Rebane's Ruminations

Sandbox - 28jun19

[Facebook Inc. last week unveiled plans to launch Libra, a payment system it describes as a new “global currency.” It’s based on blockchain, the same technology that powers bitcoin, and is backed by real assets and pegged to stable government securities. Over two dozen corporate partners are on board, including financial companies MasterCard Inc., Visa Inc.,PayPal Holdings Inc. and Coinbase. Partners contribute a membership fee of $10 million each. Facebook’s goal is to line up a total of 100 corporate partners and $1 billion in assets. - 28jun19 WSJ]

The 2020 campaign – capitalism vs socialism (updated 3jul19)

George Rebane

[This is the addended transcript of my regular KVMR commentary broadcast on 26 June 2019.]

Today’s dramatic tack to the left by the Democratic Party and its legion of presidential candidates has brought capitalism vs socialism to center-stage in the public forum.  The Democrat candidates share a common vision for their fundamentally transformed America, but each of them has fashioned their own particular path to their promised land.  By this I mean that each has outlined a particular sequence of wealth transfer and confiscation policies designed to solidify support from their leftwing core and attract the maximum of mid-road and undeclared voters to the collectivist cause.

Their message is simple and effective – ‘we’ll give you a lot more free stuff, and tax the bejeezus out of the evil and greedy rich to pay for it all’.  After half century of controlling public education in America, we now have at least two generations of voters who know absolutely nothing about capitalism, and little or nothing about socialism.  What the Millennials and the lightly read have been taught is that socialism works – look at how we describe Europe.  Today capitalism for these Americans is akin to a dirty word that refers to a broken social order which allows the rapacious rich to rape the middle-class and the poor who have no opportunities to advance.  America’s history has been taught as a three century long dystopian trail of tears that has spread its misery worldwide.

Scattershots – 24jun19 (updated 27jun19)

George Rebane

The Left wants nothing measured the public reporting of which it cannot control, or that goes against their established narrative.

Our intrepid progressive pundit and Union columnist George Boardman is all exercised in his ‘Double dipping at the public trough, in the spotlight, and just the facts’ published in the newspaper’s 24jun19 edition.  There he leaps off the rails to rail those double dipping Dahles, while totally missing the definition of double dipping as it pertains to government payees.  Megan Dahle plans to run for her husband Brian Dahle’s recently vacated California Assembly seat since winning his seat in the state’s Senate.  If Mrs Dahle wins, she will become the elected representative from her district, doing the work of an assemblyman, and on her own merits and efforts earning that position’s pay.  That having a second member of the family also performing an independent job in government is in no way double dipping, save it serve a distinctly progressive political narrative.  Apparently Mr Boardman misses that significant nuance that spouses of elected politicians are also individuals with a duplicate set of rights to independently seek employment and recompense as they see fit.  Ah, the bespoke blinders of the Left.  (On the same op-ed page see also Manny Montes’ commentary that helps explain Mr Boardman’s values.)

In the 24jun19 update to my ‘Drag Queen Story Hour’ commentary, I posited the following observation about cultures.

Peace and prosperity were generally maintained as long as such a governed society’s culture was allowed to evolve without obvious interdictions by government.  It is easy to see why this approach to organizing societies worked as long as the dominant culture was sufficiently cohesive.  A little reflection reveals that culture is able to inculcate and control the most complex sets of human behaviors, and allow their natural expressions in new environments/situations without having to write down a single law or regulation.  Behaviors (acceptable and unacceptable) are learned in the family and in the village square, and ‘enforced’ by the culture’s collective – i.e. everyone.

In searching for exceptions to the above, the Talmud of the Jewish diaspora occurred to me.  The Talmud is an extensive collection (or collections if you consider separately its Babylonian and Jerusalem parts) of Jewish civil and ceremonial law along with its ethnic legends.  It comprises quite a collection of volumes that painstakingly detail a comprehensive body of behaviors and processes permitted and proscribed to practicing Jews everywhere.  And ‘everywhere’ here is the key idea.  After the Romans destroyed their Jerusalem temple in 70AD, the Jews were driven from their traditional homelands, and found themselves spread all over Europe and northern Africa.

While always seeking to stick together wherever they found themselves, they were necessarily separated and for centuries mostly out of touch with other Jewish communities.  So how to retain, practice, and promulgate the culture that defined them and their very Jewishness when so dispersed?  The answer was through the formalization of their culture in written form, which, as I have often argued, requires many volumes to record, study, and teach.  The Talmud is thus the exception that highlights and supports my dissertations on the function and efficiency of cultures in prescribing normative behaviors within coherent populations.

[25jun19 update]  The lamestream outlets are exorcising President Trump for his new sanctions against individuals in the Iranian leadership.  Specifically, vindictive opprobrium is dished out at Trump’s sanctioning Javad Zarif, Iran’s foreign minister and leading negotiator who has been our main point of contact in the sub-rosa diplomatic efforts between the two countries.  Their common wisdom is that now we have lost someone with whom we have been able to communicate.  What these pinheads and pundits miss is that the president has to include Zarif in the sanctions if he is to remain as our point of future contact.  Omitting Zarif’s obviously needed inclusion would have made him suspect among the raghead mullahs, and cost him his job or worse.

