Dropout Derby update. As of 3 August 2019 with Democratic candidates 20 and 24 having bailed, the following is the cumulative score tally (bottom row). The number/name key is found in bottom figure.
[Addendum] One of the participants requested that I reprise the scoring algo with examples for a couple of the participants. The indicated ‘CumScore’ line contains the updated cumulative scores of the participants that account for all the dropouts to date – currently #20, then #24 as shown in the ‘Actual’ column. CumScore is the sum of the individual scores for each predicted dropout candidate.
A perfect prediction occurs when the participant’s dropout location matches the actual location in the sequence of dropouts. When there is a difference between a candidate’s predicted location and the actual location, then the prediction error is the (absolute value of the) difference between the two locations. The maximum possible difference value with 26 candidates is 25. So if a participant missed it by, say, 5 = predicted position minus actual position, then the relative error is 5/25 = 0.2, and the score for that prediction is the complement, 1 – |5/25| = 0.8. This yields a perfect score of 1.0 if the two positions match, and 1 - |25/25| = 0 if they maximally mismatch. CumSum is then the cumulative sum of all the participant’s individual candidate scores.
As examples, we’ll calculate the indicated CumSum scores for EstFox (1.40) and WaltB (1.24). For EstFox the first dropout difference is |7-1| = 6. Therefore 1 – 6/25 = 0.76. The second dropout yields a difference of |11-2| = 9, giving the candidate score of 1 – 9/25 = 0.64. The sum of these individual scores is the indicated 1.40 = 0.76 + 0.64. For WaltB we have the first score as 1 – |19-1|/25 = 0.28, and the second as 1 - |1-2|/25 = 0.96, for a total of 1.24 = 0.28 + 0.96. A perfect score at this point in the dropout sequence would be 2.0. This says that at the end of the competition when the last candidate ‘drops out’ to be the party’s nominee, a perfect score would be 26.
Along the same vein, we can also compute the ‘normalized score’ at every dropout in the sequence by dividing the participant’s CumScore by the perfect CumScore to date. The perfect normalized score would then always be 1.0 as the competition proceeds. Using the above examples, the normalized scores would be for EstFox 1.40/2.0 = 0.70, and for WaltB 1.24/2.0 = 0.62. The above table has been updated and corrected to show both the CumScore and NormScore for each participant. (H/T to commenter who noticed error in calculating the CumScore of participants who did not update their dropout lists when the last three Dem candidates entered the race. Such missing entries will receive a zero score for the dropped out candidate.)
George, can you please manually show your calculation of the cumulative score for any 2 of the columns? I don't get any of your totals.
From your 6/5/19 Dropout Derby, your original metric was to "simply add the scores of the departed candidates, and divide by 22 times the number of the dear departed." The "22" would now be "25" since there were 26 candidates.
The score would then be the complement of (a candidate’s difference between our guess & the actual dropout order) and its maximum possible value difference of 25. And the divisor would be 50 (25 x 2 candidates gone)?
Posted by: The Estonian Fox | 03 August 2019 at 05:48 PM
Darn it. IF (if is a big word) I had taken 15 seconds of research on whoever Gravel is, I would have seen that the chap is 89 friggin years old and moved him up on the Drop Out Derby. Walt scores big on that one. Me? At the bottom of the heap which means I got rear guard and have all of your backs covered.
In reality, any no-hopers don’t have to drop out. They may never make it to the Big Top, but can hang around as long as they please, even if they are not on any ballot anywhere. They can go past Nov. 2020 if they choose. Like Steyer, for example.
Good job Walt. Not too late to stick #26 Steyer in a slot somewhere, Walt, Fish, and Todd, hint hint.
Posted by: Bill Tozer | 03 August 2019 at 05:51 PM
BT - How long they stick around depends on how the money is holding out and how much fun they're having on the road.
Don't give up - politics is crazy stuff.
Posted by: Scott O | 03 August 2019 at 06:08 PM
EstFox 548pm - I've included the applicable scoring algo and the calcs in the addendum. Thanks for bringing it up.
Posted by: George Rebane | 04 August 2019 at 09:10 AM
For fish & Todd (neither of whom selected #24 in their list) - you have assigned an imputed difference-value of 1 for the #24 dropouts. So that assignment added (1-1/25) = 0.96 to get their total score.
So by not selecting, you're saying that they received a nearly perfect score for #24?
Posted by: The Estonian Fox | 04 August 2019 at 02:10 PM
EstFox 210pm - Yes, let me correct that in the code. I knew that as soon as we had late comer candidates and non-assiduous players, the computational contingencies would start getting crazy. Thank you.
Posted by: George Rebane | 04 August 2019 at 04:51 PM
The Matrix is not perfect. I was going to say something yesterday, but I didn’t want to throw Brother Todd or Fish under the bus. Us non-educated non-math whiz dummies have to stick together. Where did you go to school?? :)
Posted by: Bill Tozer | 04 August 2019 at 05:05 PM
Have corrected the code to eliminate the bug pointed out by EstFox 210pm, and reposted with the corrected results. Thank you.
Posted by: George Rebane | 04 August 2019 at 08:55 PM
Hickenlooper ends presidential bid
Former Colorado Gov. John Hickenlooper (D) dropped out of the Democratic presidential primary on Thursday, fueling speculation that he will launch a Senate bid in his home state.
Posted by: Russ | 15 August 2019 at 10:14 AM
Senator is not good enough for the beta male irshiman -
https://www.breitbart.com/clips/2019/08/15/beto-orourke-on-tx-senate-run-that-would-not-be-good-enough/
;-)
Posted by: Don Bessee | 15 August 2019 at 11:09 AM
How did auto correct not catch the mangled Irishman ??
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Lets keep creepy grampa joe in the closet with an ensure! -
https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/457486-biden-allies-float-scaling-back-events-to-limit-gaffes
;-)
Posted by: Don Bessee | 15 August 2019 at 01:16 PM
The Dropout Derby's 15aug19 update now available for your elucidation and enjoyment ;-)
Posted by: George Rebane | 15 August 2019 at 02:36 PM