“Testing, testing, testing” – Really? (updated 23mar20)

George Rebane

Those words from Speaker Pelosi summarized her three most important aspects of the pandemic legislation now going through Congress.  But once more I believe that the lady misses the point here.  Testing will do demonstrably little to stop or even slow down the inevitable and incipient explosion of Covid19 infections in the land.  The emphasis of governments at all levels now should be to facilitate manufacture and distribution of life’s necessaries and healthcare equipment/supplies to treat the daily growing cohort of the infected requiring medical treatment.

A couple of useful definitions for discussing the pandemic – ‘asymptomatic’ means “showing no evidence of disease”, and ‘pre-symptomatic’ means having been infected but not yet showing symptoms.

The pandemic will stop only after 1) all have been infected (meaning it never stopped), or 2) it dies out since no more infections and the lucky infected have survived and are no longer infectious.  The best and fastest way to achieve the latter without inevitably overstressing our healthcare system is to self-quarantine and STAY AT HOME.  The head fed expert on infectious diseases, Dr Anthony Fauci, reinforced this prescription again today when he advised everyone to maximize the time they can “stay at home” (here).

A lot of bullcrap about how the virus is transmitted still pollutes the media channels.  Dr Michael Osterholm, director of University of Minnesota’s Center for Infectious Disease Research and Policy, gives some extremely important and cogent advice about Covid19 transmission (here) the main takeaways from which are –

1. The virus survives for several days on surfaces, depending on the material and its environment.
2. The virus is readily transmitted via the aerosols (exhalations, sneezes, coughs, …) from infected people. And the scariest part is that in the air the virus can survive for a matter of hours.
3. Pre-symptomatic people can infect others. Just because you are asymptomatic does not guarantee that you are not pre-symptomatic.
4. Available masks do little to nothing to stop your breathing the viral aerosol.
5. No anti-Covid19 vaccine will be available in time to stop the coming national spike in infections.
6. The only way to stop the spread is maximum social distancing, i.e. self-quarantine yourself, stay at home.
7. Our medical infrastructure is woefully inadequate to cope with what is coming; the spike in infections will overwhelm it. We will wind up triaging like the Italians and others are doing now.

So getting back to testing, and how that affects each of us.  I’ve prepared a little flowchart that most people (most certainly the astute RR readers) can understand.  It shows clearly how your being tested for the virus is essentially immaterial as to what you should really do in any event.

In the meantime, our Democrats and lamestream media along with international news outlets like the leftwing Economist, continue to lambast President Trump.  They blame everything from starting the pandemic, through not having the country’s healthcare system prepared and waiting (no nation has achieved this even now), to securing America’s borders as evidence of his “mismanaging” this national emergency.  In the mean time all the EU countries are sealing their own borders and many have already shut down all walk-in businesses and imposed national quarantines.  Any idiot should know that one obvious way the infections will continue to increase is through infectious people uncontrollably crossing borders.  But apparently not.

And finally, I want to make the point that this pandemic may turn into a large-scale emergency for all of us (recall that’s an emergency when 911 calls are not answered).  But however it ends, we will have a national dialogue that will result in new policies calling for major changes in our preparedness for such future catastrophes which will surely pay us another visit.  A discussion of what these may be, I will reserve for a future commentary and comment stream.

[16mar20 update]  It’s worth continuing to pay attention to the Dems’ Big Lie programs.  Most noteworthy now is the continuing lie that we would have done a better job fighting the coronavirus had we already implemented a nationalized healthcare system like Bernie’s ‘Medicare for All’.  If anyone cares to look at how the countries with nationalized healthcare are doing in this pandemic, they would quickly be disabused of any such thing.

The other part of last night’s comedy debate was Bumblebrain’s ongoing claims that somehow he was in the crucial heart of policy making and implementation in the Obama administration.  Listening to him talk, ol’ Bumble was right in the middle of all that was happening.  If anyone cares to check the record, they quickly discover that the man was one watering short of a potted plant during the entire eight years.  VP Biden was trotted out to stand behind Obama during photo ops, dignitary dinners, and other ceremonial occasions, mostly to allay rumors of his early demise.  Oh yes, he was allowed to attend certain meetings as long as he kept his mouth shut.  So you know Bernie has to bite his tongue when, like last night, Bumblebrain claimed to be the “steady hand” that quashed the ebola epidemic and kept it from our shores.

