Hunker Down Diary – 23apr20 (updated)

George Rebane

We are now in HD47 and watching how the national lockdown has slowly turned from a health safety policy to yet another political match between the Left and the Trump administration.  These days we do a lot of reading about C19, recognizing new data on the extent of existing herd immunity, greatly lowered death rates, and contagion numbers a bit higher than the annual flu, in addition to the curves already being flattened.  And therefore, by our lights it’s long-past time to end the lockdown; at least start a rapid phased loosening of commerce that’s based on regional factors.

It is clear which side wants maximum misery and economic disruption/destruction in these months leading up to the election.  The party with no policy but continuing criticism of those fighting the pandemic is working wonders to rend the country during this global pandemic.

In the meantime, we note that Placerville has already appealed to Gov Newsom about pulling back on his ‘one size fits all’ statewide C19 proscriptions so favored by socialists.  Placerville correctly argues that it is a low-density rural town which does not compare with LA and the other metro areas of the state.  Meanwhile, our own county and city governments continue to meekly toe the lockdown line, making not a discernible peep to Sacramento as to the growing insanity and hardship of practicing the statewide policy in these foothills.  The correct way forward here is to let the shops and public spaces open, and then deal with any jackboot responses from state bureaucrats – always better to ask for forgiveness than permission.  What the hell can they do to us anyway as other states and regions of similar descriptions are already going on with their lives?

In the ‘don’t let a crisis go to waste’ department, we note that California has now issued a new set of guidelines to start statewide death panels in healthcare facilities like clinics and hospitals.  People will be scored based on age and health to determine their priority/access to healthcare.  The whole process is sold on the basis of “life-cycle considerations” to allocate treatment resources.  The idea being that older folks have already had enough enjoyment out of life, and since the younger ones haven’t, scores based on age should be used in allocating limited care.  There is no provision in these guidelines for other factors like the social contributions that many older people continue to provide their communities. (more here)

I think such an allocation policy has been done informally on a case-by-case basis for years, and I see nothing wrong with that practice.  But bureaucratized formalization is a giant step toward bringing the state into the middle of intimate doctor-patient relationships, and a notch away from new requirements for healthcare professionals having to request permission before providing this or that type of care, and then reporting what was provided and its aftermath.  As most of us know, once this kind of command/control starts, it is almost impossible to walk back.  And within the greater embrace of encroaching socialism, in America it has already started.

In the 23apr20 WSJ Dan Henninger writes a compelling column – ‘How We’ll Live With Coronavirus’ - wherein he argues that human nature will trump egregious lockdown policies, and people will learn to live with C19 as just another disease that needs to be recognized and dealt with in the daily round, much as we did with all the other dreaded diseases before we eventually conquered them.  Extended cowering has never been a prominent part of how people behave – save perhaps under the tender mercies of a KGB or Stasi.

[update] Newsom’s 6-point plan to lift lockdown was released about a week ago - I forgot to mention it above.  On the face of it, his plan ranges somewhere between cynical and insane.  For openers, most of its provisions are either unattainable or will only come to pass in the far future.  You can review them here.  His message to the state’s idiots is a warning that the dependers on relaxing the shutdown would hang on “science, not politics”.  Now that is one the largest cartloads of bullcrap any politician has delivered in a long time.  Of course his decision will depend on politics – the current delay in opening up already confirms it.  The many considerations that will go into his actual decision will be munged over only in the political arena, and science will enter in only for CYA purposes to camouflage some more partisan and self-serving factor that cannot be revealed to the public.

The whole thing reeks of the usual subterfuge used to cover the socialists’ perpetual campaign to remove citizens’ rights and freedoms.  I’m reminded of the ongoing 2A battle that cites ‘gun violence’ as its raison d’etre.  There the Left has been diligent in constructively abrogating our 2A rights.  How?  By not being able to directly confiscate our firearms, they instead continue to pass collateral laws and regulations which make their purchase, possession, storage, transport, use, and purchase of related equipments (e.g. ammo for openers) between difficult to illegal.  This approach works wonderfully with those in the land grouped under the ‘myth of the rational voter’ (cf. Bryan Caplan).

