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10 May 2020

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scenes

This seems like a good spot. I ran into a response on a discussion on Ferguson's Infamous Simulator & Travelling Salvation Show.

"In a Sunday Times interview with Prof Ferguson on 29/3, the latter was quoted saying of his ICL model “the code is not a mess. It’s all in my head, completely undocumented”."

lol. I just had to marvel at this. Looking at all the to'ing and fro'ing on this guy's clump of software, I'm starting to build my own theory on 'software as religion'. It's like Egyptian religions after a thousand (or two) years of a particular set of handwaving and sacrifices, it becomes a blackbox that you just have to believe in. Imagine what we are in for in the future.

scenes

"OK boys and girls, can we all now spell ‘H-E-R-D I-M-M-U-N-I-T-Y’, and then ‘V-A-C-C-I-N-E’?"

It all confuses me a bit. As I understood the concept, the whole point of lockdowns and the like was to avoid overloading hospitals. There never was an intention to stop the advance of the virus cold (so to speak) and one likely result was to cause the epidemic to last for a longer time period.

It seems to me that the public has got it in it's pointy head that this is all an attempt to eradicate the virus entirely. If the entire country just stays home for a year or two and waits for the vaccine, no one gets sick. A great idea until the Cap'n Crunch stops being delivered to Safeway and starving masses start pounding on the doors of people with 500 lbs of canned wheat in the basement.

As for lambasting Trump, well, the Blue Mob's gotta mob. It's something of a perfect storm in that they'll believe any old thing in order to get their man in office, plus they share a belief system in the superiority of a strong central government to fix all matters. Anyone expecting an apparatchik in DC at FEMA to decide whether to close restaurants in a small rural county in California is simply wrong or a fool. 'Fool' is a good default guess.

Paul Emery

George you write: OK boys and girls, can we all now spell ‘H-E-R-D I-M-M-U-N-I-T-Y’, and then ‘V-A-C-C-I-N-E’?

Do you disagree with Trump when he says:

“I feel about vaccines like I feel about tests: This is going to go away without a vaccine,” Trump said. “It’s going to go away, and we’re not going to see it again, hopefully, after a period of time.”

https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2020/05/08/trump-says-coronavirus-will-disappear-without-vaccine-fauci-has-said-opposite/

Todd Juvinall

Trump is correct that these eventually going away. Nature is amazing.

George Rebane

PaulE 1132am - I think I've described in detail how C19 should be allowed to go away. First, through herd immunity accompanied by ongoing prudent public behavior while a vaccine is developed; then augmented through widespread vaccination of the population. During this interval people will continue to die of C19 at an acceptable rate. Thinkers know that our society has a plethora of acceptable death rates from all kinds of causes, including longstanding ones from black-on-black crimes, opioid prescriptions, car accidents, annual flus, ... . Human lives are not of infinite worth as long as the politics of death holds sway.

Walt

Emery still won't go near the sandbox. And don't know squat about how a virus works. By the time something is called a "vaccine",, the bug will have mutated and all that work shot to shit.
But continue to bow to the altar of CNN and PMSNBC.
Be afraid Emery,, be VERY afraid.

Paul Emery

So George it seems you agree with Trump when he says C19 will "go away without a vaccine,”

Is Trumps view a good position for us to take as a national policy dealing with the situation?

George Rebane

PaulE 1223pm - You have yet to state your misunderstanding of Trump's "position" on the continuing response to C19. Let us have that first, and then I'll deal with it. So far you're just giving us a partial quote that you think will serve as a position.

scenes

Walt: "Emery still won't go near the sandbox. And don't know squat about how a virus works."

You know, I honestly think you're right. It's easy enough to see the future.. a somewhat more deadly, somewhat more contagious virus than a flu, but pretty similar. Policy will be as per usual, personal hygiene, somewhat ineffective vaccines, old people are more careful than the young. Trump is right of course by saying it'll go away. Of course, that's different than policy, which is a thousand different things by a hundred government bodies.

In the meantime the sun goes up in the morning, Paul plays word games for his special audience (which likely consists of several anatomically correct Ann Coulter action figures and a small invisible friend named Mr. Bear), and the virus could care less about US politics.

fish

Posted by: Paul Emery | 11 May 2020 at 12:23 PM


I would have loved to be a fly on the wall during your formative years........


