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07 April 2020


Bill Tozer

Might be on topic, might not.

The models that our Administration is currently using has overstated the C-19 deaths and hospitalization by a factor of four....three in NY . Related deaths and hospitalization are the two metrics that matter most in the here and now, not testing, IMHO. Comprehensive tests of millions of folks must include testing for antibodies for those testing negative, positive, and those exposed to the contagious virus but show no effects or have tested positive as a carrier but seem fine.

Suppose that testing shows 50%, 90% of the population has been exposed to C-19 or 50%-% test positive? Then what? More testing? Taking self-distancing more seriously? Nah, the real issue is hospitalization and deaths.

These models currently being used are not from six months ago or a month ago. They are from a two weeks ago, a week ago, now days ago. They are constantly being revised as new data comes it. The situation is fluid. Good news that this week the modeling has been revised downward. Who knows what next week’s modeling will say?

Andrew McCarthy: ‘Dramatic Reduction in COVID-19 Disaster Projections’



The Nevada county Covid 19 information page is basically worthless considering that doctors won't test you unless you state you have had contact with others. A woman in Nevada City just posted on Facebook that her husband who has been staying home since March 15th has come down with fever, headaches etc. She is the only one who leaves the house to go shopping once a week wearing mask and gloves and disinfecting when she gets home.
Distant relatives in Truckee were sick with bad flu-like symptoms early on and they believe they were infected with Corona virus but they aren't testing there either so who knows.
With all the social distancing and self quarantining I'm surprised anyone would get sick for any reason, seasonal flu or otherwise.
Additional relatives and their friends in Southern California were saying they came down with bad flu symptoms early on and were prescribed inhalers.
But there are still a lot of people walking around here who aren't masked up.

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