[26jun19 update] "Remarkably, a recent study cited in The Atlantic (gasp!) found that “the most politically intolerant Americans” tend be white, highly educated urban progressives. ... Long ago, religious zealots embraced feudal ideals, but increasingly it’s the ultra-secular progressives who reprise the role of Medieval Inquisitors."  Whoulda thought?  (H/T to reader)

[27jun19 update] Photo journalism at its worst as far as providing information to impact public policy - that is conveyed by the photo of the drowned father and his toddler daughter floating face down at the water’s edge (here).  This emotional picture drives all reason and logic from viewers’ uncritical minds; whatever narrative you want to connect with that image will now be taken as God’s truth about illegal border crossings, immigration, President Trump’s border security policies, … .  No one will consider factors such as the abnormally low death rate that is connected with illegal border crossings per se – illegal aliens die before getting to the border, and a few die after successfully entering the US, but given the circumstances, the death rate is mercifully low.  How do we know?  Had there been any previous border crossing deaths, crack photo journalists would have had such pictures posted and published in every imaginable outlet all over the globe.  Fortunately, that is not the case.  I do note that the father did a very foolish and deadly thing by stuffing his daughter into his t-shirt, thus guaranteeing the toddler’s death should he not be able to stay afloat with that ungainly load in the roiling waters.  In any event, now we are guaranteed another spate of public policies based on emotion and the absence of reason.

Democrats continue to dramatically disrespect and discount the intellect of their base and those voters they desire to attract.  A particularly specious attractant their presidential candidates are using is their promise to forgive student debt.  They are betting that their supporters will be like the now-infamous video clip of an Obama voter who believed that all the promised goodies she received would be paid for out “the President’s stash”.  OPM continues to be the salve Democrat elites will use to fix everything that ails us if you just give them your vote.  Michael Solon in the 27jun19 WSJ adds to the obvious when he writes - Debt forgiveness punishes those who did the right thing, made sacrifices, and acted wisely and frugally, as well as those who simply didn’t have the opportunity to go to college. Isn’t this the sort of private gain at public expense that people on the left claim to abhor? … Such forgiveness would also eliminate a quality-control device that drives students to ensure their investment can be monetized to cover their costs. A student who borrows must make sure his future earnings will be enough to pay off the loans. If that incentive disappears, with free debt or free college, the graduate and the nation would suffer economically.  (Also see my ‘Student Loan Scam Solution’)

Dropout Derby Updated 23 June 2019

George Rebane

I don’t know how much of this piling on of Democratic presidential candidates will go on, but that 23-member gaggle just got two more wannabes to join the race.  Talk about a snow ball’s chance in hell IMHO.  Nevertheless, I am adding #24 Mike Gravel and #25 Joe Sestak, with indicated ID numbers to the list of 23 candidates shown in my original 5jun19 Dropout Derby post (here).  I’m not sure that either of them will do much as candidates at this late date – the debates start on 26 June – but I’ll continue to accept new and updated lists until the first dropout bites the dust.  Please submit them in the vertical list format as you did before.  Thanks.

Trump, Turing, and the RAF

George Rebane

Regarding the content and direction of his message to voters, President Trump can learn a thing or two from Alan Turing, who is considered by many to be a sanctified founder of computer science and machine intelligence.  Turing was also credited for being the technical head of the British team at Bletchley Park that broke the back of Hitler’s Enigma crypto-communications system. But few people know that Turing also did the RAF a strategic service when in 1941 he was asked to recommend the placement of armor on the RAF’s Spitfires and Hurricanes which were suffering unacceptable losses at the hands of the Luftwaffe and while flying through German flak.

Turing asked to see the data on the damage to the returning RAF aircraft, and also the existing plans to place armor on the fighters.  The prevailing RAF wisdom called for armoring the parts of the airplane that suffered more hits.  After some thought and a bit of analysis Turing recommended placing additional armor under the skin where seldom was found a penetration on the returning fighters.  Astonished, the RAF mavens demanded an explanation for such an outlandish recommendation.  Turing’s answer was simple.  The hits on the aircraft would be pretty much evenly distributed from their air combats and AA barrages.  On the returning fighters there was a consistency in the areas seldom hit.  So Turing reasoned, correctly, that those planes which suffered damage in the seldom hit areas were the most likely to go down; ergo put the extra armor there.  The RAF’s resulting epiphany had them do exactly that, and the survival rate of the Spitfires and Hurricanes improved markedly and immediately.

What’s the connection to Trump?  Well, in his public and campaign pronouncement the president continues armor plating his monologues where he least needs them.  His core supporters are not fragile and brittle, threatening to abandon him at the first hint of his reducing their daily allotment of red meat.  They are exactly the opposite; his core is extremely resilient and strong; they have no Plan B save Trump, they have nowhere else to go.  So Trump doesn’t need to spend all his valuable air time bolstering his core, at this point they are bullet-proof.