So Mother it seems you agree with Father when he says "I need to mow the lawn and take out the trash." Is Fathers view a good position for us to take as a household policy dealing with the situation?


Who talks like this.......?

The Estonian Fox

On CNBC this morn, Ortho Clinical Diagnostics CEO Steven Smith stated that their antibody covid test has 100% specificity (@ 0:29 of 4:42 interview). I guess we'll see if the marketing words are correct.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=890ZTtMVCuA

The Estonian Fox

Sorry - Chris Smith is the CEO's name.

Walt

Emery and the LIBS are still rooting for the virus. Their hopes and dreams depend on it killing Trump, and/or his election.
The economy be damned.

Some Lefty mentioned ebola. The very first cases in the U.S. made people plenty sick, but didn't kill'm.
That ain't the same for today. It's now much deadlyer.
Yes, they did come up with an experimental treatment but at a huge cost. They managed to make four or five doses.

As people are finding out, a "cure" to a virus don't work like it does in the movies.
Wait till you guys find out DNA arrests from skin samples is pure TV.

Bill Tozer

Young Buck sez

"What you’re seeing right now is the Trump admin has, by the latest numbers, shut down the favorite talking point of those who want to attack Trump’s covid response- “testing testing testing!”- and like a robot that has malfunctioned, they keep idiotically repeating themselves"
----
"320 million Americans are waiting to return to normal life, Testing is the primary hurdle to that in most state re-open plans, and the journos at the White House are obsessively asking about testing “double standards” for White House staff over and over So petty and pathetic"

Bill Tozer

COVID-19: the bluffer’s guide

https://spectator.us/covid-19-bluffers-guide/

Paul Emery

George

Here is the link to my quote. It also has a video of Trump making the statement (many times). Also if that's not good enough here is the entire piece for your conveniance. Anything elsde I can help you with?:

https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2020/05/08/trump-says-coronavirus-will-disappear-without-vaccine-fauci-has-said-opposite/

"Trump says coronavirus will disappear without a vaccine. Fauci has said the opposite.

President Trump has been bullish about a coronavirus vaccine — so much so that experts have had to talk him off a more aggressive timeline for it.

But on Friday, Trump seemed to shift his rhetoric on the topic, saying we don’t even need one for the virus to go away. “I just rely on what doctors say,” Trump said when pressed.

Except that’s not what his coronavirus task force doctor, Anthony S. Fauci, says.

Trump offered his new comments about the potential vaccine Friday afternoon at the White House.

“I feel about vaccines like I feel about tests: This is going to go away without a vaccine,” Trump said. “It’s going to go away, and we’re not going to see it again, hopefully, after a period of time.”

Trump said that there could be “flare-ups,” including in the fall, but that it would go away regardless.

Sign up for our Coronavirus Updates newsletter to track the outbreak. All stories linked in the newsletter are free to access.

“There are some viruses or flus that came and they went for a vaccine, and they never found the vaccine,” Trump said. “And they’ve disappeared. They never showed up again. They die, too, like everything else.”

Pressed on the claim, he doubled down.

“They say it’s going to go — that doesn’t mean this year — doesn’t mean it’s going to be gone, frankly, by fall or after the fall,” Trump said. “But eventually it’s going to go away. The question is will we need a vaccine. At some point it’s going to probably go away by itself. If we had a vaccine that would be very helpful.”

Fauci, though, has said we need a vaccine.

A few weeks ago, Fauci was asked on Fox News about comments Joe Biden had made, that “this isn’t going to be over until we have a vaccine.”

Fauci responded: “There’s truth to that. It’s not going to be over to the point of our being able to not do any mitigation until we have a scientifically sound, safe and effective vaccine.”

A week earlier, at a White House briefing, Fauci was asked whether we will “truly get back to normal in this country before there’s an actual vaccine that’s available to everybody.”

Fauci said we wouldn’t.

“If ‘back to normal’ means acting like there never was a coronavirus problem, I don’t think that’s going to happen until we do have a situation where you can completely protect the population,” Fauci said.

While the question was specifically about a vaccine, Fauci’s answer seemed to allow for the alternative of a very effective treatment. But Fauci said of the question about the vaccine, “You’re absolutely right.”

“I mean, if you want to get to pre-coronavirus, you know, that might not ever happen in the sense of the fact that the threat is there,” he said. “But I believe, with the therapies that will be coming online, and with the fact that I feel confident that over a period of time we will get a good vaccine, that we will never have to get back to where we are right now.”

