Berkeley SETI Research Center visit

‘Any sufficiently advanced civilization will have capabilities that seem like magic to us.’ A.C. Clarke.

‘Where are they?’  Enrico Fermi

George Rebane

“The Breakthrough Listen Initiative is a ten-year program that represents humanity’s most significant effort to date to quantify the distribution of advanced life in the Universe.  Listen uses the world’s most powerful observing facilities (including the Green Bank Telescope – the largest steerable radio telescope in the world) to search for signatures of technology.  Additional Listen facilities include the 64-meter Parkes dish in Australia, and the Automated Planet Finder telescope in California. …”

Launched with $100M budget from a private donor, Breakthrough Listen (BL) at the UC Berkeley’s SETI Research Center (BSRC) has become the new “800-pound gorilla” in the community of organizations searching for extra-terrestrial intelligence.  The program is directed by Dr Andrew Siemion, and the center is ensconced in the university’s School of Astronomy (Campbell Hall).  BL is staffed by about twelve post-doc researchers and engineers, and doubles its staff with student interns and paid associates from all over the country.  The community’s former lead organization is the SETI Institute located in San Jose that operates the Hat Creek Radio Telescope (described elsewhere on RR).  Other SETI research organizations are located at UCLA and around the globe.  All of them vie for time on the growing number of huge radio telescopes in various countries.

RR readers are familiar with my lifelong interest in cosmology, AI, Singularity, and the evolution of intelligence.  The discovery of ETI will shake our human civilization to its roots, and contact with such an advanced civilization will definitely set the course for our future or terminate it.  So you can see the importance of answering Fermi’s plaintive query.  Most of us students of ETI ‘know’ they are out there or already among us.  My own focus in this research was summarized in ‘A copernican answers Fermi’.  (However, there are still some significant doubters like Nick Bostrom of Oxford University’s Future of Humanity Institute who explains here his hope that SETI will find nothing.)

I explain my own cosmology in the referenced copernican answer.  It dovetails somewhat with the school that holds ETI to be highly probable, however, I have some differences - specifically, that a specie’s bio-intelligence is the initial yet brief phase in the evolution of its civilization.  This dictates that such civilizations have a unique constraint imposed on their detectable electro-magnetic (EM) transmissions – these EM transmissions will last at most two or three of our centuries and then ‘blink out’.  This is a crucial argument which, when analyzed quantitatively with the latest data on exoplanets, produces a remarkable conclusion.  Intelligent life in our galaxy (hence in the Universe) is abundant, yet very hard to detect with searches of the sky for EM ‘techno signatures’.  Therefore, I foster alternative approaches be attempted to discover and contact ETI.

So I sent a copy of ‘A copernican answers Fermi’ to Dr Siemion at the BSRC, and much to my surprise I received an answer within a couple of hours inviting me to visit him, have a tour of the research center, and have lunch to further discuss my ideas.  He also sent me a copy of ‘Area Coverage of Expanding ET Signals in the Galaxy: SETI and Drake’s N’ by Claudio Grimaldi, et al – a group of Swiss and American astronomers that includes the well-known Frank Drake.  Coincidentally, the paper was published about the same time last year as my own research along the same lines.

The interesting difference between my paper and Grimaldi’s is that his analysis indicates that Earth should now be bathed by EM transmissions from millions of ETIs in our galaxy, and my analysis shows why we are most likely NOT able to see any such transmissions from the same millions of intelligent civilizations living in the Milky Way.  In short, I answered Fermi, and Grimaldi instead increased the conundrum to a new level – why then are we not able to see the millions of ETI transmissions washing over Earth?  (BTW, consider the above 'Mercator projection' graphic showing the galactic plane and exoplanet locations, and an archive of over 4,000 recently discovered exoplanets that NASA just released – here.)

