Ruminations – 3may20 (updated 5may20)

George Rebane

You can indeed have your own opinions AND your own facts – America proves it daily.

Know the denominator!!  The innumerates of the land are constantly bombarded with naked numerators about this stat and that stat.  And none of them make a peep that they know about what they are being told.  That the US has suffered more than 60K C19 deaths means nothing unless you know either the total number of infections or America’s population.  Naked numerators are NOT news unless you know what the denominator is and how that compares with others in the same class (e.g. international C19 death rates) in which the numerator belongs.  Dumbth rules.

Dr Fauci is quoted saying, “Opening too soon COULD cause a (C19) rebound.”  Well, no shit Red Ryder.  Reported by everyone from FN on down, this is a tautology of cosmic proportions; a real nothing-burger seen as ‘news’ only by the nation’s light thinkers.  Fauci had to say that because it's also his job to disperse palliative pabulum, true statements masquerading as epiphanies of expert opinion.  But it’s up to us Americans out here in television land to understand that we learned nothing new.  And woe be to them (and really to us all) if enough of our fellow citizens really thought they were enlightened by something actionable.

Asymptomatic C19 carriers are not contagious, shows a new German study, thereby debunking the Chinese claim to the contrary, and making moot more of the claims by the nation’s CCP-celebrating lockdown loonies.  (more here)  H/T to correspondent since the lamestream has a tendency to suppress such news.

Censorship rising.  The Left, supported by corporatist America, now determines which facts and opinions may be publicly expressed in the various media.  Even FN can no longer claim to “fair, balanced, and unafraid.”

‘I vas just following orders.’  Does anyone else notice how many of our police are becoming automatons, mindlessly carrying out their lockdown orders, no matter how insane?  This behavior is a harbinger of the police state the progressives intend to implement sooner than later when they tip the balance of power.  And as has happened in so many other countries, historically and especially during the last century, the government people with the guns will always act to first and foremost protect their own jobs and families’ security at the expense of yours.  The Left has a full pipeline of laws and regulations awaiting implementation to control every aspect of our lives and livelihoods.  But there are still LE voices in the wilderness that recognize and oppose the national insanity; here is one from the Sacramento Deputy Sheriffs Association. (H/T to reader)

Nevada County – ‘still a day late and a dollar short’.  As of 2may20, NC with 100K residents has a total of 41 C19 cases that include one death, two still active, and 38 recovered.  Our hospital is empty of C19 patients, and western county has had no new cases since 17 April.  Also, as of 2may20 Yuba and Sutter counties with a combined 175K residents have 50 recorded cases that include 36 recoveries and 3 deaths with the remaining 11 being active.  Yuba and Sutter have opened up their businesses with the advisory that commercial enterprises “use all appropriate health measures” in the public square.  As a remote rural county that doesn’t understand the nature of the current coronavirus epidemic and how it compares to a regular flu season which has never impacted the conduct of commerce, NC remains closed, fearful, and continues to shutter and threaten its businesses.  Talk about rank ignorance and political CYA.

[4may20 update]  Prof Alan Blinder, the very liberal Princeton economist, was interviewed in the 4may20 WSJ, a newspaper in which he regularly appears.  Asked about the Fed’s response to the C19 pandemic, he gave it high marks for immediately providing lavish liquidity to commerce (part of its monetary policy), but reminded us that the Fed cannot create jobs because that is the role of government’s fiscal policy (taxes, tariffs, fees, regs).  Of interest to me was that he never deigned to elaborate on the fiscal policy required to create jobs, avoiding this important detail for good reason.  To the leftist economists proper fiscal policy here means government creating winners and losers in the commercial sector by selectively issuing taxes, tariffs, fees, and regs.  That has never worked, and it’s always been the opposite of the government getting out of the way that has given rise to rapid economic growth (witness the most recent snail’s pace of growth stifled by Obama.)  But the Blinders of the world cannot make their case to a knowledgeable audience without inviting more public blowback on their cherished collectivist economics.  So the good professor left it to the reader to interpret which kind of fiscal policy would be needed today to rescue our economy.

Seventy-one years ago the refugee Rebanes from Europe arrived in the Port of New York aboard the troopship USS General Harry Taylor packed with a regiment-load of WW2 survivors.  We had spent the last ten days on the storm-tossed North Atlantic housed in huge sleeping bays like sardines in canvas sleeping bunks stacked 5 and 6 high. (more here)  And finally, on the morning of 4 May 1949 we landed in the world’s greatest country that promised all of us lucky ones life, liberty, and the ability to pursue happiness as each of us saw fit and were capable, … and did we ever!

[5may20 update]  Aerosols, droplets, speaking, singing, ..., and Covid-19.  Here is a very illuminating summary of how the virus can be transmitted and the effectiveness of masks.

Comments

[Bill Tozer]

re: Know the denominator!

We have gone from a two week shut down to ‘restrictions cannot be lifted until there is a vaccine.’

We are just going to have to live with the SARS 2.0 19. When one tosses in the denominator, the death risk is low. What, 0.5% for most people.

What we should be focusing on is the obesity crisis our nation has suffered through for several years. National Security issue. Army can’t find enough fit young men and women. They are too fat. Major health crisis. High risk for death by virus. The pre-existing conditions of a compromised immune system are directly tied to diabetes....which is directly tied to gross obesity.
600,000 people die a year from obesity related diseases, including heart disease.

Use the denominator. Bring back Richard Simmons’ Fat Asylums. Have the Great American Meltdown every month, not just once a year. For Pete’s sake, open the fitness clubs and pass a Amendment making ownership of a stationary bike and treadmill a human right!!

