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29 May 2018


Bill Tozer

Well, while we are at it.......

Gun deaths per 100,000: 10.3
Prius deaths per 100,000: 14.5

Ok, what are the chances of a student getting killed by a Prius as compared to getting killed by a school shooter...or a gun off campus?

While we are at it, why don’t we ban all automobiles to stop drunk drunk drivers?


Actually, to be really really fair, the recent Texas school shooting don’t fit the narrative. The kid was under 18, so a background check would not have been necessary to prevent him from legally obtaining a firearm. The “child” was involved in school activities without any behavior red flags being raised, so the school behavioral health nurse would not have been alerted, neither did any fellow students notice any warning sign about “the child”. He was not a participant in the highly successful Promise Program. He did not use the horrid assault MS-13 or AR-57 rifle, a military style killing machine. His father was involved in his life. So, what is it in the child’s profile that should have raised a red flags and this tragedy could have been prevented???

By Jove, I got it!!! He appears to be a member of the dastardly Caucasian race, which is responsible for all the ills in our modern day society. The profile says white teenagers are school shooters. Ban white teenagers! Problem solved.

Now, back to solutions and our public schools’....er.......teachers unions wish list. It’s for our children.


Todd Juvinall

Just watched a debate on PC from early May in Toronto. Eric Dyson was on the left with a gal named Goldberg from the NY Times. Versus a gay actor named Fry and a Prefo from Canada. The left just babbled the BS of the left while the others tried to debate. Dyson, a black professor is so full of hate he ended up attacking the Prof as a mean old white man with white privilege. The huge audience did not like the personal attacks. Dyson is a jerk and is toxic.

Peter Van Zant

George: Almost any event compared to a large population will yield low probabilities. Chance, for me, being killed in an automobile by a drunk driver is small...very small. The chances that there will be thousands of drunk driver deaths in any year is very high. The chances that there will be x school shootings over the next year are high. And the family and society costs will also be high.

Bill Tozer

Good point Mr. Van Zant. Well, it’s good for our children to do math problems. They spend 16k/year to teach one 3rd grader in DC and they still can’t get the children up to 3rd grade level. Anything would be an improvement.
Walking home from school in DC is highly discouraged. And the media has a news blackout covering Chicago. It’s for the childrun. Perhaps they could do a math problem to find out what are the chances of being shot in the Windy City...or the City of Brotherly Love, or stepping on a hypo in our beautiful Sanctuary City by the Bay. A learning moment.


Bill Tozer

Ok, taking Mr. Van Zant’s point to it’s logical conclusion, what are the chances of anyone of our current BOS being arrested for drunk driving in a local public park? Let me run this through Common Core math. Number of parks, number of constables on patrol, number of drinks. Hmmm. About 20%., or one in five is the answer. Ok, what are the chances of a school aged child being killed by a current member of the BOS driving drunk in a public park? We will never know, I reckon, because the police neutralized the threat.

George Rebane

PeterVZ 940am - Peter, I believe you may have missed the point of my response to Mr Boardman's loaded recommendation on STEM education. However, while any such student deaths from mass shootings are a tragedy to the families and friends involved, their aggregate social impact depends strictly on the numbers, hence the probabilities, involved. When we ignore the numbers, we abandon reason for politically motivated emotion designed to impact the light thinkers of the land. While automobiles overwhelmingly kill more teenagers than guns, we do not react by seeking to ban autos from the land, and instead take the more reasonable response through driver education and punishing the law-breaking drivers.

If your objective is to maximize the number of young lives saved, then you would be wise to spend our limited resources on several other more obvious causes of teen mortality and morbidity. But I fear you and yours have another objective in mind.


"The chances that there will be x school shootings over the next year are high. And the family and society costs will also be high."

PVZ 940am

High, compared to what?

This is high-sounding nonsense.

jon smith

"...the more reasonable response through driver education and punishing the law-breaking drivers."

If the auto industry were the NRA: "Cars don't kill people, people kill people. So leave our cars alone."

Fuck that.
Nadar bolts, seat belts, child restraints, head rests, collapsable steering wheels, air bags, anti skid devices, safety glass. It isn't just driver and education law enforcement that have reduced deaths, the cars themselves have been made less dangerous.

Kind of like having a limited capacity magazine on a gun. For starters.


Starter guns only need to be single shot, "jon", I thought you knew.

The latest school shooting of note killed 10 and the kid only had a shotgun and a revolver. So much for the semi-auto and large magazine restriction crowd looking to fan those flames.

I'm going to guess that "jon" and friends don't care about people who have semi-auto rifles and pistols for self defense who, in the very tiny possibility in any one day that they will pick up their gun to defend themselves, will very probably not have a spare magazine. The person who prepares for mayhem can carry a bag full of 10 round magazines to the scene of their crime.