Jo Ann and I got up early yesterday morning, and made it through miles of rush hour traffic to arrive in Berkeley by 10am.  We were greeted by Ms Karen Aguilar, the Center’s admin, and ushered into the maze of floors and hallways of Campbell Hall that are familiar to anyone who has visited a large university’s engineering or physics buildings.  There we met first with Dr Steve Croft (lead researcher) and Mr Matt Lebofsky (lead systems engineer and administrator) who showed us through the facility and then launched into a detailed description of BSRC’s various systems from radio dishes to the many back-end server banks for data handling and storage (the center collects and stores more than a petabyte of data daily).

From there we dove into a convivial and very informative discussion of the technical aspects of signal processing that BSRC uses and new approaches under development.  I was surprised by the number and types of RFI (radio frequency interference) signals that they have to sort through which include obvious satellite transmissions to the more confounding FRBs (fast radio bursts) from both Milky Way stars and other galaxies.

(Pictured above are members of the BSRC team who joined in our discussions.  Dr Siemion is in the center.  The other two pictures show me with Dr Croft.)

Dr Siemion was the last to join us as we got deeper into the strands of meta-physical concerns that were part of the main message I was bringing to our discussion.  My main point here is that, since discovering the EM transmissions of ETIs is an enterprise with a low probability of success as over 50 years of experience confirms, we should expand SETI’s search approaches to take into account some plausible characteristics of super-intelligent (SI) civilizations.  Underlying assumptions here include post-biotic beings living in, say, Dyson spheres that encapsulate brown dwarf stars, to their abilities to alter/utilize space, time, matter, and energy beyond our wildest conceptions.  After all, I argued, our physics has yet to understand what most of our universe is made of (dark matter, dark energy), and our main approach to a Theory of Everything is still string theory, which to date can at best be described as a mathematically-based religion – i.e. it demands to be accepted on faith since it can admit to no falsifying experiment.  The resulting conclusion in this line of thinking is that the super-intelligent beings out there understand reality way beyond what we describe through our ever more cumbersome Standard Model of sub-nucleonic matter.  Moreover, their mobility and communications are not limited by the speed of light since they have access to sub- and super-spaces beyond our ken.

Along these lines, I attempted to wax eloquent about discovering and/or contacting the more numerous post-Singularity SIs along the following lines which all point to approaches that would entice them to contact us instead of our attempting to find them.  (Note that on the odd chance that we do find an EM transmission from a pre-Singularity civilization, our ability to do anything about it, other than gush over our not being alone in the Universe, is minimal.)  So here’s the short form.

THESIS:  H. sapiens is not a unique species in this galaxy/universe in any way, be its evolution, state of knowledge, location, age, or achievements.  And therefore, we are not alone but are one of millions (billions?) of sentient civilizations travelling on a dubious path toward or are already in a state of sapience.  In this sense we are a copernican civilization as opposed to what some scientists and religionists believe us to be a unique or a ptolemaic civilization.

We live in an old galaxy (13.6B years in a 13.8B year-old universe) which is demonstrably populated by countless super-intelligent civilizations that need not reveal themselves to primitives like us until we achieve some yet to be discovered standard of sapience and/or development.  There are also countless pre-Singularity civilizations like ours in more or less similar stages of development within the cosmic time scale.  In my paper I presented the ‘demonstrably’ arguments.

When a species, on a suitably habitable planet, starts emitting EM radiation, they may have at most two or three of our centuries before they encounter their Singularity, destroy themselves, or are adopted into one of the galaxy’s super-intelligent (SI) communities.  In the mean time they have emitted an EM sphere of finite thickness that expands at the speed of light.  The finite thickness – say, 200-300 light-years – of this expanding spherical shell is due to their finally ‘blinking out’ for the above described reasons.  We know that if all such civilizations continue broadcasting in their post-Singularity phase or after being ‘adopted’ by a SI, then the skies would be full of EM transmissions from virtually all directions, which is not the case and gives rise to Fermi’s ‘Where are they?’

