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15 June 2019

Comments

Barry Pruett

Ok. Not being a mathematician, does this mean that, absent some unknown event, there is an 85% probability that this bull market continues through the 2020 election?

The Estonian Fox

Yep.

Bull markets don't end due to age, nor to magnitude. But generally to an unknown, unexpected, surprise.

China trade problem? Been here since 2016 via Trump's campaign rhetoric. Actual tariffs have been imposed for a year now, without much of an effect on GDP or the stock market. Just talk.

Fed interest rates? Maybe if they raise them by 2-3% at their next meeting. That would even surprise our favorite anti-capitalist economist/columnist, Paul Krugman.

Leading economic indicators? Still rising, so no expected surprise there.

Brexit? That's been a slow train to nowhere for 3 years.

Gridlock in Congress? Yes, I hope so. Been here since 2016, when the Republicans gridlocked Trump, so the Dems just continued it. No effect yet. More talk.

War with N Korea or Iran? Possible bad surprise. Iran's attack on 2 tankers last week resulted in a spike; no wait, a drop, in oil prices. No one cares what Iran does.

All Dem candidates attacked & eaten by aliens (real ones) at their first debate next week? Still no one would care.

George Rebane

BarryP 744am - The more rigorous answer is that the complementary probability (here 85%) reflects every other event than the termination of the bull market. For example, the bull could just slow down, or even speed up after 2020 to satisfy the 85%. Good question.

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