Now, as with Trump’s bravado, I would not count as ‘lies’ these outlandish claims of accomplishment.  But it would be refreshing to hear a progressive see such a common thread that knits together all politicians.

And also, do you note that like socialists, they don’t want to call attention to China’s autocratic mismanagement of when the Wuhan virus epidemic started?  No mention is made of its genesis in China or Wuhan because such attributions would be “racist”.  The lamestream, of course, fell into line immediately.  For them and theirs, President Trump is a much more believable cause of all that’s bad about the Covid19 pandemic.

[17mar20 update]  Sierra Nevada Memorial Hospital sent out a notice to their foundation members (of which Jo Ann and I are) regarding their new drive-through testing program.  They also direct you to the county's coronavirus information website is here.

 Drive-through Covid-19 testing now at SNMH

Sierra Nevada Memorial Hospital will begin drive-through Covid-19 testing from 3:00-6:00 p.m. on Tuesday and Wednesday (3/17 & 3/18).

If you are symptomatic and meet criteria for testing, Nevada County residents should call their primary care doctor. If the doctor agrees that an individual needs to be tested, the doctor can fax an order to the hospital.

Sierra Nevada Memorial Hospital will call the patient to set up an appointment drive-through time. Please do not attempt to go to the testing drive-through without a previously set-up appointment. 

[18mar20 update]  New epidemic model revealed.  It turns out that the epidemic spread model that’s currently most trusted and used by policy makers in various countries is from the epidemic modeling group at Imperial College. (here, here, and here)  Note the (lack of) emphasis put on testing as a policy tool to affect infection and mortality rates.

Common malaria drug prevents and fights Covid19.  That is claimed in a report announced on Anthony Watts website (here) that was authored in league with Stanford University School of Medicine, National Academy of Sciences, among others, and published in several respected journals.  This, of course, would be the best news yet to salve the pandemic until a vaccine arrives.  In the meantime, Dr Rebane advises that you reconsider a gin and tonic as your afternoon preventative; after all, it is made with tonic water.  (H/T to reader)  The summary of the report follows –

Recent guidelines from South Korea and China report that chloroquine is an effective antiviral therapeutic treatment against Coronavirus Disease 2019.  Use of chloroquine (tablets) is showing favorable outcomes in humans infected with Coronavirus including faster time to recovery and shorter hospital stay.  US CDC research shows that chloroquine also has strong potential as a prophylactic (preventative) measure against coronavirus in the lab, while we wait for a vaccine to be developed.  Chloroquine is an inexpensive, globally available drug that has been in widespread human use since 1945 against malaria, autoimmune and various other conditions. 

[23mar20 update]  The reliability of Covid19 tests now reported should give most of us pause.  We are told that existing tests catch about 60% of people infected with the virus, and they test positive from 3% to 50% of those who are not infected.  So what’s the utility of giving a test to an asymptomatic walk-in American?  Well, the good Rev Bayes can help us out (more here).

[Trigger warning: some mild-mannered math ahead.]

We start with the prior probability that the asymptomatic walk-in has the virus which computes to about P(V) = 100K/330M = 0.0003 assuming generously that today about 100K Americans have been infected as opposed to today’s reported number of 42K.  The test’s likelihood ratio L(TP|V) = P(TP|V)/ P(TP|¬V) where V stands for virus present, ¬V means virus absent, and TP indicates Test Positive.  So the ratio is simply the two probabilities of a positive test given that the virus is present and the virus is absent – i.e. ¬V.  What we want to calculate is the updated or posterior probability that a person has the virus given that the test came back positive.  The Bayes formula for that is P(V|TP) = L(TP|V)P(V)/[L(TP|V)P(V) + 1 – P(V)].  Using the published numbers P(TP|V) = 0.60, and P(TP|¬V) = 0.25 (rough average of quoted range), we get L = 2.40.  Plugging this into the Bayes formula gives us

P(V|TP) = (2.4)*(0.0003)/[ (2.4)*(0.0003) + 1 – 0.0003] = 0.00072.

This tells us that an asymptomatic walk-in testing positive more than doubles his probability of having been infected, but his overall probability of actually being infected is still ridiculously low.  So what are you as a medical professional going to do with that information?  The answer is nothing much, because his probability of being uninfected, even with testing positive, is still P(¬V|TP) = 1 - P(V|TP) = 1 – 0.00072 = 0.9993, almost certainly virus free.