The simple explanation is that most likely the SIs are already here monitoring our ‘progress’ since we began declaring our EM-capable existence over a century ago.  As A.C. Clarke noted, ‘Any sufficiently advanced civilization will have capabilities that seem like magic to us.’  We have no idea what methods and means the SIs have for travel, communication, and manipulating all manner of things within their control of mass, energy, space, and time.

From the copernican perspective this is a very plausible state of affairs given the age and evolution of the universe, our current knowledge of the laws of physics, and what we conceive that we may be capable of in another millennium or even a million years - mere eye blinks in cosmic time scales.  And all the extant SIs needed was such a blink of an eye head start for the development of their post-Singularity civilizations, blinks that are guaranteed by the random evolutions that have been possible on this galaxy’s billions of suitable exoplanets and fabricated worlds.  In sum, the copernican hypothesis mandates a ‘probabilistic guarantee’ of their existence for the simple reason of our own existence and traveled path.

• Re Paul Davies’ Eerie Silence – there is no need for “niches” that act as attractants for evolving functions. Darwin’s explanation handles it with ‘survival of the fittest’ as long as mutation provides its usual rich trove of alternative ways forward.
• Davies, and others, do not consider the most likely possibility that all advanced civilizations blink out voluntarily because they have discovered a much more attractive (and realistic?) purpose for/in life.
• Is our god an SI? Is there a hierarchy of such gods?  (Consider the Mormon cosmology.)
• The bio-basis for intelligence is a short transient phase at the end of which the biological civilization either destroys itself (is destroyed) or passes into an ‘in-silico’ life form during post-Singularity.
• Singularity and cosmology are symbiotic ideas, considering either one alone is at least incomplete, but more than likely altogether impossible.
• The big question – What do civilizations do when they achieve SI status? What is out there to occupy SI civilizations when they no longer have to grub for survival?  This needs to be included in the answer to ‘Where are they?’.
• Even H. Sapiens has evolved into a more contemplative species, taking a great interest in their immediate surroundings and then the cosmos. In this context consider longer-lived civilizations.
• Lurking questions: John Wheeler’s ‘Why existence?’; Occam’s ‘Why not pick the simplest explanation (no matter how much it pummels your self-esteem)?’
• Are we one of the beloved, bemused, or truly bespoke pawns in a cosmic ‘game of God’ (say, per the Vedantists’ Bhagavatam Srimad)?

Renown physicist Frank Tipler in his Physics of Immortality gives strong basis for the theory that our Universe, as a cosmic being, will ultimately become intelligent and husband its myriads of sub-intelligences through a virtually eternal existence.  In my little thesis I embrace Tipler, swallow hard, and ask you to consider that our Universe has already achieved that state of grace – an overarching universal intelligence.  It’s an all-pervasive intelligence (akin to an asei god/God) which meager intellects like we cannot yet perceive.  This is similar to our limits with dark matter and dark energy, only the observed effects of which we presume and factor into our equations.  Therefore, I have labeled this Dark Intelligence for ease of future reference.

Dark Intelligence then pervades our Universe in manners mysterious and also glaringly observable in such things as the precise values of the physical constants that make this Universe possible.  We should not connote Dark Intelligence to be akin to something sinister or evil.  On the contrary, looking at what all such an intelligence sustains, it is easier to ascribe it as an expression of universal or cosmic love a la Tipler.  How we as a civilization or as individuals should attempt contact/union with such Dark Intelligence is beyond the scope of this dissertation. In the interval, we should concern ourselves more with discovering, attracting, contacting the SIs in our galaxy.  Enough of the meta-physics already.

In concluding our discussions with the BSRC team, I came away with the distinct feeling that SETI research will continue by focusing large radio telescopes on distant stars, hoping to ultimately capture a techno-signal that will once more impact humanity as did Copernicus when he announced that the Earth was not the center of the Universe.  No matter its chances of success, such efforts are readily understood and can be explained to funding sources without fear of terminating your career.  What sober wallet today would not usher someone to the door who gave a pitch like mine?

Nevertheless, in its current approach BSRC is doing something extremely unique and important for our species.  I was honored to be invited there, and we will stay in touch.

