Dropout Derby (updated 7jun19)

George Rebane

By last count there were 23 Democrat declared candidates running to become the next POTUS, with two more standing in the wings making up their minds.  And here they are –

Now it doesn’t take rocket science to figure out that all but a handful will make it through the debates and primaries, and to the convention floor.  One by one, most of them will start dropping out of the race for one reason or another.  And it occurred to me that trying to noodle the order of such casualties over the coming months would be much like filling in the March Madness basketball championship playoff brackets.  Only here it would be even simpler, and involve just making a list from the first to drop out all the way to the last one surviving as the 2020 Democrat candidate.

Any such list can be compared to the actual dropout sequence, but how do we compare two such lists to see which one was from the more astute (or lucky) prognosticator.  In other words, how do you score various competing lists as to their accuracy?  As a longtime game inventor, I love problems like this, and a solution didn’t take long to figure out.  Start with sequentially numbering the candidates, say, in alphabetical order.  A dropout list would then consist of the first 23 integers in some specific order.

Consider now that the Democratic National Convention is over, and we have at hand the actual dropout order of the candidates with the last one being their nominee for President.  If we compare someone’s competing dropout list to the actual dropout order, then there would be differences in the actual vs predicted locations in the two lists.  And the score of the predicted list should depend on how many and how large were the differences.  A perfect score would be obtained by a list that perfectly matched the actual list, giving zeros for all the differences.

The maximum difference between a predicted and actual dropout location for a candidate would be the length of the list minus one – e.g. candidate X was predicted to be nominated, and instead turned out to be the first to drop out.  Here such a difference for X would be 23 – 1 = 22.  Now, say, candidate Y was predicted to be the ninth dropout, and, in fact was the fifteenth to leave the race, then that difference would be 15 – 9 = 6.  And, of course, if candidate Z was predicted to drop out eighteenth and did indeed was the eighteenth dropout, then his difference would be 18 – 18 = 0.  So, it is seen that such differences are actually penalties for wrong predictions.

The merit of each prediction then would be the complement of a candidate’s difference and its maximum possible value, here 22.  The above candidates X, Y, Z would then contribute scores of 0, 16, and 22.  As the campaign proceeds and candidates start dropping out, we can now always compute the percentage score for any given list of predictions – simply add the scores of the departed candidates, and divide by 22 times the number of the dear departed.  This scoring process will allow the comparisons of competing lists as the campaign progresses right through the convention.  A graph of such competing list might be interesting to track.

The competition could be made even more interesting if competing prognosticators were allowed to reorder the surviving candidates, say, at the end of 2019, and then again at the end of the last primary.  Plots of such a competition could even engender interest enough to negotiate a side bet or two.

We’ll now number the 23 Democrat candidates in alphabetical order.

To illustrate the DropOut Derby competition, let’s assume that the actual order of dropouts is recorded sequentially as the weeks and months pass to Democrat convention and nomination.  I wrote some code that allows us to simulate what such a competition of prognosticators would look like.   The illustrated ‘actual’ and predicted sequence of candidate ID numbers were drawn at random to illustrate the format of the competition.  Here is the results array showing also the predicted sequences by two competitors.

Given the ‘actual’ dropout sequence by candidate ID numbers, and the competitors’ prognosticated sequences, we then compute the scoring described above and show a plot of the scores over the entire 23 candidates as below (recall that the last ‘dropout’ is the Dems’ nominee).  Of course, I would redraw and post the plot only as candidates dropped out, which would show the progress of the score lines progressing from left to right over the coming months.

So, I invite readers wishing to participate to post their sequence of the 23 candidate IDs in the comments, which I will then duly record, track, and report.  Entries will be accepted until the first of the 23 drops out.

[6jun19 update]  The entries to date are shown below.