This little exercise allows us to evaluate the utility of such medical tests as to how much their results will move the needle one way or the other given what the test reports.  If the reported reliability numbers are accurate, then the test’s detection rate is way too low, and its false alarm rate is much too high for such a test to be very useful.  I’m sure that new tests are going to push the detection rates well above 0.9 and false alarm rates below 0.1.  Those interested can plug in different numbers and decide for themselves how reliable Covid19 testing should be before its results become a gold standard for use in making public response policies.  As a reference, here and here are a couple of websites that reports on the reliability of Covid19 tests so you can get a feel about how these tests are considered.

Comments

[Bill Tozer]

“Any idiot should know that one obvious way the infections will continue to increase is through infectious people uncontrollably crossing borders. But apparently not.”

And any idiot should know that one obvious way the infections will continue to increase is running out to jam packed Supermarkets to stand should to shoulder fighting with the mobs doing panic TP and canned goods buying. Then, stand in line for 20 minutes with the same mob before returning to one’s self-isolating.

[George Rebane]

Re BillT 1259pm - And then there's the hot flash - 'President Trump got tested and the result was negative.' OK, now what? When's his next test?

From my liberal east coast spy, an interesting WaPo article on the dynamics of the pandemic.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2020/03/10/coronavirus-what-matters-isnt-what-you-can-see-what-you-cant/

[Bill Tozer]

@ 1:16 pm
“And finally, I want to make the point that this pandemic may turn into a large-scale emergency for all of us (recall that’s an emergency when 911 calls are not answered)”

Yep, I am leaning more to this could become bigger. Testing wouldn’t stop it. All we can do is hope to flatten out the spike by July...with no vaccines at hand. We are in it now and it’s not about clear how this pans out without hindsight.

Is it just me or has anyone else noticed that instead of the young folks looking at us old geezers sideways, now it’s old geezers looking at younger thirty somethings with suspicious glances and those sideways looks. Carriers. Carriers of airborne pandemics. Airborne diseases.

[scenes]

re: BillT@1:38

Oh well, ya take yer zombie apocalypse where you can find it.

I'll go on a store research run tomorrow and report back. There's nothing much I need but it's a good time to top up before the main festivities start. For all I know, it's my last opportunity for fresh produce.

I see that Amazon is essentially out of canned food except for some entrepreneurs attempting to sell pinto beans for 5-6 bucks a can. Rice is gone except for the fancy schmancy wild kind (which is better anyhoo). If it's for sale, check the delivery date. I'd say it's likely those will get pushed out even more. One exception is corn meal, so if tamales or corn bread is on the menu (and why not?), that's still available.

I do have to wonder what the long term social changes will be, if any. A new interest in nationalism? Large scale failure of restaurants (not such a bad thing given the typical price:benefit ratio)? Home schooling? Businesses redoubling their efforts to automate? A lack of interest in mass transit?

[scenes]

BTW, did I mention this channel? Just in case.

https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCF9IOB2TExg3QIBupFtBDxg

[Bill Tozer]

@ 2:29 pm

Just got back from a local store/market. Not crowded at bit. The guy behind me was holding a bunch of feminine hygiene products and such. His wife called and told him what to pick up and bring home. He is from Oakland, heading back, and his wife told him to stop and pickup those items cause it’s a madhouse down there and don’t try to to shop for them there. She is a grocery clerk down there at Safeway or some store, lol. Poor guy, he should have grabbed a basket.

[Bill Tozer]

Darn. Forgot coffee. Heading back out into the Mist. Beware the humanoids, beware the mist.

Later...Priorities call

[Bill Tozer]

At 2:29 pm. “ Oh well, ya take yer zombie apocalypse where you can find it.”

Under the category ‘GREAT MINDS THINK ALIKE’

Buck Sexton
@BuckSexton
“The goods news is that, based on the always empty pasta shelves I’m seeing in grocery stores, my fellow New Yorkers will have at least 2 weeks supply of orecchiette, spaghettini and rigatoni when the zombie apocalypse comes”

https://twitter.com/BuckSexton/status/1239288609888522242?
——————————
More Buck Sexton
@BuckSexton·
3h
“Someone tell the credit card companies while we are in the midst of pandemic precautions, maybe they should stop making everyone touch the green “ok” button 3 times after swiping and then use that “pen” to scrawl a totally illegible signature-

Those things are like virus sticks“

[Scott O]

Here's a timely article.
https://www.takimag.com/article/crushing-the-coronavirus-curve/
I'm not sure we can do as well as the author suggests, but it's worth a try.

