COVID Testing – Unclear on the Concept (updated 15mar20)

George Rebane

Our dispensers of perennial hate have now fastened on to the shortage of Covid test kits in the land, and claim that the President had two months warning and did nothing.  The fact of the matter, as even reported in the NYT (here), is that no one around the world knew of the actual epidemiological parameters of Covid.  And no one did anything about it, starting with China’s Communist Party which initially tried to hide and play down what was happening in Wuhan.

Another fact of the matter is that there are perhaps tens of infectious disease outbreaks around the globe each year, most in inaccessible places that stay and abate there.  But some do get out into the more traveled parts of the world.  While we may know about each of such outbreaks, gearing up the nation's medical machinery to combat a full-blown epidemic on our shores for each of these has never been either a reasonable or feasible response.  Last December Covid-19 started out just like one of these outbreaks.

In any case, the problem we have with starting up any mass production of medicines and medical supplies is - drum roll please – big government.  The litigious regulatory state has grown to such an extent that everyone who could, moved their manufacturing offshore.  We make less that 10% of the medicines we consume – most are made in Chinese pharma factories.  No one gets extra credit for answering, ‘which of America’s political factions promote high cost of labor, draconian and unfathomable regulations, litigation at the drop of the hat, high taxes and fees on businesses, and overwhelming government bureaucracies to oversee and enforce the whole mess?’  And after that, they scream about high prices for the consumer.

But let’s get back to testing.  The anti-Trump lamestream continues to convince the public that Covid testing is somehow a prophylactic against the virus.  And things would have been much better had we been able to test all Americans from the gitgo.  That, it turns out, is unabashed bull crap.  Princeton’s liberal professor of economics and public policy, Alan Blinder, advises President Trump that ‘The Best Stimulus Is Coronavirus Testing Kits’.  Why? Because testing negative will give comfort to the consumer to go out there and keep shopping, since consumer spending makes up 70% of our GDP.

A little thought reveals that 1) a negative Covid test does not prevent subsequent infection, and 2) since a negative test is only a snapshot in time, we can’t make and distribute enough test kits to give continuous comfort to the consumer.  (We don’t even know the sensitivity of the tests; at what level of pre-symptomatic Covid presence will the test register positive.)  Testing negative on Monday does not guarantee that you will not be infected on Tuesday, nor that you will not be infecting others by Friday.  The only benefit a one-time comprehensive testing provides is to identify potential pockets of infection which might be contained by a timely regional quarantine, a quarantine which no one really knows how to enforce (as our Italian friends have discovered).  And to provide such information for making public policy on an ongoing basis requires testing entire populations also on an ongoing basis.  For that we have neither the funds, the manufacturing capacity, the distribution and administration organization, nor the capable personnel to administer tests and interpret the results – in short, it’s not in the cards.

Given all that, the only ‘benefit’ that the spread of Covid in America provides is ammo for the Democrats to continue lambasting President Trump and his administration, while hoping that their absurd accusations get some traction with the country’s lightly read, and therefore divert attention from the obviously diminished-capacity senior citizen who they’re putting up for President this fall.

[12mar20 update]  The Democrats’ program of Big Lies continues with their and their lamestream lackeys’ assertions that the Trump administration continues to mismanage the country’s response to the Covid-19 pandemic.  This is now asserted as a given on the leftwing broadcast media.  However, the medical professionals who the President has working on the problem is made up of people like the NIH immunologist Dr Anthony Fauci (who has also advised six Presidents on HIV/AIDS and many other domestic and global health issues) .  None of their careers are dependent on their current jobs, but all of their professional credentials are.  And to date none have criticized the federal response as being somehow inadequate in the sense that something else or more could be done today which isn’t being done.  In short, all these health pros agree that what the administration did and continues to do with the information and resources available at the time was aggressively proper.  And compared to what other governments have done, America under Trump is way in the lead in executing its pandemic mitigation policies.  According to my lights, the perniciously partisan public propaganda that the Democrats are trumpeting today puts them squarely in the sleazebag evil category.

Apropos to this politicizing, in 2009-10 we had the H1N1 (swine flu) epidemic under Obama, who could do no wrong.  Around 60,000,000 Americans were infected, and about 12,000 died (its death rate was a bit higher than the annual flu's).  But the pandemic was not politicized, and it finally abated as people took normal precautions with social distancing and the usual care for flu cases.

(H/T to reader for the above graphic.)

Another hot flash from the NC school district nurse who informed the attendees at a service club meeting that keeping hydrated is good, and staying hydrated with hot drinks like tea is better.  It also doesn't like Vitamin C.  The virus does not like wet, and hot wet is especially toxic to it.  Also take a look (here) at how long the virus survives in various non-human environments.

[13mar20 update]  Worthy of note is America’s unique process for most medical tests as outlined by Dr Fauci in his congressional testimony.  It turns out that to get tested for Covid-19 you need to go to your physician who then will decide whether to prescribe that you be tested.  Most EU countries apparently allow the patient to get the test kit on his own recognizance, perform the test, and submit the ‘kit’ for interpretation by medical authorities.  They do this to reduce costs of their national healthcare programs which are already unsustainable and forever seeking to eliminate services in a manner that will evade public attention and response.  We should follow their cost saving example and also allow self-testing, at least during this pandemic.  Longer term consideration of this policy is warranted – e.g. case in point, we allow self-testing for pregnancy with OTC test kits.

[15mar20 update]  The commentary and discussion on Covid-19 and testing for it is continued here.

Comments

[scenes]

lol. I was having this exact conversation at home just before I sat down here. Too funny. A weird synchronicity.

There's a funny magic voodoo effect attached to the 'test'. The only value is that perhaps a person should be more prone to be quarantined since Captain Trips spreads more easily than a typical flu. In the meantime you'll see typical infection rates, lack of cures for viruses, varying immunities depending on age/health/heredity/washyerhands.

Hey, it's a campaign year. The number of tests is a (so to speak) measurable metric in addition to being a bludgeon for use by BernieBiden when in truth they have no clue what is going on in the meeting rooms. In a world of influenza, everyone is an epidemiologist.

[scenes]

in related news.

https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/world-news/coronavirus-x-rays-show-terrifying-21672219

"A recent study of more than 1,000 patients, published in Radiology, found that chest CT scans were better than lab testing at diagnosing coronavirus at an early stage."