What is required of him is to armor plate the sides of his ideological corpus with appeals to the cohorts of voters he still needs to attract.  And they require a totally different kind of message that does not recount the history of progressive atrocities so pleasing to his core.  He needs to tell those he seeks to attract of his plan forward.

The armor plate there will be made up of a description of Trump 2.0 with plans for the next stage of tax reforms, of a new list of judges and justices, of new term limits initiatives, of block grants to states for food stamps, Medicaid, housing, etc, of new initiatives to continue draining the swamp, of bipartisan justice reform to eliminate “over criminalization” and asset forfeiture, of new infrastructure projects, of school choice for parents, of solving the ideological train wreck in higher education, of outlining his existing plans to expand STEM education and vocational training programs.  This list goes on.  There’s so much that he can say to attract the undecideds from all sides, and put on the needed armor to deflect the barrage of slings and arrows against these initiatives from his enemies who have nothing more to offer than their frenetic ‘Never Trump!’ exhortations. 

‘Drag Queen Story Hour’ (updated 24jun19)

George Rebane

Yes, that is the advertised name of the event in public libraries, including our own, during which a man, who dresses and wears make-up to look like a woman, will gather children ages 3-8 around him and read them stories.  Our 21jun19 Union reports (here) on the program and the community’s reaction.  Therein we hear Supervisor Heidi Hall extoll of overwhelming public support for the program, and assert that “naturally open and curious” children in that age bracket will be “better off” when they “see that the world is a big place with a lot of variety.”  And some supporters even feel that such a ‘flaunting display of sexuality’ will be of special benefit to young boys who “could use a little bit of help in growing up and not being jerks.”

Here I want to record my reaction to this most visible evidence of the recent years’ rapid transformation of what was our culture.  It has been a long-enduring intention and objective of our country’s progressives to convince Americans that what we formerly considered as aberrant should now be seen as just another aspect of an accepted and embraced ‘normal’ in our society.  In this case, we should not look askance, let alone discourage, a young boy traipsing around in his mother’s dress and heels.  And even more so when he wishes to expose this different mode of expression on days he goes to school wanting to feel like a girl.

Ruminations – 22jun19

George Rebane

Another feather in the Millennials’ intellect.  They are having a hard time finding places to live – buy, rent – due to the housing shortage and sky-high rents.  The cause, invisible to them and their progressive mentors, is nothing but governments at all levels doing their best to regulate open market housing development down to a politically correct trickle.  And these dummies keep voting for Democrats.

Liberalism isn’t what it used to be.  We conservetarians have known that for some years now, but things are really hitting the fan when liberal national and local columnists are beginning to notice the Democrats’ rush to socialism, and then starting to practice the organizational rites of collectivists in herding their own.  These matters are explained by Michael Blechman in the 21jun19 WSJ and our own Darrell Berkheimer in the 22jun19 Union.  Meanwhile the local know-nothing lefties continue their vehement denial that they are goose-stepping to Marxism.

Wind and solar energy costs continue to decrease, but making that electricity cost competitive requires upgrading our power transmission grid with new lines that can take the energy from where it’s generated to far off places where it’s needed.  Guess what’s standing in the way of building these power lines? – you guessed it, government.  As per one of the most effective Rebane's Rules is still – if society has a problem, government is the cause until proven otherwise.  (more here)

Progressives celebrate prohibitive usage of public properties.  I had a bit of schadenfreude noting how our leftwingers view the existential takings of public lands from the people by progressive governments implementing Agenda21.  These mini-minds admonish those of us complaining of increasing restrictions and costs to use such properties as opposition to the ‘people’s ownership’ of public lands.  The designation and then restriction of public properties usage has been the hallmark of socialists cum communists.  The Left has never recognized, let alone acknowledged, that you own something only to the extent that you can dispose of it as you wish.

Sandbox - 22jun19

[Now that President Trump has revealed that he does incorporate reasoned decision processes and make prudent decisions about engaging US forces in response to abundant provocations by murderous dictatorships, I wonder if the Dems will allow their minions to hear any of this on the media.  One can niggle about whether he should have revealed how the latest all came about.  gjr]

Rich Ulery – CA escapee writes

[Rich Ulery was a longtime resident of Nevada County.  As a professional realtor Rich found time to give generously to the community through various leadership positions he held in civic organizations.  He also served as the chairman of the NC Republican Central Committee.  Rich and his bride are among the great exodus from California, having pulled up stakes and moving to Arizona last year.  I post Rich’s email as received by permission.  gjr]

Hi George,

I read that Nevada County supervisors just approved the 2019-20 budget of $258 million. While I understand the difficulty of comparing two different county budgets in two different states, I do find it interesting that Pima County, Arizona is wrestling with the approval of its $1.4 billion budget. Pima County has slightly more than 10 times the population of Nevada County, meaning that it costs Nevada County taxpayers almost 2X what it costs Pima County taxpayers to operate the county government. 

