Hunker Down Diary – 30mar20 (updated)

George Rebane

When there's a problem, don't bet against government as being its source.

For the Rebanes today is HD23.  Given the comment stream under the 26mar20 posting of HDD, in addition to sharing my own hunker down doings, I am going to make this an ongoing repository of readers’ experiences, views, and opinions concerning the Covid19 pandemic.  Hopefully we will draw strength and get a laugh or two from each other’s fears, feats, and foibles as we cope and spend time with family (and friends?) in close quarters for the duration.

Jo Ann and I have taken this time to finish long-languishing projects, add to our already extensive reading lists, and continue our normal intercourse with family and friends through new means of distance socializing.  My own direction has been, unsurprisingly, to look at our cultural changes and public policies that are driven by the current social distancing and economic slowdown.   When we emerge on the other side, things are going to be markedly different in how we conduct our lives.  I intend to offer a structured list of the affected areas which I hope will draw some stimulating discussion and, of course, expansion from the fertile minds of RR readers.

In the meantime, I share with you the scariest news I’ve heard about C19 that was just published by the LA Times (here or here) – the virus is definitely and pervasively transmitted by aerosols exhaled by pre-symptomatic infected people, aerosols which can dwell for hours suspended in the air we breathe.

An interim C19 ‘vaccine’?  On the more hopeful side, the biggest and most suppressed news is about the efficacy of hydro-chloroquine (HCQ) in protecting against C19 onset, and the combination of HCQ and azithromycin (AZM) in treating the disease after onset of symptoms.  Multiple reports have now emerged about the successes in the use of these drugs in controlled hospital settings here and abroad. (here and here)  So here’s an idea for a possible interim C19 vaccine from Dr Rebane (PhD NOT MD) – administer a sequence or combination of (weakened if possible) C19 virus and/then HCQ, either one after the other, say, a day apart, or together in a cocktail.  The hopeful idea being that the virus would set off the body’s natural mechanism for producing C19 antibodies, and the presence of HCQ would ameliorate the onset of the disease, allowing the individual to recover with an effective level of immunity.  I wouldn’t recommend this to people with pre-existing medical conditions that already make them more vulnerable to C19.  Anyway, as always, readers’ thoughts on this are most welcome.

On the more mundane side, it’s worth noting with some alarm that our stores continue to be out of sanitary and paper products.  Hunker down hoarding continues to take its toll on many things, and now more than ever since President Trump has extended the HD advisory to last through April.

Finally, my little fevered brain, long used to noodling about technical esoteria, has been working on a home-brewed epidemiological spreading model in order to examine quantitatively the effects of certain epidemic response policies and the potential impact of medical interventions.  So, as a systems modeler I read a couple of papers on such models and found them unnecessarily obtuse, and altogether unavailable for simply downloading and playing with them.  I call my home brew Epidyne2 which has at least the complexity of the models used by the big kids, and can answer most (all?) the same questions.  Right now I’m going through the final phases of debugging and testing the code, and I’ll share the complete model in spreadsheet form so that anyone who is interested can play with it.  The spread of a contagious disease in a constrained population is a fascinating and highly non-linear process, and also very revealing when you get to play with what I will offer as a perhaps not-so-toy tool.

Anyway, to whet your curiosity, here’s an output plot of a test run.  In this scenario the total vulnerable and uninfected population (popU) numbers 100M (say, the approx US pop who don’t isolate themselves and remain vulnerable).  The disease starts with the introduction of 1,000 infected people (popI).  The timescale (horizontal axis) is in weeks.  The reproduction rate of the disease (rI) is variable, and is a function of the various population cohorts that employs some nice mathematics to account for what epidemiologists call ‘herd immunity’ which plays a critical part in how contagious diseases spread in a population.

The plot displays five population cohorts over a period of 60 weeks – popTot (cyan) is the total vulnerable population which in this scenario remains constant, but which can also be varied to study the effects of different levels of time-dependent imposed quarantines and self-isolation. popU (blue) is the uninfected population.  popI (red) is the infected population (here we take the C19 experience that once a person becomes infected, he will take nI = 4 weeks to either die or recover and be immune.  The recovered cohort is popR (green), and the dear departed is popD (black).

Here we see that the disease plays itself out in less than 25 weeks from onset.  The maximum number infected (popI) will number about 62M in week 18.  The appropriately time-lagged recovered (popR) and deceased (popD) cohorts stabilize at 72.5M and 2.25M respectively.  In this scenario I have set at two the max weekly reproduction rate (rImax) per pre-symptomatic person and the death rate (rD) at 3%.  This rate will reduce as herd immunity takes effect.  And, as shown, the disease plays itself out with approximately 25M having never been infected.

For those who can’t wait for my post on Epidyne2, and want to examine in more detail, or perhaps even program up the model in spreadsheet form (a formidable undertaking), I will offer the iterative equations in an update to this post.

[Update] Here is the complete Epidyne2 model that can be programmed into Excel.  Click on image to get a more readable version.

Comments

[scenes]

. I was considering the 'unhoused individuals' today and noticing fewer but crazier examples. It occurred to me that the lack of hubbub of everyday life is going to send them off the deep end. No occasional dollars to buy drugs and beer, no humanity to watch. OTOH, I betcha that you'll read epidemiology papers in a few years about the spread of the virus via temporary sheltering of them. Stick a bunch of outdoors life enthusiasts in an enclosed area and, voila', virus spread. Time to inundate the local hospital. It would be a helluva thing if HH ended up with 100% of the ventilators.

. There must be somebody out there applying machine learning against epidemic models. Obviously a person could write a big ol' model, put some knobs on various public policies, and run it for a few million iterations. You do have to wonder if anything like that acts like real life at all but it would be an interesting exercise.

. What to do with the Trumpbux. I'm bored with the idea of military-appearing rifles so a breakdown lever action in .223 might be just the thing. In stainless, Maybe a leather fringe coat. In the upcoming apocalypse a person needs to live it in style.