[L]

George, re: Dim's choice of opponent for Trump,

"Never interrupt your enemy while he's making a mistake" - Napoleon

[George Rebane]

L 421pm - Agreed. (Was I interrupting?)

[L]

No, nothing personal, just that conservatives probably shouldn't try too hard to dissuade the dims from picking Uncle Joe.

[scenes]

https://twitter.com/pattonoswalt/status/1237412129277218817

I do rather like the turn of phrase 'Magat'.

That's what the Republicans are to Team Blue. Maggots.

[Bill Tozer]

Well, not much has changed.

MSNBC TRASHES Trump's Coronavirus Speech as a ‘Distraction,’ ‘Strange,’ ‘Weird,’ ‘Worrying’

https://www.newsbusters.org/blogs/nb/curtis-houck/2020/03/11/msnbc-trashes-trumps-coronavirus-speech-distraction-strange-weird

[scenes]

re: BillT@ Trump's distracting strange weird worrying speech.

Well, here's the the transcript. I'd sure be happy to hear from the KVMR news crew about how awful it is. Of course, in a world of Emerianism, a global epidemic is better than two scoops, two genders, and one immigration law.

https://www.cnn.com/2020/03/11/politics/read-trump-coronavirus-address/index.html

[Gregory]

Testing kits are not the issue... there could be 2 for everyone on the planet and there would still be a pandemic.

We need to keep the rate of new infections as low as is practicable to keep from swamping hospitals with more people than can be cared for until they can walk back out the front door or wheeled out the back door.

"I don't want to go on the cart!"
-old plague victim, Monty Python and the Holy Grail

[scenes]

"Around the same time that most Americans set their clocks ahead this weekend, something more momentous shoved the world into an epic phase-change, and the modern era, with all its mighty baggage, was finally swept away, along with that single lost hour of darkness. We’re in a new world, and one night later, out on the freeway of history, the engine of the global economy threw a rod. The chauffeur is still standing alongside the stricken vehicle in the breakdown lane, scratching his head while sour-smelling smoke wafts up from the hood."

https://kunstler.com/clusterfuck-nation/things-take-a-turn/

[Bill Tozer]

When you can keep your head when all those around you are losing theirs.....

‘Lemon Loses His Mind, Shouts Down Kasich for NOT Bashing Trump's Address’

https://www.newsbusters.org/blogs/nb/nicholas-fondacaro/2020/03/12/lemon-loses-his-mind-shouts-down-kasich-not-bashing-trump

(Just beating the bony fingered one to the punch.)

[Bill Tozer]

Re: update

It’s a crying shame that Identity Politics has entered the COV-19 arena.

“It’s not so racist to close our borders now, is it? But if you call the coronavirus “Wuhan virus,” you’re racist, despite the fact that it started in and came from Wuhan, China.
Thank goodness the pandemic isn’t as widespread in America because the president was proactive about it with travel bans and because we don’t have socialized medicine.
In January, President Trump signed Executive Order 13769, temporarily barring foreigners from the U.S. if they had recently been to China. Trump was called 'racist' by the media. Trump was called 'bigoted' by Democrats. Joe Biden accused Trump of 'xenophobia.' We now know today that Trump was right. The President saved American lives.—-Benny Johnson

[Bill Tozer]

They warned us! Roberta Cross and gang have warned us for years!!

‘Trump Cancels 2020 Election Over Coronavirus Concerns’

“It’s just too risky,” President Trump told the press while standing behind a sneeze guard. “We’ll get all these people gathered together at rallies or lined up to vote, and they’re all going to get sick. And Bernie and Biden -- they’re just so old. Sending them around crowds campaiging is basically trying to murder them. Anyway, it just seems pointless for a bunch of people to die when everyone knows I was going to win anyway.“

https://babylonbee.com/news/pence-cancels-general-election-to-stymie-coronavirus

[Walt]

It's just a matter of time before the usual crowd demands "they" get the same.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/11/disease-dodging-worried-wealthy-jet-off-to-disaster-bunkers

It just "ain't fair"...

[H Spence]

Testing for Covid is not meant to find the negatives, of course you might contract the virus an hour after testing negative, but are testing for the positives. Once testing positive the patient can evaluated for medical and social intervention. It seems like this simply another example of the Rebane glass being half empty.

[H Spence]

Testing for Covid is not meant to find the negatives, of course you might contract the virus an hour after testing negative, but are testing for the positives. Once testing positive the patient can evaluated for medical and social intervention. It seems like this simply another example of the Rebane glass being half empty.

[Gregory]

Patient has symptoms?
If yes, stay home..monitor temperature
No flights for you!

Patient has difficulties breathing, etc?
If not really bad, call Dr/nurse for guidance
If really bad go to hospital.

It doesn't matter at that stage whether it's Wuhan or flu or sumpin' else

[scenes]

"Thank goodness the pandemic isn’t as widespread in America because the president was proactive about it with travel bans and because we don’t have socialized medicine."

Gotta love the kickback against travel bans as it interferes with Team Blue holy writ. Obviously restricting movement is going to push the epidemic curve around a bit and buy you some time. The world could stand to rebuild it's firewalls in terms of human and goods movement for a number of reasons.

Did I see in the news that Italy asked for help for the EU, didn't get it, was offered gear and supplies by China? Hopefully they're having plenty plenty meetings in Brussels.

Italy is where the action is although the US news has crummy (or nonexistent) coverage. Thank God for machine translation of foreign language newspapers, it's like those Italians have a different word for everything.

[scenes]

HSpence: "Once testing positive the patient can evaluated for medical and social intervention. "

lol. BS.

I'm with Gregory on this. In a world of noncurable viruses, treatment goes to people with poor/dangerous symptoms. They're not going to run you into the ICU if you test positive but don't have a life threatening thing going on.

There might be a tiny case that a Wuhanist might need more locking away in the basement than someone with jus' reglar flu, but it's not much of a case.

This business of testing is simply a combination of making people feel like something is being done and political warfare in an election year. Nothing more.

You know, if all that comes of this is people washing their hands, there's some value here.

[George Rebane]

HSpence 1147am - Better reading skills would have informed you that I covered this contingency. But you didn't cover your assessment of the Democrats' response. Thanks for being a reader.

