Where is the Covid Deaths Bump?

George Rebane

For the past week I’ve been poring over various data from different sources on Covid-19 deaths and death rates.  It’s been a frustrating enterprise due to definitions ranging from vague to insane, and numbers that just don’t tie.  The quest is important though, because we have been deluged for the past couple of months with what can now be called the metrics of mass madness.  The ongoing efforts to afflict major damage to our economy are all based on the allegation that a national lockdown will greatly reduce the number of people dying from the virus, and therefore the calls for opening up are nothing less than the voices of greed putting profits before people.

However, when we take a closer look at C19 deaths, the lockdown arguments and reasoning don’t add up.  What every histrionics laden report ignores and/or hides is the entire question of how many would have died anyway from their ‘underlying conditions’, or from the legion of other causes that kill almost 2.9 million Americans year in and year out.  In other words, at any given age, if you don’t die of this, then you’ll die of that anyway, C19 or no C19.

So, from all the blizzard of mostly irrelevant and bad data available to us, the objective to sustain lockdown arguments is to see if there is an abnormal bump in the current number of deaths due to the corona virus.  We must also keep in mind the hanky-panky that is going on with how C19 deaths have been and are being counted – in many health care systems/institutions patients dying of anything during this epidemic have been put down as succumbing to C19.  The National Center for Health Statistics assures us that the most reliable data are the “provisional death counts (that) deliver our most comprehensive picture of lives lost to COVID-19. These estimates are based on death certificates, which are the most reliable source of data and contain information not available anywhere else, including comorbid conditions, race and ethnicity, and place of death.”  (more here)

So here’s the drill.  The CDC tallies total C19 deaths from 1 Feb 2020 to 1 May 2020 at 37,308 out of a total of 719,438 US deaths for that three-month period (here).  The current ‘normal’ (pre-C19) annual death rate in 2019 for the US is 8.8 per thousand (here).  This says that out of a population of 328,000,000 we have a total of about 2,886,400 Americans die annually, or 722,000 during a three-month period (or 55,500 every week).  To emphasize again, this is the pre-C19 death rate for last year.  Not to put too sharp a point on it, this year’s total deaths, with C19 raging in that three-month period, don’t even come up to our norm for a three-month period.

The reasonable explanation is that the corona virus’s marginal contribution to America’s annual deaths count is literally so low as to be swallowed by the country’s natural mortality rate.  Highlighting (hyping?) C19 deaths due to the worldwide pandemic has made us all accept draconian personal lockdowns and the arguably insane shutdown of America’s commerce.  And it has been done without the presentation of any substantive information (i.e. data formatted to support decision making), only the daily death counts and emotional appeals to ‘save human lives’ from the ravages of a disease that is doing little or nothing extraordinary, save focus our fearful attention on it so that we will compliantly accept new layers of controls from federal and state governments pursuing more fundamental agendas while desperately seeking to convince us that they are ‘doing something’.  So today we have a population that does not understand the role, power, and development of herd immunity in stopping pandemics.  And most certainly, no one has asked to see the extraordinary bump in total deaths caused by C19 (aka SARS-CoV-2).  Is this how sheeple behave?

Comments

[The Estonian Fox]

George-
In answer to your first question (a single word it was) YES.
Answer to 2nd question - YES.

I have not seen anyone discussing the death bump either. I'm surprised at your numbers - with the Wuhan virus deaths, I figured total quarterly would be up by the 37,308 less a few hundred who would have died anyway from something else. Even allowing for variability, I have to conclude that in the 3 months you cover, Americans must be eating nothing but Beyond Meat burgers & salads, and exercising their asses off to account for some of the drop in deaths.

In addition, there have been 'complaints' that hospital visits (ER & elective procedures both) have been heading to ground, resulting in various hospitals laying off medical personnel. Maybe we are seeing the decrease in iatrogenic deaths paying off - more people survive by NOT seeing a doc. Who'da thunk it? Estimates of iatrogenic deaths have been from 96,000 to 255,000 annually in the last few years. So in 3 months, that may account for 25K to 60K fewer doc-induced deaths.