BillT: "They spend 16k/year to teach one 3rd grader in DC and they still can’t get the children up to 3rd grade level. "

My first inclination was to think 'no way'.

A few minutes with Google, and I'm seeing $29k-$30k per student in the DC system.

A couple of possible reasons. (1) The administrators and teachers are running a huge scam on the system (2) The students themselves are mentally deficit for some reason (of course our Lords and Masters send their kids to private school, potentially at lower cost).

Do the Green Libertarians have a (3)? I'm listening and would love to learn. Maybe $40k would be a better number?


The jon smith: "Kind of like having a limited capacity magazine on a gun. For starters."

Cool. I like playing the safety game.

Should older cars be on the road?
Should pickup trucks be legal for non-commercial use?
Should it be legal to refuse a vaccination for yourself or a child?
Should the county inspect all homes for electrical problems?
Should all homes be up to current code?
Should bars be open after 8:00PM?
Should alcohol be legal?
Should the speed limit be over 50 or so?
Should bathtubs be legal?
Should bicycles be allowed on roads?
Should adults be required to wear bicycle helmets?
Should stairs be allowed in homes?
Should cough syrup be legal?
Should swimming pools be legal?

George Rebane

scenes 124pm - That's the spirit Mr scenes, take us through all the possibilities of the 'safety game'. You've made an excellent start. After all, the progressives' motto here is that 'We promise enthusiastic regulatory growth until all risk is eliminated in society.'


GeorgeR: "'We promise enthusiastic regulatory growth until all risk is eliminated in society.'"

The more pure version of progressive thought is "We promise enthusiastic regulatory growth as long as it benefits me personally".

I've been enjoying viewing various city council meetings on youtube watching the Green Libertarians scratch and claw to not have homeless people moved into their area. It's my daily dose of irony.

Generally, I'd say that liberals individually are like extremely large companies as an ensemble, they are hell on wheels at using government to their advantage.

George Boardman

For the record, I'm a supporter of STEM education. Even if a high school student doesn't want to pursue a degree in any of those subjects, he or she should be required to take introductory courses that acquaint them with the basics of the subject matter.

Given your advocacy of STEM education and your own background, I was disappointed in your superficial analysis of the problem I posed. "More or less likely" to happen at any high school? Numbers don't tell the whole story.

For example:

--The vast majority of these mass shootings have occurred in suburban and rural areas. That suggests that you're more likely to get trapped in a mass shooting if you go to high school in Grass Valley than the Hunters Point section of San Francisco.

--I can't recall one of these shootings that involved a minority perp. The whiter the population, the more likely it is to happen.

--Most of these communities profess a deep commitment to the Lord Jesus Christ. Perhaps it's safer in a more secular community.

--The last two big shootings (Parkland and Santa Fe) occurred in states with lax gun laws, including requirements to keep guns in a secure place. Is that the case for most of the shootings?

These are just some of the factors that influence the likelihood a school will be involved in a mass shooting. I'm surprised you didn't dig deeper.


re: GeorgeB.

As a homework assignment, go through a list like this:


for the 2015 to present list and see if your theories hold water.

My guess is that you'll redefine 'school shootings' to suit your narrative.


K-12 is a bottomless hole for our society to throw money into.

No, it isn't a huge scam, but it is a huge screwup. It's what happens when borderline illiterate and innumerate teachers teach students who then barely graduate with loosened standards, get into a college, get a degree with a teaching credential and start teaching the kids the stuff they don't know. They have been doing their best.

This is what happens when successive distillations keep taking the lowest students off the bottom to become teachers.

Harvard's College of Education is "a kitten that ought to be drowned"
-A. Lawrence Lowell 1933, President of Harvard University, 1909-1933

Bill Tozer

Getting back to Mr. Boardman’s math assignment, I confess to being lazy and will let others speculate for me.

One in a million?

One in 2.25 million?

Surely even one such incident is too high, but with nearly 106,000 public and private schools in the U.S., there were shootings at only 0.009% of schools since December 2012. According to the National Center for Education Statistics’ 2013 “Indicators of School Crime and Safety” report, from the 1992-93 school year until the 2010-11 school year, there were between 11 and 34 homicides of youths ages 5-18 at schools each year (including attacks with weapons other than firearms), with an average of about 23 homicides per year. Comparing that to NCES’s enrollment statistics, about 0.000044% of public and private K-12 students were killed at school per year between 1992-93 and 2010-11. That’s about one out of every 2,273,000 students per year. By contrast, the odds of being hit by lightning in a given year is one out of 700,000 according to National Geographic.

Leaving our schools behind momentarily, what are the chances of moi being shot up by an active shooter?

