Wildfire Diary – 18aug20 (updated 20aug20)

George Rebane

1. PG&E turned off power on Hind Tit Road and told us it was part of the 1-2 hour rolling blackouts all across the state. Our blackout has now been rolling along for 17 hours.  Moreover, it was beyond cynical that they decided to turn off power to neighborhoods hurriedly preparing to evacuate from the Jones Bar Fire.  Our power does not come through the fire area, it comes from the other direction.  As I mentioned before, there is no power shortage, the outages we are suffering are politically mandated by the state’s Democrat super-majority who have taken offline natural gas and nuclear power generators.
2. Government incompetence and incapability has been on parade again during this fire. All information outlets, loudly proclaimed and lauded during calmer times, outlets that we’re supposed to access when the fire emergency comes, all of them were dysfunctional.  This in the sense that websites were down, phones weren’t answered, and media outlets not informed, most certainly not in any useful timely manner, of the state and extent of the fire.  County and Cal-fire failed utterly, informing us for hours of a 30 acre fire that was already over 300 acres, and no idea of its progress toward populated areas.  They couldn’t even “confirm” whether a home had burned.  Apparently in an environment of low winds and high humidity, the firefighters are doing a better job in the field than their colleagues sitting in command centers and emergency management offices.  No doubt through no fault of their own, Yubanet and KNCO have been particularly worthless as sources of useful and timely fire information.  And the nation’s useful idiots want government to nationalize our healthcare system??!
3. Memo to county emergency management: have someone in the incident command center, that always has an updated map of the current burn area, draw the fire contours on the map in their pad, timestamp it, and then send it to the webmaster who can post on the advertised fire information sites.  Do this at least hourly.
4. Yesterday afternoon we got multiple notifications, all concurrent and inconsistent, of “evacuation warnings”, “evacuation advisories”, and “evacuation orders”. You could take your pick by just choosing which outlet (website, radio), robocall, or text message you wanted.  After the power had been off for two hours, we had the Jeep and truck packed with some important irreplacables and more immediate necessaries, and evacuated to our daughter’s house in Alta Sierra.  It was a redo of a similar evacuation we did to her house in 1993 (more here).  We all had a laugh about it when we arrived – we now owe her two evacuations to our house. 
5. This morning I caught up on the Democrat doings. They’re still singing lyrics from their tried and true TDS Anthem.  Nothing about policy specifics for their promised Socialist America – the leftwing constituent demands very little information from his politicians, as long as he hears promises of OPM coming his way.  In this regard Bumblebrain Biden is his man.  Biden has called for “an end to the era of shareholder capitalism.”  According to him, it’s “untrue and a farce” that "a company’s primary responsibility is to generate returns for shareholders."  (more here)  As I have pointed out countless times, the progressive has no idea how a functioning economy works.  EVERYWHERE in the world where they have gotten their hands on an economy, it either flushes immediately or immediately starts circling the drain hole. 
6. Then there’s carefully cultured Kamelion Kamala who “when she changes her stands it tends to be politically convenient, slowly acknowledged and poorly explained. There are signals of seeing policy as an external thing, not an outgrowth of one’s own belief structure, and things can change.” She was born into a very liberal, upper-class, educated family, and enjoyed all the privileges that our land could offer.  She is a political powerhouse with few public service accomplishments save some very critical ones about which, perhaps, only Willie Brown knows the particulars. (more here) 
7. Last night we gathered all the potpourri of fire information we could, mixed it with our own considerable experience about such things, and decided to spend the night in our own bed. We arrived in the dark, fired up the generator, and had a restful night listening to the fan we set up in the bedroom.  This morning we got up, checked the web for updates (no joy), listened to KNCO (no joy), and had breakfast.  The neighborhood up here on the ridge is very quiet; every once in a while we can hear an airplane in the distance.  No S-2 bombers in sight, but we’re told that Calfire is getting good use out of 800-gallon, single-engine, converted crop dusters since they can maneuver better in the South Yuba River canyon.  So, we’re still all packed up, with our bags staged by the door, ready to high-tail it out of here once there is some visible evidence to recommend that.  Otherwise, we just check on the fire info outlets that contain little besides yesterday’s newspaper.  At 930am PG&E's bullshit rolling blackout, it don't say nothin' but jes keeps rollin' along.
8. [1313 hrs]  NC Emergency Service Fire Dashboard is over 13 hours old.  I just drove the peripheral roads of the fire and talked to stationed police and firefighting personnel.  No one in the field knows what's happening, the extent of the fire, or even where the incident command center is located.  The closest was a congenial CHP on 49 who opined that it was located in the Helling Library.  Turns out its in the Rood Center as expected.  When you try to call Emergency Service, you get blown off.  The government beat goes on; no one knows and everyone is quite sanguine about the fire.  And PG&E tells me that the dolts working for them are still trying to figure out the "cause" of my "outage".  Apparently the idiots can't determine if it's still their announced "rolling blackouts" or God knows what - power has now been out 22 hours.  And their Lucky Strike extra is that they have no information as to when they might get additional information about my outage.