[Bill Tozer]

Testing, testing, test available now.

https://www.facebook.com/photo.php?fbid=3033678806666978&set=gm.896926744095770&type=3&theater

[Bill Tozer]

An Old Guy Looks at Coronavirus

“To constantly fear dying, however, is to deny the joy of life, to despoil all its pleasures. To give way to that fear of death is to live as a dead man. It’s wrong and it’s ridiculous. As William Shakespeare wrote in Henry IV, “By my troth, I care not. A man can die but once. We owe God a death… and let it go which way it will, he that dies this year is quit for the next.”

https://www.intellectualtakeout.org/article/old-guy-looks-coronavirus

[Bill Tozer]

Re:update

Italy announces it will not treat the elderly for this virus. That be socialized medicine. Like the old Bob Seaver song, “what to leave in and what to leave out.”
————-
Re: D big lies

https://www.facebook.com/dan.bongino/videos/3518647998176864/

[scenes]

Darn that Trump, now he's making the components had to get.

https://www.politico.com/news/2020/03/10/coronavirus-testing-lab-materials-shortage-125212

[Bill Tozer]

Guess I will put Daily Quotes here....for a change of pace

Insight: “No passion so effectually robs the mind of all its powers of acting and reasoning as fear.” —Edmund Burke (1729-1797)

No good options: “Yes these lockdowns could destroy our economic system. But the problem is that an uncontrolled spread of the disease could destroy our health care system. It’s not just about mortality rates. It’s about the hospitals and their capacities. What’s the right answer? I don’t know.” —The Daily Wire’s Matt Walsh

Never let a crisis go to waste: “We need to update our voting systems to keep up with the times. We need to modernize them. And it’s not radical. We can look at things like expanding vote by mail, for example, as a way to do that. And this crisis — voting from the comfort and safety of your own home would give a lot of people access to the vote that may be worried to come out and vote on Election Day [today].” —Florida Democratic Party Executive Director Juan Peñalosa

Double standards: “I did not for a moment think there was anything problematic [about hitting the gym] because I knew the dynamics. And again, I have to stay healthy so I can make the decisions for the people of this city.” —New York City Mayor Bill de Blasio

The BIG Lie: “We are, you know, weeks and weeks behind because the president said it was a hoax and we were in denial, so, of course, we’re going to be behind on these things.” —Rep. Tim Ryan

Nope: “So the idea was, how can you organize a militia quickly to defend your area or defend the country? And we said that, in order to maintain a well-run militia, that people could have a weapon, a musket.” —Joe Biden

And last… “These same voices who regard President Trump as being ‘literally Hitler,’ are upset because … he's not acting like a fascist dictator? How does that make sense?” —Peter Heck

[scenes]

My, here is a cheery update.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dr0Cqlf5xK4

[Bill Tozer]

Not bad explainations of the curves...video

https://www.facebook.com/203805062990264/posts/3495715080465896/

[Bill Tozer]

“[As one reader echoed the warning to Julius - 'Beware the Ides of March!' Lot is happening in these trying times. I have posted 'Testing, testing, testing, ...' for the continuing discussion of the Covid-19 pandemic. Please deposit your topical good thoughts there. gjr]”

Now, imagine being snowed in, no power, social distancing, the stock market gone south, and one just hit the biggest pay dirt of their lives and what to with do or put all those millions? Oh, the dilemma of suddenly becoming a 1%er. Where to go, what to do? When money is no problem, when saving for retirement is suddenly over, when all is said and done, you are still stuck inside, in the dark and going out in the elements to bring more firewood in. Good time to play Gin Rummy, I reckon.

Thus is the dilemma of a friend now faces. Think waiting for power to come back on it their top priority, along with shoveling out. The great equalizer. Still put their trousers on one leg at a time.
Weird times, bro, weird times.

[Bill Tozer]

While I would love to arise above politics (am getting bored of the blather) and put all that aside and come together and focus on solutions, I still have a deep inclination to put America First. Silly notion, I know. Call me a clinger.

‘In the Pandemic, It’s Every Nation for Itself’

“Closing borders is a grievous offense against liberalism that is supposedly rooted in the sin of xenophobia. But what governments in Europe are saying by closing their borders, what Americans are saying by banning travel from Europe, is that while all men may be created equal, we will always put our own people first, ahead of the rest.

When a crisis comes, be it a war in which the survival of the nation is at stake or an epidemic where the health and survival of our people is at stake, we take care of our own first.