Trump’s comments also contrast with what he said a few days ago in a Fox News town hall. Trump at the time said the country is in “need” of a vaccine.

“And I want it — I need the vaccine,” Trump said Sunday. “We need — this country needs the vaccine. And you’re going to have it by the end of the year. I firmly believe it. I may be wrong.”

Gregory

punchy 134pm

“At some point it’s going to probably go away by itself. If we had a vaccine that would be very helpful.”-Trump


you're complaining about that?

Walt

Emery.. Where was the "vaccine" for the Spanish flu? The Swine flu? You never have answers to that.
Miss the news? "No vaccine may ever be found". Welcome to reality. (No guts to show up in the sandbox?)

George Rebane

PaulE 134pm - Still not sure what hill you're attacking or which one you want me to defend. Trump has been all over the place on C19, and so has Fauci. And so have pretty much everyone who has prognosticated about this epidemic over the last 2 or 3 months. Fauci's statements have not provided any more information to any thinker who has been tracking C19 - they are nothing but a string of platitudes the reliability of each varies over the days. Read your citation again and tell us what new thing you learned from the WaPo article. I didn't learn anything that was not obvious a couple of months ago.

What I'd like to hear from Fauci or any of the national experts is what exact process of testing (infection or immunity) they would recommend to provide results that would support what kind of response policy. About real information like that, there has been absolutely NOTHING. If Fauci knows of one, he should spill the beans. If there is no such testing scheme known or being planned, then he should spill the beans. If he knows nothing about that, then he should continue slinging pabulum as he's doing now. But what he should really do is get hold of someone who could design such testing processes - I bet there are thousands of such people in America, I am one of them, give me a call.

Don Bessee

A manipulation that only a po' ol' fakenewsman could love -

https://www.foxnews.com/media/cnn-accused-egregious-misreading-data-coronavirus-gallup-poll

;-)

Walt

Where did Emery go? He hasn't said what stopped the Spanish flu (you know,, the 1918 killer?) or the swine flu.
They developed a vaccine,,, right?

Don Bessee

So it begins -

https://www.theunion.com/news/state-approves-nevada-county-for-stage-2-reopening/

;-)

scenes

re: GeorgeR@1:57PM

Good post.

My take is that there's very little rigor to epidemic predictions or policy making and that we are simply seeing the result of meetings combined with the typical lethargy of government.

The President picks up some factoids from department heads, makes the occasional decision, and the whole machine marches on.

There are likely a fair number of useful things happening but they are winging it. I'm not altogether sure if the bigger problem might be that epidemiologists make poor planners (and the planners don't know the science) or simply that no one really knows what exactly to do. Probably the latter.

About the only folks with a clear-cut mission are Blue Mob propagandists, but then that's an easy job.

George Rebane

scenes 539pm - I think you nailed it Mr scenes. I will have more to say about the governmental disconnects involved in managing the C19 response.

Don Bessee

Here are the rules for opening up restaurants -

https://covid19.ca.gov/pdf/guidance-dine-in-restaurants.pdf

;-)

Paul Emery

George

My focus was on Trumps statement that “I feel about vaccines like I feel about tests: This is going to go away without a vaccine, It’s going to go away, and we’re not going to see it again, hopefully, after a period of time.”

Do you agree with Trumps assumption and how does that fit in with your statement that "OK boys and girls, can we all now spell ‘H-E-R-D I-M-M-U-N-I-T-Y’, and then ‘V-A-C-C-I-N-E’?"

I mean Trump actually believes his own statements that the virus will go away without a vaccine. Hmmm. I remember his saying that two months ago and what do we have now? 85,000 deaths. Gosh and golly it didn't go away did it and he's still claiming that it will.

George, for the life of me I don't see how and why you cater to such an idiot as Trump. It's really beyond me that a person with your intellect and education would support him but sad to say you do.

Don Bessee

#sad @ 739 Why, Why, Why???????

;-)

Walt

Wrong Emery,, now for the third time. Did the Spanish flu and swine flu go away because of a vaccine?
The answer is NO. They went away all on their own.

You really suck at this. But what can one expect from a member of the proggy press?