Certainly, the impact of Federal and State mandates and differing demographics will pollute this comparison. There are also cost of living considerations, although I will assure you that Nevada County COL is not double Pima County -- not even close. I will also assure you that Pima County has negligible unfunded pension liabilities. I suspect Nevada County is still hovering close to $200 million.

I'm not sure what conclusions, if any, to draw from this, but I found it at least intriguing.

Rich Ulery

 

Sandbox - 17jun19

[I've been mulling over the utility of these sandboxes again.  More and more they have become the repository of tripe, with interesting threads and tidbits thrown in by readers who occasionally demonstrate that their abundant acumen lies mostly fallow.  I wouldn't mind it if some of the other posted topics that interest me would get more discussion, but too many of them go over with the existing cohort of commenters like a fart in church.  Many of the interesting emails on my topics come from readers who apparently don't want to join into the online fray.  So I keep asking myself, why do I host these sandboxes of scurrilous shit-flinging.  No good answers have risen to the surface.  Thoughts?  gjr]

When will the bull run end?

George Rebane

We are now in the longest bull run in the history of America’s security markets. The nearby figure filched from the 15jun19 WSJ provides some perspective.

The question on everyone’s lips is when will this bull run end. As readers know, I’m a semi-retired successful entrepreneur and capitalist who has managed his own securities portfolio for decades, has recently focused on financial engineering, and still enjoys inventing and coming up with new squigglies in that field. One of my recent contributions has been the extension of Gott’s theory that probabilistically treats the future termination of minimally known processes. This extension was described here in – ‘…, and this too shall pass’ - on 10 November 2014.

Well, it turns out that stock market bull runs are exactly the kinds of minimally known processes that succumb to the expanded R-G theory – all we reliably know about the bull market is its current age. So we can now ask more interesting questions such as, ‘What is the probability that the bull market will end in any future quarter (three-month period) starting now?’

The answer to that question is shown below for the next couple of years.  The blue dots/line indicate the diminishing probabilities that the bull will end in the quarter starting then, and the red dots/line indicate the growing probability that the bull will end sometime between now and the date shown.  (click on figure to enlarge)

Should there be more astute investors reading this, a natural extension of the above question is ‘How can we update such a probability when later we get some new information that bears on the markets?’ The good news is that this question can also be answered by using a form of the Bayes formula in which the then computed R-G probability serves as the ‘Bayesian prior’ from which to calculate the new (posterior) probability of the process about which we now know more than its age. The Bayes formula (described here) should be used thereafter as more pieces of relevant information are obtained. Fun stuff if you’re a bettin’ man (or woman).

Scattershots – 14jun19 (updated 20jun19)

George Rebane

Proto-socialists on parade.  I noticed in the 14jun19 Union’s lead op-ed another example of a good-hearted, light-thinker wailing about our country’s unequal distribution of wealth, and its pitifully inadequately small government.  A Ms Becky Goodwin laments that no “millionaire” attended her kids’ college graduations to pay off their student loans, and why should such largess be a sometime thing instead of a universal benefit across the land.  She gives no evidence of understanding how such inequalities contribute to the overall wealth and weal of a nation.  As a devoted leftist, she eschews private charities and wants all such benefits to come from a much larger government that gets such monies from taxing the bejeezus out of rich folks who just happened to belong to what was known as the middle class (more here).  The country is chock full of these proto-socialist Beckys who deny the label but would eagerly vote for every Bernie, AOC, and Green New Deal that comes their way.

Growing populism and middle-class anger.  If there’s any hope for liberal governments, then it may well begin with what VDH summarizes in his ‘Why Are the Western Middle Classes So Angry?’  He outlines six “gripes” that are also part of RR’s mantra –

• Illegal immigration and open borders have caused institutional chaos and cultural compromises – e.g. multicultural identity politics.
• Globalization that has enriched Western elites who have “outsourced, offshored, and ignored their own industries and manufacturing.”
• The viral explosion of unelected bureaucrats at all levels of government consisting of sinecured, feedback-proof regulators, planners, auditors, inspectors, and adjustors.
• The global lamestream media reaching and indoctrinating billions rather than practicing what was known as ethical journalism.
• The post-educational academia that now functions as a “shrill agent of cultural transformation … charging more for less learning.”
• “Utopian social planning”, a la Agenda21, that has “increased housing, energy, and transportation costs.”

VDH concludes that “because elites have no answers to popular furor, the anger directed at them will only increase until they give up—or finally succeed in their grand agenda of a non-democratic, all-powerful Orwellian state.”