. Personally I'm keeping an eye on nursing, supply chain guys, and New York city forums. Forewarned is forearmed (or is it fourarmed? kind of a cut-rate Ganesh).

. The virus hanging in the air thing has been known for some time, although I haven't seen much interest in indirect vented eye protection to wear while shopping for canned vegetables. It's even available at Amazon, so beat the rush. Now that Fauci admitted that N95 masks are a good thing and that they were fibbing, reuse protocol will become all the rage.

[scenes]

GeorgeR@OP

I'd be happy to look at the equations. I have to admit that my approach would be to brute force some sort of particle system (particles being people of course, just like Soylent Green). Heck, with enough rented computer, I suppose a person could treat each virus as it's own agent.

[scenes]

. Here's a thought. What'll be the effect of the Wuhan Virus on the census? You could also make an argument for all staunch California Republicans to ignore the census, maybe counteract the illegal alien count in getting US House members.

[George Rebane]

scenes 1241pm - As you will see, Epidyne2 is pretty much brute force, and therefore very practical. Most of the professional models mess with 50Kft level theory which consist of a set of linear differential eqns that succumb to analytical solutions having eigenvalues and such - very impractical. The real world is highly non-linear with input functions and time-series which require numerical solutions through iterative approaches like Epidyne2. I look forward to your comments.

BTW, my current report on aerosol transmission is not an epiphany, it confirms that which I reported days ago in a manner that I, and apparently everyone else, have not witnessed in such a profound expression. Exhaled C19 viruses wafting for hours (not minutes) in infectable concentrations is disturbing news indeed.

[scenes]

re: GeorgeR@1:06PM

It would be interesting to get a real-deal expert on the telly to talk about virus hang time, lifetime on surface, effect of temperature/sunlight etc. There is bound to be an ex Biopreparat employee who has all this information at their gloved fingertips. I would trust that source more than some NIH talking head.

Be careful at the store and check your mask fit.

[Don Bessee]

Creepy grampa joe brain fart #98795

https://www.breitbart.com/clips/2020/03/30/biden-struggles-with-coronavirus-question-trump-has-to-wait-until-the-cases-before-anything-happens/

;-)

[Walt]

Libs showing their true colors.
But I'm sure there is a known Proggy here(maybe two) who
would cheer her on.
https://www.breitbart.com/politics/2020/03/30/top-hospital-executive-fired-for-mocking-trump-supporters/
"Laura Krolczyk, Roswell Park Comprehensive Cancer Center’s vice president for external affairs, was fired last week by the hospital, according to spokeswoman Annie Deck-Miller in a statement to Buffalo News.

“Trump supporters need to pledge to give up their ventilators for someone else … and not go to the hospital,” Krolczyk replied.

LaTrovato responded once more and said, “I think they should be the only ones in packed churches on Sunday.”

“They should barricade themselves in there and ride this out,” Krolczyk said. "

[Bill Tozer]

Walt

We ain’t seen nuthin’ yet. Imagine what they will be like on week 4 on the new 4 1/2 week projection of the Great Hunkering Down. Man, they will be all weak-kneed and shaking in fear and ending up like a tub of Jell-O at this rate. Bet they don’t make it to April 27. Heck, I wonder if they will make it to April Fools Day. Strawberry Festival @ Fairgrounds cancelled for year. And don’t forgot all those Sports Junkies. Talk about withdrawal symptoms. Yep, it’s going to get interesting to watch.

Homebound: 28 Days Later. Kinda nice watching those anvils hitting Wile E Coyote on the head, complete with the big egg sized welt on top of the mellon.
—————
Paraphrase a couples of sentences I heard. A little birdie told me...

“What is with this toilet paper panic? White suburban people racing out to buy big packages of toilet paper. Is this what our nation has become? The American people are crazy.”

https://www.facebook.com/photo.php?fbid=10219217133712231&set=a.1026208368539&type=3&theater

[Don Bessee]

The chi coms are working hard to erase the facts -

Dr. Ai Fen, director of emergency management at Wuhan Central Hospital and one of the first doctors to blow the whistle on the coronavirus epidemic at a time when the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) was desperate to conceal it, has reportedly vanished.

She began speaking out against the CCP two weeks ago, beginning with an interview that Chinese censors relentlessly suppressed.

Ai’s interview in early March was a courageous indictment of Communist Party leadership for concealing the epidemic, and especially for denying that the Wuhan virus could be transmitted between humans. She said doctors in Wuhan knew the virus could pass between humans weeks before the CCP admitted it to the world, and blamed herself for failing to speak out despite orders to keep quiet.

Of her early role in attempting to spread the word about the coronavirus, Ai said: “I am not a whistleblower. I am the one who provided the whistle.”

The CCP’s censorship machine went into overdrive stamping out Ai’s interview, hunting it down and deleting it as it spread through social media and forcing the paper that interviewed Ai to effectively pretend the interview never happened.

Australian media noted over the weekend that Ai has “disappeared,” as 60 Minutes Australia put it.

https://www.breitbart.com/national-security/2020/03/30/australian-report-wuhan-whistleblower-dr-ai-fen-has-disappeared/

;-)

[Bill Tozer]

HD Diary.

Thoughts of a madman:

-Why don’t they just call it distancing. We all know what they means.

-My Internet has been as bad as dialup lately, Unstable would be an accurate observation. I know exactly why. It started as soon as The People got their TP. Now, it got worse. No sports on TV, everybody ordered to shelter-n-place and now you idiots are binge streaming Netflix. Stop it. Think of us ole po’ folk for once. Greedy things you are.

[Don Bessee]

Creepy grampa joe got in front of a mic again -

“I think people should check that because there’s something going on. I don’t think it’s hoarding. I think it’s maybe worse than hoarding,” he said. “Check it out. I don’t know. I think that’s for other people to figure out.”

“Are they going out the back door?” he added.