Your dripping hate of Trump is really unbecoming.

fish

Posted by: scenes | 12 May 2020 at 05:39 PM

....or the whole world is taking their lead from a horny Brit who couldn't wait to break lockdown....the lockdown he said was crucial ....so he could sneak over and bang his "Open Marriage" having lover!


Sweet Meteor of Death why hast thou forsaken us??????

fish

Posted by: Paul Emery | 12 May 2020 at 07:39 PM

George, for the life of me I don't see how and why you cater to such an idiot as Trump. It's really beyond me that a person with your intellect and education would support him but sad to say you do.


Punchy, for the life of me I don't see how and why George caters to an idiot like yourself. It's really beyond me that a person with his intellect and education would see you in any way other than a normal person looks at the common kitchen cockroach.


Paul Emery

Walt

So that's your great idea Walt-comparing it to the Spanish Flu and Swine that "went away all on their own."

Lets see, the Spanish Flu killed an estimated 20 million to 50 million victims, including some 675,000 Americans. Is that what you and Trump have in mind by saying it will go away without a vaccine. That's surprising even from you Walt.

Paul Emery


You should hang out with us sometime fish or whoever you are. We go out to lunch every other week, before the shutdown that is. We're actually good friends.

Walt

It's called FACTS Emery, They may NEVER be a vaccine. That's also a FACT.
Did they or did they NOT go away on their own?

OK ,, Bird flu?(also from China) Name the vaccine.

So tell us, how it will magically go away if Biden is elected?
He's supposed to have such a GREAT plan.

fish

Posted by: Paul Emery | 12 May 2020 at 08:25 PM


So I’ve been told.....and what prompted the statement.

fish

Posted by: Paul Emery | 12 May 2020 at 08:23 PM


Lets see, the Spanish Flu killed an estimated 20 million to 50 million victims, including some 675,000 Americans. Is that what you and Trump have in mind by saying it will go away without a vaccine. That's surprising even from you Walt.


What’s surprising? That Walt is right.....nahh.....not surprising at all.....Walt is right on a regular basis.....far more often than you.

1918 flu went away on its own didn’t it Punch?

Paul Emery


What prompted the statement? What statement mine or yours?

fish, you don't have a clue about the friendship that George and I have despite our political differences.

fish

Posted by: Paul Emery | 12 May 2020 at 08:50 PM


I can’t hand hold you through the comment threads Punch.

George Rebane

PaulE - I'm not so much concerned with Trump's day-to-day statements or their wild interpretations by the TDS crowd. But I do know that before vaccines, all epidemics went away 'by themselves', aka herd immunity. And that occurred with the inevitable flare-ups that followed the main wave. What you and yours are not considering is the cost in lives, morbidity, and social order if we let our economy die. It will make the 675K American dead from the Spanish flu seem like small potatoes. Let's open up the economy and conduct ourselves prudently until a vaccine arrives (or not).

Bill Tozer

Don’t make the cure worse than the disease:

‘The data is in — stop the panic and end the total isolation‘

Fact 3: Vital population immunity is prevented by total isolation policies, prolonging the problem.

We know from decades of medical science that infection itself allows people to generate an immune response — antibodies — so that the infection is controlled throughout the population by “herd immunity.” Indeed, that is the main purpose of widespread immunization in other viral diseases — to assist with population immunity. In this virus, we know that medical care is not even necessary for the vast majority of people who are infected. It is so mild that half of infected people are asymptomatic, shown in early data from the Diamond Princess ship, and then in Iceland and Italy. That has been falsely portrayed as a problem requiring mass isolation. In fact, infected people without severe illness are the immediately available vehicle for establishing widespread immunity. By transmitting the virus to others in the low-risk group who then generate antibodies, they block the network of pathways toward the most vulnerable people, ultimately ending the threat. Extending whole-population isolation would directly prevent that widespread immunity from developing.

Fact 4: People are dying because other medical care is not getting done due to hypothetical projections.

Critical health care for millions of Americans is being ignored and people are dying to accommodate “potential” COVID-19 patients and for fear of spreading the disease. Most states and many hospitals abruptly stopped “nonessential” procedures and surgery. That prevented diagnoses of life-threatening diseases, like cancer screening, biopsies of tumors now undiscovered and potentially deadly brain aneurysms. Treatments, including emergency care, for the most serious illnesses were also missed. Cancer patients deferred chemotherapy. An estimated 80 percent of brain surgery cases were skipped. Acute stroke and heart attack patients missed their only chances for treatment, some dying and many now facing permanent disability.