Other contributors - reduction in murders & drug overdoses; no school shootings in the last 4 months; and fewer highway accidents. So it looks like Trump has succeeded in reducing the overall death count to help save us. How are the Dems going to use this negative increase in death counts against him now? In addition, he has exposed the true dictators residing in some of our cities, state capitals, and police forces.

[Paul Emery]

George

So what's your point George? Are you saying that the Covid 19 epidemic is insignificant and we should do nothing about it and go about as bushiness as usual?

[George Rebane]

PaulE 334pm - I introduced my "point" over a month ago, and have been supporting it since. It looks like you haven't paid any attention to my C19 commentaries, so I'm going to leave it up to you to dig it out. But I'll give you a hint: I am not saying C19 is "insignificant", nor am I saying that "we should do nothing about it and go about as bushiness(sic) as usual". Is this another one of your attempts to put black/white words in someone's mouth? Nuance! think nuance.

[Paul Emery]

George:

When you write. " the corona virus’s marginal contribution to America’s annual deaths count is literally so low as to be swallowed by the country’s natural mortality rate " doesn't that imply that, in my words, you are "saying that the Covid 19 epidemic is insignificant..." ?

[Paul Emery]

George

Certainly by your script you imply that Virus deaths are an insignificant proportion of the national death rate.

" the corona virus’s marginal contribution to America’s annual deaths count is literally so low as to be swallowed by the country’s natural mortality rate "
3:50

[George Rebane]

PaulE 917pm - That is what the published data shows. And it's the marginal deaths that should drive public policies. Do you have an alternative argument?

[Don Bessee]

Hey they don't call ya the pony tail of ignorance for nothing!

The actuaries are digesting this all as we speak and given the high percentage of care home deaths in the hot spots the details may well say that a lot of that population could have had another cause sans wuhan sars in their near term.

Somehow I think it would be a bad idea to get into a number crunching battle with the good Dr. LOL

;-)

[Bill Tozer]

Well, looks like Governor La Mont is following in the exact footsteps of Gov. Cuomo. Birds of a feather, forcing nursing homes to accept Wuhan Virus positive patients. That sickens me in a way words cannot express

‘Nearly 90 percent of the coronavirus deaths in Connecticut last week were nursing home patients’

https://www.courant.com/coronavirus/hc-news-coronavirus-80percent-deaths-20200506-fuhlhtusajb7dd7p6sf5xekl54-story.html?

[Bill Tozer]

Counting the dead.

Joke last week was a man drove his car off a nasty cliff and his body tested positive for C19 (aka SARS-CoV-2). Cause of death was C19 (aka SARS-CoV-2).

Man, there are certain age groups (a lot) in a lot of places which means in layman’s terms, you got a 0.014 chance of dying from C19 (aka SARS-CoV-2).
——-
Not about the dead, just about Hospital intakes and who? Whom?

Shocking I say, absolutely shocking!

“Cuomo says it’s ‘shocking’ most new coronavirus hospitalizations are people who had been staying home”

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/05/06/ny-gov-cuomo-says-its-shocking-most-new-coronavirus-hospitalizations-are-people-staying-home.html?

Is it just me, or does anyone else remember, say 2-3 weeks ago, they were all over Gov Ron DeSantis for his crazy ideas and totally blowing it in Florida? Man, they turned the Gov into a piraña and suddenly nobody would have him on their news shows and everybody just stopped talking to the Gov. My, my, they are talking to him again. Whatever he did in FLA, DeSantis walked all over Cuomo, and Jersey for death and hospitalization numbers per capita in The Sunshine State. Castro bad juju down there.

Focus on keeping the most vulnerable SAFE: Think Grandma. Priority number one. Grandma you idiots. That’s where you put resources, not at this other bull pucky and forget about the most vulnerable. Yo, quit turning your backs on Grandma. Keep her under wraps, but let the children play.,

[The Estonian Fox]

George,

I just clicked on the CDC data you referenced, and their numbers show 771,637 deaths total, with 44,016 covid deaths from weeks ending Feb 01 through May 02. They are different, and a little larger, than the 37,308 & 719,348 that you have. Where is the difference from?