This is human nature. This is the way the world works.”

https://buchanan.org/blog/in-the-pandemic-its-every-nation-for-itself-138327

[scenes]

re: Captain Trips

You do have to wonder if this shouldn't put paid to the concept of dense urban living, mass transit, large group activities. Maybe everyone should live like the folks in rural Idaho.

Not to mention mass movement of people of course. Which makes me wonder what'll happen in those invader camps on the Turkey/Greek border. Probably not so much given that it's nearly all young males, regardless of the very occasional ragged elderly person that gets grabbed up for the ever-truthful news camera.

[scenes]

BillT: "we take care of our own first."

One problem is that if half of your population simply doesn't think that (or has some subgroup that they have primary fealty to) it's pretty hard to hold together a country, especially if things get somewhat frisky.

In the Blue Mob, there is no 'us', just a loose confederation each with their own kinks plus a bit of handwaving about 'humanity'. They're surprisingly successful given the lack of founding documents. As a counter, the European Communists worked hard to produce a genuine philosophy during their conquest.

[The Estonian Fox]

Re use of anti-malarial drugs for prevention/treatment of the China virus:

Hydroxychloroquine is an antimalarial drug which is a relatively safe and well-tolerated agent for the treatment of rheumatoid arthritis. Chloroquine is another antimalarial agent that is also sometimes used. Since there are over one million Americans who have rheumatoid arthritis, it seems that we already have a substantial cohort in the U.S. who already are using a proposed anti-coronavirus medication. What percentage of infected people are currently taking chloroquine? Is this percentage the same, higher, or lower than those who are not taking chloroquine?

[D]

The U.S. and South Korea both confirmed their first cases of coronavirus on January 20.

As of yesterday, South Korea had tested 274,000 people. The U.S. had only tested 25,000.

Trump's failure to provide widespread COVID-19 testing is costing American lives. https://t.co/3XhY3OvUsJ

[D]

The best way for the government to help would be to find every person that is sick, quarantine them and spend the money on supporting them while they're in quarantine so they don't go out into the public and contaminate more people.

[scenes]

re: "D"@6:24AM

Here's a reading assignment. It's even from an approved source of news.

https://www.newyorker.com/news/news-desk/what-went-wrong-with-coronavirus-testing-in-the-us

"The best way for the government to help would be to find every person that is sick, quarantine them and spend the money on supporting them while they're in quarantine so they don't go out into the public and contaminate more people."

Great IDEA!!! It would work even better if they were all tested simultaneously, plus you have to test everyone since it's possible to be contagious and show no symptoms. Keep workin' on your plan!!!

[fish]

I would love to see the "Elephant Walk" of public interest lawyers inundating the Sacramento County courts to sue the state to protect the rights of Ernie, Cletus, and Shaquanda to continue their street shitting antics.....over, and over and over again!

There was a reason the the the Urban Camping set was specifically excluded from "Shelter in Place" edicts!

[D]

Scenes, I am talking about quarantining every person that is sick with a cold. Just quarantine all of them. No testing necessary.
Put the money where it can do the most good.

[scenes]

"Scenes, I am talking about quarantining every person that is sick with a cold."

People are infectious before they show symptoms. There are also people who don't show symptoms at all.

https://www.cnn.com/2020/03/14/health/coronavirus-asymptomatic-spread/index.html

The main hope with all the efforts taken is to bend the rate of increase to less than 1 person infected per sick person. You need a full spectrum of measures and, as usual, it's a ponderous thing.

Did you read the New Yorker article?

[D]

Ski resorts are vector central.
Colorado’s mountain resort communities are facing “extensive spread” of COVID-19, and local leaders on Sunday urged residents and visitors to minimize social contact and stay put as officials take steps including first steps toward a community quarantine.

“We’re seeing extensive outbreaks in these communities,” said Rachel Herlihy, a Colorado Department of Public Health and Environment epidemiologist, addressing conditions in Eagle, Gunnison, Pitkin and Summit counties.

[Bill Tozer]

From Ruminations

“All the Dems grousing about Trump’s “failure to handle the pandemic” are simply full of horseshit (aka bull pucky). No one dares to compare America’s response with the actual numbers of what the other Left-celebrated countries have done. Grab any metric that you have available. And the biggest farce is the so-implied massive testing that other countries have done. The challenge is to discover what marginal benefit to prophylactic or prescriptive policies has their testing provided that shows America is somehow behind the response curve. Nothing – but ‘testing’ is the only thing that the Dems have, with no better (or any) plans of their own, to try to get some traction against the Trump administration”. —Dr. Rebane.