Comments

[Scott O]

So many thoughts...
Not in any particular order or importance.
Since we are discussing an area that may, or likely (most likely?) involve life forms and information that are outside of our intellectual and/or technical ability to comprehend, it would seem that we have set ourselves up for a tough row to to hoe. Not that it is an impossible or unworthy cause. The very challenges we might imagine in the search help push our own abilities and technologies. A good thing.
Your comment "The discovery of ETI will shake our human civilization to its roots, and contact with such an advanced civilization will definitely set the course for our future or terminate it.", has two parts. The 'discovery' and the 'contact'. Might be one and the same or if you mean 'contact' to be a back-and-forth of information then who knows? There are several different avenues to 'the discovery of ETI'. One might be a decipherable message from a civilization from a planet millions of light years from us pleading for help we can not possibly provide. Shrug. Another scenario is the usual sci-fi warning that 'they' are coming for us and we are doomed. And many, many other realities that may or may not alter our perception of the cosmos. If we can establish an ongoing and friendly line of communication with another form of intelligence then all bets are off as to what will happen here on Earth.
Another thought is that alternate realities in another dimension are possible and so looking off into space for various and sundry energy vibrations is a waste of time as it relates to the discovery of another form of intelligence.
The cynic in me chuckles at the thought of an actual discovery of a 'higher intelligence'. The SJWs will have one ginormous hissey fit that once again, we are pushing 'white supremacy'.
So, who knows what's out there? I'm certainly open to it, but I take an opposition view that it is numerically likely. The fact is, we just don't know. There is certainly a cottage industry that wants funding here and we must be careful of expenditure of taxpayer funds going to persuasive cranks and sharks, no matter how sincere. No - I'm not casting aspersions on your new-found friends. Obviously - there is a lot of 'stuff' out there in the great unknown and exploration seems to be baked into the human DNA. Our days of setting out in canoes and sailing ships has passed to the less heroic but more technically advanced sitting and looking at squiggles on read-outs.
Finally - good on the folks that look constantly to the heavens for a sign - it keeps them out of the bars.

[Russell Steele]

When I read about the signal processing challenges I was reminded that SpaceX is planning to launch 12,000 satellites, Amazon over 3,000, OneWeb 900, plus others a few 100 here and a few 100 there. All this RF energy is going to create a hallow of noise. As time goes forward the signal processing challenges will multiply.

[Russell Steele]

Reading Quantum Physics books and journals, I am reminded how little we know about the big space we occupy. A space filled with dark energy, dark matter and for now dark intelligence. One example is entangled electron communication over vast distances and through mountain barriers over an unknown path. How is that possible, yet the results are observable. If entangles electrons can do it my guess is SIs can also.

[Barry Pruett]

Thank you George. That was fun to read

[Gregory]

I heard a head exploding from vicinity of Nevada City... I think someone had a hard time seeing you at his blessed Cal.

Like a number of topics in astrophysics, a really fun part of SETI is that the chances of any real information *ever* pointing towards any real conclusion is vanishingly small, accent on vanishingly. Really, really, really tiny. So, have at it, folks.

I'm particularly happy that it appears in the next ten ten years, the Svensmark/Shaviv cosmoclimatology will be borne out with evidence that can't be ignored, and even more heads will be exploding.

[Gregory]

Mommy, can we watch the Star Trek NG episode Relics again?
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Relics_(Star_Trek%3A_The_Next_Generation)#cite_note-Dyson_interview-1

[Wayne Hullett]

If you give enough hydrogen enough time, it becomes conscious and intelligent. This much we know. A question worth asking is what happens if it is given even more time? A simulation would be one way (maybe the only way) to find out, if you had the resources...

[AVMan]

,,,be there or be L7,,,

https://www.yahoo.com/news/video/military-ready-confront-600-000-171857615.html

[Bill Tozer]

Area 51

https://m.facebook.com/story.php?story_fbid=2385657441481145&id=100001107384469