Ruminations – 23nov18 (updated 26nov18)

George Rebane

Don Rogers, ex-hotshot firefighter and now publisher of The Union, writes a good piece (here) in today’s newspaper in which he instructs readers about believing hasty predictions about 'new normals' of cold, hot, wet, and dry in California’s weather patterns.  He confirms what we have been preaching for years on these pages about wildfires (recently here).  Mr Rogers’ piece concludes with, “In any case, the path forward includes no small amount of smoke. The fires will burn, but we do have some choice about when. Our best firefighting, perhaps paradoxically, includes setting the forest alight. Basically burn now, when the weather's right, before we burn up later.” (also see 24nov18 update below)

For us history buffs, preeminent living war historian Max Hastings has produced another masterpiece – Vietnam, an epic tragedy, 1945-1975 (2018) - which may become the definitive history of that decades-long conflict.  I strongly recommend his entire oeuvre, and highlight two must reads – Armageddon: The Battle for Germany, 1944-1945 (2005) and Retribution: The Battle for Japan, 1944-1945 (2007) – that document the last years of WW2 in Europe and in the Pacific.  (Longtime readers know that I claim intimate knowledge of the contents of the former.)

‘A $15 Minimum Wage Goes National’ - Nancy Pelosi wants to boost the wage floor far higher than the historical average.  So writes Michael Saltsman in the 23nov18 WSJ.  What progressives and their communist brethren never seem to understand is that such wage controls – especially large ones like this $15/hr would be – always harm the workers and consumers, i.e. the economy.  If the central planners really want to shove more money into workers’ shorts, then why not raise the minimum wage to $100/hr or even $500/hr – then everyone would be happy dancing in the street (for about five minutes).  None of these leftists learn from history of how such merit-removing policies mangle markets – the prices of everything would increase accordingly – without providing any longer term benefits to anyone save the politicians who count on the votes of the ignorant.

[24nov18 update]  This RL Crabb graphic was filched from today’s copy of The Union where Bob is their duty political cartoonist.  I particularly enjoyed this edition of Bob’s work where he sticks his creative big toe into more artistic waters.  My hope is that perhaps he can ease off a bit from his (not so) ‘middle of the road’ observations of our politics, and offer us a richer sampling of his more philosophical and contemplative renditions.

The tragic Camp and Woolsey Canyon wildfires have made news and also a lot of fake news in the last couple of weeks.  A more measured view (here) of these disasters is available from Stanford University’s Hoover Institute, which in part reads -

An enormous debate has developed over the cause of both fires.  Outgoing California Governor Jerry Brown has loudly proclaimed that climate change deniers are “definitely contributing” to the onslaught of new fires. But the best evidence says otherwise. Global temperature increase has been nil over the last 20 or so years, notwithstanding the increased levels of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere. Similarly, the repeated claims that we have had more unstable global climate patterns within that period is likewise false. According to Professor David B. South of Auburn University, “data suggest that extremely large megafires were four-times more common before 1940” than today, even though CO2 levels were lower.

[26nov18 update]  Migrants now rushing our southern border.  Remember just a week or so ago these thousands of people were walking toward us over a thousand miles away.  It was supposed to take them weeks to walk to the border.  Then suddenly all kinds of transportation and logistical support appeared for the marchers.  Hard to keep arguing that all this was a spontaneous exodus from their home countries.  Now who provided the money for all this, and who is providing the political welcome into America?  This question is actually a freebie, since Ocasio-Cortez, the Dems' new ignoramus in Congress, is today publicly comparing this mass attempt to illegally enter the US to the Jewish Holocaust survivors' illegal entry into Palestine after WW2.

GM exits sedans, and plans to lay off about 18K workers in the US.  Decades ago the Rebanes could not figure out why any family would want to buy a sedan as opposed to a van or SUV or the station wagon of yore.  Sedans were such inefficiently designed vehicles, especially for a growing family.  Finally the entire country is getting the message as sedan sales are "sliding" industry wide in favor of pickups and SUVs.  For years now our stable has housed a van, SUV, and a pickup.  Hopefully, government mandated electric vehicle production will not prevent the return of those jobs as the car companies start producing more of the vehicles which the market actually demands.