[Bill Tozer]

Buck Sexton Tweets
@BuckSexton
·So we all know they are gonna cancel public campaign rallies any minute now right?
——————
I get the feeling that while every joyful and memorable public gathering and pastime is getting canceled for the next month-

Somehow our taxes will STILL BE DUE promptly on April 15th
———————
Buck Sexton
@BuckSexton
·
There’s an election this fall when the American people can cast their judgment on Trump’s handling of this pandemic-

but evil morons would rather do victory dances on Twitter tonight to celebrate how peril for the whole country is helping their political case

All because Trump

Ah, government.
————————-
Pay close attention to how politicians and journalists act during this tense time

If they won’t put aside their cheap partisan attacks, if they simply refuse to be helpful as we unite to defeat a pandemic-

You should never trust them to be fair-minded about anything, ever.
———
And my favorite:

@BuckSexton
Seriously, people need to stop panic buying toilet paper.

Some of us just want to normal buy it and the shelves are empty.

https://twitter.com/BuckSexton?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Eauthor

[Insider]

Leaks from inside the Whitehouse are saying the administration is preparing to enact a national emergency just before the November election. Trump will then cancel the election and declare martial law to cope with Covid-19. Mitch McConnell has already said he will pass a bill that will allow Trump to stay in office until the emergency is over and new elections can be held. The sources are also saying the administration's poor response to the outbreak so far, is intentional so that the virus spreads far and wide enough to make, what amounts to a coup, believable.

[Scott O]

Insider 5:16 - Thanks, I'll make a note of that on my social calendar.

[Don Bessee]

@516 ONLY believable to someone with a raging case of TDS! LOL

;-)

[fish]

Posted by: Insider | 12 March 2020 at 05:16 PM

Cool story Bro......

[scenes]

ScottO "Insider 5:16 - Thanks, I'll make a note of that on my social calendar."

I was wondering if any komissar gigs will open up, I'll keep an eye on indeed.com

Now, here's something that's actually of value.

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.03.09.20033217v1.full.pdf+html

"We found that viable virus could be detected in aerosols up to 3 hours post aerosolization, up to 4 hours on copper, up to 24 hours on cardboard and up to 2-3 days on plastic and stainless steel. HCoV-19 and SARS-CoV-1 exhibited similar half-lives in aerosols, with median estimates around 2.7 hours. Both viruses show relatively long viability on stainless steel and polypropylene compared to copper or cardboard: the median half-life estimate for HCoV-19 is around 13 hours on steel and around 16 hours on polypropylene. Our results indicate that aerosol and fomite transmission of HCoV-19 is plausible, as the virus can remain viable in aerosols for multiple hours and on surfaces up to days. "

You might want to keep the Amazon box on the porch for a day if you are planning on bugging-in.

[Scott O]

Actually, scenes - I really just wanted to note that there will be an extra open Tuesday in November for tennis.

[Don Bessee]

Creepy grampa joe is the gift that keeps on giving -

Former Vice President Joe Biden’s plan to combat the coronavirus in the United States does not include a single travel ban on any foreign country and revamps welfare-dependent legal immigration to the U.S. that President Trump’s administration has sought to end.

On Thursday, Biden unveiled a series of measures to fight the coronavirus but did not include so much as a travel ban on Wuhan, China, where the virus originated and where the majority of the more than 80,000 Chinese nationals infected with the coronavirus live.

If implemented, Biden’s plan would mean that flights directly from Wuhan Tianhe International Airport in Wuhan could continue as regularly scheduled into the interior of the U.S. and every major American city.

https://www.breitbart.com/politics/2020/03/12/bidens-coronavirus-plan-no-travel-bans-on-any-countries-allow-welfare-dependent-immigration-to-u-s/

;-)

[scenes]

Well now, this is exciting.

https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/news/hold-accountable-those-who-inflicted-it-on-the-world-tom-cotton-demands-punishment-for-coronavirus-outbreak

re: travel restrictions.

I did run into a theory that the reason the Italians got hit so hard was because the designer factories (and other businesses) are full of Chinese workers, and they got back from some holiday (New Years?) in China.

If nothing else, I did learn this:

https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2018/04/16/the-chinese-workers-who-assemble-designer-bags-in-tuscany

Pretty smart move by the multinational globalist dudes. To get a Made In Italy sticker, you just move a Chinese factory to Italy.

[Bill Tozer]

Hell hath froze over. Money talks, bull pucky walks.

‘California Governor Offers Rare Praise To Trump Amid Coronavirus Outbreak’

“Newsom says that he had a "private conversation" with Trump and the president said everything Newsom "could have hoped for" and the administration has since followed through with what Trump said.”....

“Newsom declines to criticize the Trump administration's response to the #coronavirus. He says he's working closely with federal officials and praised VP Mike Pence's work handling the situation.”

https://www.diamondandsilk.com/blog/2020/03/09/california-governor-offers-rare-praise-trump-amid-coronavirus-outbreak/?

Oh my, that won’t sit well with the local lefties or the TDS media. Go back to Sacramento Gavin, you stink-ass traitor!

[Scott O]

I see the Drudge Report has turned into a full-on scandal rag. Lots of screaming-headline type leads (with question marks at the end - meaning that the author knows it's BS).
Just an example of the nonsense - "NOONAN: 'Don't Panic' Is Rotten Advice..."
Really?
So - we should panic?
I had to click on that one.
The sub-title was "A grave crisis calls for reason and realism, not ‘an abundance of caution.’"
Did Peggy Noonan actually write this?
Exactly how are the 2 mutually exclusive and why is asking folks not to panic bad advice?
I guess columnists have to write something every day, so blather and trying to split every semantic hair works for her.
During the Blitz, there was death and destruction everywhere. The govt posted handbills telling the populace to: 'Keep calm and carry on'.
And (mostly) they did.