Who ‘Deserves’ to Go to Harvard?, asks our favorite Heather MacDonald of the Manhattan Institute (see also here).  This paragon of academia, that enjoys a $39,000,000,000 endowment made possible only through the largess of western capitalism, is now teaching its students that, in fact, capitalism contains “systemic inequities”, and the “capitalist ethos” is false because it teaches that “we deserve to win because of our skill, our hard work, and our contributions.”  Not at all, maintains Dean Rakesh Khurana, because in reality capitalism is a zero-sum game that rewards its players simply on the roll of Fortuna’s dice – remember “you didn’t build that”.  Khurana most recently disseminated this blather at Harvard’s commencement in a speech which pointedly ignored that his “parents emigrated to the U.S. from India, one of the events leading him to conclude that at least 85% of his current status is due to circumstances beyond his control. His parents presumably came to the U.S. because they saw opportunity, not “systemic inequities.” That opportunity arises from Western civilization’s accomplishments: the rule of law, property rights, freedom of expression and inquiry, and the relative absence of corruption—all matters about which Mr. Khurana was silent. This civilizational inheritance allows social mobility and wealth creation unimaginable in most of the non-Western world.”  Read MacDonald’s article for the full story.  (H/T to correspondent)

‘Socialist’ Nordics are moving toward private healthcare – what a revoltin’ development!  As we have reported for years, free healthcare is unsustainable, and its dive into the mud is slowed only by providing fewer and slower services.  The answer to it is - seatbelts please - private healthcare funded through private health insurance.  Daily Signal reports that quiet trend has been going on for years with increases in such insurance purchases by 7% of Norwegians, 4% of Swedes, and leading the way, 22% of Danes who have been able to augment their ‘free’ healthcare.  A good piece, that covers what is offered to whom, when, and for how much in various countries our socialists are trying to emulate, is detailed here.

[17jun19 update] Our broken Constitution and legal system.  SCOTUS upheld the cynical double jeopardy provision that our Constitution specifically prohibits.  The Daily Caller reports,  “The Fifth Amendment’s double jeopardy clause prohibits multiple prosecutions for the same offense. An exception to this rule called the separate sovereigns doctrine allows state and federal governments to bring successive prosecutions for the same crime. Monday’s decision leaves the doctrine in place, meaning any person Trump pardons remains exposed to state prosecutions.”  The only reasonable conclusion here is that our Constitution does not apply equally to the federal government and those of the several states.  The ‘separate sovereigns doctrine’ and the entire quagmire of a sub-rosa administrative law legal system give continued evidence that our legal system is both broken and corrupt.

Cap & Trade slush fund.  Years ago when CO2 cap & trade was first proposed, I and my fellow climate change skeptics predicted that such monies would soon be used for all kinds of other progressive vote-buying give-aways by Sacramento.  Well, that day has arrived (more here).  The scumbags in the state legislature, who have claimed CA is flush with cash, can’t hide the truth any longer and have to go after money wherever they can find to fund their follies, or just to keep minimal government services going.  RR readers, of course, know what the response of the local lefties was to such predictions. (H/T to reader)

[20jun19 update]  My new favorite communist is Umair Haque. I have reported on his virulently anti-American essays before.  This prolific, yet amazingly ignorant, ultra-left ideologue is published regularly on Medium.com which is an outlet primarily by and for Millennials, and therefore deserves a regular look-see by those seeking to keep up on their thought and sentiments.  Umair’s (that’s how he signs himself) latest mind bending contributions are ‘(Why) There Was No Jackpot at the End of Capitalism’s Rainbow’, ‘The Pattern of the 21^st Century is Predatory Collapse’,  and ‘The Soviet Union of Capitalism’.  Enjoy your visit.

Soaking the Middle Class

George Rebane

[This is the addended transcript of my regular KVMR commentary broadcast on 12 June 2019.]

By this time we have all heard the nearly two dozen Democratic presidential candidates promise Americans so many free things we’ll get that most of us have lost track of all the goodies coming our way when one of the newly declared socialists replaces President Trump.  Let me just recount a partial list to get us all on the same page, because I’m going to talk about paying for all the free stuff.  We are promised Medicare for All, free college, forgiven student loans, national job guarantee, paid family medical leave, guaranteed national income, and, of course, all the things in the Green New Deal.  There is more to the list, but I think that these are enough to give the flavor of what we all are encouraged to expect after 2020.

What no one wants to talk about is how the coming workers’ paradise will be paid for.  The few candidates who dare to venture there give short answers that can be paraphrased as, ‘well, we’re gonna tax the bejeezus out of the corporations and the rich, and make them finally pay their fair share’.  And this usually brings out a sigh of relief from the light thinkers in the middle and lower income classes – ‘we’re gonna get all this free stuff and other people will be paying for it, where do I sign?’

Those requiring more meaty answers are assured that we will follow the European model, and everyone knows that they’ve cracked the code on how bigger governments are really the source of the people’s succor and largess.  However, that’s not the case when we look at their data from the EU and OECD countries.  There we quickly find that 1) they get a lot less than our Democratic candidates promise, and 2) the money to pay for it comes from the middle and lower classes, for the simple reason that the rich don’t have enough loot to foot the bill.  And there’s even a more sinister method by how the taxes eventually get raised on everyone.  The entire story with lots of numbers, charts, and graphs unfolds in the recent Heritage Foundation paper, ‘A Progressive Road Map for Soaking the Middle Class’ by Adam Michel.