I sure hope using the denominator does not lead to censorship. Opps, too late. Thank you, Donald Jr. for stepping in. When is too soon too soon? When is enough enough?

#FREECANDACE

Donald Trump Jr.
✔
@DonaldJTrumpJr
Heard from my friend @RealCandaceO that she got banned from @Twitter for simply telling the people of #Michigan they should go to work.

If the Social Media Masters ban you for that w/o an explanation, imagine what they’ll do to try to influence the election given their politics!
8:47 AM - May 2, 2020

https://www.powerlineblog.com/archives/2020/05/freecandace.php

[scenes]

Given how politicized CCP-19 reporting is, anything to get Orange Hitler out of office after all, plus the huge money that is floating around for healthcare and economic stimulus, plus states fighting for a finite amount of funding, I'm not sure that you can trust the numerator.

[The Estonian Fox]

George, to quote from the German article that you referenced (Asymptomatic carriers not contagious, Feb 3, 2020):

The fact that the paper got it wrong doesn’t mean transmission from asymptomatic people doesn’t occur. Fauci, for one, still believes it does. "This evening I telephoned one of my colleagues in China who is a highly respected infectious diseases scientist and health official," he says. "He said that he is convinced that there is asymptomatic infection and that some asymptomatic people are transmitting infection."

I know, I know, the actual (i.e. real science) data will be in Friday’s mail. Meantime, belief systems are on hold, since they are not meeting in Churches on Sundays anymore.

And in the 3 months since that Feb. report, I don’t remember Fauci ever saying “My belief system was wrong.”

[George Rebane]

EestiR 320pm - Thanks for that clarification/amplification. Please continue to keep RR readers up to date with what you gather from your perch. Many thanks.

[Bill Tozer]

re: Limp dick "NC remains closed, fearful, and continues to shutter and threaten its businesses. Talk about rank ignorance and political CYA."

Its not just our ignorant county politicizing and going into full CYA mode peddling the boogie man under our collective beds. Gavin is doing it too!

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2020/05/02/gov_newsom_puts_politics_over_data_in_california_shutdown_143100.html

[Bill Tozer]

Can’t bring myself to put this link under Scattershots after Squidward stunk it up like a rotting beached whale. So, here it goes in fresh water.

USELESS MODEL

https://www.powerlineblog.com/archives/2020/05/a-useless-model.php

[The Estonian Fox]

George,

A local psychologist has the saying "It's not about calming the waters, but learning to sail in stormy seas."

He must have read your bio about spending 10 days on the storm-tossed North Atlantic, and how well that worked out for you and your family. Imagine, actual events beating out the metaphor.

Now the government wants to pursue happiness for everyone. With the free money our politicians are giving away, I suspect that there will be far fewer open-ocean sailors, but many more occupants riding in the 1000-passenger ships, ships so extensive that they are “immune” to stormy seas. Just look how well that ended for the Titanic and the Andrea Doria.

[Gregory]

"Asymptomatic [SARS] carriers are not contagious, shows a new German study, thereby debunking the Chinese claim to the contrary, and making moot more of the claims by the nation’s CCP-celebrating lockdown loonies. (more here) H/T to correspondent since the lamestream has a tendency to suppress such news."

No George, the new information does not extablish asymptomatic SARS2 carriers are not or cannot be contagious; it does establish the one person identified as an asymptomatic carrier did indeed have symptoms.

The original study was in too much of a rush to track the person down and ask them. They had returned to China but did answer the phone when called. They had fatigue, muscle aches and were taking Tylenol.

All of the "asymptomatic patients can spread the disease, everyone must be tested, everyone must wear masks" was from that one study... but it's anyone's guess as to whether or not another 'asymptomatic spreader' candidate will be found.

In other news, according to the State, there are no SARS patients hospitalized in Nevada County.

[George Rebane]

Gregory 252pm - 'Our hospital is empty of C19 patients, and western county has had no new cases since 17 April.'

Given the hundreds of thousands of asymptomatic C19s and the dearth of any symptomatic C19s being traced back to asymptomatic ones, the probability that an asymptomatic C19 contributes to R0 is somewhere between zero and nil.

[Bill Tozer]

The situation is fluid.

Whopping 373 workers at meatpacking plant test positive for COVID-19 — and they were all asymptomatic

https://www.theblaze.com/news/whopping-373-workers-at-meat-packing-plant-test-positive-for-covid-19-and-they-were-all-asymptomatic?

[Gregory]

'Our hospital is empty of [SARS] patients, and western county has had no new cases since 17 April.'

Where are the hundreds of thousands of asymptomatic persons with active SARS? Are they truly asymptomatic or are they just toughing it out? We don't know... and my point stands... the new info does not establish there cannot be transmission from a person who does not show any symptoms.

For example, I'd not suggest anyone lick a spoon used by a person who may be infected with SARS. But go ahead if you feel strongly about it.

[Gregory]

toes 323pm

I'd be wary of folk working in a meat packing plant with lousy sick leave policies, quick to let folks go if they call in sick...

People who can't afford to be sick generally manage not to be "sick".

[George Rebane]

Gregory 328pm - if they're asymptomatic, then by definition they have C19, otherwise they would be asymptomatic of what?? I'm not sure of how you have defined 'inactive SARS', and the 'hundreds of thousands of asymptomatic persons' worldwide, starting in Wuhan, is pretty much an accepted notion in the ways C19 expresses itself, especially among the younger people. And as far as my inferential statement of the C19 asymptomatics' ability to transmit the disease when no one has evidence of it, that also stands until someone finally shows us a black swan.