Comments

[The Estonian Fox]

De Blasio 1
Bennet 2
Inslee 3
Messam 4
Moulton______ 5
Swalwell 6
Williamson 7
Gabbard 8
Bullock 9
O'Rourke_____ 10
Ryan 11
Castro 12
Delaney 13
Gillibrand 14
Hickenlooper_ 15
Yang 16
Buttigieg 17
Booker 18
Klobuchar 19
Harris_______ 20
Biden 21
Sanders 22
Warren 23

George, did I understand correctly that first place receives a prize of untold value?
Who are these people anyway? Some didn't even make Wikipedia.

[Walt]

Rebane's "DEAD POOL" Love it!
14 7 2
16 3 10
15 1 12
6 17 18
4 5 19
23 13 21
22 11
15 20
8 9

[Todd Juvinall]

Democrats got 46% in the primary and R's got 54%. Looks to me like the R's are in control and the county is red.

https://www.mynevadacounty.com/DocumentCenter/View/27175/cumulative-tally-final

[George Rebane]

Estonian Fox 622pm - You are correct, the awarded first prize will be of "untold value". Now I wish you would have submitted your list in the form of the candidate ID numbers as requested, and as did Mr Walt (although he entered #15 twice, thereby winding up with a sequence of 24). However, if you wish me to do the translation for the sake of our mutual old sod, I will ;-)

But I would respectfully request you both submit your entries as a comma-separated list of the candidate ID numbers - such as 14,7,2,16, ... . Thank you.

ToddJ 630pm - Todd, you're on the wrong commentary.

[Walt]

Shit....... And I looked it over three times.. OK,,OK... I will start wearing my glasses.
That #15 will drop out,, then re-enter the race,,, just to be found dirty, and have to drop out again....(There.. I just covered my ass)

[George Rebane]

Walt 720pm - Bullshit - be a good man and redo your list so I can easily copy/paste it into Excel, else I won't share the flagon of fine Irish sauce you ordered for me ;-)

[Walt]

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The secret sauce should be here soon.
As long as the bottles ain't body cavity searched at customs this time.

[fish]

Hickenlooper 1
Bennet 2
Messam 3
Inslee 4
Moulton 5
O'Rourke 6
Swalwell 7
Williamson 8
Bullock 9
Delaney 10
Ryan 11
Castro 12
Gillibrand 13
Booker 14
De Blasio 15
Yang 16
Klobuchar 17
Gabbard 18
Buttigieg 19
Harris 20
Sanders 21
Warren 22
Biden 23

[George Rebane]

fish 800pm - Mr fish, you did the same thing as the Estonian Fox (see my 712pm). Please give me the candidate ID numbers like in Walt's 759pm. Thanks.

[fish]

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[fish]

George, disregard my 9:15

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[The Estonian Fox]

Resubmitting-
7, 1, 13, 15,16, 20, 22, 9, 4, 17, 18, 6, 8, 10, 12, 23, 5, 3, 14, 11, 2, 19, 21.

What happens if our favorite non-convicted felon decides to rejoin the race & then drop out? I'll put her as #24, between 12 & 23, as a tie-breaker!

[George Rebane]

EstFox 737am - Thank you. So noted about Hillary. However, were that to happen, we could resume the competition with the survivors plus Hillary, with competitors resubmitting the then abbreviated dropout list.

[fish]

Crap……this could totally screw up my bracket!

"Biden has had a bad week…

Biden's Past Catches Up With Him As 2020 Campaign Mired In Crisis"

https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2019-06-06/bidens-past-catches-him-2020-campaign-mired-crisis

[Bill Tozer]

I would rather play by listing which one gave his wife baby poop to eat, which one took his mother to see Deep Throat, which one is the Native American version of Rachel Dolezel, which one is running on the circumcision ban......but count me in.

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I assume that if two or more drop out on the same day, the order will be the actual time stamp of the drop out speech, not the time stamp of the scheduled concession speech...in case one does not commence on time or gets delayed. Maybe they will break up on Twitter or FB. It’s the woke thing to do nowadays.

[Bill Tozer]

PS: Wishing or wanting don’t count. If I were name the one Democrat candidate that every Dem pundit across the spectrum wants to see drop out first, I would name Kristen Gillibrand. But, who is going to tell a sitting US Senator that? Might come back to haunt ya with pending legislation before the distinguished body in the future.....