[scenes]

Paul Emery: "Are you saying that the Covid 19 epidemic is insignificant"

Paul Emery: "Certainly by your script you imply that Virus deaths are an insignificant proportion of the national death rate."

lol. Can't you see that those are different statements? I guess if insignificant = insignificant proportion, no one should worry about the 11,000 gun homicides per year. I'd love to see you making that point to the rest of the KVMR news team.

GeorgeR to Paul: "Do you have an alternative argument?"

That's as close to a canonical example of a rhetorical question as I'll ever see.

It's easy to second guess our lords and masters, but I have to say that I'm surprised we haven't seen more specialized policies by now. By that I mean that you spend more money and effort on at-risk populations and less on the vast majority who are relatively immune to horrendous health effects. Maybe that's Phase II of some master plan we haven't seen.

My sneaky suspicion is that you could randomly grab some tolerably bright people off the street and put them in charge of the county health department with little change in outcome.

[fish]

Posted by: scenes | 07 May 2020 at 07:16 AM

My sneaky suspicion is that you could randomly grab some tolerably bright people off the street and put them in charge of the county health department with little change in outcome.

There would probably be far less in the way of "spoils" to spread around to "associates".

[George Rebane]

EF 457am - Yes, the reporting of incoherent, time-variable data is the problem that I pointed out. No doubt going back to the links I provide will also present different numbers on different days. Sometimes the total death count has even gone down with no one claiming divine resurrection. Multiple agencies - CDC, NCHS, John Hopkins, WHO, ..., various websites - claim to track the same stats using different definitions, collection methods, sources, and so on. When you attempt a little research on the matter, you discover it's a zoo out there.

[scenes]

Make of it what you will.

"As the Defense Department negotiates its way through the coronavirus pandemic and its fallout, military entrance processing stations are working with new guidance when it comes to bringing COVID-19 survivors into the services.

A past COVID-19 diagnosis is a no-go for processing, according to a recently released MEPCOM memo circulating on Twitter.

“During the medical history interview or examination, a history of COVID-19, confirmed by either a laboratory test or a clinician diagnosis, is permanently disqualifying ...” the memo reads."

https://www.militarytimes.com/news/your-military/2020/05/06/coronavirus-survivors-banned-from-joining-the-military/

[fish]

Posted by: scenes | 07 May 2020 at 09:48 AM

“During the medical history interview or examination, a history of COVID-19, confirmed by either a laboratory test or a clinician diagnosis, is permanently disqualifying ...” the memo reads."

Just wait until there is another force structure crunch.....then all that is out the window!

[Paul Emery]

So George in your view where do we go from here?

[George Rebane]

PaulE 1059am - We follow the examples of Sweden and Germany, and launch a prudently aggressive program promoting the return to commercial normalcy while experimenting with various approaches to reducing inter-personal contacts as the last vestiges of C19 die out. There will be inevitable 'second wave' flare-ups here and there as herd immunity increases and before a vaccine arrives, and these flare-ups should be detectable through a well-designed, effective, and adaptive program of infection testing carried out across the country.

[Bill Tozer]

@11:22 am

So, where do we go from here? Agree with Dr Rebane.

We all went along with a two week shut-down to keep our hospitals and health care providers from being overrun to “flatten the curb.” The curve has been flatten and the goalposts have been moved to basically until a vaccine is available at your local doctor’s office or the neighborhood RX. Now, we hear about the inevitable second wave. The hospitals are ready, under capacity, and should be ready and equipped to handle the second wave.....until a new virus hits our shores. The field tents have been taken down and packed up, the Naval Hospital Ships have been sent back, and all eyes are looking for flare ups.

The only pace I can visualize the need for aggressive testing is in parts off New York City. An outbreak could emerge anytime from just a densely populated high rise apartment building or in just block one of the Boroughs. Testing should be done repeatedly in real hot spots, door to door if necessary, weekly. That will work in conjunction with flattening the curb by flattening the flare ups.

Flattening the Curb does not mean elimination of the curve and was never meant to be. Smashing the curve into the ground as never the current objective...unless you are a scientist expert when one death is too many.