A mask manufacturer present at the briefing backed up those numbers.

The fact that crucial media supplies are being stolen from hospitals, the fact there is a black market for this stuff, is not news.

No less than Gov. Andrew Cuomo spoke of it about three weeks ago, and there have been all kinds of reports about this problem, and not just here in America, but elsewhere in the world.

There is nothing controversial about what Trump said, especially in light of the news that doctors themselves are reportedly “hoarding” the anti-malaria drug that looks promising in treating the coronavirus.

By any sane measure, the president is absolutely correct to call attention to this problem, but China Joe Biden doesn’t think it’s a problem, so he’s screaming about it being a conspiracy theory.

In a statement released Sunday, the same guy who declared Trump’s prescient travel bans racist, said Trump’s concerns about mask stealing are “ridiculous and completely false.”

“Today’s conspiracy mongering by our President is among the most reckless and ignorant moves he has made during this crisis, and there have been many,” the statement read in part.

This is utterly bizarre.
The Democrat governor of New York has been concerned about this for weeks…
There are news reports from all around the country about this theft…
A hospital that can only hold so many patients increases its order times ten…

But Biden’s still popping off about “conspiracy mongering” in the face of all this evidence, which is not only brazenly political, but dangerous.

It only makes sense, given human nature and our current predicament (not to mention media reports), that there’s a black market for this stuff at worst and that people are hoarding this stuff for themselves and their families as best, but Slow Joe doesn’t want anything done about it, even though it may cost people their lives.

What’s more, if you click on those links, in some cases, you have healthcare professionals themselves worrying about this theft, and for good reason: they don’t want to get sick, and when more of them get sick, fewer sick people can be treated.

Should we not be listening to the people on the front lines, Joe?

But no one in the media will ask him this, just like no one in the media will ask him about his deadly opposition to Trump’s vital travel bans.

And, of course, the fake news media are also attacking Trump for expressing concern over something they themselves have reported on.

https://www.breitbart.com/politics/2020/03/30/biden-dismisses-numerous-reports-mask-theft-accuse-trump-conspiracy-mongering/

;-)

Democrats sure got it good.

[Don Bessee]

Wimbledon was scheduled to start June 29th, we may be hunkering down longer than we think -

https://www.usatoday.com/story/sports/tennis/2020/03/30/wimbledon-canceled-due-coronavirus-says-german-tennis-official/5085866002/

;-)

[Don Bessee]

The chi coms emperor xi has no clothes -

Boris Johnson's government is reportedly furious with China's handling of the coronavirus, with UK officials quoted on Sunday warning that Beijing faces a "reckoning" once the COVID-19 crisis is over.

UK government officials believe China is spreading disinformation about the severity of the coronavirus outbreak in its country, the Mail on Sunday reports.

The newspaper says scientists have warned Johnson that China could have downplayed its number of confirmed cases of the coronavirus "by a factor of 15 to 40 times." China had reported just 81,439 at the time of writing.

https://www.yahoo.com/news/boris-johnsons-government-reportedly-furious-075257081.html

;-)

[Don Bessee]

The chi coms are still what they are and we pay the price -

The Netherlands is the latest country to reject China-made coronavirus testing kits and other protective gear, calling the items substandard and raising serious questions about the quality of the supplies Beijing is selling to the world.

The Netherlands joins Spain, Turkey, Georgia, and the Czech Republic in their concerns over masks and test kits. The claims come as the number of confirmed COVID-19 cases surge in the United States and Europe, highlighting the dependence many countries have on Chinese imports.

https://www.foxnews.com/world/netherlands-becomes-latest-country-to-reject-china-made-coronavirus-test-kits-gear

;-)

[scenes]

Good thing.

J&J, Moderna sign deals with U.S. to produce huge quantity of possible coronavirus vaccines
https://mobile.reuters.com/article/amp/idUSKBN21H1OY

Like most big problems, it'll be solved as a series of small solutions.

[Don Bessee]

Looks like garcettis fresh organic arugula jones aint gonna get a fix -

L.A. Mayor Listens ...
Shuts Down Farmer's Markets

https://www.tmz.com/?adid=TMZ_Web_Nav_News

;-)

[scenes]

Might want to throw another can of vegetables in the cart next time at the store.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-03-27/food-workers-getting-sick-is-the-latest-threat-to-world-supply

Not to overstate the situation, just thinking out loud.

A thing I'm not seeing...it would be an interesting angle if there were an executive order to not export food. If it really does hit farm workers and distribution networks at the supply end, I could see a worldwide shutdown of food exports. A big problem for some countries.

[scenes]

Not a bad video

Whistleblowers silenced by China could have stopped global coronavirus spread | 60 Minutes Australia
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pEQcvcyzQGE

Although it's not clear to me how Donald Trump was involved, someone will find a way.

[Don Bessee]

That's not helpful @730 There are lots of idled workers who need to work. God Bless the truckers!
====================================================

Hey Dr R, that post about the effects on views I did is already coming true. OH MY what will the socialist dems do!

https://www.breitbart.com/politics/2020/03/30/harvard-harris-poll-5-in-6-americans-want-to-end-immigration-from-mexico/

;-)

[Bill Tozer]

Confessions of a warehouse worker

‘Warehouse Work in an Age of Contagion’

“As regular readers of Quillette will know, I work at a warehouse in West Sacramento, California, where every workday I toil in close quarters with dozens of other employees. In the days before the advent of the novel coronavirus pandemic, that wasn’t a problem. Now, however, it’s a little bit frightening. Last week, along with all other members of the company’s workforce, I received an email informing me that a supplier of surgical masks for all warehouse workers hasn’t yet been found. In the meantime, employees are improvising. People are covering their faces with bandanas, like stagecoach bandits in the Old West. Others are wearing ski masks, like contemporary bank robbers. Some wear scarves around their faces, even though the weather is fairly warm now. And some have even managed to procure actual facemasks. But most of the employees, like me, work uncovered.“

https://quillette.com/2020/03/30/warehouse-work-in-an-age-of-contagion/

[scenes]

Nevada County count up to 21. 15 in the 'East County'.