Comments

[Gregory]

Regarding the $15 minimum wage per hour, it's about time. No one who does not have the skills and habits required to command at least $15 an hour deserves a job. Any job.

[Scott O]

Really, Greg? 15 an hour in downtown SF vs the same in podunk, nowhere is night and day. Abolish the minimum wage. A wage is a contract made between a buyer and a seller. The govt has absolutely no right on earth to dictate what that buyer and seller agree on.
Many teenagers come to the labor market without the high and lofty skill set you seem to find necessary as the floor for any employment, but at a lower rate, they are financially viable for the hirer and can certainly learn the habits and skills to equip them for other and better employment.

[Todd Juvinall]

The government should stay out of setting wages for anyone. Why if they have the power, they don't set it at $50 with benefits is a mystery.

The planet got colder the last two years but the NASA climate change yapping says it was hotter. And man did it.

https://www.investors.com/politics/editorials/climate-change-global-warming-earth-cooling-media-bias/

[Gregory]

ScottO, I pulled your leg so hard it done falled off.

[Robert Cross]

Investors.com. known to publish articles by "lobbyists and PR reps for right wing think tanks like the Heartland Institute and the Competitive Enterprise Institute the are pseudo-scientific propaganda". Articles stray "from the consensus of science in regards to climate change and they have made outrageous and false claims".. While economic and market related information is often factual, Investors editorials are "clearly a Questionable source with promotion of right wing conspiracy theories and numerous failed fact checks."

"The planet got colder the last two years". -- total bullcrap fabricated and fostered by the fossil fuel industry to protect their investment in carbon that is still in the ground. "but the NASA ....says it was hotter. And man did it". True beyond a reasonable doubt unless you have been politicized into stupidity, then you will believe anything that supports your point of view.

[Scott O]

Sadly, Greg - there are many out there that would seriously agree with what you jested.
Don't worry about my limbs - still attached and operatin' just fine, thanks!

[Scott O]

from Bobby - ""The planet got colder the last two years". -- total bullcrap fabricated and fostered by the fossil fuel industry to protect their investment in carbon that is still in the ground."
OK, Bobby prove it's total BS and prove it comes from the 'fossil fuel industry'. Whoever they are.
Just like that 'settled science' predicting the 'end of snow'?
Hmmmmmm?
And when is the Atlantic Ocean going to be sloshing down the streets of Manhattan?
Settled science said it was supposed to happen years ago.
Ooooops!

[George Rebane]

RobertC 1124am - Unfortunately Mr Cross, you again fail to provide a reasonable basis for your counter. Citing 'consensus science' does not lend reasonable support for any assertion. However, to make your point, you can cite a scientific journal where such claims are documented, or you can simply state that you are just citing yet another opinion. But just piling ad hominems on messengers you don't like doesn't make for good apologetics.

[Robert Cross]

scotto-- I don't have to prove anything to you, climate science has already proved beyond a reasonable doubt that human activity is accelerating global temperatures. That you choose not to believe the truth is between you and your conscience. This is probably why climate deniers are such nasty lot.. what they see in the real world doesn't jive with their political beliefs and creates cognitive dissonance and confusion in their brains and makes them angry because they cannot reconcile between the two and allow themselves, therefore, to believe lies and propaganda to achieve peace of mind.

[fish]

Posted by: Robert Cross | 24 November 2018 at 11:24 AM

......thanks bobsy!

[Todd Juvinall]

BoobieC is no diffeent than any other lefty true believer. No proof but lots of yap. You don't have diddly BoobieC, admit it. nd stay off the bottle this weekend.

[Todd Juvinall]

Come on BoobieC where is that proof bub.

[Gregory]

BobbieC writes "...[C]limate science has already proved beyond a reasonable doubt that human activity is accelerating global temperatures. That you choose not to believe the truth is between you and your conscience. This is probably why climate deniers are such nasty lot.. what they see in the real world doesn't jive with their political beliefs and creates cognitive dissonance and confusion in their brains and makes them angry because they cannot reconcile between the two and allow themselves, therefore, to believe lies and propaganda to achieve peace of mind."

