Election2020 – Electoral College Predictor

George Rebane

Something is possible when it can happen with non-zero probability; something is probable when the chance of its happening will impact a decision.

One of our commenters pointed me to 270towin.com, a website that presents a map-based tool to predict the Electoral College (EC) votes which will determine our next president.  They show how the states are going to vote given various pundit assessments and polling results.  The site also lets you assign to each state whether and to what degree it will vote Republican or Democrat.  The degrees shown for each party are – Safe, Likely, Leans, Tilt, and Toss-up.  You can also add ‘Tilt’ to the spectrum.  Assigning such degrees to each state allows the site’s visitor to come up with his own prognostication.

The problem with 270towin is that its algorithm to compute the total EC votes for each candidate is not revealed.  To overcome this shortcoming and make the EC predictor more useful and transparent, I constructed a rigorous one in the spreadsheet form shown below (click on image to enlarge).

This has the trending categories shown along with their 1 thru 9 trend numbers that identify each one uniquely.  As per convention, the blue numbers are to be input by the user, the black numbers are calculated by formulas (keep you mitts off of them).  All the 538 EC votes are shown for the states and DC.  Inputting your own trend numbers will recalculate the expected number of EC votes each side will get along with their underlying probability distribution.  This permits some math to be applied to compute the actual probabilities of each side winning the EC vote – i.e. getting more than the needed 270 required to win.

And here’s the good part.  In my model, the win probabilities that quantify each trend category are shown and can be changed by the user.  Mine are 0.51, 0.55, … shown in blue under the Republican side and replicated in black on the Democrat side.  If you don’t like my picks for each of the indicated trending categories, then substitute your own, and fill in the trend numbers for all the states and DC.

The model outputs are shown in the yellow block, and consist of the expected number of Dem and Repub votes along with the probabilities that the Dems and Repubs get at least the needed 270 votes to win.  The trend numbers shown were the current ‘consensus’ assignments from 270towin, and with my assigned probabilities, a Democrat win is practically a certainty.  I will put in my own trend numbers as time goes by, and so can you.  You can download the spreadsheet here – Download ElectCollege2020

I will publish your assessments if you send me an image of the relevant cells as shown above – put your own name and date YYMMDD in the cell under the copyright notice.  Have fun.

And despite today's bad EC numbers, here is a little Lucky Strike Extra for all of you without TDS.

Comments

[Todd Juvinall]

Notice how that Stony Brook Professor has been ignored by Paul Emery and the rest of the media (except FOX)? 91% likely Trump wins. And his algorithms were right 26 of 28 times.

[George Rebane]

ToddJ 642pm - Link please.

[scenes]

[email protected]:00PM July 25, Year Zero.

I expect that ToddJ picked that up in a news article. Example:
https://welovetrump.com/2020/07/10/election-model-predicts-91-chance-for-trump-victory-in-november/

Here's the pollster's site:

http://primarymodel.com/

Honestly I'm surprised that polls are used anymore. You'd think there'd be more talk about big data approaches that look at social media traffic, purchases, contact tracing and general cell phone surveillance, etc. that boils it all through some sort of mysterious Election AI.

It would be interesting to really know what goes on internally in the campaigns. It's probably just Some Guy who has a serious gut feeling for matters.

[Todd Juvinall]

Here is one
https://www.foxnews.com/politics/professor-doubles-down-on-prediction-model-showing-trump-having-91-percent-chance-of-winning-election-despite-polls

[Bill Tozer]

“George
Well the Libertarian Party but Gary Johnson does not have it this time around. The Repubs dumped Rand Paul early on because of his foreign policy which I support.

Trump actually speaks the language but is so terribly flawed as a candidate and has no institutional support from the Repub honchos who were just waiting for him to fall so they could reestablish the Pubber-Dempcrap alliance and ram through the TPP as soon as it's convenient. Probably in about a year after Hillary wins. She's the champion of the establishment.

Anyway the Repubs picked Trump and now have to live with him. No way he's pulling out and now he's turning on the Party . He never was a Republican anyway so he has no obligation to them. His last card will be to encourage a boycott of down ticket Repubs by his supporters which have more allegiance to him than the Repub Party.

Hillary will be dancing from here to Nov. It's too late for an Oct Surprise because it's a done deal at this point.

You didn't seem to embrace my prediction that the "powers that be" would never allow Trump to be elected and well George that's what happened.

the Republicans have no one but themselves to blame for Hillary being elected. Any average Repub would win easily.”

Posted by: Paul Emery | 11 October 2016 at 08:42 AM
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Just an update:

Both RCP and Nate Silver have the odds Hillary 86-Trump 14
That's near historic highs for Hillary, just below her peak (89) after the convention

Whatever Trump is doing hasn't worked.

