Scattershots – 26may20

George Rebane

What is the death rate of those infected with SARS-Cov-2 (here C19)?  Well, the more we try to find out, the more it gets curiouser and curiouser.  The latest attempt to explain the whole matter to us is put forth by Reason magazine in their ‘Do the Divergent Results of COVID-19 Antibody Studies Reflect Real Differences?’  Their quest for the answer was launched with the premise “The infection fatality rate (IFR) probably varies from one place to another.”  Well, no sh!+ Red Ryder, you’d think?  Then after a head-spinning discussion, about all the reader can walk away with is that IFR varies anywhere from 0.0005 to 0.013.  And IFR is strongly correlated with old age, especially those with preexisting comorbidities.  But then a little later, someone concludes that, no matter your age, it’s actually mainly your preexisting comorbidity that determines your probability of dying, and old age is just a prominent proxy for that since almost all old people have one kind of preexisting malady or other.  But what brought a smile to my face was their attempt to buttress the piece by injecting numbers.  All kinds of talk about test 'specifities' and disease 'prevalence', and the resulting 'positive predictive values' were bandied about which the reader is supposedly able to follow with their numbers.  But it turns out that none of it could be followed because nowhere do they bring up, let alone cite, the related test sensitivities without which their discussion is a meaningless jumble.  The point they try and fail to make is that which I presented in ‘Image of ignorance and/or incompetence’ along with its preceding tutorials on testing.  The bottom line here is that to understand how C19 relates to the mostly insane current response policies is almost impossible.  Since everything, like IFR, depends on so many different factors, to get even a glimmer, one has to have more than a smidgen of numeracy under their belt.  And if you’re going to publish something about it, you’d better be at least numerate.  Today none of that is a prerequisite before spouting volumes about the pandemic.

This PAN-DEM-IC looks like a DEM-PANIC when we consider how the Dems are doing everything they can to blame the whole shebang on President Trump – everything from the economy to the number of deaths attributed to the corona virus.  A reader sent an article from American Thinker (here) that details the whole thing, including why cooking the books on the body count has become a cynical political football.  November is coming and the Democrats are desperate to making something stick on Trump before they have to let Bumblebrain out of the basement.  No matter who the DNC picks for Biden’s VP, I bet they will demand that the presidential debate(s) will be presented in a tag-team format so that Bumblebrain will have someone with him on stage who can talk – otherwise it will be a bloodbath.

Comments

[Don Bessee]

There are truly 2 Americas -

Democrats are far more likely to live in counties where the virus has ravaged the community, while Republicans are more likely to live in counties that have been relatively unscathed by the illness, though they are paying an economic price. Counties won by President Donald Trump in 2016 have reported just 27% of the virus infections and 21% of the deaths — even though 45% of Americans live in these communities, a New York Times analysis has found.

https://www.yahoo.com/news/coronavirus-deadliest-where-democrats-live-121518089.html

;-)

[Don Bessee]

MSNBC gets busted again -

Perry then prompted his camera man by touching his elbow to show a man in a Green Bay Packers shirt without a mask on. “But you can see nobody is wearing [masks],” Perry then said as he pointed to the man.

“Including the cameraman,” the man shot back.

https://www.breitbart.com/politics/2020/05/26/watch-wi-man-busts-msnbc-for-mask-shaming-while-cameraman-is-maskless/

;-)

[Bill Tozer]

Don @ 6:13 pm

You better fact check that article you posted. I have another source. :)

MSNBC Analyst Warns: Second Wave of Virus Is Coming, But Just for ‘Red America’ ‘Trump Voters’

https://www.newsbusters.org/blogs/nb/kristine-marsh/2020/05/25/msnbc-analyst-warns-second-wave-virus-coming-just-red-america

[Walt]

The games LIBS play.
"New York Gov. Andrew Cuomo, who signed legislation granting hospital and nursing home executives immunity from lawsuits related to the novel coronavirus last month, previously received a big-money boost from a powerful health care industry group, according to a new report."
https://www.foxnews.com/politics/cuomo-immunity-nursing-home-campaign-donation

[Bill Tozer]

After reading a headline on a Leftist site, I decided to check it out myself. The headline read something like, ‘COVID-19 Deaths in Blue Districts Fall, Remain Steady in Red Districts’. Hmmm. That would lead the reader to conclude that Red Districts are not doing a good job, Blue Districts are nailing it.

Money quote (graph)

https://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2020/05/26/coronavirus-death-toll-is-heavily-concentrated-in-democratic-congressional-districts/ft_20-05-26_coviddeaths4/

Full link from PEW

‘Coronavirus death toll is heavily concentrated in Democratic congressional districts’

https://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2020/05/26/coronavirus-death-toll-is-heavily-concentrated-in-democratic-congressional-districts/

As Dr. Rebane wrote on his post, “And if you’re going to publish something about it, you’d better be at least numerate. Today none of that is a prerequisite before spouting volumes about the pandemic.”

Blue Districts doing good job, Deplorable Districts not so very much, lol.

[The Estonian Fox]

Long web address for a nice map-of-the-day, by county, of Wuhan virus deaths, on Mark Perry's website. It's easy bein' green.

https://www.aei.org/carpe-diem/map-of-the-day-us-population-divided-by-one-thirds-of-covid-deaths/?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+blogspot%2FmmMP+%28CARPE+DIEM%29

[Bill Tozer]

Where are the deaths? Nursing homes.

Why does FL have on tenth the COVID-19 deaths of NY, while having a larger population. The subways? Dunno, but I do know FL has an international city.