Since Truckee is about the size of GV + NC, what's the deal?

Unlike LA, NYC, northern Italy, you can't blame a large Chinese population with plane tickets.

Is it just a statistical anomaly (EZ to do with small numbers) or the fabled vacation home invasion at work?

[scenes]

moi: " the fabled vacation home invasion at work?"

George, maybe you need to whistle up another Quad 50, although I'm not sure where to place it.

[Walt]

Scenes.. The AG. inspection station on 80?

[George Rebane]

scenes 927am - Not sure it will come to that, but history tells us that the spread of plagues in the real old days (13th, 14th centuries) people took matters into their own hands to stop travelers from reaching their towns and cities.

[Walt]

No,,no.... Scratch that. The West bound rest stop at the summit.

[Walt]

It was just a matter of time.
https://dailycaller.com/2020/03/31/cnn-chris-cuomo-tests-positive-coronavirus/

[Bill Tozer]

Scenes @ 7:50 pm

“Not a bad video”....... “Although it's not clear to me how Donald Trump was involved, someone will find a way.”

As sure as night follows day, The Queen of the Damned has started with the ole “We need an investigation into what did Trump know and when did he know it.”

[Don Bessee]

Americans are still feeling good about things -

The present situation component fell from 169.3 to 167.7, a small decline to a still historically elevated level, indicating that U.S. consumers felt comfortable with their jobs and business conditions even as many parts of the economy began to shut down in March.

https://www.breitbart.com/economy/2020/03/31/u-s-consumer-confidence-holds-up-better-than-expected/

;-)

[Bill Tozer]

Part 2: “Although it's not clear to me how Donald Trump was involved, someone will find a way.”

Montage of Mayor Wilhelm.

https://news.grabien.com/story-compilation-nyc-mayor-bill-de-blasio-downplaying-covid-19-le

PELOSI LAST MONTH IN SAN FRAN’S CHINATOWN DURING CORONAVIRUS OUTBREAK: ‘COME JOIN US!’
‘We do want to say to people, come to Chinatown, here we are … come join us’

https://news.grabien.com/story-pelosi-last-month-san-frans-chinatown-during-coronavirus-out

NEW ORLEANS EMS OFFICIAL A WEEK BEFORE MARDI GRAS.: DON’T WORRY, THERE’S NO CORONAVIRUS AROUND US
‘There is no concern at this time for coronavirus in our region … the risk for us is very low

And on and on it goes.
Well, I for one am glad I don’t listen to those fools. Safety first and all that.
—————————————
March has been a long month.

OBSERVATIONS ON THE GREAT HUNKERING (8)

https://www.powerlineblog.com/archives/2020/03/observations-on-the-great-hunkering-8.php

[George Rebane]

re BillT 1027am - One should also counter Pariah Pelosi, 'How many did you kill by inviting people to gather in large groups and infect each other?'

[Bill Tozer]

Some don’t listen to us hunkering downers. A girl is going to do what a girl is going to do.

New Jersey woman charged with violating stay-at-home order after throwing Molotov cocktail at boyfriend's house

https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/news/new-jersey-woman-charged-with-violating-stay-at-home-order-after-throwing-molotov-cocktail-at-boyfriends-house

If this Great Hunkering Down continues for a couple more months' expect wholesale (mass) non-compliance.
———————
“National gas average is $1.99/gal. Bummer man. Cheap gas and nowhere to go.”—Thoughts of a Madman.

[Bill Tozer]

I am old enough to remember when crisis meant impeachment.

‘Just two months ago, 'crisis' meant impeachment’

http://www.jewishworldreview.com/0320/lowry033120.php3
————————
VDH: ‘Coronavirus: The California Herd’

“By now, California should be, as predicted in so many models, ground zero of infection.”

https://www.nationalreview.com/2020/03/coronavirus-pandemic-california-herd-immunity/

[scenes]

billT@12:27

"THE GREAT HUNKERING"

That's brilliant, whoever the author is. I declare that the official name of the era, or at least stage 1 of something bigger.

[scenes]

billT@12:27

"THE GREAT HUNKERING"

That's brilliant, whoever the author is. I declare that the official name of the era, or at least stage 1 of something bigger.

[scenes]

Somebody should get a little trophy for this.

https://i.redd.it/yzajtwnqw1q41.jpg

[scenes]

Take it for what it's worth.

https://news.yahoo.com/suspected-sars-virus-and-flu-found-in-luggage-fbi-report-describes-chinas-biosecurity-risk-144526820.html

of course, the absolutely most important thing is brought up:

"But the FBI’s focus on China and Chinese scientists is also raising concerns among some academics, who fear it smacks of profiling. “I am concerned that the current trend in national security is toward profiling against people of Chinese descent,” said Nicholas Evans, an assistant professor at the University of Massachusetts Lowell who specializes in medical ethics. “That’s not only racist, it’s bad practice. FBI and other intelligence and law enforcement attempts at profiling have very often been harmful without making us any safer.”"

Now, if the smuggler was only a man in a dress, we could get a two-fer.

[Don Bessee]

Chi coms will be chi coms -

https://www.breitbart.com/national-security/2020/03/30/chinese-media-brag-of-roaring-economy-from-selling-faulty-medical-equipment/

;-)

[scenes]

Just one of those things you run into.

https://twitter.com/SalihHudayar/status/1244417505931808773

[George Rebane]

scenes 157pm - Great pick-up; have you seen any major outlet reporting on this? Clearly CDC and NIH were asleep at the switch even after SARS hit. But the thing that's clear to all the nation's leftwingnuts (especially our local ones) is that the whole thing is Trump's fault.

[Bill Tozer]

WALSH: Politicians Are Seizing Virtually Unlimited Power. Do You Think They’re Ever Going To Relinquish It?