[George Rebane]

Well, it was a tough go, but the Rebanes went through a systematic process dividing candidates into 'before debates', 'before primaries', before convention', and 'at convention'. When the dust settled, this is what came out -
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So far we have entries from Estonian Fox, WaltB, fish, BillT, and Rebane. I will post these entries as an update to the above piece.

[Bill Tozer]

Wait. What about me??? Alas, I feel small. I feel less than. I feel not welcomed here.

https://m.facebook.com/PatriotPost/photos/a.82108390913/10156431804140914/?type=3&source=48

Ok, here is a puzzle for Dr. Rebane

https://www.facebook.com/WowSoPunny/photos/a.985057168177019/2128570380492353/?type=3&theater&ifg=1

[Todd Juvinall]

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[George Rebane]

ToddJ 1248pm - Thanks Todd, I'll update the update at the end of the day, and wait if anyone else enters their list.

Mr Tozer, you are anything but ignored around here. Turns out that you entered you list while I was getting mine entered. So you beat me as the record shows.

[Scott O]

BT at 12:23 - One of the fav British detective shows here at Sage Hollow. Good one!
OK George - I have to play catch up - making my list, checking it twice - looking to see who's naughty and who's not so naughty.
Sooo hard, lemme see, Lickenhooper, Swallowswell...
So many to pick from. No cheating by looking others' choices...
Blindfolded and dart board at the ready...
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If the prize is too large to ship, I can pick it up in person.

[Bill Tozer]

Well, lookie here. Biden jumps in as the new ‘mean green planet defending machine’ and My GAL dives in after him to become The New Climate Change Expert. Anything Joe can do, she can do better. They don’t call it the Clinton Global Initiative for nothing.

https://www.dailywire.com/news/48080/hillary-clinton-rebrands-climate-change-expert-emily-zanotti

[Don Bessee]

Flailing arms were a clue -

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-election-poll/beto-orourke-a-democratic-darling-in-2018-struggling-on-national-stage-idUSKCN1T72A6

;-)

[fish]

Posted by: Don Bessee | 06 June 2019 at 07:34 PM

Yeah.......looking vaguely like one of the idiot spawn of the Kennedy Klan just won't be enough this cycle! Sorry Robert Patrick!

[fish]

PANDER HARDER SHOTGUN JOE.........HARDER!!!!!

"Former Vice President Joe Biden reversed his position on the Hyde Amendment Thursday after facing intense backlash from within his own party."

https://dailycaller.com/2019/06/06/biden-flips-hyde-amendment-pressure/

[Russ]

OK, let us play the game on the board.

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[George Rebane]

Russ 855pm - Thanks Russ, your list will appear in tomorrow's update.

[Bill Tozer.]

That’s just Joe.

https://www.dailywire.com/sites/default/files/styles/article_full/public/uploads/2019/06/gettyimages-475301013.jpg?itok=mPuSI4vE

Ami is jumping in the race! Ami?

https://amiforamerica.net/tablet/index.html?fbclid=IwAR2y_t108hxQOm75EyDEkYoeaHz4LDqBG-Fhx3a7ZIvBTikuAnPVdbjUvKE

[Scott O]

Where's Paul list? He always has the winning poll numbers.
In fact, what's happened to the left? Who are their champions? Who and what do they support?
Just rock throwing and crickets.

[Paul Emery]

Rocks and crickets Scott

I like that Well done

[Todd Juvinall]

Scott O | 07 June 2019 at 07:18 AM

Right on the mark. The demoncrats will lose the House and we will keep the Senate and President. The left has nothing but hate. Paul Emery is a fine example f the vacuousness of the left. They have nada.

[Walt]

Emery is back to TROLL status. He won't state his position on anything.He knows it will come back to bite him in the ass.
Just like anyone's ex wife(s) all they do is bitch.
No answers to anything.