As a side note, I remain amazed how many elderly who have tested positive for COVID have recovered. The vast majority. I am equally amazed by the recovery rate of the population in general. Saw a study that 7 out of 8 folks under 50 who tested positive had no idea they had COVID Chanel #5.

Where do we go from here? When, the winning Super Bowl Champs are going to Disney World. Me? Maybe a nice drive up north and sleeping in a motel room or cabin down by a shady creek.

Oh yeah. From here I have to finally get a mask because I desire to visit the dump

[scenes]

PaulE: "So George in your view where do we go from here?"

Hell, I'll take that on.

Allow everybody to go where they want and do what they do.

One new rule: Everyone wears a mask when out of the house, even homeless people.

How do you enforce it? Some combination of tickets/fines, social pressure.

The alternative is Great Depression II and no one leaves their house because some people can't get with the program. Rural areas are forced to do what cities do. Surfers get arrested but homeless people can huddle.

No doubt the protected classes can't wear masks because of some classist or racciss reason.

I was thinking of suggesting that the Blue Mob wear special masks made from a soundproof material, but that's for later.

So what's your solution Question Man?

[fish]

Posted by: scenes | 07 May 2020 at 12:22 PM

So what's your solution Question Man?

I'll take "An Endless Litany of Questions" for $800 Alex!

[Bill Tozer]

Is this how sheeple behave?

We know everything — and nothing — about Covid

“Then we have to tackle another set of unknowns relating to a different species of creature: the human being. How people react to an easing of the lockdown is also uncertain. The British government took the paternalist view that we could not be trusted to take advice but must be ordered into lockdown. It rushed through some terrifyingly illiberal legislation. With a few exceptions, the British people appear to have become willing, even censorious, assistants in the enforcement of the rules. The problem is not now people disobeying the rules, but being terrified to give up the extreme safety of lockdown and relaxed about staying at home on taxpayer-subsidized wages. In the light of what we know, it is vital that the government now switches from urging us to stay at home to urging us to return to as much of normal life as possible.

Be in no doubt that the strangulation that is asphyxiating the economy will have to be gradually lifted long before we know the full epidemiology of the virus. Perilous though the path is, we cannot wait for the fog to lift before we start down the mountain.”

https://spectator.us/know-everything-nothing-about-covid/

[Paul Emery]

Scenes

You recomment that "One new rule: Everyone wears a mask when out of the house, even homeless people."

Does "everyone" include out President, Donald Trump?

[fish]

Posted by: scenes | 07 May 2020 at 12:22 PM

Does "everyone" include out President, Donald Trump?

......and we’re off!

[Paul Emery]

What does "everyone" mean to you fish?

[scenes]

Paul Emerybot outputs: "What does "everyone" mean to you fish?

Questions are a burden to others. Answers a prison for oneself.
P. McGoohan

[Paul Emery]

Scenes

Sorry the question is so complex for you. I'll be gentler in the future.
I really get a kick out of this as do readers that follow this blog for laughs. Sorry I'm so busy I can't give it much time.

[Don Bessee]

A big one handed clap for the comic stylings of the pony tail of ignorance! LOL

;-)

[fish]

Posted by: Paul Emery | 07 May 2020 at 05:30 PM

Sorry I'm so busy I can't give it much time.

.....shuffles off to heat up TV dinner.

[Walt]

That's how Emery beats retreat. High ponytailing it outa here.

[Paul Emery]

I mean it's pretty pathetic that the Circle of Jerks cannot even support one of their fellow jerkers (Scenes) when he states that "One new rule: Everyone wears a mask when out of the house, even homeless people."

[fish]

Posted by: Paul Emery | 07 May 2020 at 07:10 PM

Pathetic is something like this........

Scenes

Sorry the question is so complex for you. I'll be gentler in the future.
I really get a kick out of this as do readers that follow this blog for laughs. Sorry I'm so busy I can't give it much time.

[Bill Tozer]

Looks like Punchy is having another bad week. Trump now over Biden in swing states and nobody want to get too close to the high risk news director. And PE Presents has been non-essential.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7WAwuSK36Gw

[Walt]

WOW Emery!! I went to the dump sans MASK!! Right along with PLENTY others.
Cower in fear all you like.
Kung Flu don't like sunlight. So you can live like a vampire.
Have at it.