Do the math. In fact, let’s do three maths.

First: incidents over time. 160 in 13 years. 12 per year. 1 per month. 0.3 per day.

Second: incidents per square mile (per year). 3,537,436 sq mi in the US. 12 incidents per year. That equals 0.00000339 incidents per square mile per year.

Third: victims per capita (per year). Approximately 313,000,000 Americans. Approximately 80 single-incident multiple victims per year. That equals a per capita involvement rate of 0.00000026 single-incident victimization.

In percentages, you have a 0.000026 per cent chance of this happening to you.

In other words, almost zero.


Pssst. Don’t show the kids this. Let’s let hem figure it out. A mind is a terrible thing to waste.

George Rebane

GeorgeB 153pm - Thank you for responding to my critique. And to respond to your latest, I'd like to point out that not one government agency, LE or otherwise, has stepped forward to make a case for ANY of your listed conditionals. Why do you think that is?

And you miss the mark completely when you claim "Numbers don't tell the whole story." Which story of your conditionals is not COMPLETELY DESCRIBED by the numbers. How you and your fellow liberals adroitly sidestep the numbers related to your analyses of and prescriptions for social problems is a topic much studied. The conclusions for such omissions is always the same - when the relevant numbers are brought in, they almost always destroy your case. Ergo, claim that numbers don't tell the whole story, and that your extra-quantitative apologetics contain more cogent and impactive factors that should dominate in devising a solution.

Bill Tozer

Well, my, my. I agree with Mr. Boardman. It’s those darn white rural podunkers and their gun grubbing crumb snatchers that are most likely to go postal in our public schools. Perhaps we should ship them off to private schools.


Well, looks like parents of school aged children out there are screwed?

25-30k/ per pupil,Scenes? Maybe we should toss more money that way and, of course, stop dissing teachers. I get it that the problem is much bigger than just the teachers. Teachers are just one leg of a three legged stool. But I do love sooooo very much that if we “just start showing the teachers more respect and stop bashing them, then the test scores will go up.” Much to ponder with that agrument.


"For the record, I'm a supporter of STEM education. Even if a high school student doesn't want to pursue a degree in any of those subjects, he or she should be required to take introductory courses that acquaint them with the basics of the subject matter."
-G Boardman 1:53pm

For the record, your superficial problem got the superficial treatment it deserved.

"STEM" as a rallying cry is wrong for education. If you want to be able to go to a good college and study math, science or engineering, you need to be facile with algebra in the 8th grade, 9th at the latest. Working backwards from there, you'd better facile with manipulating and reasoning with fractions by the year before. It takes time to build up the knowledge and ease with the subject.

With our multiple chances education system there really isn't anyone to tell you to give up... you might be able to lift yourself up out of an algebra-free rut after the 9th grade but it doesn't get easier with time.

STEM coverage in the schools is more oriented towards making cool looking stuff that show off what they've learned... without really learning much. If you want STEM, concentrate on Science and Math. Engineering is applied science and there isn't anyone in high schools able to teach it. "Technology" is typically watered down engineering.

Bill Tozer

Now Mr. Boardman, don’t pay Dr. Rebane no nevermind. I think you are on to something. Was not that kid with the opossum torture homemade video a person who resided in your neighborhood? Now, the only thing that comes close to “suburbia” around here is that part of North Auburn called Lake of the Pines. Hmmm. So, I would surmise that the chances of a school shooting (and corresponding shooter) are more likely to attend BR than, say, NU. Very interesting. Explains a lot. Fear is a corroding thread.


"Now, the only thing that comes close to “suburbia” around here is that part of North Auburn called Lake of the Pines."

Good point.

Is there some chance that the few bonafide good people, typically newspaper editorialists, who live in that area do so to help their neighbors behave themselves?

I mean, if we didn't have all those Xtian pink-skinned kids shootin' up schools, the editorialists could move back down to Salinas or Richmond where it's safe and all.

George Rebane

Just to continue the entertainment in a still serious vein, let's rethink Mr Boardman's proposition "--I can't recall one of these shootings that involved a minority perp. The whiter the population, the more likely it is to happen."

I submit that a more complete consideration will show that minorities also kill their classmates, and in greater numbers, right there in their own neighborhoods. Instead of experiencing concentrated and localized massacres in sparsely attended schools, they do theirs in a distributed fashion over space and time with much more horrific results. And this, of course, is another important tranche of the young killing the young data not collected by and made available by the authorities. Why, because liberals who govern these schools and neighborhoods don't give a big rat's ass about black or latino kids killing each other; it's only when white, preferably Christian, kids participate in massacres that draws the agenda-driven attention of the politically correct kind.


"I submit that a more complete consideration will show that minorities also kill their classmates, and in greater numbers, right there in their own neighborhoods."