[scenes]

Notes of the day:

University of California, San Francisco BioHub Panel on COVID-19
March 10, 2020

https://www.linkedin.com/content-guest/article/notes-from-ucsf-expert-panel-march-10-dr-jordan-shlain-m-d-/

[Bill Tozer]

Guess this might go here, but maybe not. The herd mentality

THE GREAT TOILET PAPER PANDEMIC OF 2020

https://www.powerlineblog.com/archives/2020/03/the-great-toilet-paper-pandemic-of-2020-and-twip-preview.php

Liked this one

https://i2.wp.com/www.powerlineblog.com/ed-assets/2020/03/Untitled-1.png?w=474&ssl=1

[D]

Trump blew it big time with his lies on national TV and right in front of his CDC crew. Only 48 hours ago the whole thing was just a big hoax.
Now they are singing a different tune.
Still no test kits.

[Barry Pruett]

Trump’s approval rating holding steady fools. 😂

[fish]

Posted by: Scott O | 13 March 2020 at 08:15 AM

During the Blitz, there was death and destruction everywhere. The govt posted handbills telling the populace to: 'Keep calm and carry on'.

And (mostly) they did.

Regrettably......the US today is not the same caliber of population as 1940s Brit! We seem to be more a motley collection of Punchy’s, dugsKKKi’s and “The View” watching and Dr Phil worshipping jetsy’s!

[Gregory]

We don't need test kits, we need small drones to hover overhead of the stricken, just beyond their reach. UNCLEAN!

Make it so!

;)

[Bill Tozer]

ROFLMAO

“Only 48 hours ago the whole thing was just a big hoax.”

Debunked! Debunked! Debunked! But, of course, D can provide documentation to back up her assertion.

Thanks D for the belly laugh of the week. Never change.

[scenes]

Gotta love the test kit thing. Just another case of Emerianism, where anything is fair game to bring down the administration. Next thing you know we'll see sick Democratic operatives hanging out at supermarkets in the toilet paper aisle and at NASCAR events.

As usual it's a hard problem and bureaucracy is in the way. Even if they were a particularly important thing, it's a decent example of the side effects of single-sourcing responses to a need. Too brittle.

In the name of self-education, this wasn't a bad article.

https://www.factcheck.org/2020/03/the-facts-on-coronavirus-testing/

[Walt]

WOW!! A run on water everywhere.
I might run the hose out to the road and set up shop.(BYOB)
Plenty of pine cones to sell as buttwipe.

[Walt]

So this is where a certain individual here got the idea, and spread false info.
https://www.breitbart.com/politics/2020/03/13/washpost-busts-joe-biden-ad-four-pinocchios-for-video-manipulation-of-trumps-coronavirus-comments/
"The Biden ad accuses President Trump of dismissing the deadly illness as a “hoax” during a recent campaign rally in North Charleston, South Carolina. However, Washington Post fact-checker Meg Kelly explained the video clip is a “blatant” misrepresentation of the president’s remark.

“At the 10-second mark [of the ad], the camera shows a tight shot of the president saying ‘coronavirus’ and then cuts to a wide shot where [Trump] says, ‘this is their new hoax.’ Both clips are from Trump’s Feb. 28 campaign rally in North Charleston, S.C., but he never said ‘coronavirus, this is their new hoax.’ Rather, Biden’s ad clipped a large part of Trump’s speech to make it seem as though he had,”

[Scott O]

D 9:05 - "Only 48 hours ago the whole thing was just a big hoax."
Citation?
This isn't D.K., Mr D. The only smoke you can blow here is up your own rear end.
We eagerly await more comic stylings from the left.

[scenes]

re: Walt@11:17AM

lol. Good one. Heck, they must as well just do a TV ad with a CG Trump in a Nazi outfit. Cut to the chase.

In response, the Republicans could build an ad with Biden lovin' up on his granddaughter.

https://thenypost.files.wordpress.com/2020/02/usa_biden_iowa-epa.jpg?quality=80&strip=all&w=1024

The skirt is a nice touch.

[Bill Tozer]

Biden Rips Trump For Travel Ban To Stop Coronavirus. Dan Crenshaw Fires Back And Destroys Biden’s Argument.

https://www.dailywire.com/news/biden-rips-trump-for-travel-ban-to-stop-coronavirus-dan-crenshaw-fires-back-and-destroys-bidens-argument

[Bill Tozer]

IS TRUMP RIGHT ABOUT THE CDC?

Key excerpts:

As The New York Times reports in a terrific new article, officials at the Food and Drug Administration (FDA) and the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) stymied private and academic development of diagnostic tests that might have provided an early warning and a head start on controlling the epidemic that is now spreading across the country.

As the Times reports, Seattle infectious disease expert Dr. Helen Chu had, by January, collected a huge number of nasal swabs from local residents who were experiencing symptoms as part of a research project on flu. She proposed, to federal and state officials, testing those samples for coronavirus infections. As the Times reports, the CDC told Chu and her team that they could not test the samples unless their laboratory test was approved by the FDA. The FDA refused to approve Chu’s test on the grounds that her lab, according to the Times, “was not certified as a clinical laboratory under regulations established by the Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services, a process that could take months.”

In the meantime, the CDC required that public health officials could only use the diagnostic test designed by the agency. That test released on February 5 turned out to be badly flawed. The CDC’s insistence on a top-down centralized testing regime greatly slowed down the process of disease detection as the infection rate was accelerating.

The Times—the New York Times!—concluded:

The Seattle Flu Study illustrates how existing regulations and red tape—sometimes designed to protect privacy and health—have impeded the rapid rollout of testing nationally, while other countries ramped up much earlier and faster. Faced with a public health emergency on a scale potentially not seen in a century, the United States has not responded nimbly.

https://www.powerlineblog.com/archives/2020/03/is-trump-right-about-the-cdc.php

Quote, unquote.

[scenes]

"The CDC’s insistence on a top-down centralized testing regime greatly slowed down the process of disease detection as the infection rate was accelerating."

Well knock me down and steal my teeth!

Come on, having one great big giant beast of an organization is always more efficient.

For some reason a Viktor Suvorov story comes to mind. I'll cut 'n paste it here:

https://textsaver.flap.tv/lists/39ga

[fish]

First Point Of Joe Biden's Covid-19 Action Plan Is To Stop "Racism"

Because when dealing with a global pandemic, preventing people’s feelings from being hurt is surely of the utmost importance.

Mine too.....!

https://www.zerohedge.com/political/first-point-joe-bidens-covid-19-action-plan-stop-racism

[Walt]

DAMN scenes,,, that pic is wrong on SO many levels.