[Paul Emery]

Thanks fish for re-posting my comment. Greatly appreciate it.

[Paul Emery]

Ahead in swing states Bill? What polls are you reading?

Bill

Where did you get your numbers?

this is what I found:

The presidential race in key states according to early polls

Average margin in states where at least 3 polls were conducted in April

State Number of polls

Average
North Carolina 5 47% 46% D+1.0
Wisconsin 4 48 44 D+3.3
Florida 4 47 43 D+3.5
Pennsylvania 5 48 43 D+5.4
Michigan 8 49 43 D+6.1
U.S. 50 48 42

[Paul Emery]

Here is the linkwith details

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/weve-got-some-early-trump-vs-biden-swing-state-polling/

[Walt]

🤣🙄 Another never heard of website.
Dig deep in the proggy septic tank Emery.
Yup,, cast your vote for the real pssy grabber.(with dementia)

[Paul Emery]

huh Walt? You've never heard of Nate Silver?

[Don Bessee]

An example of the herd panic nature of having 2 sightings of the thing then we see the bees can kill it and other bugs gobble it. I bet birds feast on it too. The murder bug indeed!

https://www.foxnews.com/science/praying-mantis-eats-murder-hornet-frightening-video

;-)

[Bill Tozer]

Punchy. Are you wearing your mask right now? Take it off and put a brown paper bag over your head. Have somebody draw in the eyes and lips and fun it up. Thank you. Much better. Moving forward.

Here is where I got my numbers. Pssst. (Whisper) It’s from my bookie down the street. Biker stuff. Mums the word. May 7th.

New Poll Finds Trump Leading Biden In Six Swing States

https://www.dailywire.com/news/new-poll-finds-trump-leading-biden-in-six-swing-states

[Don Bessee]

Does that count as elder abuse @914! LOL

;-)

[Paul Emery]

Here's one for you bill. You only cited one poll. Here's RCP's listing of all the latest polls showing Biden ahead in all polls with one tie. Sorry to give you the bad news

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/National.html

[Bill Tozer]

Where the hay is my Death Bump here in them thar hills?

Victor Davis Hanson: The ‘Credentialed Class’ Keeps Getting It Wrong On COVID-19

I think people realize something that their officials don’t. I’m speaking from California where next week we are supposed to have 25 million cases and 1 million dead; we have only 50,000 cases and 2,200 dead; it’s off by a huge magnitude,” Hanson began. “One size does not fit all. Even the monstrosities of the bureaucracies in Europe, the EU, doesn’t try to say that Germany’s policy will apply to Spain or Italy’s policies will apply to Germany. It doesn’t work that way. And we are a very diverse country.”

“Just three states: Massachusetts, New York, and New Jersey account for about 55% of all the deaths and, yet, they only have about 11% of the population,” he continued. “But California and Texas and Florida, they have about 30% of all the people in the United States and they’ve had about 5,500 deaths, so they are just radically different situations. This one-size-fits-all doesn’t work.”

“We need to focus on those three states and ask ourselves why 11 or 12% of the population has suffered 55% of the fatalities,” he said. “Is it the weather? Is it population density? Is it elevators and subways? The credentialed class has been wrong on almost everything and the people have lost confidence because they don’t address these basic practical questions that people want answered for.”

https://www.dailywire.com/news/victor-davis-hanson-the-credentialed-class-keeps-getting-it-wrong-on-covid-19

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KA-u8bQOGnM

[Walt]

Take your Geritol Emery.
https://www.foxnews.com/science/vitamin-d-levels-covid-19-mortality-rates
You too Crabbman.

Polls... Ya.. YOU bet... The same ones that said Trump would never win the first time. Hillary was a good as President.

[Bill Tozer]

Ain’t bad news at all, Paul. I rather enjoy the underdog role. To tell you the truth, I never read any of the links you or I posted. It’s the trend line I care about. And at this point in time, Hillary, with the lowest Democrat candidate’s unfavorables in the history of the Democrat Party, is above Biden’s unfavorables. Wow. Boggles the mind. I thought Hillary would keep her record as the worse intact for another century.