Comments

[Bill Tozer]

Good commentary, Dr. Rebane.

Preemptive strike to Nervous Nellies: We are talking only about Phase One of a four part Get Back to Work plan. Like opening health clubs-fitness centers in one state. I haven’t been inside a weight room in decades, but I feel confident that the owners of such establishments can disinfect equipment regularly, provide anti-social distancing, and protect staff just fine. Now I heard about hair salons opening up. Guess rich or poor, cutting ones own hair and trying to be all cleaned up and looking good is not in the cards. That’s why they make ballcaps. Sure beauty parlors can adjust practices to open their shuttered doors. All dressed up and nowhere to go, lol.

The fastest (months?), most efficient, and by far the best way. to get those 22 million unemployed whole again is NOT to send out checks but to get their jobs and life back.

Sure, mistakes will be made. Like a football game, sometimes the playbook is tossed out after the first four snaps from center. If a young old geezer like myself has to stay in isolation longer, so be it. I can take care of myself, thank you very much.

The country itself cannot sustain a long police state shut-down. I reject the premise of our Leftys’ Mantra that we can either kill grandma or selfishly worry about money. We can protect grandma just fine and also open up the economy. The way things stand today, will are going to kill patient and the patient is a place known as the USA.

So far, the only thing flattened is our healthcare delivery system.

Side note: you can bet your bottom dollar that if there a new outbreak in Kentucky, Georgia, South Florida, or Oklahoma and people die (which will happen anywhere), Mary Wannabee will be over in the Sandbox dancing with glee on the bodies of the departed to take a political shot at Trump and feel 6 inches taller. We can handle that. :). What we cannot handle is the risk of 25 million people who will lose everything...savings wiped out, bankruptcies, small businesses never coming back, and the loss of ‘Our Town’.

[scenes]

" yet another political match between the Left and the Trump administration."

It all gets so tiring. Obviously something as ponderous as federal or state government blunders around, is slow to respond, and honestly it's hard to tell what the right move was (or is).

Instead we get treated for some time to an artificial war that never existed between Fauci and Trump (let's you and him fight), Trump is gonna kill everyone in New York, Trump is a meanie to the Chinese, etc. ad nauseam. This really isn't a pandemic, it's just more Orange Hitler nonsense. I wonder if those people will look back in 20 years and wonder why they overreacted so much. Dream on brotha, they NEVER GONNA FORGET!! lol. What a bunch of jackasses.

re: death panels. I don't actually hate the idea, it's already done in a semi-organized fashion in a world of limited resources. The problem is the underlying logic. Basically, you have to organize who lives and dies when *everybody gets the same level of healthcare*, in other words you can't buy your way out of the problem. To me, it's the crazy aunt in the closet of leftist health policy, that everyone is equal. Ideally, a rich person can't buy a better class of insurance or purchase healthcare outright. The highest good is that everyone has 5 cents rather than some have 10 cents and some have a dollar.

[Bill Tozer]

‘The Deadly Costs of Extended Shutdown Orders’

The focus on saving “just one life” from the coronavirus to the exclusion of all other considerations likely will prove a catastrophic failure of policymaking. The devastation to individuals’ ability to flourish or even survive may soon become irreversible.

By Heather Mac Donald • April 22, 2020

https://amgreatness.com/2020/04/22/the-deadly-costs-of-extended-shutdown-orders/

[scenes]

georger: "the middle of intimate doctor-patient relationships"

I think that's a concept that's largely gone. Admittedly, there was a time when there was something like a relationship, along with things like housecalls.

(Talking GPs) The average doctor now has 1500-2000 patients. A normal office visit consists of being weighed and measured (easy to accumulate and largely useless numbers), someone who is continuously late due to stacking patients, flying in, looking at your records on the spot, types more than listens, authorizes a test or pill based on industry-standardized flowcharts. Some appear (or are) more concerned than others, but what passed for a relationship some time ago is long gone.