[scenes]

https://medium.com/@michaelfeuerstein/the-pandemic-caused-by-privilege-and-capitalism-19245ed81d2a

Huh.

and I thought the virus was caused by overpopulation, disgusting eating habits, and sketchy hygiene.

You know, they really are crazy.

[George Rebane]

re scenes 307pm - Feuerstein is a certifiable idiot. Yes, the modern world with facile transportation and communications does allow such infectious diseases to travel fast and far. And yes, capitalism did most to contribute to the arrival of such a world. But today people of all classes and wealth levels travel with equal ease around the world - and far more of the lower class wage earners travel, work, and vacation in distant places than do the wealthy. The early escape of the virus from its origin was due primarily to the perfidy of the Chinese Communist Party in their clumsy politically motivated attempts to cover-up and contain the virus. Idiots like Feuerstein would be the first to scream about their capitalist-provided comforts being removed. In the meantime there are political points to be made by him and his ilk.

[Barry Pruett]

Schools closed until April 13...

[fish]

Posted by: Barry Pruett | 13 March 2020 at 05:17 PM

Schools closed until April 13...

Yes.....the youngest has been insufferable all afternoon!

[Don Bessee]

It looks like they succeeded in stampeding the sheeple. The big Safeway was a mass of panic buying with every line running the to the back of the store and I heard from friends spd, rayless and save mart were also zoo's unlike anyone has seen before here.

https://www.breitbart.com/politics/2020/03/13/fights-thefts-arguments-as-toilet-paper-mania-wipes-across-globe/

;-)

[Walt]

One of my kids was in Auburn Savemart today,, and things were just fine. But that could change,...

[scenes]

"It looks like they succeeded in stampeding the sheeple. The big Safeway was a mass of panic buying with every line running the to the back of the store and I heard from friends spd, rayless and save mart were also zoo's unlike anyone has seen before here."

Good report, we could all stand to keep our eyes open.

I did get to see my first mask and first gloves yesterday on my driveabout to check out the situations at the different stores.

You can definitely see the point of the administration downplaying the emergency while still getting people to do practical measures to avoid getting sick. It doesn't take much to get the herd to stampede. The really interesting bit will be if there's a supply chain interruption or if it simply can't keep up. It's one thing to empty a store once, quite another if they don't re-fill and people notice.

Civilization is a pretty thin veneer, even at Briar Patch.

[Scott O]

scenes - "Civilization is a pretty thin veneer..."
Veneers are typically at least 1/16" thick.
Considering that there are areas of the country that barely even have civilization, I'd say it averages out at less than a coat of paint.
Most people would be shocked at how fast humans can degenerate if the props of civil society were removed.
Look at the violence of folks fighting over popular Christmas toys and low-cost TVs on sale.

[Scott O]

Just heard from our son. He and his wife had flown to SoCal for her B'day. Her parents and brothers live down there. The lot of them went to Dizzy-Land. He said it was 1/2 empty - quite surreal. No wonder they closed the joint. You could go on any ride without much or any waiting.
The plane on the flight back to Seattle was maybe 20% full.
The financial pain will be real.

[Bill Tozer]

OUTBREAK!
Will coronavirus kill the New World Order?

https://www.wnd.com/2020/03/will-coronavirus-kill-new-world-order/

[scenes]

Not a bad talking head video and channel.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BYTFk34nhoI

I don't see much network news but, man, are they interviewers always like this?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TE0uI6StR2Y

[Gregory]

I went to Costco yesterday... it was crowded but everyone was well behaved.

There was not a scrap of tp or paper towels. TP was on my list... we were on our last roll or two. Smart and Final were similarly uncontaminated by any "bath tissue" but a stop at the GV Safeway yielded positive results... the last two 6-packs of overpriced Charmin labeled safe for septics.

All the bs about testing kits... hysteria it is. Fever, dry cough, chest pain/shortness of breath... if you don't got it you don't got it.

I've a couple pulse oxymeters that I use for flying. If i start getting readings like i get at 12k feet, I'll get the attention of the triage nurse...

[scenes]

Gregory: "If i start getting readings like i get at 12k feet, I'll get the attention of the triage nurse..."

That's pretty brilliant if true. Do your oxygen levels go down with pneumonia in a noticeable enough way to be used as a yardstick for hospitalization? Good concept. I did watch a few doctors on TV get asked about determining how sick you really are with the typical results, they never ever want to give straightforward opinions.

I've been watching everything disappear from Amazon. Also, things that can be used as TP instead (not fungible...maybe substitute goods?) have gone away. Paper towels, Kleenex(tm) and it's brethren. Survivalist style stored food, gone. Rice, gone. Canned goods are going away. It shows how shallow JIT delivery is. There's probably an economic paper on scarcity a person could write based purely data collected from Amazon.

Perhaps you could break out your unused Christmas wrapping paper.

[scenes]

re: Toilet paper.

The toilet paper frenzy strikes me as a proxy people are using for doing *something* in a world they have little influence over. It's not really outfitting a bunker, but more just a matter of a little control.

I wonder if epidemiologists factor in crowded panic buying in the reproduction number for a disease. 'Costco makes your RO go up' isn't much of a marketing slogan though.

Related image:
https://i.redd.it/uzc7ow3mm4m41.jpg

[Barry Pruett]

Be safe fellas. The elderly, smokers, and obese folks or folks that have hypertension, diabetes, or anyone with an altered inflammatory system are at higher risk. Be smart.

[George Rebane]

Re blood oxygen levels. Due to some friends illnesses and Jo Ann's recent bout with acute pneumonia, we became familiar with that metric. The bottom line takeaway is to start being concerned when it goes down to 92, and worried when it goes below 90 (call someone then). Low 80s and you're in trouble.
Above 95 is good. The finger sensors work well enough to monitor yourself. Get one (if you can).

[Bill Tozer]

@ 8:38 am re: Toilet Paper

“Meanwhile, I can’t believe it hasn’t occurred to any leftist conspiracy theorists that this whole virus thing is a conspiracy of Big Toilet Paper. After all, the dreaded Koch brothers own Georgia-Pacific, which manufactures . . . toilet paper.”

https://i0.wp.com/www.powerlineblog.com/ed-assets/2020/03/IMG_2670.jpg?w=480&ssl=1

And much more.....some off topic

https://www.powerlineblog.com/archives/2020/03/the-week-in-pictures-one-flu-over-the-cuckoos-nest-edition.php

[Gregory]

Barry

it's unclear what the risk factors for the E-ticket hospital ride *are*.