Michel summarizes his research with – “Taxes on the rich cannot raise the necessary revenue to fund large European-style welfare states. If left on the current trajectory, U.S. government expenditures will require large tax increases on middle-class Americans. The current progressive agenda to further increase spending on health care, education, environmental policy, and income supports will require even higher taxes on a larger share of taxpayers. If America’s spending continues to look more and more like that of Europe, U.S. tax policy will also need to shift. In European countries, lower-income and middle-class taxpayers pay an average marginal wage tax rate of 49 percent on income above $37,000 a year, and an average value-added tax (VAT) of 20 percent. Those same U.S. taxpayers face a marginal wage tax of 32 percent and an average sales tax of 6 percent. The only sustainable way to avoid a high-tax American future is to reduce the growth rate of federal spending.”

For those still in terminal phases of denial, consider that our federal spending has been growing faster than the economy, tax revenues, inflation, Americans’ wages, and savings.  There is no alternative other than taxes have to be raised to European levels to pay for European size governments and spending.  And as Michel shows from EU and OECD data, that means tax bills will have to be raised to a minimum of three times for everyone – no one, rich, middle, or low earners will be spared.  Everyone will pay because at that level of proposed spending we will have run out of other people’s money.

The Democrats’ proposals will cost a conservative $50T over the next 10 years, more than doubling the current $4.4T annual federal budget which is already one-third funded by debt.  The tax implications are so horrendous that no one on the Left wants to talk about it as we witnessed in this week’s Democrat controlled House Committee on the Budget, which pointedly refused to consider any discussion of where the money would come from for all the things promised in just the Green New Deal.  My recommendation is that you get some answers to these questions before you vote in 2020.

My name is Rebane, and I also expand on this and related themes on Rebane’s Ruminations where the addended transcript of this commentary is posted with relevant links, and where such issues are debated extensively.  However, my views are not necessarily shared by KVMR.  Thank you for listening.

[Addendum]  To put some meat on the above arguments.  Here are a couple of graphics illustrating the data from Adam Michel’s paper.  The first shows how much of each nation’s GDP is made up from the total tax burden its government imposes on its citizens.  The reason for America’s high ranking in most economic metrics that bear on people’s QoL should be clear.  There’s a reason why people from all over the world continue to risk life and limb to get into the United States, a reason that is totally, and I do mean TOTALLY, lost on our Left.  (Perhaps promoting policies to make us into a second rate country is the Democrats’ new stealth immigration policy that will then dramatically decrease the pressure on our borders.)

And here’s a compendium of more detailed albeit complex graphs placing the US relative to the EU and OECD countries.  It shows how tax revenues are spread over the spectrum of the countries' wage earners through the marginal rate burdens put on earnings.  It should dispel notions that all the socialist goodies currently in the EU, and promised in the US, are paid for by everyone, and not restricted to monies collected from the socially unjust rich and corporations.

The point to focus on in the above graphs is that the Democrat candidates want to put America right into the middle to upper end of the groups of blue dots representing the EU-OECD countries.  Check out the new tax rates that would apply to ALL our wage earners, and the resulting growth of government to absorb and redistribute the larger share of our nation's GDP (from the first figure, we are now only at the 27% of GDP level).  Does anyone really think that such a massive hit will not put brakes on our economy with the resulting impact on all our lives and motivation to take investment and entrepreneurial risks?  Look to Europe for the answers.

America’s politicians of all stripes know that Americans are overwhelmingly innumerate – they ‘don’t do numbers’.   Data such as presented above make no never mind to the overwhelming share of our citizens who, today more than ever, are focused on polarizing one-liners for their understanding of public policy proposals.  That is why the Democrats have no problem promising unattainable ‘free’ government benefits after they are elected to office.  The tools to make discriminating decisions on such matters were removed long ago from our public educational curricula.

Sandbox – 12jun19

[It appears that there’s not much else happening in the country or the world to interest our commenters who are locked in a pitched battle debating the deeper meaning of poll and Nevada County vote count percentages all guaranteed to rivet the attention of RR’s other readers.  gjr]

Is Nevada County’s Broadband Leadership AWOL?

Russ Steele

How embarrassing to have a nationally known industry observers conclude that political leadership in your community is an allusive mirage when it comes to building out critical broadband infrastructure.  And, then publishing the details in a well-received book. 

First, these leaders do not seem to grasp the economics of having robust broadband (BB). They do not consider high-speed Internet as one of the essential infrastructure utilities such as water, power, sewer, and transportation. Broadband has gone from nice to have to must-have status. Local leaders still think broadband is nice to have-not critical economic infrastructure. 

Yes, Nevada County’s Supervisors and City Council Members supported Spiral at the CPUC meetings, but only after a significant bit of cajoling by local BB entrepreneur John Paul and some encouragement from SEDCorp's Brent Smith.  As reported here previously, Susan Crawford, an independent observer, did not find much evidence of strong community leadership:

"Laissez-faire is not working for rural America, particularly in areas like Nevada City/Grass Valley where the local authorities are uninterested in intervening to ensure that their people have communications capacity."