Fact 5: We have a clearly defined population at risk who can be protected with targeted measures.

Bill Tozer

Link for above post

https://thehill.com/opinion/healthcare/494034-the-data-are-in-stop-the-panic-and-end-the-total-isolation
————————————
Best pivot from Forever Lockdown crowd has been “but we aren’t nearly culturally/politically similar enough to Sweden to copy their approach!”

To

“Why haven’t we copied South Korea’s approach? Americans will have no problem with ankle monitors and govt apps checking them”--Buck
——————————
Is testing the goal or a goal? I got a kick over a Trump’s press conference yesterday. The press have been hounding Trump on why we are behind other countries in testing, day in and week out. Testing, testing, testing...playing the endless loop.

So Trump makes the announcement that we are testing more than other countries.
Keep in mind that Trump was literally standing by a large sign that read “AMERICA LEADS THE WORLD IN TESTING”. Clearly, this was the focus of the press briefing. Trump made a point of telling reporters that anyone who wants a test can get a test. He often says the United States is doing more testing than any other country, for example.

Then a reporter asked him, without refuting Trump’s numbers or data, “Why does that matter? Why is this a global competition to you if every day Americans are still losing their lives?”

Oh my. Forget testing, it’s Trump acting like this is some competitive sport that’s the real issue.

BTW, testing centers are closing down In spots because no one is showing up. Mercy.

scenes

"BTW, testing centers are closing down In spots because no one is showing up. Mercy."

It no matter. My guess is that the Fingers 2020 crowd will start amping up a new bit of messaging. My favorite proposal here is 'contact tracing' as magic bullet, plus you get the added value of proposing a temporary (ie. permanent) bit of additional surveillance to apply to the general public.

Reporter: PRESIDENT TRUMP, WHY ARE YOU LETTING PEOPLE DIE!! IN LIECHTENSTEIN THEY ARE USING CONTACT TRACING!!

Although there's still some legs to testing. There's always some guy who didn't get his testing, plus there'll be the new goal of Universal Testing For All Americans. Add the time dimension, and there'll be the requirement for Universal Daily Testing, although the foot long Q-Tip is gonna get boring.

In the meantime, no one can explain what good it all does. It's the same kind of magical thinking that believes in vaccines that will save the day. There's a kind of pyramid of ignorance here with a meme (testing!) at the top, a sentence 'explaining' it next, and some half-remembered news reader on TV at the base.

While I'm indulging in Typing Tourette's, why in the heck have restaurants become the standard for 're-opening' the economy? I can certainly think of a lot of places that could run at full capacity given a bit of safety thought, while leaving bars,restaurants,concerts, theatres shut down. Maybe the local problem is that a business unfriendly community leads you to an economy primarily composed of those things.

George Rebane

Maybe I should post a reward for the first reader who discovers what kind of testing process is supposed provide what kind of evidence to support what kind of response policy. Testing dumbth seems to the other (intellectual) pandemic sweeping the country.

Bill Tozer

Scenes @ 7:15 am

“BTW, testing centers are closing down In spots because no one is showing up. Mercy."

I need to amend that statement. ‘Underutilized‘ is the term used. It’s not accurate to say nobody showed up. A few must have.

“BTW, testing centers are closing down In spots because they are underutilized. Mercy."

Mea Culpa. Much better now.

scenes

Things go on as per usual in the rest of the world.

"President queries Tanzania coronavirus kits after goat test

DAR ES SALAAM (Reuters) - Coronavirus test kits used in Tanzania were dismissed as faulty by President John Magufuli on Sunday, because he said they had returned positive results on samples taken from a goat and a pawpaw."

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-tanzania-idUSKBN22F0KF

Bill Tozer

Damn the torpedos, full speed ahead.

Quotable Quote: “I just want to make something clear. It’s very important: Vaccine or no vaccine, we’re back.”— Donald J Trump

WARP IT UP

“The project has been given the name Operation Warp Speed. Trump himself recalled the Manhattan Project in his announcement of the project (White House text here). He named Dr. Moncef Slaoui — “a world-renowned immunologist who helped create 14 new vaccines — that’s a lot of our new vaccines — in 10 years, during his time in the private sector” — to head the effort.”

https://www.powerlineblog.com/archives/2020/05/warp-it-up.php


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