Elderly, yes. Smokers, yes. Is it hypertension, or smoking? Is it obesity or something correlated with obesity?

Much of the info backing the warnings are guesswork and not much else.

...and iirc the doctor in Wuhan who died after their warnings were suppressed was in good shape and in their '40's.

[Gregory]

"Do your oxygen levels go down with pneumonia in a noticeable enough way to be used as a yardstick for hospitalization?"

Yep. Tell the medic you've seen low 80's and they will blanch. At altitude I've seen '70's before adjusting O2 flow. Quickly. And an EMT i know blanched when I told him about it.

The fingertip units work fine, $30-$35 gets a nice one.

Circa 2001 when my first wife was dying of cancer, the fingertip pulseox was the Nonin "Onyx" model, $400. The hospital pulmonary techs carried them in their pockets.l

[Bill Tozer]

Re: Scenes @ 10:37 PM...

Darn it Scenes. I went to bed thinking about that video and woke up thinking about it.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BYTFk34nhoI
——
Which brings to question, what good is testing anyway? The Wuhan virus is here and will spread. I imagine there are those who go to ER for a scratchy throat, a tick, a runny nose, a stomach ache, to have a splinter removed.

When hundreds (or hundreds of thousands) race off to the hospital because they have the normal signs of the Wuhan virus (cough, not feeling well, slight fever), the hospitals should turn them (the healthy) away...which will piss a lot of people off. What, have our health care system overrun and stretched beyond the max like the detention centers at the southern border have been stretched beyond capacity and overrun while politicians make hay over the chaos?

Those of us who are the most vulnerable to influenza, the seniors, those have had pneumonia once or twice before, and others with compromised immune systems should be the ones admitted to the hospital and put on ventilators when necessary.

But for the younger healthier Moms and Dads and kids, take two aspirins and go away...bug-in. It will pass in a week. You ain’t going to die. The hospitals need to deal with the normal heart failures and diseases, liver problems, broken arms, tests, x-rays, operations, cancer treatments, etc.

Yes, testing does have some purposes, but what good is it when there is no vaccine yet? I suppose if you took Uber and found out later that the driver tested positive, one could use that information to self-isolate...and warn everyone you have been on contact with since the ride.

[fish]

Posted by: scenes | 14 March 2020 at 08:14 AM

Perhaps you could break out your unused Christmas wrapping paper.

I'm just planning on imitating the dog with some spare carpet scraps I still have!

[fish]

CONTEXT!

"My mother once showed me a list of the contagious diseases she survived before the age of 20. On the list were the usual childhood illnesses, along with deadly afflictions like typhoid fever, pneumonia, diphtheria (it killed her older brother), scarlet fever, and the lethal 1918–19 Spanish flu, which took more than 50 million lives around the world."

https://www.city-journal.org/1957-asian-flu-pandemic

[Gregory]

FYI Barry

The CDC's list for higher risk:

Older adults
People who have serious chronic medical conditions like:
o Heart disease
o Diabetes
o Lung disease

That's it.

[scenes]

re: George@9:38AM

Thanks for those numbers, I really appreciate it. I've got one of those things as a fitness tool, so it'll serve double duty.

re: Gregory@12:15PM

FWIW, on a related note, I've seen hypertension mentioned by Chinese doctors as an indicator of "you're in trouble". Of course, no one has indicated whether it's a direct cause or simply an indicator of some other health issue.

A worthwhile lesson in all of this, always worthy of being re-stated, is that when TSHTF, you're on your own.

In other news. Trump has dropped .2% in some poll or the other.

I keed, I keed.

[scenes]

fish: "I'm just planning on imitating the dog with some spare carpet scraps I still have!"

You could re-enact the way Progressives treat the Constitution! A sort of art project!

billt: "Darn it Scenes. I went to bed thinking about that video and woke up thinking about it"

Sorry about that. It's a reason I get all my news from youtube. The talking heads on MSM either (a)try to sell you on their personal religion/kink (b)try to sell you a product or (c) try not to come to the point. The higher on the food chain people are, the less direct they are.

I did have a good idea today though. I saw a giant jug of hand cleaner with a pump at a local business. Trump (or a factotum) should get a few hundred companies to make a jillion gallons of the stuff in plastic bottles and hand them out to the public. It would do more good than these stupid tests, would show some interest in the public, be cheap, would have no need to involve ridiculous CDC/FDA red tape chains given the known formulations.

For all I know, 100% of plastic bottle production is in China now since the US has forgotten the recipe.

[Bill Tozer]

Expert says:

Get plenty of sleep.
Eat properly
Try to break a sweat once a day
Avoid stress.

Who can one avoid stress with all this going on? Riddle me that, Batman. No March Madness! March and April have been cancelled! Cancelled ! And to make matters worse, the next scheduled celebration is Cinco de Mayo....sponsored by Corona Beer! That’s stressful.

Avoid stress. Tell that to to the media ambulance chasers. Oh yah, wash your hands. And if any of you have elderly parents still around, tell them no visitors.

[fish]

You could re-enact the way Progressives treat the Constitution! A sort of art project!

Look for a large naked man conducting a “showing” at any of your finer Quainty Town galleries just as soon as this storm blows through!

“Who can one avoid stress with all this going on? Riddle me that, Batman. No March Madness! March and April have been cancelled! Cancelled ! And to make matters worse, the next scheduled celebration is Cinco de Mayo....sponsored by Corona Beer! That’s stressful.”

William Tozer.....todays comment thread winner!

👍

[Barry Pruett]

Gregory 👍

[Bill Tozer]

Live from New York,, it’s....

Buck Sexton
@BuckSexton
·
Everyone in NYC: “lock the doors, close the windows, totally need to quarantine myself for the next 3 weeks until this blows over”

Also everyone in NYC: “so I ran out of avocados am in Whole Foods now it’s totally packed people shoulder to shoulder some guy just coughed on me.”