Accurate testing should come first. That has to be solved. Let’s not put the cart before the Donkey.

Enjoy the cabin fever. Maybe someone should keep at diary; Quarantine Day 6, Quarantine Day 11, and the one I am waiting for, Quarantine: 28 Days Later.

[scenes]

"Ski resorts are vector central."

I don't doubt that, although there is some work done in that area.

https://www.cnn.com/travel/article/north-america-ski-resort-closures-coronavirus/index.html

also:

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/coronavirus-florida-beaches-ignore-social-distancing/

Luckily there aren't any older people in Florida.

A prediction. To some extent we are reaping the increasing lack of community. Identity politics, which works super well in an era of Diversity! and modern communications also buys you a variant of the 1960's split between old and young.

A lot of younger people simply don't like boomers (they stole our jobs! they stole our paid for houses!) and there's a certain joie de mort in passing around a virus that tends to be age specific in results.

You'll see articles written on this.

[Walt]

D- is for concentrations camps.
Thanks. Stick good, healthy people, in close quarters with the sick. Good plan.
Oh... Wait.. The Gov. tried that already with rounding up every Japanese person in WWII.. "ONE may be a spy"..
I'm sure D- took issue with that.

[Walt]

Morn'n Bill... UPDATE: kids are back from down under.

[Bill Tozer]

Mornin Walt.

That’s good news....or is it? Stay away from them. Maybe it just a plot to kill ya. Safety first, :)

They may have tested negative, but that was yesterday!!

[Walt]

Thanks Bill. They are sue glad to be home.

Now,, for the "Hell just froze over" report
https://www.breitbart.com/politics/2020/03/19/ilhan-omar-lauds-trumps-incredible-response-to-coronavirus-unprecedented-leadership/

This will piss of D- ....

[George Rebane]

Under 'Ruminations - 17mar20' I posted - "The challenge is to discover what marginal benefit to prophylactic or prescriptive policies has (other countries') testing provided that shows America is somehow behind the response curve. Nothing – but ‘testing’ is the only thing that the Dems have, with no better (or any) plans of their own, to try to get some traction against the Trump administration."

Is there no testing proponent out there to pick this gauntlet?

[fish]

Posted by: scenes | 19 March 2020 at 09:52 AM

A lot of younger people simply don't like boomers (they stole our jobs! they stole our paid for houses!) and there's a certain joie de mort in passing around a virus that tends to be age specific in results.

You'll see articles written on this.

To the degree that you can believe the media (sorry....it sounded stupid as I typed that!) the cohort infected and needing enhanced care is beginning to skew downwards! For the first couple weeks it was the elderly, immune compromised, and people with lifestyle issues (smoking, obesity...) who seemed to be faring the worst. It seems though now that a broader 20 - 50 yr old group is no longer escaping unscathed!

https://www.statnews.com/2020/03/18/u-s-official-says-data-show-severe-coronavirus-infections-among-millennials-not-just-older-americans/

https://fortune.com/2020/03/18/coronavirus-young-people-getting-sick-covid-19-us-italy-france/

[Scott O]

D(uh) 8:25 - "The best way for the government to help would be to find every person that is sick,..."
Yeah, they'll get to that after they finish finding all the people that are bad.
Then we'll work on finding all the ones with hurtful ideas.
Good grief.

[fishhurt@hurtfish.com]

Posted by: Scott O | 19 March 2020 at 12:23 PM

Then we'll work on finding all the ones with hurtful ideas.

They've been working on this since the beginning of the O'Dummy Administration!

[Walt]

Big business trying to do their part.
https://www.foxnews.com/travel/carnival-cruise-ships-temporary-hospitals-coronavirus
"The world’s largest cruise line suggested its ships could be used mainly to treat non-coronavirus patients, in order to free up beds in land-based hospitals for COVID-19 patients. The company said it could provide up to 1,000 hospital rooms and would be able to quickly provide the necessary medical equipment, including intensive care units."

I;m sure D- will find something to gripe about with that.

[George Rebane]

Walt 1244pm - now there's a great capitalist idea. Get some revenue while doing God's work in taking care of the non-contagious sick.

[Bill Tozer]

@ 12:54 pm
But what about luxury liners’ circular air system.....like on a big ole jet liner. Imagine if one contagious stowaway got in with the contagious sick?......Mercy.