[Don Bessee]

Another crack in the wall -

https://www.foxnews.com/politics/obama-confidant-questions-bidens-steadiness-after-abortion-flip-flop-flip

;-)

[Walt]

DAMN!!!! Can we have a do over?
Biden my throw in the towel plenty sooner.(all the dirt on him is coming out by the dump truck load.)
https://www.breitbart.com/politics/2019/06/07/joe-biden-1973-full-audio-emerges-of-rollicking-speech-senator-gave-to-cleveland-city-club/
"In addition to this audio, Breitbart News has obtained a 1972 newspaper clipping showing he made more insensitive remarks—saying he was a “phony liberal” while discussing being nice to minorities.

At the time of the 1973 speech, Biden was 30 years old and had just won an upset victory to the U.S. Senate from Delaware—a seat he would hold for seven terms. Although new to politics, Biden was introduced that evening by the club’s then-president Bertram Gardner, one of Cleveland’s African-American civic leaders, as a rising star with a “frank and candid” demeanor.” "

And it goes downhill from there.
I'm sure Joe will have plenty of excuses..
Then again,, LIB news will bury this so the general Proggy population won't hear of it.

[Scott O]

But Walt - the polls, the polls!
Biden up on Trump in Texas!
If Biden looks like he's the best they've got to take on Trump, the Dem establishment will run him no matter what. Plenty of time for others to rise or fall in the polls. We'll see.

[Bill Tozer]

It is interesting that as of the latest Rebane Update, we have 4 participants that say Biden will be the last man standing and 4 who think Warren will be the last man standing.

They way Biden has flip flopped under just one day of pressure, one must consider the possibility that Biden will drop out, change his mind, and jump back in again. That would mess up everything on the Loser Derby.

[Bill Tozer]

I hope Biden can keep iup. He obviously is pacing himself. He is doing half the appearances his competition is doing and avoiding the press. I don’t blame him. He got his deferment from Nam for asthma. Think it is catching up with him. Trump got his deferment for bone spurs, yet he still manages to hit the ground running everyday and his aides struggle to keep but with him. Not so with Sleepy Joe’s aides.

It is a smart strategy to keep Biden away from the crowds, press, and those high definition cameras. Less chance of Joe opening his mouth and pulling a Biden. “Oh, that’s just Joe.”

I just don’t see the Dems nominating anyone but an angry old white guy. They tried a woman last time and learned their lesson. Boy did they. But, it was the best they had and you gotta work with what you got. Biden is the best they got, asthma and all.

[Don Bessee]

There has to be an army of socialists digging up dirt on creepy grampa joe and spreading it around -

According the report, after he graduated college in 1968, Biden became eligible for the draft, which could have landed him in combat in Vietnam. What saved him, what earned him a 1-Y draft deferment, was asthma…

Asthma, y’all.

Asthma.

Don’t get me wrong, asthma can be debilitating. Chronic asthma is the worst; it can disable a person. If Biden legitimately suffered a serious asthma problem, his draft deferment is perfectly legitimate.

Here’s the problem, though…
While Biden was scoring a deferment for “asthma as a teenager,” he was — get this — also scoring touchdowns as a teenager.

Biden played football in high school and once went so far as to lie about playing football for the University of Delaware — even though he didn’t, but Biden is the kind of liar who lies about such things.

What’s more, InsideSources points out that in his autobiography, Biden makes no mention of asthma, but brags about being “active in intramural sports” while in college, and “recounts an active childhood [and] football exploits in high school.”

Worse still, during one summer home from college, as Biden himself has admitted, he worked as a lifeguard, which requires vigorous health in order to pass that test, including a very healthy set of lungs.

Just six years later, at the height of the fighting in Vietnam, that same poolside athlete avoided mandatory military service due to “asthma as a teenager.”
…”asthma as a teenager.”

Yep, healthy enough to play football and qualify as a lifeguard, which is no easy task, but still 1-Y when swimming is one of the most strenuous exercises around.

