

This just in... there's proof the Russians hacked the Superbowl.

[George Rebane]

Gregory 227pm - Keep us updated.

[Don Bessee]

Gregory @227- You have to take what Paul says with a grain of salt. ;-)