[Bill Tozer]

Opps for the umpteenth time.

Imagine if one contagious stowaway got in with the NON-contagious sick?

[scenes]

Just one of those things I run into on the net.

https://www.instagram.com/tv/B9zcj7Aoa-n/?igshid=1eymk1572ct0h

I've decided that Italian web forums are the best place for news. I'd rather just turn on my BS detector reading what regular people have to say vs. MSM + gubmint.

[fish]

Posted by: scenes | 19 March 2020 at 01:36 PM

Keep people comfortable and hope they can be made stable enough to get better on their own! Not fun at all!

[scenes]

re: anti-malarial drugs.

https://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2020/03/huge-breaking-news-president-trump-announces-chloroquine-will-be-made-available-immediately-has-shown-very-very-encouraging-early-results-video/

[scenes]

re: chloroquine

https://docs.google.com/document/d/e/2PACX-1vTi-g18ftNZUMRAj2SwRPodtscFio7bJ7GdNgbJAGbdfF67WuRJB3ZsidgpidB2eocFHAVjIL-7deJ7/pub

and other drugs.

https://www.elsevier.com/__data/assets/pdf_file/0007/988648/COVID-19-Drug-Therapy_Mar-2020.pdf

[Robert Cross]

IN the 'how stupid can a republican get' category -- Rep. Don Young (R-AK) said the virus was being hyped up by the media, "They call it the coronavirus. I call it the beer virus. How do you like that?" Young, 86 added "It attacks us senior citizens. I'm one of you. I still say we have to, as a nation and state, go forth with everyday activities."

Good advice if you only have a couple of years left to live anyway and you're dumber than a box of rocks.

[Weird Bobbie Yankandbitch]

Remember you Rebaneamancs, we are watching you and we will never forget. Never. We are always watching you.

[fish]

Posted by: Robert Cross | 19 March 2020 at 04:11 PM

Holy Crap....that's Roberta Cross level stupid.....that's Denny Wilson level stupid!

Good catch Bertie!

[scenes]

re: Mr. Yank and Mrs. Cross

Thanks for your input.

In other news:

https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/coronavirus-top-medic-warns-anyone-21708701

"Coronavirus: Top medic warns anyone who gets the flu jab should stay at home
People who get the winter flu jab are firmly advised to shield themselves from the coronavirus by isolating for 12 weeks, the deputy chief medical officer for England warns"

[Walt]

See? Trump does what needs to be done, and Lefty news calls him racist.
https://dailycaller.com/2020/03/19/donald-trump-nbc-news-racist-coronavirus-travel-ban-china/
What was I tell'n ya "D-? and it continues.

[Bill Tozer]

In home test may be available Monday. Get Doc to write prescription for The Plague Virus Test and they will mail you test with easy instructions (swab) and mail it back. Return envelop included, 128 bucks....says US tele-med company. Details and link later, got to go out into the great back 40. The Great unknown.

[fish]

Posted by: Weird Bobbie Yankandbitch | 19 March 2020 at 04:34 PM

Remember you Rebaneamancs, we are watching you and we will never forget. Never. We are always watching you.

....yawn.

Don't you have a website to finish?

[scenes]

likely to be local

https://www.thecut.com/2020/03/when-it-comes-to-coronavirus-dont-worry-is-selfish.html

[Walt]

Just who is "we" SFB?

[scenes]

re: Walt@7:24

Oh well, 'they' have to get out of their house first.

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/19/california-governor-issues-statewide-order-to-stay-at-home-effective-thursday-evening.html

[Bill Tozer]

Ok, how about the forbidden question of what is an acceptable death rate from the flu as opposed to wrecking our economy and send us into the Great Depression II? At some point the quarantines will have to stop, people will have to go back to work, and our lives (however changed) must continue on.
—————
This link does not address the question directly, but lays the groundwork.

‘Will The Costs Of A Great Depression Outweigh The Risks Of Coronavirus?’

Federal and state governments are making a massive gamble about a little-understood new virus. They are betting our future on the most extreme worst-case scenario without considering the costs.

‘A Depression Will Ruin 330 Million Lives, Not 4 Million’

“Why would the entire nation grind to a halt when the entire nation is not at a severe risk? I would rather have a flu I am 99.8 percent likely to survive than the nation plunged into chaos indefinitely because we pulled the plug on our economy during a stampede.