". . .one of the key reasons that both Greensboro and Grass Valley/Nevada City are making such slow progress toward any flavor of publicly oriented Fiber is that there is no prominent public leader willing to stand behind it."

Scattershots – 8jun19 (updated 11jun19)

George Rebane

California’s homeless population continues to grow; it now exceeds 130,000 and is heavily concentrated in metropolitan areas like LA, the Bay, and Sacramento with smaller scale infections even reaching rural counties like our own.  According to the feds, CA is now also #1 home for those without a home, and growing.  And the big surprise by our leftwing politicians and bureaucrats is that they can’t figure out why these numbers are going up given all the public monies that have and are being spent on welcoming benefits to CA’s indigents.  WSJ’s Alejandro Lazo describes the current situation in ‘Homelessness Grows in California Despite New Government Spending’.  The answer to this apparent conundrum is beyond simple – the homeless of the country are infinitely smarter than the double dummies who make up our electeds and bureaucrats in Sacramento.  If you’re homeless, or illegal, or on welfare, or a criminal, or …, why not head for the Idiots Paradise that sanctifies, succors, and salutes every kind of person whose vote can be bought with monies taken from the state’s well-to-do and remaining middle-class wage earners?

The Dems are pulling in the big bucks from the country’s corporatists. Companies like Google, Amazon, Facebook, … are giving tens of millions to progressive candidates in hopes that they won’t get hurt too badly in Washington's growing anti-trust sentiment that threatens to break up the big guys.  The Left’s complaint is that open markets are not working, capitalism is broken, and Big Brother needs to step in to make things right.  The denied truth is that government hasn’t promoted open markets for at least 30 years.  So, there is no reason to pass more legislation to enlarge govt watchdog bureaus and staffs to mangle more markets, just step back from accepting corporatist payola, and enforce existing laws against monopolies and oligopolies.  But doing that would dry up the inflow of funds into corrupt pockets.  As an example, today Sens Warren and Sanders have each received more than $30M from Google’s parent Alphabet.  The interesting part is that the ill-read younger employees of the behemoths are contributing much of the money that will be used to buy the rope to hang them after socialism sweeps Silicon Valley. (more here and here)

Unclear about working out their futures are both our Millennials and the Europeans.  Fundamentally, both are afflicted by the same mental rot.  See comment stream below and the graphic sent to me by a reader in response to the above scattershot.  A picture is worth a thousand ... (and all that).

[10jun19 update]  Politicians of all stripes like to tell us what “the American people” like, reject, demand, deserve, think, ignore, want, … .  However, those of us who have paid attention over the years know that the more certain a politician is assuring us about the sentiments of the American people, the more sure we can be that he’s spewing BS on thin ice.  Author Joe Epstein agrees – “There’s no shortage, I realize, of ways of detecting falsity in contemporary politicians, but I’ve come upon one that I find most helpful. The more politicians use the phrase “the American people,” I believe, the less they are to be trusted.” (more here)

The double dummies in Sacramento are now planning on spending billions to provide “complete healthcare” to the state’s illegal aliens according to the AP (here).  California seeks to retain its position as the nation’s idiot state, emplacing more policies to attract the indigent, the under-educated, the welfare recipient, the illegal alien, the criminal, …, and then wonders why it needs higher taxes and more regulations which convince middle-class workers and their employers to leave the state.  It will cost $3.4B to provide such healthcare coverage to include the 1.8M illegals now in California.  How many more will arrive as a result is anybody’s guess, but not anticipated by our state’s legislative super-majority.  Here’s a sample of the thinking behind this legislation – “The state Senate wants to cover adults ages 19 to 25, plus seniors 65 and older. That bill’s sponsor, Sen. Maria Elana Durazo, scoffed at cost concerns, noting the state has a projected $21.5 billion budget surplus.”  So we’re again spending projected surpluses which have a horrible record of not arriving, while ignoring all the collateral costs that this invited ingress will incur as an ever larger share of California’s population is made up of professional gimmes.  (And here is more about soaking the middle class and taxing the rich.)  But we all know how they will vote, don't we?

Women of color remain victims in America, so maintains “ZORA”, a new “publication that centers on and celebrates the hopes, dreams, aspirations, and experiences of women of color”.  Zora is one of many newly minted online outlets promoted by Medium, itself a menagerie of Marxist missives from Millennials who regularly exhibit there the horrific educational deficits they have suffered in unionized government schools, bequeathed us by the Great Society.  Their raison d’etre is to “challenge the stereotypes and outdated tropes associated with women of color” through offerings that provide a “multi-textured, multilayered, multifaceted take on life as a woman of color.”  I provide these links to readers as yet one more witness to the broad spectrum of inputs from which I and other well-read RR readers benefit.  As such, reciprocity is recommended to our leftwing brethren in order to elevate their discourse in these pages.

[11jun19 update]  Another more succinct perspective on socialism.

