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30 March 2020


The Estonian Fox

An article in the Pittsburgh Tribune-Review covers a math prof at Carnegie-Mellon, Wesley Pegden, and his wife Maria Chikina, a bioscientist at the Univ of Pittsburgh. The two disagree with several epidemic models, calling them not realistic, since these models don't go into the future long enough. The short-term model results look good only by pushing out the uninfected Ps into the future, when these Ps will then become infected, and the epidemic continues.

“The idea that normal life can resume in two to three months without having a huge wave in infections — there is just no science behind that,” Pegden said in a Tribune-Review interview.

The two contend that "as long as a large majority of the population remains uninfected, lifting containment measures will lead to an epidemic almost as large as would happen without having mitigations in place at all. That’s because of an inevitable feature of realistic models of epidemics; once transmission rates return to normal, the epidemic will proceed largely as it would have without mitigations, unless a significant fraction of the population is immune (either because they have recovered from the infection or because an effective vaccine has been developed), or the infectious agent has been completely eliminated, without risk of reintroduction.

But mitigations themselves are not saving lives in these scenarios; instead, it is what we do with the time that gives us an opportunity to improve the outcome of the epidemic."

In the 6th paragraph of the paper referenced below is the link (“our work”) to the math part.

Article is at https://medium.com/@wpegden/a-call-to-honesty-in-pandemic-modeling-5c156686a64b.

Bill Tozer

Dear Diary

As of one day ago, WY has not had one COVID-19 death. My friend said they are not taking the virus seriously, as all places like churches and places to eat are open. Not taking it seriously? Well, people live there for the open spaces and have been practicing social distancing for over a hundred years.

Still have not made it to town to do emergency shopping. Have noticed at the Dollar General in PV that some people are wearing masks and gloves. And they are looking at one another suspiciously. There goes the neighborhood. In the sparse line and practicing anti-social distancing, talked to a woman behind who had a frozen pizza and a couple of cans in her basket, as did I...but with dog treats. We both agreed that eating out of the Dollar General is getting old fast. She made one trip to the Brunswick Safeway in town. Told me it was a zoo and has not gone back.

After all this time, I finally checked my TP inventory Monday for the first time. Never even bothered to check this year. Stash was empty in the cabinets. One roll under the spare bathroom sink, and a half roll in each of the bathrooms on the toilet paper holder. So, on Monday I did my first look for TP. Store clerk said the next shipment will arrive on Sunday. Best to get there early when the truck arrives. He made it sound like TP would be going fast. I will back it with tissue to spare.

I love you, Dear Diary.

Bill Tozer

When will things get back to ‘normal’? Never?

Small Businesses Are Almost Out Of Time, And It Matters To All Of Us


Bill Tozer

Dear Diary.
Finally went to buy TP. The dude last Monday said come Sunday, so I went this morning. Saw the big rig at the side of building. Raining hard. The toilet paper aisle was empty. “Dang it”, I reckoned moi arrived too early. Only 3 other people in store, all wearing masks. I felt naked, being maskless. As I was turning around to leave, I heard the cashier asked an elderly gentleman if he would like to buy TP or paper towels. She had the precious cargo behind the counter. Timing is everything. I went straight to the cashier and bought a 12 pack of ass wipe as soon as the customer left. In and out in two minutes. I knew it would be easy if I just bided my sweet time. 12 rolls should last me 9 months. Bring it on. Been out of paper towels for months, but, feeling rather extravagant , I bought a pack of paper towels, too. Dunno why, wash rags work great.

Since the Great Blackout of Fall, 2019, I am still using the old relic percolator for coffee. Tastes better and enjoy watching the glass top on the lid doing its thing. And I got hooked on wash clothes and old towels in lieu of paper towels. Makes me feel in touch with my inner child.

I love you, Dear Diary. PS: hoarding is based on fear. Living in fear is no way to go through life. What’s the big deal about grabbing the Charmin? Don’t touch the Charmin. . It was easy-peasey......much ado about nothin’.