This is a beautifully crafted statement of the state of mind of a Climate Change Believer. Jerry Brown thinks that skeptics will be all but extinct in five years.
"I think in less than five years even the worst skeptics are going to be believers.”
-Governor Jerry Brown, Deface the Nation, 18 Nov 2018

I'll take that on, Jerry B. What is wagered... how about the future of Progressivism vs classic liberalism? While the world's governments, feeding the research of IPCC-aligned 'scientists', have generated piles upon piles of paper that leads to the same conclusion James Hansen came to all by his lonesome and scared Congress into action, or at least scared journalists into action, thirty years ago last June.

While the rise in temps over the last century has been creeping upwards, how much of that is due to current temps rising and how much is due to records of a century ago to systematically being reduced is unclear... but an unmistakable cooling over the next five years would go a long way towards rehabilitating skeptics and scoffers of the Warmista ravings of the past three decades.

There are multiple lines of pre-postmodern science contrary to the IPCC brand hysteria that has been wholeheartedly adopted by the postmodern Democratic and Democratic Socialist party. It might even come on early enough to weaken DEMs in 2020.

This will be interesting.

[Scott O]

Yeah Bobby - that must it:
"what they see in the real world doesn't jive with their political beliefs and creates cognitive dissonance and confusion in their brains and makes them angry because they cannot reconcile between the two and allow themselves, therefore, to believe lies and propaganda to achieve peace of mind."
Since the AGW 'scientists' told me there wouldn't be any more snow in the north east, and since what I see is that they were wrong and since those same 'scientists' said water would be lapping up on the doorsteps of downdown Manhattan and it hasn't, then for some reason I have this 'political' belief that these good folk actually don't know what they are talking about.
In reality, Bobby's little rant about cognitive dissonance and anger is actually about the AGW alarmists. Their predictions have all gone flat so they are angry and lash out at folks who were never fooled into that bamboozle in the first place.
Have fun with your theories that are backed up with no proof.

[Scott O]

Meanwhile in Paris there are riots over the rise in fuel costs due totally to 'green initiatives'.
Macron seems to be having some trouble getting the rubes on board with lowering their living standard just so France can claim some kind of victory over a mythical beast.
Maybe some more Hollywood stars can fly over there in their private jets to calm the rabble down and 'splain things.

[George Rebane]

re RobertC 1155am - I don't know of anyone "angry" at those who express extraordinary fear of what they believe is preventable man-made global warming. If the skeptics show any anger, it is toward the process of unreasonable and unfounded regulations and laws passed to restrict our freedoms, damage economies, expand governments, and lower the general quality of life here and abroad. (e.g. witness the fuel riots in France)

RR is not a dedicated site for skeptics, but we from time to time I and readers to contribute arguments to counter the 'consensus science' that True Believers continually pass as gospel. However, from a scientific perspective preventable man-made global warming is still a politicized chimera that needs much more public debate and education.

[Russ]

Robert Cross@11:55 AM I did a climate change fake news analysis just for you:

https://sierrafoothillcommentary.com/2018/11/24/climate-change-fake-news-repor/

How, if you have some alternative charts you would like to post as a counter-argument, please post the links in the comments section on the Sierra Foothills Commentary blog post.

['''M''']

,,,George,,,you own 3 vehicles. Why wouldn't one of them be a commuter car -if you commuted???

[George Rebane]

M 1249pm - Depending on the "commuter car", that could be a possibility were I still a commuter. BTW, during our early years my commuter car was a 1963 VW bug (my third one), and our family 'sedan' was a 1966 VW microbus. We paid our dues, took the risks, and survived driving these practical moneysavers in heavy, highspeed LA freeway traffic. Then like many families, we moved into bigger, safer vehicles as our finances improved.

My druthers today would be to tootle around town in a high-end motor scooter or motorcycle, but my bride has never permitted me that pleasure, along with her nixing my skydiving and flying 'careers'.

[Bill Tozet]

Get a Cushman...if they are still out there. Or get an all electric car. An electric golf cart is cool in town if for no other reason you can park your electric go-cart at those electric car charging parking spots. Whether you need a charge or not, those spaces are usually the best parking spaces and you can park and walk around down for hours without putting quarters in the meter or even needing a charge....and the banana heads won’t say a word. How cool is that.