Plus there's the matter of per capita vs. totals.

This reminds me of the old canard about "ALL OF THE MASS MURDERERS ARE WHITE GUYS" when it turns out that if you look at the data over time the most over-represented group is (quite surprisingly) Asian males.

If the required crime for outrage is "unloved kid who kills a dozen classmates with his parent's AR57", I'll grant Boardman's point, at least concerning ethnicity of the perp. If it's merely shooting in schools, I expect that he's dead wrong (so to speak), but I doubt he'd ever bother to look it up.

Todd Juvinall

Actually, GeorgeB has one thing right. The kids are murdering each other in droves in the cities, but they do it one by one. 5,000 murders in Chicago alone during Obama's run and he did squat. Yet he is GeorgeB's hero. Anyway school shootings amount to a small number compared to the kids in the hood.


"For the record, I'm a supporter of STEM education. Even if a high school student doesn't want to pursue a degree in any of those subjects, he or she should be required to take introductory courses that acquaint them with the basics of the subject matter."
-G Boardman 1:53pm

I'm just too gobsmacked by the idiocy of the statement of Boardman's, I need to take another swipe at it.

Introductory courses... like AP Calculus? AP Chemistry? AP Physics? AP Biology? maybe even the nearly useless AP Statistics class that is gaining popularity because it takes so little math preparation? No trig, no calc. Just Algebra I/II.

The problem is that what is tossed out as STEM (or worse, STEAM) glosses over the preparation needed for study at the college level. It's MATHEMATICS and SCIENCE. It isn't an "introductory class" to give you a taste of what you're missing.

High school graduation requires math and science, at a level attainable by most all students. That might be General Science I and II, or a college preparatory Chemistry and Physics. It will be something. It could be a Science Appreciation class, like the mathless Physics Bear River has taught in the past to freshmen because they knew they'd not have a class large enough to actually have a teacher for of a classic 12th grade physics curriculum. Or an "engineering technology" class with lots of playtime group work building robots for some competition.

No, STEM isn't some "other" class one can take to see how you like it. Like beginning band, or beginning chorus. Math is something you keep taking in every grade from Kindergarten to 12th grade. So are topics in science. STEM just means you kept taking it seriously.

STEAM got the 'A' added because teachers of the Arts wanted in. How about we drop STEM and STEAM, and just call it "getting an education"?

Bill Tozer

Continuing on with Mr. Boardmn’s Code Pink observation, if there are less white kids on campus, does the chances of being shot to pieces decrease in direct correlation? There is more than one way to skin a cat. Also ties in with your MLK quote on your “what are the chances” column and homework assignment.


Bill Tozer

Let’s talk about common sense gun laws, by a real survivor of the Parkland shooting, not some kid that hoped on his bicycle and raced to the school to grab the spotlight.


Account Deleted

from jonnie smith - "Fuck that."
Whatever turns you on, jonnie boy.
Your analogy is completely wrong. Fire arms are designed to do one thing perfectly. Fire the cartridge or shell and send the projectile off accurately. Vehicles are designed to carry passengers safely to their destination. Modern technology has enhanced both of those differing mechanical contraptions with a great deal of success.
If a fire arm is designed to project lethal fire power and that design is improved on, it would stand to reason that it would become even more lethal for it's intended means. A motorized vehicle would become potentially safer due to enhanced safety features. I do believe jonnie boy's sexual attraction to fire arms has rendered his brain to be some what impaired.
Modern fire arms are vastly more safe than modern vehicles no matter how you cook the numbers. If you want safety ubber alles, then I would suggest getting rid of motor vehicles. Or ladders. Or knives. Something like that.


toes 917pm

While I like Kashuv's writing better than Pigglet's, he's still a kid of about 16 channeling people with more experience writing and thinking. He chose a better ghostwriter or the ghostwriter chose him, that's about all.

Children are not founts of knowledge or wisdom.

Bill Tozer

Shooter profile:
I have been pounding on our medicated school shooters, but to no avail. Until I find out whether our not the Texas shooter on psych meds, I will say all the school shooters were put on head meds, meds that were/are never tested on minors or FDA approved for minors. This article hits the profile from another angle.


Bill Tozer

Boardman. Let’s look at the profiles to come up with an probabilities to your homework assignment. Like, that is what you really wanted, right? I question your motives, but let’s forge on.. . .

Until we find out that the Texas school shooter was not on head meds, then about 100% of the kids shooting up schools for the last 25 years were on psych drugs never approved for minors by the FDA nor ever tested on minors.

Interesting take from this link, adding video games to head meds for another deadly combo. That is about 100% of the school shooters since well before Sandy Hook or Columbine.


Bill Tozer


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