It's an area that dearly longs to be broken up by some form of AI and the use of an aide to provide the thing people are actually superior at at this point, meat manipulators.

[Gregory]

Just wondering what folk's basic thoughts are for the pandemic panic.

At the cost of oversimplification,

Think of two numbers... the count of the dead due to the SARS-CoV-2 virus with the lockdown taken to its screw the economy, if it saves one life limit (call it A) and the count of the dead with the lockdown stopped fairly quickly (call it B). For the moment, assume there is no particular treatment (ignore the HCQ/AZ/Zn and other trials possibilities) and that any ICU visit will be symptomatic whack-a-mole with standard pharma and mechanical support as needed.

So, is it:
A=B (about the same)
or
A < B (by a little)
or
A << B (by a lot!)

My lay expectation is that it is A less than B, by just a little, as long as the hospitals can keep up in the B scenario, which was the whole point of "flattening the curve".

My expectation is the Crabbmen and Fishies of the world think it would be A << B. Old people dropping like flies.

[scenes]

"My expectation is the Crabbmen and Fishies of the world think it would be A << B"

I expect that that's the case. Heck, it might even be true if the quarantine were tight enough and long enough, the virus would do it's thing and then disappear. Stick everyone in a cell for six months and we'd lose most infectious diseases that require human carriers.

To some extent it's a giant experiment in game theory. One way to go is to let everyone else walk around, get sick, get cured or die, then you can come out of hiding. That might well be optimal thinking for the scenesbunker, as long as everyone else plays along.

One big advantage of 'flattening the curve', besides not overloading hospitals, is that clinical practice will improve the longer you wait to get sick...obviously it's not a static thing.

[fish]

Posted by: Gregory | 23 April 2020 at 01:54 PM

My expectation is the Crabbmen and Fishies of the world think it would be A << B. Old people dropping like flies.

I don't remember weighing in on this....?

[Gregory]

sorry, that's capital F Frischies, not a lower case singular fish.

[fish(ie)]

Ah....got it! No worries!

[L]

Good comments,all. Went out in Tucson today (Pima Co. population 1 million, 1000 cases, 70 deceased therefrom) and traffic seemed about 50+ % of normal; Lowe's very busy (people have to do something and gardening seems momentarily popular), Safeway seemed just about normal. Only about half with masks, mostly the older folk, as young 'uns still think they're immortal. AZ is obviously much more laid back on the issue than CA, Thank God. Our gov announced the resumption of optional surgeries on 1 May. Alas, my friendly neighborhood barber is tightly shuttered and I could imagine his business (four jobs) closing, but I hope not.

George's concerns over Gov Noisome's re-opening criteria are well founded.

1. Ability to monitor and protect through testing.. still not sure what testing will do except provide a picture of the past. Bunch of mush, easily abused by authority.

2. Prevent infection in the vulnerable- see Tozer above, I likewise am able to take care of myself, COPD and heart failure notwithstanding. Got no problem being alone with my wife and few others for as long as needed. This was all that was needed in the first place, so check.

3. Not to swamp the medical system. This is history, the system proved more than up to the task, even is fever swamp New York. So check, again. Even Sweden's system seems to have done about as well as any without formal lockdown.

4. Therapies on demand is another weasel requirement. Irrespective of the HCQ and other promising 'cures', its possible that no cure will ever be found; likewise vaccination which, if it does appear, is very likely beyond the time horizon of the US ability to survive this lockdown. Forget this one- herd immunity is ultimately the only way to go.

5. Physical distancing in business, schools and child care is long-term, physically impossible. Try getting a tattoo or a haircut without human contact! On the other hand, kids don't really have much to worry about with the virus to begin with, so have some 'chicken-pox parties', get them all exposed and immune and move on. This is one the politicians are likely to use to keep things closed down as long as possible (until Nov. 3, after which Dems will sound the all clear).