[Don Bessee]

Becoming the leader in energy production world wide has had its benefits for the real people. Subsidizing silicon valley millionaires and all the rich tesla buyers was never a good thing. They tried to force it our throats for 8 years. Will Newsome take your carburetor vehicles by fiat? (note its not a part of a bong)

Ask yourself this; Should there be a regional disaster, pick your version that required you to get far away from a big event fast. What would be better for your family, a vehicle that gave you environmental comfort in bad conditions and had a big range or a short range vehicle that had special needs?

;-)

[Gregory]

I guess Obama didn't buy that Volt... another Obama promise broken.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?time_continue=2&v=QXuqZcVB0Gk

Regarding George's VW bug commuter... Harvey Mudd's Bates Aeronautics Education Foundation had a flight school with sixteen students (eight primary, eight instrument) at all times, and two Cessna 172s with the latest radios... King KX170's and a King KT-76a transponder. Considered ancient at this time but was the cat's pajamas in the mid 1970's... and still legal to fly IFR now.

How to get students back and forth from campus to airport, Brackett Field, KPOC? The six miles was traversed with the third vehicle owned by the Bates Foundation... a 1950's VW bug that didn't even have a fuel gauge. Instead, it had a petcock valve, like motorcycles still do (even those with fuel gauges) and when it started to sputter, you turned the valve and stopped at a gas station along the route. Fuel consumption was carefully tracked with the fuel added and the odo readings that were recorded.

Every few years the bug would get an Earl Scheib $29.95 paint job. No matter how hard the Critchell's asked them not to, Scheib would paint the tires, wheels and lug nuts with the same paint, and paint over the body paint on the tires with flat black paint... saves labor that way.

[Bill Tozer]

59 bug was a 6 volt. Same with my 63 Bus. Had to drive with the brights on and nobody noticed. Low beam was too low at night. A 59 bug was my little sister’s first car. My older sister’s boyfriend had a clown car, the Metropolitan Nash. He would get on the roof and steer going down a sloped street as I sat inside to hit the brakes and gas when necessary. A car ahead on its time. Four guys could pick it up and carry it to the side of the road when it broke down. :)
———————+++++

The headline read “Electric Cars Sales Jump 29%”. The article clarified. Sales of all electric cars in Palto Alto are up 29% year to date as of July, 2018. Click bait.

[George Rebane]

My three bugs were 1956 (no fuel gauge), 1961, 1963. The '56 was totaled by a fraternity brother, '61 took me to Ft Sill, OK on active duty, and the '63 was bought new in Darmstadt, Germany when I arrived at my unit. It came home on a transport and was sabotaged by some anti-American along the way who poured sugar into the gas tank (my car had US Forces in Europe license plates). Big surprise when I picked it up in a Long Beach harbor parking lot, turned the key, and the engine went 'crunk!'. I got a new engine out of it, kept the car for ten years (it took our little family everywhere), and cried when the buyer drove away with it.

[Todd Juvinall]

My grandfather on my mothers side, George Head, bought th first bug in this county. 1956. He had it until he died in 1970. I lived with him and took care of him in his last year. I drove that car with 36 horsepower to Sierra College everyday for a semester in 1969. After that my sister drove it until it finally expired.

[Russ]

Robert Cross@11:55 AM

More details on the problems with the Forth Assesment are here: https://sierrafoothillcommentary.com/2018/11/27/4-problems-with-the-new-climate-change-report/

If you have some comments please post them, if you have some data please post the links to the data. Thanks!

[Bill Tozer]

“I can paint any car any color for $19.95.” Earl Schieb.
“I will eat a bug to sell you a car.” Cal Worthington.

The Bug. Everybody said the 67 Bug was the best. I will take their word for it. My 66 bus (and 63) was slow lane only up every grade and ran great downhill. Both were taken to a junkyardto be used as doghouses for the junk yard dogs and swapped for a 70’ fastback. Pancake engine, never needed to chain up. When St. Helens blew, the Fastback engine did as well...on a lonely ash covered road in Northern Idaho, which happened to be in the direct [wind] path of the ash cloud that turned a sunny day to something resembling a nuclear winter. In fact, some thought it was a nuclear fallout cloud, being out in the boonies and all. Looked more like a London fog to me. Damn ash got into everything.

An ole to the Bug.

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=Ctin21yrfcA

[Bill Tozer]

Opps. Make that a 70 Squareback, not fastback. What difference at this point does it matter anyway......