“Over the weekend, New York Mayor Bill de Blasio warned that “synagogues” and “churches” that disobey his order to remain shut down may be closed permanently as punishment. One can’t help but notice that the good mayor conspicuously omitted one type of worship facility from this dire warning. But whether mosques are exempt or not, the bigger issue is that Bill de Blasio certainly does not have the authority to permanently close places of worship as a punitive measure for defying his commands. He has the word “mayor” in front of his name, not “sultan” or “king” or “supreme leader.” And the First Amendment still exists, even if he’d prefer to pretend otherwise.........

The really worrisome thing is that so many citizens of this country seem to be accepting this state of affairs without question. Indeed, those who question it are liable to be shouted down by the unquestioning. I suppose the latter camp believes the government will kindly relinquish its dictatorial powers once this crisis is at an end. But history reveals them as gullible fools. Governments never give up power once attained. They only seek to normalize it and bide their time until even the questioning get used to it.“

https://www.dailywire.com/news/walsh-politicians-are-seizing-virtually-unlimited-power-do-you-think-theyre-ever-going-to-relinquish-it?

[Walt]

Dear Diary. It's a good day for a slab of ribs and tater salad.
Heck. We may even just open one of those Wiese food tubs just for kicks. This pandemic IS what we stashed them away for GOD knows how long ago,,, right? Just for a side dish. Southwest rice?
There are perks to not living in the concrete jungle and suburbia. No busybody snitch to call the cops ratting you out for being outside. (the scanner tells the story)

[Bill Tozer]

Pentagon has not yet sent 2,000 ventilators due to lack of shipment location

https://thehill.com/policy/defense/490484-pentagon-has-not-yet-sent-2000-ventilators-due-to-lack-of-shipment-location

I don’t care. It’s all Orange Man Bad’s fault.

[scenes]

re: GeorgeR@3:28

"have you seen any major outlet reporting on this? "

Nah. I expect that if they do, it'll be about how Trump read this article 13 years ago and didn't act on it.

Some odds 'n ends

https://twitter.com/jenniferatntd/status/1244272262284554241
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=msrqE87yTRs
https://www.amazon.com/April-Story-Thermometer-Non-Contact-Temperature/dp/B085S1SCXQ/

According to a redditor, this last one sez: "In essence the writing that goes down vertically states I wish your whole family dies. The horizontal writing states I wish when there is what we call red events aka weddings there will be white events aka funerals and when there is white events there will be red. It’s a really bad jinx to say your family will never have peace".

Gotta love that in addition to the 5:1 price increase on what is probably a defective thermometer.

[Don Bessee]

I wondered why that had not happened -

https://www.yahoo.com/finance/news/walmart-makes-a-huge-change-to-its-stores-because-of-the-coronavirus-pandemic-single-direction-aisles-161441040.html

;-)

[scenes]

A decent way to keep track of the WHO's public opinion.

https://www.who.int/emergencies/diseases/novel-coronavirus-2019/situation-reports

[Walt]

You would think this guy is the emperor of China, or WWII Japan.
https://www.rappler.com/nation/256457-duterte-draws-flak-saying-frontliners-lucky-die-philippines
"MANILA, Philippines – President Rodrigo Duterte has drawn strong criticism for romanticizing the deaths of medical personnel on the front lines of the coronavirus outbreak in the country when he said they were “lucky” to die in the service of the Philippines."

But will our resident LIBS do the same for his majesty Gavin Nesom? They blindly follow the DEM donkey and gleefully pick up whatever it drops as it is.

[Don Bessee]

Its painfully obvious but not to the chi com party parrots of the left -

https://www.breitbart.com/politics/2020/03/31/dr-deborah-birx-incomplete-chinese-data-misled-experts-on-seriousness-of-coronavirus/

;-)

[Walt]

Those Calif. LIB bastards....
"Supervisor David Rabbitt defended Godley, citing his hard work. He called for more lax rules for public servants like Godley or health care professionals."
https://www.foxnews.com/us/california-official-admits-beach-visit-coronavirus
"“I want my top people who are responding to this crisis to be of sound mind, body and health,” Rabbitt added. “And if that means going to the coast to feel better, I’m all for it.”

That's the Putin Commie government perk system.

They can go home and "rest" like everyone else.

[scenes]

New story in Consumer Reports on household cleanser v. virus had a paragraph:

"And toilet paper and paper towels will continue to be scarce. “The paper companies are struggling to meet demand,” Flickinger says. “They’re supplying about 25 percent of what retailers are ordering.” Your best bet is to ask the store manager when the trucks make their deliveries and be there when they’re unloading."

How much damm TP did people buy for pity's sake? I figured that the end of the supply chain emptied in a pulse and then everything would calm down. Go figure.

From da BBC

Coronavirus: India's pandemic lockdown turns into a human tragedy
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-india-52086274

I wonder if these highly vaunted epidemic models take into account the tendency of people to get out of Dodge? That in itself sounds like an interesting bit of math being one of those crazy non-linear behaviors that bounces up against limits.

Things seem pretty quiet in Hunkertown.

[scenes]

Hang on, did I think to put up this link?

How resilient is the United States’ food system to pandemics?
Andrew G. Huff et alia

https://www.ecohealthalliance.org/wp-content/uploads/2016/02/How-resilient-is-the-US-food-system-to-pandemics-huff.pdf

[scenes]

Another one of those finds on the net.

https://twitter.com/WBYeats1865/status/1244821557253255169

[scenes]

I suppose that moi@8:59 could stand a caption.

"A Chinese woman proudly filmed herself buying huge amount of facemasks from multiple US supermarkets and loaded the masks onto her pickup truck.

"It feels so awesome to buy all the masks! I didn't leave a single mask for the Americans!""