6. Ability [to reinstate the lockdown}. And this is a problem how? Check. (I'll decide for myself if I want to obey or not, at my own risk.)

In truth, there's not an item there which would warrant the continuation of house arrest even an additional day, much less a week or month. So get moving, California, you dodged a bullet and should take advantage of your great good luck.
.

[Gregory]

then there's the money spent or opportunity cost...

How much money would I knowingly spend on getting over the Wuhan SARS

all the money in my checking account and maxing out credit cards?
the above and my cars and airplane?
It's only money, and if you knew the age of my cars and airplane, this would seem less heroic.

I think this is where my enthusiasm for extended life would begin to wane...

the above and my 401k?
ummmm...

the above and my wife's separate accounts?
no

the above and my kid's checking?
hell no!

the above and my kid's savings?
f' off, no!!!

the above and any future of my grandkids?
any last words, asswad?

[rl crabb]

Love it when people assume to magically know what I think. Actually, I posted my opinion on Facebook stating that it would be a good time to do those projects you've been putting off for the last 40 years or so, and that Gov. Whitmer's ban on selling paint and garden seeds was massive overkill. A few of my more progressive friends went totally ballistic that I would advocate going to a hardware store. I'm always failing these tests of my loyalty to one side or the other.

[George Rebane]

rl 617pm - Thank you Bob for bringing that post over here; it warms the cockles of me heart. Now if I can only acquaint you more intimately with the notion of relative frequency as applied to the leanings from your oeuvre, then maybe we can both hoist a flagon to celebrate your commendable failing of such tests.

[Gregory]

crabbman

The question you dodged had nothing to do with the politically incorrect suggestion of yours that Gov. Whitless position on selling seeds was massive overkill. It was:
" My expectation is the Crabbmen and Fishies of the world think it would be A << B. Old people dropping like flies."

It's an easy one to answer, Earl... yes or no?

[Bill Tozer]

My my. Dr Rebane’s lovely bride was ahead of the curb:

Buck Sexton
@BuckSexton
Sunlight and fresh air kill the virus off faster than darkness and indoor environments

The scientists have confirmed what all of us already knew

Maybe open the parks and public spaces up, politicians
———————————————
Buck Sexton
@BuckSexton
New York’s Gov. #Cuomo Suggests that Alternative to Stay-at-Home Order is Death

https://twitter.com/BuckSexton/status/1253488533043634181

So, this is what numbskull liberal Governors have come up with?? Stay behind closed doors or death. Isn’t there a third option besides Obey or Die? Whatever happened to ‘Give me liberty or give me death’? The rugged individual? Sure, the ‘don’t tread on me flag’ is now deemed racist or the symbol of domestic terrorism or something berry berry bad, Almost as bad as Live Free or Die.

[Don Bessee]

That's a good thing! -

The 500-bed US Navy hospital ship Comfort is leaving NYC after treating just 179 patients in 3 weeks

https://www.yahoo.com/news/500-bed-us-navy-hospital-095738047.html

;-)

[Bill Tozer]

Daily Quotes go here this fine evening.

Insight: “The danger is not that a particular class is unfit to govern. Every class is unfit to govern.” —Lord Acton (1834-1902)

Food for thought: “Citing polls to support shutdowns is absurd. Asking 100 [people] if they support it, 70 who still have jobs, while 30 are desperately trying to feed their kids & save their homes, is a recipe for civil disorder.” —Dan Bongino

For the record: “We are already sheltered in place and the environmentalists would tell us we still aren’t doing enough to save the world.” —Erick Erickson

Exhibit A: “We’d have to keep doing this even [locking down] more and do it for the next 30 years to really begin to bend the curve on the greenhouse gases in the atmosphere.” —Project Drawdown Executive Director Dr. Jonathan Foley