Posted by: Paul Emery | 12 October 2016 at 02:34 PM
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Bill

I respect the passion you heve for your guy who wants to chance it all. I just don't think there is a snowballs chance in hell that he will be allowed to upset the apple cart. The Republican establishment has turned against him as well because they woule rather deal with Clinton who knows the rules of the road. TPP is the big one that will pass under Clinton after some cosmetics. Remember how that was embraced by the Mainstream repubs (Ryan, McConnell etc as well as Obama) So you think for a minute this mega-trillion international deal would be DE-railed by a populist independent like Trump?

Posted by: Paul Emery | 12 October 2016 at 03:45 PM
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Either way the harsh reality for Trump is that he has to win Florida, N Carolina and Nevada plus, and this is the big one one state that is solidly in the Clinton camp such as Colorado, Michigan or Penn. New Hampshire wouldn't make it because it has too few electoral votes.

this is the only action worth looking at.

Posted by: Paul Emery | 01 November 2016 at 10:41 AM
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Looks like Todds favorite pollster Dean "unskewed" Chambers is predicting Hillary, What a hoot.

"Dean Chambers, who made a name for himself “unskewing” the polls in 2012 to give Republican presidential candidate Mitt Romney more favorable results, has come to view political polling with a bit less suspicion and believes that Hillary Clinton is the favorite to win the White House.

“I would look at the RealClearPolitics no tossups map, they’re saying 273 [electoral votes] for Hillary,” Chambers, who founded the now defunct UnSkewPolls.com, told The Huffington Post in an interview. “My best guess is that’s probably pretty close.” In that scenario, predicted by RealClearPolitics’ polling aggregator, Clinton ekes out a narrow win by carrying Colorado, Wisconsin, Michigan, Virginia and New Hampshire.

“I think we can all agree that the polls are getting much closer and if that trend continues it could be very close on Election Day,” Chambers said, though added that Clinton’s advantage over Republican nominee Donald Trump in early voting will likely provide her an edge.

“I hear some Trump supporters saying that Trump is going to get a much higher result than polls are suggesting,” Chambers continued, “but I don’t have any basis to agree with that. If you’re trying to construct a scenario where Trump wins, you need five more electoral votes. Virginia, Colorado and New Hampshire seems likely to go to Hillary"

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/dean-chambers-unskewed-polls-hillary-clinton-win_us_581a3cf1e4b01a82df64601d

Posted by: Paul Emery | 02 November 2016 at 01:43 PM
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I agree Bill Trump and the Trumpettes are in this for the duration.

After the election with Hillary easily winning and the Dems likely taking the Senate the parting out of thje Republican party will begin. Trump will hold court over his loyalists and split the party and become a Folk Hero of the right much like Tim Robbins in the 1994 film Bob Roberts about the Conservative folksinger who ran for Senate of Pennyslvania .

Posted by: Paul Emery | 20 October 2016 at 04:46 PM
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[Two weeks until the election]

George

It's my personal prediction of what will likely happen in the near future. I'll repeat my soothsaying screed.

After the election with Hillary easily winning and the Dems likely taking the Senate the parting out of thje Republican party will begin. Trump will hold court over his loyalists and split the party and become a Folk Hero of the right much like Tim Robbins in the 1994 film Bob Roberts about the Conservative folksinger who ran for Senate of Pennyslvania .

That's how I see it.

Posted by: Paul Emery | 20 October 2016 at 06:24 PM
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And finally (for now):

Here's the grim reality for the Trumpsters according to RCP.
Hillary has 256 solid delegates
Trump has 170
There are 112 toss-ups available
Hillary has only to win 15 to be over the 270 top
Trump has to win 101 0f the toss up delegates.

nuff said on that matter.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/2016_elections_electoral_college_map.html

Posted by: Paul Emery | 18 October 2016 at 01:27 PM (less than 3 weeks out)

-There are 112 toss-ups available
-Hillary has only to win 15 to be over the 270 top
-Trump has to win 101 0f the toss up delegates. Hmmmm.
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rolmao
“If you're so confident Gregory how about a little wager 1-4. Odds. Brew of your choice”

Posted by: Paul Emery | 18 October 2016 at 10:10 PM

[Gregory]

toes 1049am

Thanks for the reprise of Punchy's greatest hits of 2016.

For 2020, we're coming down to the wire and Punch is as superficially convinced as ever that it's in the bag. But that Rasmussen poll he was crowing about three weeks ago (the White House Watch) that had Biden 50 Trump 40, two weeks later was at 47-44. Then 47-45, five days ago.

Next poll release will be Wednesday.

[Paul Emery]

Bill

I'm so flattered you take the time to dig out ancient posts of mine. Thank you very much. Nice to know my efforts are appreciated

[Paul Emery]

By the way the "parting out of the Republican Party" has become a reality according to our host. Check out the latest from GR

"The Dilemma of a Disillusioned and Disaffected Republican"