But, my my. We have traveled so far from home, pilgrim. Meaningless discussions about your stellar track record of putting your ass on the line for polling is for the Sandbox.

Here we are discussing everybody getting on the dance floor and doing the Death Bump. Now, put your hands together, get on out there, do some high steppin and do the Death Bump.

[Gregory]

Scenes 503pm

That only looks right in Uncial font, The Village style
https://cdn11.bigcommerce.com/s-nq6l4syi/images/stencil/1280x1280/products/44298/45290/104411-1024__50409.1528009236.jpg?c=2?imbypass=on

Be seeing you.

[scenes]

After yet another one of Paul's 'questions'. Intended to be a jab, comes off as trivial:

"Sorry the question is so complex for you. I'll be gentler in the future."

Not at all, whether public figures should wear a mask in a world of masks is a side issue.

In a reasonable world, I make a blanket statement 'EVERYONE WEARS MASKS'. In a real conversation, the reasonble person, asks 'WHAT ABOUT THIS CASE', and the law grows. It's like any public policy. I have yet to see a politician, minus a few instances where they are making some point or visiting a hospital (and are smart enough to wear it over their nose), wear the things in a public venue. Not just Trump, but you can bet that governors and congressmen are tested quite a lot and access is vetted. You end up with rings of trust.

Just to aim that at anyone who actually isn't as big a jackass as Paul, in mask world, when are masks not worn? At least while not inventing some sort of 500 page sprig of legislation. Simply using common sense is probably not enough as that has always been in short supply. Perhaps it has to be anough to view them as a purely defensive move and simply up to the person who doesn't wish to be a catcher rather than a pitcher. What should policy be in jails? You can't simply close them down although Nevada County seems to excel in a catch and release policy on frequent flyers. The case of store clerks and bartenders appears to be it's own case as is crowded business settings.

The homeless, especially the crazy variety, are once again treated like cows in India as holy roving nuisances.

In the long run the mass of people and politicians will stumble from one thing to another like lemmings, convinced of their rightness but motivated by mass mood. The Blue Mob will keep on mobbin', nonprofit and gubmint grifters will keep on griftin', the handful of useful people will get tired. Maybe 'Atlas Shrugged' was really about grocery store checkers, nurses, and meat cutters.

[scenes]

billt quoting VDH: "“We need to focus on those three states and ask ourselves why 11 or 12% of the population has suffered 55% of the fatalities,” he said. “Is it the weather? Is it population density? Is it elevators and subways? "

CCP-19 has been a great exercise in watching people see patterns in clouds. From all I can tell, the only predictive power brought by epidemiologists has been fitting cases or deaths to a curve that has been known since the time of cholera. No math needed, simply scatter data at previously observed epidemics's curves and, voila', instant pundit. Bad guess? Must be bad data.

Other theories abound. Multi-generation households in Italy? Some folks claim extra-special strains on the Right Coast. Subways have been blamed. The race business claims that the virus is raciss. The Depilated News Midget of Spring Street claims Trump is at fault. Zero Hedge will ferret out Phase II of the Chinese lab experiments yet to come.

Probably what we need to do is find some way to make money at correct guessing, skin in the game. Turn those Russian quants on Wall Street loose on a whole batch of serious big data concerning all aspects of this, maybe a few hundred racks of CPU could twizzle out some real relationships between life and virus.

[Bill Tozer]

Posted by: scenes | 08 May 2020 at 06:53 AM:

“Probably what we need to do is find some way to make money at correct guessing, skin in the game. Turn those Russian quants on Wall Street loose on a whole batch of serious big data concerning all aspects of this, maybe a few hundred racks of CPU could twizzle out some real relationships between life and virus.”

Sorry Charlie, the Chinese Communist Party beat us (and the Russians) to it.
I still don’t got no mask! You would think any convience store would sell bandanas. They sell ball caps.and cheap gloves, but nooooo. And Jo Ann’s sewing circle gave theirs away! So, I bought a new clean cheap tee shirt at the Dollar General. Will work in a pinch. Better than throwing a pair of hand washed sun dried underwear over my mug. But, that is for Dear Diary.