Village idiot: “I didn’t really think about where is the electricity [for electric cars] coming from. I assumed solar panels would last for ever [sic]. I didn’t know what went into the making of them.” —Michael Moore (“That’s awesome. Moore has been going around for decades promoting politicians and policies that would basically wreck the economy. He wanted a coronavirus-level economic tsunami before we’d ever heard of Wuhan and its bats. But he had no idea what he was talking about.” —Bryan Preston)

Revisionist history: “In stark contrast, Vice President Biden and the intelligence community repeatedly warned Trump not to buy the Chinese government’s spin and to take steps to prepare America to combat the coronavirus. Trump disregarded those warnings, and now the U.S. leads the world in both confirmed coronavirus cases and deaths.” —Joe Biden campaign

Braying jackass: “You want to go to work? Go take a job as an essential worker.” —New York Gov. Andrew Cuomo

Non compos mentis: “As far as I’m concerned, what’s happening with this administration, it’s akin to war crimes.” —Rep. Ayanna Pressley

Braying jenny: “When the president tweets about liberation — does he mean go back to work? When we have this discussion about going back or reopening, I think a lot people should just say, ‘No, we’re not going back to that. We’re not going back to working 70-hour weeks just so that we could put food on the table and not even feel any sort of semblance of security in our lives.’” —Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez

And last… “26M Americans unemployed. 4.4M more this week. That’s a 16% unemployment rate. 1 in 6 workers without a job. If that doesn’t make you sick to your stomach… then you must be a politician still collecting your paycheck.” —Liz Wheeler

And, of course, a Rand Paul quote:

https://www.facebook.com/PatriotPost/photos/a.82108390913/10157293853300914/?type=3&theater

[Bill Tozer]

The Lefty haters’ buzzword for the past couple of days is “Death!” Death this, death that, everything is death, people are going to die, blood on Killer Trump’s hands, death, death, death and destruction. Death everywhere you look.

Hmmmm. Death and misery has always been the end results of their hare brained policies and agenda. No self awareness. Nothing new under the Sun.

What’s your misery index? We are all in this together. Righttttt.

[Bill Tozer]

One numbers guy sez:

‘There is no empirical evidence for these lockdowns’

https://www.spiked-online.com/2020/04/22/there-is-no-empirical-evidence-for-these-lockdowns/
———————
Why we should trust the American people to open up shop. My apologies in advance. I can’t find where I read the graph/study. :( LA Times, Cornell, UNC?????

The graph is simple.. Showed various states on one side of chart under the heading Before Mandatory Social Distancing, the line going down the middle of the chart as the start date of gov’t ordered social distancing (shut down) and on the right one can see % of people practicing social distancing since the shut down(s).

The graph line starts at the bottom early January, then keeps rising up and up through Feb and then to the March and mandatory social distancing (shut down). At the shut-down, the graph flattens out and continues level and steady as she goes into April.

My point is that 5 weeks before the shutdown folks were already practicing social distancing . Since the shut downs came, there has been no increase in % of people practicing social distancing than after the shut downs to present. Maybe a husband or wife had been watching the news in early March and when the mate comes home and said, “Let’s go out to eat tonight, sugar plum” and the better half (thinking about crowded places and concerned with the news, answers back, “No, why don’t we just stay in tonight.”

Thus, we can trust those people who were intuitively and cautiously exercising best practices before the shut-down to continue exercising the same judgement as things start opening up.

Not all of are dumb (ignorant) enough to take the Tide Pod Challenge...

[Walt]

Dear Diary.. The scam calls keep coming. I didn't know PG&E outsourced their call center to India. 300 bucks in Amazon gift cards will keep my smart meter from being removed? Wonders never end...
Remined me to remind Emery and Marty,, it's all legit.

[Gregory]

Regarding ammo restrictions... Judge Benitez hit another one out of the park late this past week, with an injunction against the State of California's law on the books mandating background checks for ammunition sales, the forbidding of bringing ammo purchased out of state into the state, and having ammunition shipped to your home or business.

On 2nd Amendment and Commerce clause grounds.