I present for the readers attention that while NY put stable, yet positive COVID elderly patiences back in nursing homes, FL took immediate action and put their researches on protecting the elderly and found other places to isolate and house the elderly patients with positive tests. It’s not rocket science. Glad to see Nevada County locked down nursing facilities, which might explain why CA has 1/6 the deaths as NY and surrounding areas, with a greater population.

‘More Than 60% Of Nursing Homes Fail To Test All Residents, Staff Members For COVID-19’

https://www.oann.com/more-than-60-of-nursing-homes-fail-to-test-all-residents-staff-members-for-covid-19-per-white-house-request/
—————————
ANDREW CUOMO KILLED GRANDMA AND THE NEW YORK ECONOMY

“However, Cuomo’s decisions made a bad situation considerably worse. Says McManus:

There’s a growing consensus that New York was late in recognizing the coronavirus threat, that its numbers were unsound and that it was too slow to react. And when action did come, it was at once confused, over-broad and heavy-handed, thus damaging to the economy — and in at least one instance, needlessly under-inclusive and thus lethal.

That “one instance” was, of course, nursing homes. It was in these facilities that Cuomo “killed grandma” by requiring nursing homes to receive recovering, yet still contagious, coronavirus patients. McManus points out that the number of deaths from the coronavirus in New York nursing homes exceeds significantly the total number of coronavirus deaths in the entire state of California.

Cuomo has never offered a satisfactory explanation, either the New York’s terrible overall numbers or his deadly decisions on nursing homes. Pathetically, he blames President Trump, rather than his health commissioner, for the nursing home fiasco.

Mainstream media types are mostly averting their eyes from Cuomo’s dreadful performance. But at least I no longer hear them touting the guy as a replacement Democratic presidential candidate.“

https://www.powerlineblog.com/archives/2020/05/andrew-cuomo-killed-grandma-and-the-new-york-economy.php

[George Rebane]

Given the dubious reliability of C19 death reports and tallies, my question to readers is 'how are you accepting (or vetting) such mortality data?' It sounds to me like everyone is pretty much sanguine with whatever report they run across.

[Paul Emery]

Don writes"Democrats are far more likely to live in counties where the virus has ravaged the community, while Republicans are more likely to live in counties that have been relatively unscathed by the illness, though they are paying an economic price. "

That's not true Don. We livein a Demodrat leaning county and have very few cases.

[Don Bessee]

Note to the pony tail of ignorance -

That was the analysis of the NYT not my verbiage. LOL!

;-)

[George Rebane]

Then there are exceptions that demonstrate the rule.

[Bill Tozer]

My friend from Wyoming (the last state of the Union to report a C-19 death) had to go to Fort Collins, Co. He was stunned. After living in Wyoming through the Plague, he walked into a Costco (or similar place) in Colorado and everybody was wearing a mask. He could not believe the difference between the two states. He rarely sees anyone with a mask on in WY, even at Costco.

Stack and pack is the antithesis to social distancing. Rural areas make possible what Blue areas of intense infestation and death find impossible to replicate. Elbow room. Thank goodness we live in a Red District and locked down our nursing homes.

Go back to Berkeley you stink-asses and rejoin the ‘too many rats in the cage’ urban jungle from whence you came. :)

[Bill Tozer]

A follow up to my 8:53 am....spin, brother, spin

‘Pew Research Center Hilariously Tries to Spin Dem Failures at Fighting Coronavirus’

https://bongino.com/pew-research-center-hilariously-tries-to-spin-dem-failures-in-fighting-coronavirus

[Bill Tozer]

re: The PAN-Dem-IC

@BuckSexton
·Masks can help in some situations for certain people against covid, but it’s very clear that the mandates and virtue signaling behind it are because the Left has turned the mask into the anti-MAGA hat of the 2020 election.
——————-
Cuomo and De Blasio are holding NYC hostage, refusing to open until enough “tracers” in place

This is MORONIC

Keep in mind tracers will only trace those in close contact with covid+ person for over 10 mins

If thats the standard, why the hell are we made to wear masks OUTSIDE?

https://twitter.com/BuckSexton

[Scott O]

re Emery at 12:52 - Oh my.
It's a statistical TREND, Paul.
Not every case has to follow the trend to make the trend true.
And yes - I'm mansplaining.

[Bill Tozer]

CORONAVIRUS IN ONE STATE (52)

“The authorities attributed 18 new deaths to COVID-19 in the data released yesterday. This brings the total of all such deaths to 899. Fifteen of the 18 deaths occurred among residents of long-term care and assisted living facilities, bringing this total to 732. LTC deaths account for nearly 81.5 percent of the total. Unbelievable, and yet the Minnesota media snooze on.

The age breakdown of the new decedents continues to skew toward the elderly. One of the 18 new decedents was in his 100’s, 7 were in their 90’s, five were in their 80’s, one was in his 70’s, three were in their 60’s, and one was in his 40’s.

Commissioner Malcolm wants it to be known that we are all at risk of the disease. Implicit in her message is her defense of Governor Walz’s continuing exercise of control over our daily lives. She also wants it to be known that the Minnesota Model they rolled out to great fanfare only two weeks ago is not to be taken too seriously. Implicit in her message is the acknowledgment that the model is a joke. And yet Governor Walz presented a vision of the apocalypse in his March 25 speech announcing his big shutdown order based on super duper Minnesota Model 1.0. Now we know the joke was on us.“

https://www.powerlineblog.com/archives/2020/05/coronavirus-in-one-state-52.php

Which begs the unanswered question. Why does WI have a lower death rate due to C-19 than neighboring Minnesota? WI has a larger population (about a half million more), has urban centers like MN, and are basically the same in demos, incomes, same geography etc. Why, why, why?

I dunno.
I dunno.