[Bill Tozer]

The greatest plans of mice and men have failed again. The matrix is not perfect.
Solution? “Nationalize Hand Sanitizer manufactures” sez Mayor Bill de Blasio.

‘Seller Blocked By Amazon Complains He Can’t Sell His 17,000 Bottles Of Hand Sanitizer’

https://www.dailywire.com/news/seller-blocked-by-amazon-complains-he-cant-sell-his-17000-bottles-of-hand-sanitizer

[Bill Tozer]

They say cockroaches can survive a nuclear blast.....

https://www.facebook.com/photo.php?fbid=10220646971551626&set=a.1389534185800&type=3&theater&ifg=1

[scenes]

re: Oxygen levels.

This doc floating around 4chan shows concern for a surprisingly high oxygen level (<95%)

https://ucdavis365-my.sharepoint.com/:w:/g/personal/dvpnguyen_ucdavis_edu/ES_O_9yoVeJFjpupkaTAYPABNwfWcF9qzu88lkeZMfuQkw?rtime=bEebVGvI10g

I can't vouch for the source of course, it might be BS.

[Gregory]

scenes 521pm

that document would need adjusting for altitude (3000') in grass valley. <92% would be my guess to recommend IVR with Wuhan bug.

http://www.high-altitude-medicine.com/SaO2-table.html

[scenes]

"that document would need adjusting for altitude (3000') in grass valley. <92% would be my guess to recommend IVR with Wuhan bug."

That sounds like a good point. My theory is to take a baseline reading while I'm well and keep it in mind. 98% 56bpm Still ticking along. I'd be surprised if they were all that accurate, at least the oxygen level bit. But it's a smart concept to keep a fingermeter in the arsenal in my Scenes from the Apocalypse Bunker.

A related news item.
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/14/technology/coronavirus-purell-wipes-amazon-sellers.html

I did run into a great idea on 4chan on how to deal with the Chinese in this matter.

Sue the bastards.

[scenes]

I thought of another policy the administration could implement in addition to making millions of TrumpHandSanitizer(tm) jugs to hand out (cheap, effective, good public relations).

Force the insurance companies to OK prescriptions out a few months. It would be nice to be able to stop by a pharmacy and get pills going out to June without some sort of crazy rigamarole with a primary care physician and the saint-like insurance guys.

[scenes]

hah. Another item in my Amazon research that is completely sold out. Chest freezers.

I wonder if there's been a run on the gun stores.

[Bill Tozer]

Knowledge is Good: Apocalypse Meow

https://knowledgeisgood.net/2020/03/14/apocalypse-meow/

[Buck Sexton]

The Governor of Illinois got a call from a White House staffer who yelled at him because the Governor tweeted that US Customs is woefully underprepared for people trying to beat the flight ban at O'Hair airport.

Wall Street journal admitted a couple of days ago that the Trump administration is finally beginning to get their act together.

The President is a follower, not a leader.

[Walt]

"jon" is back.
Posing as Glenn Beck's sidekick is pretty low.

[Buck Sexton]

January 22: “We have it totally under control. It’s one person coming in from China. It’s going to be just fine.”

February 2: “We pretty much shut it down coming in from China.”

February 24: “The Coronavirus is very much under control in the USA… Stock Market starting to look very good to me!”

February 25: “CDC and my Administration are doing a GREAT job of handling Coronavirus.”

February 25: “I think that's a problem that’s going to go away… They have studied it. They know very much. In fact, we’re very close to a vaccine.”

February 26: “The 15 (cases in the US) within a couple of days is going to be down to close to zero.”

February 26: “We're going very substantially down, not up.”

February 27: “One day it’s like a miracle, it will disappear.”

February 28: “We're ordering a lot of supplies. We're ordering a lot of, uh, elements that frankly we wouldn't be ordering unless it was something like this. But we're ordering a lot of different elements of medical.”

March 2: “You take a solid flu vaccine, you don't think that could have an impact, or much of an impact, on corona?”

March 2: “A lot of things are happening, a lot of very exciting things are happening and they’re happening very rapidly.”

March 4: “If we have thousands or hundreds of thousands of people that get better just by, you know, sitting around and even going to work — some of them go to work, but they get better.”

March 5: “I NEVER said people that are feeling sick should go to work.”

March 5: “The United States… has, as of now, only 129 cases… and 11 deaths. We are working very hard to keep these numbers as low as possible!”

March 6: “I think we’re doing a really good job in this country at keeping it down… a tremendous job at keeping it down.”

March 6: Anybody right now, and yesterday, anybody that needs a test gets a test. They’re there. And the tests are beautiful…. the tests are all perfect like the letter was perfect. The transcription was perfect. Right? This was not as perfect as that but pretty good.”

March 6: “I like this stuff. I really get it. People are surprised that I understand it… Every one of these doctors said, ‘How do you know so much about this?’ Maybe I have a natural ability. Maybe I should have done that instead of running for president.”

March 6: “I don't need to have the numbers double because of one ship that wasn't our fault.”

March 7: “We’ll hold tremendous rallies...I’m not concerned at all.”

March 8: “We have a perfectly coordinated and fine tuned plan at the White House for our attack on coronavirus.”

March 9: “This blindsided the world.”

March 10: "Our CoronaVirus Team has been doing a great job. Even Democrat governors have been VERY complimentary!"

March 11: "I am fully prepared to use the full power of the Federal Government to deal with our current challenge of the CoronaVirus!"

March 12: "108 countries are dealing with the CoronaVirus problem, some of which we are helping!"

March 13: "To this point, and because we have had a very strong border policy, we have had 40 deaths related to CoronaVirus. If we had weak or open borders, that number would be many times higher!"

March 13: "Today I am declaring a national emergency. Two very big words,"

March 13. "No, I don't take responsibility at all. Because we were given a set of circumstances, given rules, regulations, and specifications from a different time. It wasn't meant for this kind of an event, with the kind of numbers that we are talking about."

[Buck Sexton]

Follower, not a leader.

[Walt]

Yup,, the TROLL is back.

[Scott O]

BS 7:42 - "...US Customs is woefully underprepared for people trying to beat the flight ban at O'Hair airport."
Yeah - Customs should have hundreds of trained staff sitting around for years on standby just waiting for occasions such as this.
Pritzker is hardly in a position to complain. Illinois is a basket case state with far worse problems than what's going on at O'Hare.
The crush at O'Hare will subside shortly - the woes of Illinois are constant.