[George Rebane]

Re the latest ragging of Trump for his musings on using disinfectants on C19. Here's a piece that widens the perspective on that a bit.
https://www.americanthinker.com/blog/2020/04/trumps_idea_for_disinfecting_people_to_fight_disease_is_already_being_done.html

[Bill Tozer]

Dear Diary

Looks like Trump was right.

‘Looks Like Trump Was Right About The Coronavirus Fatality Rate’

Two new studies suggest that President Trump was right in early March when he guessed the fatality rate for coronavirus is under 1 percent.

https://thefederalist.com/2020/04/23/looks-like-trump-was-right-about-the-coronavirus-fatality-rate/

[Bill Tozer]

Dear Diary

This staying home is better than I thought. Irrst, the Trump income tax return was much appreciated. Then the Corona Virus Relief check was direct deposited into my bank without me even being aware of the funds for a few days. Next, a guy I have not seen since 2018 stopped by and paid me the 200 bucks he owed me. After that, a younger former Marine (there are no ex-Marines) called from out of state that he wants to Western Union me money hr borrowed last June when he was passing through and flat broke, again 200 bucks. Told him don’t Western Union me cause I ain’t going to go to Safeway Brunswick (and haven’t since the Plague hit), so I gave him my address and told him to buy a friggin money order for a buck and mail it to me. Cheaper than Western Union. Young people want to do everything at the push of a button. Anyway, he said he is including nice bonus for helping a brother out.

Not to be outdone, another 30 something dude who I haven’t seen once since last year stopped by yesterday morning and paid me for a piece of equipment I sold him last year (fronted until he got on his feet) and he shows up at the door with 700 clams. I took 350 told him to keep the rest cause I had already wrote it off in my head. Besides, I was going to give the equipment away anyway. Oh boy, he was grateful cause that $700 he had to pay me with really was all he had to live on. Win-win situation.

So, I just have to stay locked down and money comes to me. Guess no one wants to have Biker Bill come looking for them. Strangle, whoever started rumors about the Mafia and me murdering a bunch of folks...well, thank you kindly. Having a false reputation precede me has its silver lining.

Finally, at my age and poor health I finally became a Trust Fund Baby. Go figure. And yes, I still go shopping in my PJs and tee shirts with hole in them. I call it my holy shirt. An man does what a man is going to do, no matter is current position in life.

[Bill Tozer]

As one is hunkering here, there are folks (libs mostly) who are hunkering down in the cities thinking about coming here..and beyond. There goes the neighborhood.

Moving Out and Not Coming Back

https://www.nationalreview.com/the-morning-jolt/moving-out-and-not-coming-back/?

[Bill Tozer]

OBSERVATIONS ON THE GREAT HUNKERING (12)

CNBC has a terrific illustration of the insanity of the regular-unemployment-plus-$600-a-week the CARES Act saddled the country with until July 31:

“Jamie Black-Lewis felt like she won the lottery after getting two forgivable loans through the Paycheck Protection Program. When Black-Lewis convened a virtual employee meeting to explain her good fortune, she expected jubilation and relief that paychecks would resume in full even though the staff — primarily hourly employees — couldn’t work.

“She got a different reaction. ‘It was a firestorm of hatred about the situation,’ Black-Lewis said.

“The anger came from employees who’d determined they’d make more money by collecting unemployment benefits than their normal paychecks.”
——-
“Some time in the last decade or more, America crossed an interesting threshold, in which Americans spent more money eating out in restaurants than buying food for home consumption. I doubt we get back to that for a long time. I expect there may be an initial flurry to eat out after eight weeks of packaged food at home, but I think we’re going to see eating out reset at a lower level for the long term—or shift to different modes.

My other prediction is that with so much rice and pasta and other packaged foods being consumed at home right now, by next fall a lot of ventilators are going to be repurposed as liposuction machines.“

https://www.powerlineblog.com/archives/2020/04/observations-on-the-great-hunkering-12.php