[scenes]

geez, sorry about all the posts, but it's a post-rich environment tonite.

https://www.ibtimes.sg/chinese-students-us-shipped-3-4-million-personal-protective-equipment-wuhan-during-coronavirus-42120

[scenes]

lol. Dammit. and another.

https://twitter.com/tianshan2020/status/1233224319804813313?s=21

translation:

"Although exiled overseas and my husband imprisoned, I am still very concerned about the domestic epidemic. Knowing that Hubei is in short supply of medical supplies, I quickly purchased a batch of 620,000 pairs of medical gloves, 80,000 medical masks, 2,000 sets of protective clothing, and 1,500 thermometers in the United States at the end of January. The total value is 1 million yuan. Most of them have already been issued and the rest are still waiting for delivery after the suspension in February. I know it's very embarrassing to do this, the country has abandoned me, and I can't bear my country"

[Bill Tozer]

Dear Diary

Scenes upset me tonight with all the links about people putting China first.

[scenes]

BillT: "Dear Diary, Scenes upset me tonight with all the links about people putting China first."

vivo ut servem

[Bill Tozer]

vivo ut serviam ex machina is more like it. :)

[Bill Tozer]

Well thank God March is finally over. It only lasted longer than the Thirty Years War. And now April, T.S. Eliot’s “cruelest month,” which will likely seem longer than the Hundred Years War. Where is our Marlborough, who led the War of the Spanish Succession? A Marlborough is obviously what we need for the War of the Spanish Flu Succession. (Thanks, I’ll be here all month. Try the roast beef.)

https://www.powerlineblog.com/archives/2020/04/midweek-in-pictures-april-fools-day-edition.php

[George Rebane]

Gentlemen, it warms the cockles of me heart to see such an eruditional advance in our commenters' insights and opinions. German, Latin, Spanish, Italian, ...? all outpourings of our cultured readers whose long-sequestered intellects (so as to play to the common man) are finally being set free, oh my. ;-)

[Walt]

I sure would have loved to hear what Trump said when he got the news of THIS phone call.
https://www.foxnews.com/politics/biden-offers-to-call-trump-at-white-house-to-discuss-coronavirus-response-strategy
"Former Vice President Joe Biden is offering to call President Trump to discuss a strategy to combat the coronavirus pandemic."

Ya,, I know "Kellyanne Conway, counselor to the president, challenged him to “call the White House today and offer some support.”,, BUT,, that was like asking Dougy to vote for Trump.

[Walt]

OH WAIT!!! It gets BETTER!!!!
https://www.breitbart.com/health/2020/04/01/impeachment-manager-adam-schiff-wants-9-11-commission-on-coronavirus-what-went-wrong/

LIBS have a shorter memory than Emery!
They were so busy with their kangaroo court proceedings and trying to sell their manufactured evidence. The whole time Trump was doing what needed to be done.(evidence of that fact posted yesterday than put Mary Jane back under his rock)

[fish]

Posted by: Walt | 01 April 2020 at 10:44 AM

Biden offers to call Trump at White House to discuss coronavirus response strategy

If they're getting tired of keeping the GaffeMaster entertained in his hidden underground lair.....just put a full length mirror nearby.....Shotgun Joe will talk at it for hours....careful though.....at some point he'll get tired.... call himself a "Lying Dog Faced Pony Soldier" and then want to fight himself.

[fish]

Posted by: George Rebane | 01 April 2020 at 10:37 AM

When dealing with fools and cowards the ludicrous is necessary!

Frankly I'm surprised that you even bother commenting George.....the quality of leftys here has declined so precipitously!

[Bill Tozer]

@ 10:27 am

“Gentlemen, it warms the cockles of me heart to see such an eruditional advance in our commenters' insights and opinions. German, Latin, Spanish, Italian, ...? all outpourings of our cultured readers whose long-sequestered intellects (so as to play to the common man) are finally being set free, oh my. ;-)”

Blame Scenes and Fish. They started it. Strike that. Jig Wiggles started it with his pig latin.

[Bill Tozer]

10:53
Some "Lying Dog Faced Pony Soldier" has been diddling a Senate staffer.

Maybe it was that Touchy-Feely Joe that has been spreading the Chi-Com Virus. Good thing his wife put him in the basement.

In other news, Corn Pop has a fever, bad cough, and is out of TP.

[Walt]

Since foreign speek is the word of the day,
This is for "Mary".
Fós ag caoirigh caorach?

[Bill Tozer]

Why I’d been horn diddled!

Nancy is fiddling while Joe’s been diddling. At least he didn’t use a cigar.

[fish]

But, but, but.....Universal health Care?

GIVEN CUBA’S FAMOUSLY GREAT HEALTH CARE, WHY WOULD ANYONE WANT TO BE ANYWHERE ELSE DURING A PANDEMIC? COVID-19 strands Chilean leftist and Castro regime supporter in socialist Cuba, pleads for help to escape.

"Chilean actress and leftist Carolina Cox posted a video on social media recently pleading for help to escape socialist Cuba after getting stuck on the island due to the coronavirus pandemic. It seems Carolina Cox loves socialism and the Castro dictatorship as long as she doesn’t have to actually live under the same conditions Cubans do."

https://babalublog.com/2020/03/31/covid-19-strands-chilean-leftist-and-castro-regime-supporter-in-socialist-cuba-pleads-for-help-to-escape/

[fish]

But, but, but.....Universal health Care?

GIVEN CUBA’S FAMOUSLY GREAT HEALTH CARE, WHY WOULD ANYONE WANT TO BE ANYWHERE ELSE DURING A PANDEMIC? COVID-19 strands Chilean leftist and Castro regime supporter in socialist Cuba, pleads for help to escape.

"Chilean actress and leftist Carolina Cox posted a video on social media recently pleading for help to escape socialist Cuba after getting stuck on the island due to the coronavirus pandemic. It seems Carolina Cox loves socialism and the Castro dictatorship as long as she doesn’t have to actually live under the same conditions Cubans do."

https://babalublog.com/2020/03/31/covid-19-strands-chilean-leftist-and-castro-regime-supporter-in-socialist-cuba-pleads-for-help-to-escape/

[Bill Tozer]

The Great Hunkering Down thought: Are barber shops open or is it time to let the granddaughters cut grandpa’s hair? It turned out funny looking last time.