Trans Athletes Debate – The BBC will air a documentary at the end of this month to explore the trans athlete issue which now impacts primarily women’s sports competitions.  The documentary – ‘Trans Athletes: A Fair Playing Field?’ - will feature Martina Navratilova on the BBC One channel.  For those new to this issue, the problem is that natural female athletes who have spent their careers training to be champions in their sports are now left in the dust by trans-female athletes.  These competitions are inherently unfair to the women, and illustrate the undeniable fact that men and women are different, even after having their plumbing altered.  We don’t hear much about trans-male athletes competing in individual male sporting events, mainly because they don’t have chance to shine.  But to make progressive political hay, we do have examples of trans-males insisting on being on the men’s football teams where their inherent physical handicaps can be camouflaged in team play.  Nevertheless, their coaches and teammates know that the trans-males don’t carry their weight in such competitions.  My own opinion is that once you become a trans anything, that you forfeit your right to compete in your chosen gender sporting events.  If we get enough transgender athletes, then perhaps they can start their own sports leagues and individual competition events to maintain level playing fields.

Dropout Derby (updated 7jun19)

George Rebane

By last count there were 23 Democrat declared candidates running to become the next POTUS, with two more standing in the wings making up their minds.  And here they are –

Now it doesn’t take rocket science to figure out that all but a handful will make it through the debates and primaries, and to the convention floor.  One by one, most of them will start dropping out of the race for one reason or another.  And it occurred to me that trying to noodle the order of such casualties over the coming months would be much like filling in the March Madness basketball championship playoff brackets.  Only here it would be even simpler, and involve just making a list from the first to drop out all the way to the last one surviving as the 2020 Democrat candidate.

Sandbox – 5jun19

[‘Socialism is good for you.’  Now we have Crazy Bernie and Pocahontas claiming that the USSR, China, Cuba, … weren’t really real socialist countries; that they were ruled by tyrants instead of the finely fashioned fettle of fearless führers that they would become.  Someone should ask them to name a single socialist country that didn’t quickly descend into the tyrannical cesspools that recent history has shown us over and over again.  But the Dems are betting, after having screwed up America’s education system sufficiently, that today none of our younger generation have a clue about the various flavors and evolutions of collectivism, and of the hundreds of millions of their own people that what started out as socialism wound up killing over the last 100 years.  gjr]

Student Loan Scam Solution

George Rebane

Most well-read Americans know about the student loan scam that has been going on for at least a couple of decades.  This is where colleges and university administrations lobby for ever more generous and easy to get student loans, and then increase their tuitions and fees to continue the financial burden on the students, so that they can circle the ‘student loan barn’ one more time.  Everyone, save the students, know what these administrators have been doing, but no one seems to care until we get into a crisis such as the one we have now.

Today, the unpaid student debt stands at over $1.5T, and there is little chance that the lion’s share of it will be repaid.  Why?  Because many (most?) of the former students didn’t get the education required to get and hold a job that pays enough to pay off the loan and also make ends meet for the other necessaries of living.  And that because many of them left school before getting a degree, and more of them got ‘pretend feel-good’ (PFG) degrees.  The latter were concocted by college administrations to cynically take advantage of the nation’s politically correctness plague and attract hordes of the unqualified for dealing with and benefitting from real academic fields that teach skill sets valuable to employers not spending other people’s monies.

With the often-laughable curricula underlying such PFG degrees, droves of otherwise unqualified students were admitted to colleges and universities across the land.  Most all of them took out student loans for which fogging a mirror was the main qualification.  The college kahunas promptly raised tuitions and fees, and the money poured in to hire all kinds of people to administer the ‘…ility’ and ‘…ivity’ programs and projects – racial diversity, gender equality, ethnic inclusivity, historical sensitivity, … .

But recently the news about college graduates with PFG degrees has gotten out, and employers are not hiring them for what they supposedly learned in school – ‘Would you like fries with that?’ wound up for many as Plan B.  So during the last six years we have seen college enrollments drop (here), and it’s not clear whether the administrators, who now outnumber the institutions’ academics, will offer more or fewer PFG courses of study to attract the declining cohort of those planning to continue their education after high school.

No matter what the future admittance policies will be, student loans – most offered by government (i.e. you and me) - are here to stay.  So here’s the Rebane Doctrine solution to the student loan crisis – simply put, require the admitting universities and colleges to guarantee their students’ loans.  This will have at least two salutary effects.  It will again raise admission standards to levels more in line with the intellectual demands of real academia, and it will serve to prune the course catalogue of gratuitous PFG degree programs (and also tune up their other academic offerings for success in the jobs markets).  Universities will then have a vested interest in admitting qualified students and then teaching them skillsets valued by society.  Simply pass legislation that requires schools receiving federal funding of any kind to co-sign their students’ loan agreements.  A corollary benefit will be the reduction of administrative staffing levels, especially those dealing with all the ‘… ilities’ and ‘…ivities’ programs and attitudes that have so changed the face of our schools of higher education.