Trump haters can laugh all they want at Trump’s “bone spurs,” the reason behind his 1-Y classification, but snickers and cheap shots don’t contradict a bone spur diagnosis. It’s not like Trump was out running marathons at the time.

https://www.breitbart.com/politics/2019/06/07/nolte-report-shows-joe-biden-has-big-vietnam-draft-evasion-problem/

;-)

[George Rebane]

If Biden, or anybody, does drop out and then re-enter, it's easy enough to restart the competition with the scores at re-entry and everyone submitting their new dropout list on the then survivors.

[Bill Tozer]

Where do we bury the survivors?

[Don Bessee]

@ 1003 - CNN

;-)

[fish]

Posted by: Bill Tozer | 07 June 2019 at 05:41 PM

Yeah.....I mentioned that earlier.....once Shotgun started talking again that he was going screw up my bracket!

There’s a reason they don’t let him speak to much while campaigning......

[Don Bessee]

Cut 387 of 1000 -

Biden’s decision to avoid Iowa comes after a week punctuated by slipping poll numbers, flip-flops, and gaffes.

Earlier in the week, Biden set off a firestorm among liberals by reaffirming his commitment to the Hyde Amendment, a federal rule banning tax dollars from being used for abortion except in cases of maternal health or if the pregnancy arose because of rape or incest.

Although Biden had voted for the rule continuously during his 40-year political career, the public acknowledgment drew a rise from groups and advocates on the left. Biden attempted to appease those detractors by saying he would continue to support the Hyde Amendment unless women were in a position to lose access to abortion.

That waffle was not suitable for many, with Planned Parenthood calling continued support for the rule “harmful.” After strong denunciation and pressure from the likes of Hollywood starlet Alyssa Milano, Biden acquiesced, saying “times had changed” and that he now favors scrapping the rule.

Since reversing his position, Biden has disappeared from view. The former vice president’s campaign released a limited schedule on Friday denoting meetings with advisers but no public appearances.

Biden’s failed 2008 presidential bid might shed some light on his disinclination to visit Iowa. In that race, he was initially considered a contender in the state, considering its heavy focus on retail politics. On election night, though, Iowa proved it was not very fertile ground, as Biden failed to crack one percent of the vote. He dropped out soon after.

https://www.breitbart.com/politics/2019/06/08/2020-frontrunner-joe-biden-missing-action-iowa-democrats-big-weekend/

;-)

[George Rebane]

DonB 536pm - You write well Mr Bessee. But as has Mr Tozer, so would you also start using full quotes for the materials you lift from other sources so readers can distinguish your words and wordsmithing from that of others? Thanks.

[Don Bessee]

Forgot the dash after my opening.

;-)

[Russ]

Why only the right of centers participants in the derby? Where are all lefty crickets? Do they lack conviction? Or, the process too painful? Like to hear an explanation.

[Don Bessee]

Uh ya! No Shit!

Former Secretary of Defense Robert Gates under President Obama reaffirmed that he believes former Vice President Joe Biden has been "wrong on most foreign policy issues" in the past 40 years, during an interview with David Axelrod on CNN's The Axe Files.

"[Biden] clashed with the Pentagon and with the leadership over Afghanistan, and you've been fairly critical of him at one point, saying he was wrong every foreign policy issue for 40 years,"Axelrod said. "Would you be comfortable with him as Commander in Chief?"

Gates replied that he thinks he will have to "wait and see" and if Biden is fit for the office.
"I think vice president did have some issues with the military and I did say that recently that I stand by the statement that I thought he had been wrong about most foreign policy issues for 40 years, especially during the Cold War.

https://freebeacon.com/politics/gates-stands-by-comment-on-biden-being-wrong-on-most-foreign-policy-issues/

;-)

[Bill Tozer]

I am concerned about Biden, but for a different reason than stated above. I watched him yesterday and towards the end he looked like he was fading. He looked like he was out of gas, running on fumes.
. He is getting up there in years and I was surprised (taken back) by how much it shows. One cannot imagine him standing against fresh energetic candidates of his own party and trying to pull it off. The contrast is just too great to hide.
Yes, there is a long way to go, but I don’t think Joe has the physical strength a grueling national campaign requires. At the end of watching Biden, looking into his eyes and reading his countenance, I flashed on a collapsing Hillary being tossed into the back of the black SUV. Makes me wonder if he has the strength or stamina to physically be the last man standing. I see it getting worse, not better. Darn.