Let’s see how Buck is doing in his bachelor bunker

https://www.facebook.com/BuckSexton/?

[Don Bessee]

The chi coms are busted -

Communist officials in China have hidden the severity of the coronavirus outbreak within their borders, under-reporting both total cases and fatalities linked to the disease, the U.S. intelligence community reportedly confirmed in a classified report to the White House.

Wuhan, the capital of China’s Hubei province, is the birthplace of the novel coronavirus illness (COVID-19).

https://www.breitbart.com/politics/2020/04/01/u-s-intel-confirms-china-hid-severity-coronavirus-outbreak/

;-)

[scenes]

re: Barber shops.

There's plenty of 'bad haircut' pics online. Have the kids choose one and have at it. Seriously, a barber is the last person I would go to right now.

In Today's 'Your Life Sucks':

https://abcnews.go.com/Health/wireStory/coast-guard-cruise-ships-stay-sea-sick-onboard-69914072

"Honey! We'll save up for ten years and go on the vacation of a lifetime!"

[Bill Tozer]

Thanks Scenes.

BTW, has anybody here shaved since the Great Toilet Paper Stampede of 2020? “Not I” said the unwashed Biker Bill. Gotta save water in case the pump goes out. I have washed under my fingernails, so that’s a big improvement. And made two bottles of Biker Bill’s secret sauce finger licking good hand sanitizer. Put the hurts on the recipe. My paws are sooon clean now that I uncovered the cheat sheet answers from a test decades ago written on my palm.
——————-
@ 1:27 pm again.

Question: What comes after feeling zero gravity with a nice refreshing delicious ice tea in hand while at the water?

Answer: Your Life Sucks....Coast Guard: Cruise ships must stay at sea with sick onboard

[scenes]

"And made two bottles of Biker Bill’s secret sauce finger licking good hand sanitizer. "

Gasoline?

...and for your viewing displeasure.

https://archive.nothingburger.today/Videos/Infected_or_Dead/

[scenes]

lol. Now I've seen it all.

https://yubanet.com/california/162000-lgb-and-9000-transgender-elderly-people-in-california-at-high-risk-for-covid-19-illness/

Higher risk = age, gender, some medical conditions like hypertension, etc. Not LGBQLMNOP.

But Dammit Jim, I'm only a doctor!! We have to extra special care of transsexuals!!

Next up, '10% OF POPULATION SUBJECT TO WUHAN FLU DUE TO BEING LEFT-HANDED!!!', 'STORY AT ELEVEN'.

[scenes]

hah, here's one I hadn't thought of.

"New York Gov. Andrew Cuomo wants all of the state's county hospitals to open their doors to COVID-19 patients from downstate hot zones. That's not going over well with upstate counties already facing stretched resources.

“When I say I have 75,000 beds, that’s a statewide number. That means those beds have to be available to the people of New York City or Nassau [on Long Island.] Even if those beds are up in Albany,” Cuomo, a Democrat, said at his daily briefing on Tuesday."

https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/news/upstate-new-york-officials-leery-of-cuomo-plan-to-transfer-nyc-coronavirus-patients-around-state?_amp=true

Gonna be a lotta mad folks when this is over. It's funny how disasters tend to make people think locally.

[Don Bessee]

Now he did it, he broke with the party line -

https://www.breitbart.com/clips/2020/04/01/newsom-i-would-be-lying-to-say-trump-hasnt-been-responsive-to-our-needs/

;-)

[Bill Tozer]

Dear Diary

I fear some people won’t be able to take much more of the Great Hunkering of 2020. Some, however, are making the most of a bad situation.

https://www.facebook.com/marzmusic/videos/10157943117084156/
—————————————-

[fish]

Has anybody changed upon PuncyBot.....starting to worry about the boy!

[Don Bessee]

These are the assholes who are going to screw it up for everyone -

https://www.foxnews.com/lifestyle/coronavirus-instagram-influencer-positive-blasted-report

;-)

[Bill Tozer]

Dear Diary.

Got some yard work done. That is good. The bad news people, as predicted, are beginning to crack. Oh yeah, screw the French. Snail eaters and arrogant. Yuck.

CORONAVIRUS BRINGS OUT THE WORST IN FRANCE

The wartime appetite for la délation — reporting wrongdoers to the authorities — has reappeared. In country towns, people are denouncing neighbours to the gendarmerie for breaching le confinement and leaving their homes too often. …

“Tempers are fraying in supermarkets, with unsmiling shoppers in the Paris suburbs treating others with suspicion. Angry locals in coastal areas are seething over the 400,000 Parisians who are estimated to have fled the capital to spend the lockdown in their holiday homes. Some have been refused service and Parisian cars have been vandalised in Brittany and the southwest.....

Nurses are being threatened by people who see them as carriers of infection.

Lots of old prejudices are bubbling to the surface:

Conspiracy theories, long popular in France and a fixture of the yellow vest movement, blame the capitalist elite and also Jewish people for starting the epidemic or encouraging it. Many of the claims, shared millions of times on social media, talk of a “military virus” deliberately spread with the aim, variously, of boosting drug company profits, killing the elderly or delivering the country into the hands of multi-nationals or the secret “illuminati”.

One popular belief is that the virus was invented by the Paris Institut Pasteur.“

https://www.powerlineblog.com/archives/2020/04/coronavirus-brings-out-the-worst-in-france.php

Old Europe is so uncivilized. Hooligans and mischief markers.

[Don Bessee]

Just another reminder to the densest of the TDS party parrots about their chi com allies -

The US intelligence community has reportedly concluded that China intentionally misrepresented its coronavirus numbers

https://www.yahoo.com/news/us-intelligence-community-reportedly-concluded-173955673.html

;-)

[George Rebane]

DonB 703pm - Your report reminds me of our blindered 'Bertie', one of the succession of progressives who come here to reliably display their ignorance of what's really happening in the world outside these foothills.