At the very least, Congress should wait a week or two, while half the nation or more is home, to see how the infection rates look as millions of test kits go out. The worst-case scenario they are predicating their actions on may not be the one we’re facing. Prudence suggests a measured, wait and see approach to policy until we have better information, not chucking trillions of my kids’ dollars out the window “just in case.”

https://thefederalist.com/2020/03/19/will-the-costs-of-a-great-depression-outweigh-the-risks-of-coronavirus/
———————————-
Better link
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RBEmLhO4KO4

[Bill Tozer]

Brother Walt, per usual, nails it again @ 4:49 PM.

“See? Trump does what needs to be done, and Lefty news calls him racist”

Neither Biden Nor Sanders Would Have Saved American Lives With Travel Bans Like Trump Did
There is no way a President Biden or Sanders would have gone against the academic models’ conclusion to leave open travel from China — but Trump did, and saved countless lives in doing so.

Oh, they will always call Trump and Trump supporters (even Trump leaners) racist. They don’t need no stinkin’ rhyme or reason. That, Walt, I can assure you is baked into the Lib cake.

In the fullness of time, we will be back to 20 million will die in the streets if we touch Obamacare, aka, the Unaffordable Care and Patient Privacy Act.

[Don Bessee]

The view from across the pond after they battered the administration for closing borders like the socialist dems and the trollish set -

The president of the European Commission admitted that leaders in the EU “underestimated” the scale of the coronavirus outbreak, as the bloc has closed its external borders to foreign travellers.

The admission by Ms von der Leyen that the EU “underestimated” the severity of the virus comes just one week after the bloc criticised President Donald Trump for imposing a travel ban on the Schengen Zone nations.

Mr Trump argued that the European Union had failed to take the necessary “precautions and restrict travel from China and other hotspots” in the face of the growing coronavirus pandemic.

https://www.breitbart.com/europe/2020/03/18/eu-president-admits-europe-underestimated-coronavirus/

;-)

[scenes]

...and...so much for testing.

L.A. County gives up on containing coronavirus, tells doctors to skip testing of some patients

https://www.latimes.com/california/story/2020-03-20/coronavirus-county-doctors-containment-testing

[George Rebane]

scenes 932am - Important catch Mr scenes. Almost no one understands the function and/or the utility of testing for coronavirus. But such understanding is beginning to penetrate as we gain experience in responding to the disease. Testing is only useful if it is applied on a regular schedule to a suspect population concurrently (small time window) and comprehensively through scientific sampling, and the results are made known in a timely manner in order to quickly discover unknown 'pockets' of infection that can be isolated/treated sooner than later. Otherwise the results from ad hoc and spotty test applications provide no marginal utility than do normal medical decisions responding to symptoms.

[Gregory]

The testing demanded by the Punchies of the country is designed to throw fat on the political fire, not for theraputic purposes or public health understandings.

We demand to see how bad it is NOW!

SARS (the original pandemic more than a decade ago) ended up all but dying out by itself... whether or not SARS-2 (SARS-CoV-2) gets worse or better is yet to be seen.

[scenes]

"The testing demanded by the Punchies of the country is designed to throw fat on the political fire, not for theraputic purposes or public health understandings."

Emerianism is nothing if not pure.

I have to say that I'm surprised that we are seeing drive-in tests in the hospital parking lot when the first order of business should be regular and constant testing on nurses, grocery store checkers, front line postal employees. Maybe there's something going on behind the magic curtain, but I doubt it.

The weaponization of plague in the 2020 election reminds me (or at least reminds me of what I've read) of the virulent anti-FDR activism in some corners of the Republican Party that still existed even after it was obvious there was going to be fightin'. It does no one any good and in fact is harmful to any national effort. Even if you don't trust the man in front, everybody should pull on the same rope.

I even got to hear a bit of the craziness myself today from one of our local Blue Folks. Just a replay from some oft retold story from a political website and as usual based on 75% BS. I'm eager to hear anything about Captain Trips that I don't already know, but you're not going to get it from 4th hand Daily Kos.

[scenes]

Prediction of the day.

You'll see testing ebb off in areas that are hit by the virus due to lack of protective equipment. When you're running low on (or out of) masks, you'll save them for dealing with sick people in your facility.

Bummer that no one kept sufficient stocks, a hospital is a hard dollar and you save money where you can. Combine that with the understandable Chinese need to strip other countries of their N95's and then keep internally made ones for themselves. The hivemind is not your friend after all.

It is what it is, but it's an interesting detail in this whole mess.