[Walt]

The first losers ARE,,,,,
https://dailycaller.com/2019/06/13/democratic-presidential-debate-scheduled-candidates/

[Bill Tozer]

Beat me to it Walt.

Now, the chorus line of twenty on the stage for show and tell is important, but some will stick around anyway. I knew Yang would be around just because of ego and Asian money behind him. Just a good donor or two and you can ride this for awhile. Glad to see Tulsi still standing. Easy on the eyes and I love a gal in uniform. And Punchy will be happy that his beloved taskmaster who eats salads with her comb and have underlings clean it for her afterwards is still in the running. Boy, when they asked her about day of birth abortions, she took off running, lol.

And of course Swelwell has to stick around to serve his useful purpose.

[Bill Tozer]

Meme

https://m.facebook.com/RowdyConservatives/photos/a.254420818025296/1647491232051574/?type=3&source=48

[Russell Steele]

First One Out? John Hickenlooper Bleeding Staff, Losing Money, Pressured to Drop Out

Former Gov. John Hickenlooper (D-Colo.) has fallen on bad times. He may become the first 2020 Democratic presidential candidate to drop out of the race.

Hickenlooper's senior advisors urged him to withdraw from the presidential race last month, according to a groundbreaking POLITICO report from Alex Thompson and Nolan McCaskill. Staff encouraged him to run for Colorado's Senate seat or pursue another path, an anonymous source told the paper.

According to the source, the campaign has only about 13,000 donors, making it almost impossible for him to reach the 65,000 unique donors required to compete in the second round of Democratic debates on July 30-31. The campaign managed to raise just over $1 million in the second quarter of 2019, about the same amount Hickenlooper raised in the first 48 hours of his candidacy. It will likely run out of money in a month.

https://pjmedia.com/trending/first-one-out-john-hickenlooper-bleeding-staff-losing-money-pressured-to-drop-out/

[George Rebane]

RussS 1057am - That appears about right, but we need the exact dropout order. I'm asking all readers to please keep us informed.

[fish]

Posted by: Russell Steele | 03 July 2019 at 10:57 AM

Well that's the kind of outcome you can expect when you tell the world you've watched porn with your mother...

[George Rebane]

fish 1122am - Mr fish, you and ToddJ have yet to update your dropout lists to include all 25 contenders.

[Todd Juvinall]

I lost my list

[Barry Pruett]

Hickenlooper is not a true believer like our crazy California liberals. Obviously without ideological purity in connection with the cause and the struggle, he’s gone

[Russell Steele]

Todd @ 11:34 AM, See Update above to recover your list

[Bill Tozer]

Todd. I lost mine as well, but then scrolled down the subject posts to the June 5th Drop Out Derby (updated 6/7/19) and found mine. Here is your original list.

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Posted by: Todd Juvinall | 06 June 2019 at 12:48 PM

That gap between #3 and #19 appeared in the orginal. :)

[Bill Tozer]

Well, well, well. Hickenlooper is candidate #12. Who has #12 the first to go?
A: someone named Fish.

I have Messam or whatever/whoever that is

[Bill Tozer]

FYI: If #6 makes it all the way, then we will have a Presidente Castro. Only in Amerika.

[fish]

Posted by: George Rebane | 03 July 2019 at 11:30 AM

Did I miss something…….

Someone jump into the race or did someone bail out?

[George Rebane]

fish 134pm - You did indeed; an entire post on the matter.
https://rebaneruminations.typepad.com/rebanes_ruminations/2019/06/dropout-derby-updated-23-june-2019.html

[Todd Juvinall]

So the last two that you say are jumping in must be added to the list? And then a redo list?

[Bill Tozer]

Todd

Yep. That’s why I posted your original list @ 11:59...easier just to copy and paste it and then stick #24 and #25 where you please at edit and push post. :)

[Todd Juvinall]

Thanks Bill!