[Bill Tozer]

Nobody has gotten everything right on this virus, and many of the most prominent voices have been wrong a lot, so it seems completely reasonable to adjust one’s position as new data comes in- The Trump administration clearly has shifted its risk tolerance. Now we all know why.
Twitter · 1 day ago. Buck

[Bill Tozer]

Well, well, well. April is full of surprises.

Gov. Gretchen Whitmer Asks Trump Administration for Chloroquine After Reversing Ban

https://trib.al/nRsvTG1

[scenes]

Just thinking out loud about a question I was considering.

Not a peer-reviewed paper, but tolerably rigorous I think.

https://digitalcommons.bryant.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=1019&context=honors_economics

"The unemployment rate, on the other hand, did yield the expected results,
showing a positive relationship with the suicide rate. The beta coefficient of 21.2 suggests that
with a 1% increase in the annual unemployment rate, approximately 21 additional suicides per
100,000 of the population can be expected. These findings were significant at the 5% level,
suggesting a strong relationship between suicide and economic factors."

Given (327M / 100k ) * 21 = 68670

and NYT sez "Coronavirus May Kill 100,000 to 240,000 in U.S. Despite Actions, Officials Say"

A 4% drop in employment rate is equal to the top number given there.

[Bill Tozer]

Dear Diary: A New York View from the Freedom Hut Bunker

The American spirit is alive and well. Say what you will about Blue Mob State NY, but those patriots holed up there are some tough folks. Right at Ground Zero of The Pandemic USA, the people spoke.

Buck Sexton
@BuckSexton
·
5h
My whole neighborhood in midtown Manhattan just erupted with shouts, cheers, claps, and all kinds of love sent from thousands of windows at once for our doctors, nurses, and first responders

God bless them and keep them safe
——————
How about a prediction, Buck.

“3 weeks into quarantine and pretty sure that the surge in ice cream sales will outpace the panic buying of toilet paper”

https://twitter.com/BuckSexton/status/1245530123555745792?
————-
One for the road

@BuckSexton
·
13h
Just putting this marker down now:

if we flatten the curve, save as many lives as possible, reopen America by summer AND avoid an economic collapse, it will feel like an actual miracle.

Maybe it will be a miracle.

But it does seem possible.
———
“Ozark just got weird.” Oh my. Goodnight Dear Diary

[scenes]

re: Gretchen Whitmer and that pesky chloroquine stuff.

Looking at the original article:
https://www.bridgemi.com/michigan-health-watch/facing-shortages-michigan-asks-feds-experimental-coronavirus-drugs

it's also filled with examples of a thing I was prattling on about earlier, institutional hoarding. Doctors, hospitals, counties, states, fire departments, there's absolutely no reason for everyone to not grab as much stuff as they can. You know darned well that Cuomo would have been happy to snag every ventilator in the US stockpile for New York.

[Bill Tozer]

Ok, now I get it. Explains the rush for toilet paper.

“Diarrhea first sign of coronavirus in some patients, study finds”

[Bill Tozer]

@ 9:59 pm

ARE PEOPLE CATCHING ON?

https://www.powerlineblog.com/archives/2020/04/are-people-catching-on.php

[scenes]

Just for some of that extra boring fun.

One of those highly tepid but necessary bureaucraticese documents. Anyone who has worked for a large organization will recognize this. Luckily, I'm only seeing the word 'leverage' used 5 times.

U . S. Government COVID - 19 Response Plan

https://int.nyt.com/data/documenthelper/6819-covid-19-response-plan/d367f758bec47cad361f/optimized/full.pdf#page=1

[Don Bessee]

So what's the highest charge, stealing the car the gun or the toilet paper? -

https://www.foxnews.com/us/california-stolen-suv-toilet-paper-coronavirus-police

;-)

[scenes]

For all your daily China Virus news.

https://www.covidbits.com/

[Well-hung Chad]

Local news
There are 30 confirmed cases of COVID-19 in Nevada County

10 in west county.

[Don Bessee]

Sorry TDS joy (what a misnomer) -

“As a consequence of that, our relationship began earlier than most. So from that perspective, all I can say is that, from my perspective, the relationship has been strong. I’m not doing it to kiss the ring. I’m not doing it in a way, you know, — I’m just being forthright with the president. He returns calls. He reaches out. He’s been proactive.

https://www.breitbart.com/clips/2020/04/03/ca-gov-newsom-praises-trump-as-proactive-when-joy-behar-asks-if-hes-kissing-the-ring/

;-)

[Bill Tozer]

Oh Don, there is more to live that Joy Behar. Like, there is Kathy Griffin in the hospital with big belly ache (passing stones?) in excruciating pain blaming Trump for her appendix attack. Man, did Trump ever break that one.

And, there are our old faithfuls blaming Trump and Pence. Journalism at its finest.

“ABC’s Pitts to Pence: Do You ‘Talk to God’ About Those Who Died Because You Acted Late?”

https://www.newsbusters.org/blogs/nb/curtis-houck/2020/04/02/abcs-pitts-pence-do-you-talk-god-about-those-who-died-because-you

Wonder if Pitts quoted Scripture to Pence. I love it when the God and Country haters start Bible thumping on our heads.

[Bill Tozer]

Re: modeling

CORONAVIRUS IN ONE STATE (3)

https://www.powerlineblog.com/archives/2020/04/coronavirus-in-one-state-3.php

[Bill Tozer]

Dear Diary.
Things have a way of balancing out.

https://www.facebook.com/groups/442017982919984/permalink/910720629383048/

[Don Bessee]

A little ray of light -

https://www.breitbart.com/politics/2020/04/03/actual-hospitalizations-for-coronavirus-significantly-lower-than-projections-in-model/

;-)