[scenes]

Walt: "
"jon" is back.
Posing as Glenn Beck's sidekick is pretty low."

Just another cut 'n paste machine. It would be simpler to just give a link to someone else's unattributed list.

As usual, and it doesn't matter who the President is, they are surrounded by experts (and 'experts') and wing it. It's fair game to enlist the pandemic into the Presidential campaign, and at least for once it's not all just an outright fabrication, but the administration response has been normal. The CDC screwing up on the tests is as per usual.

It's interesting to look at the past and think about how broken these bureaucratic systems can be.

https://www.newscientist.com/article/dn18063-timeline-the-secret-history-of-swine-flu/

Money shot: "Six months after swine flu first shot to world attention, US President Barack Obama declares the virus a national emergency."

The real answer is that the gubmint ain't gonna save yer ass in an emergency. Depending on it in a pinch is the domain of urban coffee shop economists and older single liberal females.

[scenes]

Walt: "Yup,, the TROLL is back."

It's no thang. Trumphate keeps people like that going, even when their daily life hasn't changed a bit for years. It's like reading a Ron Lowe editorial, craziness derived from an echo chamber while having no skin in the game.

I was thinking about some things just sitting here.

. Will peoples' newfound interest in hygiene result in a drop in the normal cold/flu season?
. Will airliners quit recirculating so much air? (are they able to do that?)
. Will older people start looking at younger people as disease carriers? Turnabout is fair play I guess.
. Just imagine the jump in bunker building by the rich ('vacation homes') in a year. Best to get in on the ground floor.

I'm still watching Amazon. It's fun to think of useful hunkerin' down items and see which are out-of-stock.

[L]

The dim poseur @ 8;42 really ought to be ashamed of himself for finding such joy in the misfortune of his fellow Americans, but we all know these folk left conscience behind after the 6th grade and manage nicely without.

Given their collectivist attitude towards savings and investment, their joy at the market situation is at least understandable (if not forgivable),but the cavalier attitude towards others lives is reprehensible.

No, jerk, this isn't going to get Cheeto Jesus either- too early; it'll all be over even before sleepy Joe has to face the debate stage.

Some day I'll tell you what I really think of these sub-human visitors here.

[Bill Tozer]

Oh my, we have a Buck Sexton troll here.

I just finished re-reading this post ‘COVID Testing – Unclear on the Concept’ including the last update. It’s true. The CDC bobbled the ball out of the gate. The test kits are given to the state health departments, and if a doctor wants to order one for a patient, the doc must call the state department and explain why. Also, the CDC would not approve a test (like the swab method) if they did not approve of the maker/manufacturer first...by one of their approved vendors and following their standards. Luckily Trump blew out the roadblocks and cut through that crap. Now, even the Mayo Clinic is making test kits, along with scores of other companies. The original CDC kits where found to be sub-par and even wrong. So, we lost valuable time and now it’s water under the bridge. Moving forward.

Disturbing news from Italy. Now they are seeing folks who felt bad, self isolated, and after a week are worse off and in worse shape instead of the virus passing. Disturbing? Yes, because this latest batch are Italians around 50 years of age. The other disturbing news is they are not taking in some of the elderly at the hospitals for care because the wards are overflowing, their health care system stretched, and the doctors are now in the position of who will live and who will die. Just as predicted. Save the younger and healthy, let Grandma go how to die. Sad but true.

Newt G. is stuck in Milan, Italy. He has been posting from his hideaway. He is reporting the same thing...that doctors are now deciding who to be admitted, who to put on ventilators, and who is turned away. Who to try to save and who is not worth saving and who is not worth the effort. There is not room at the inn for everybody. Death panels just as predicted.
The past 24 hours has seen 250 deaths in Italy, biggest single day death...by far.

Back on the States, the first NY death has been reported by Gov Cuomo on Friday. An 80 year old woman with emphysema. In hospital since the 3rd of March, died ten days later.

Andrew Cuomo
✔
@NYGovCuomo
I am saddened to report the #COVID19-related death of an 82-year-old women in NYC who had a pre-existing respiratory disease (emphysema).

https://www.oann.com/n-y-gov-cuomo-confirms-first-coronavirus-related-death-in-state/

It’s almost like now test kits are akin to comfort food or having 96 rolls of toilet paper.

[Gregory]

Don't cough on me!

https://cdn.shopify.com/s/files/1/1397/2377/products/dont-cough-on-me-coronavirus-gadsden-snake-shirt_18bfa018-3f0e-4d7f-b631-9c3ae30892c4_2048x.jpg?v=1584114577

[scenes]

re: BillT@9:36

It's interesting watching various nations' healthcare systems get stress tested. There'll be valuable lessons, quickly forgotten, at the end of the day.

Fer sure the TDS crowd will be full of "Trump didn't do enough" "Trump wants to declare martial law" "Trump didn't make a vaccine in his secret Lab of Evil over the weekend" in the meantime, but that's just a side effect of the derangement. In the meantime, large bureaucracies will keep on ambling along.

I don't doubt that the CDC could stand to be blown up at the end of this. It's bound to have accumulated institutional cruft, peoples' science hobbies, and a lack of mission over time, but from the outside it's hard to tell what's wrong. For all I know they have a great big Global Warmingcooling & Diversity Division since it's likely they've been caught into the same mission creep as the rest of Team Blue government (like NASA for example).

[Bill Tozer]

Scenes @ 9:57 AM

Trump's Ultrasonic Whistle Exposes Vermin Infestation

https://www.americanthinker.com/articles/2020/03/trumps_ultrasonic_whistle_exposes_vermin_infestation.html

[scenes]

It's been alluded to a few times here via other articles, but here's the main read...

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/10/us/coronavirus-testing-delays.html

Our local Blue Mob could really stand to read that (hey, it's even from a trusted source!) and think about their beloved federal government.

No doubt the main problem is that we haven't tried real socialism yet.

Maybe I'm being unfair and parts of the Blue Mob are actually in favor of free markets, so long as it includes completely open borders and affirmative action (especially for mentally ill men in dresses)... amendments 1 and 2 in The Constitution 2.0.