We will all be wearing masks now.


re: BillT@11:56AM

I was thinking about you while I was watching the commercial Scott giant toilet rolls sell out on Amazon yesterday. I should have bought a case as gifts.

Now that even Joe Rogan has bent the knee...

I coulda repackaged them as MAGA rolls and gave them to the deserving.

Don Bessee

A tid bit for the TDS set -



Bill Tozer

Imagine, if you will, the Ultimate Troll Master invoking the Defense Production Act and forcing the NYT and Wa Compost to start making toilet paper instead. Oh my.

Don Bessee

Busted -

An editorial in The Detroit News slammed Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer, accusing her of playing politics during the coronavirus pandemic.

“Gov. Gretchen Whitmer must send an unequivocal message to her constituents that Michigan is her priority in this hour of crisis,” the editorial, which was published on Saturday, said. “Her running feud with President Donald Trump calls into question whether she's acting in the best interests of this state, or on behalf of the Democratic Party.”



Bill Tozer

Dear Diary

Things are getting weird. Last night around 2 AM I was walking the dogs in the pouring wind driven rain down the country lane in the sticks when two Chinese fellows jumped out of the bushes yelling, "This is MAGA Country!", and then coughed on me.

Bill Tozer

For what its worth....

Forecasting Model Predicts When Each State Will Likely Hit Coronavirus Peak, Gives Possible Total Deaths





from the editorial

"That creates confusion about whether Whitmer is advocating for her Michigan constituents, or carrying out her duties as co-chair of Joe Biden's presidential campaign, or worse, serving her own ambition to be vice president."

OK, I get it. Nothing to see here. State narrowly won by Trump with a fair number of electoral college votes, check. Female, check.

Huh. Greater than zero chance that she's the next President. That definitely makes my leg tingle in a bad way.


billt: "two Chinese fellows jumped out of the bushes yelling, "This is MAGA Country!", and then coughed on me."

You were safe as long as they weren't wearing split-crotch pants.


re: toilet paper


Don Bessee

Someone should check to see if a certain Nevada city tinfoil hat wearing politician was there. LOL -



Don Bessee

Forgetabout TP try getting a freezer if you didn't have one. -

Looking for a freezer to store your coronavirus stockpile? You're not alone in being frozen out



Bill Tozer

Dear diary


Don Bessee

There is going to be a reckoning -

Senate Homeland Security Committee member Rick Scott, R-Fla., told "Tucker Carlson Tonight" Monday Congress must investigate the World Health Organization over its handling of the coronavirus pandemic.

Scott accused the global health agency of doing "work for Communist China."


"At first they said in a tweet [Jan. 14] that there was no evidence that there was human to human transmission. Lie. Then they said on the 20th or something, 'China's doing a great job'. Lie," Scott said.

The U.S. taxpayers contributed $513 million to the WHO in 2017, up from $341 million the prior year, according to the Kaiser Family Foundation.

Scott noted that WHO Director General Dr. Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus, claimed President Trump's move to restrict travel from China at the end of January would create "fear and stigma with little health benefit."

"When Trump did the right thing by doing the travel ban they attacked Trump for doing the wrong thing," he said. "I asked them [the WHO] to do an investigation of China back in February ... [and] if they had done their job, everyone would have gotten more ready, we wouldn't have shut down this economy and we wouldn't have all these people dead all over the world."



Bill Tozer

Dear Diary

Saw a pic and thought of Dr. Rebane. Who else could go three weeks on a gallon of gas?


Did you know that in Wyoming, one does not need no stinkin’ permit to open carry. Saw this pic and thought of Scenes.


I knew it, I just knew it!


And just cuz:



"Saw a pic and thought of Dr. Rebane. Who else could go three weeks on a gallon of gas?"

I was wondering what happens when everybody's gas goes bad. But then, I'm not a glass is half empty kind of guy, I'm a 'somebody stole my glass' person.

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