[20aug20 update]  Last night Jo Ann and I got texted that it was safe to return home, our part of Cement Hill Rd had its evacuation order lifted.  We were hunkered down at our daughter’s house in Alta Sierra, she had been the perfect hostess during our stay and made the sojourn actually fun (save for trying to find out what the Jones fire was doing).  We made numerous trips into town to get more groceries and pick-up some necessaries that we left behind.  During these forays we always stopped in Morgan Ranch at a spot that overlooks our entire ridge to the north, and also provides a view of the fire’s smoke coming up from behind a closer ridge to the northwest from our observation point.

Previously the online reports and streaming ‘town halls’ gave every indication that the firefighters had the fire’s perimeter pretty well in hand, and that the fire was not going to jump Hwy49.  The weather cooperated, temperatures and humidity behaved themselves, and no winds to speak of as witnessed by the ground-hugging smoke spreading far and wide over most of western county.  Good news for us old, experienced firewatchers.  The fire fighters, both on the ground and in the air, did a great job keeping the fire in an approximately one square mile rectangle.  Had the weather not cooperated, we’d be singing a very different song today.

So, instead of going to bed in the guest bedroom, we piled a few needed things for the night into the Jeep and headed home to sleep in our own bed.  I also didn’t want to give low-life looters too much time to get any ideas.  This was the advice given by the deputy sheriff who escorted us back to the house during the day to pick up some needed heart medicine for our puppy.  Back in the old days, we would be permitted back into the fire zone by the officer manning the checkpoint who vetted your identity and the cut of your jib.  No longer.  Today the checkpoint officers have no leeway to let people in; instead people must be escorted by a deputy one resident at a time.  We were told that the lawyers took that prerogative away about two years ago.  Apparently some unescorted residents allowed in during a fire somewhere in California took the opportunity to actually loot and vandalize houses of their neighbors.  Culture, culture, culture.

My after-action conversation with our Office of Emergency Services focused on primarily giving residents timely map-based information on the progress of the fire, and timestamping EVERY online posting – my favorite format is YYMMDDHHMM, easy to enter, read, and sort.  Putting ‘19min ago’ and leaving it there for a day does not cut it.  Now that we have pads and electronic pencils, it’s very easy for someone at the incident command center to draw updated fire contours onto a map and email it to the various county/Calfire webmasters and media outlets.  This kind of update should be provided hourly and/or when a major breakout occurs.  Also, every website should have a page that explains what ‘xx% contained’ means, also what does ‘controlled’ mean, and finally when is a fire designated as being ‘out’ – few know these definitions, even from the ranks of LE officers and firefighters in the field.  (more here)

The most egregious aspect of getting current fire information is that it is totally inconsistent and time late, depending on which agency or media outlet you consult.  There appears to be no central clearinghouse for fire information; the various firefighting units, LE commands, and emergency services agencies all communicate like a gaggle of geese, each including what they think is valid info from what the others are responsible for.  This is not a hard problem to solve, but it does require a solid corps of 3-digit type planners to set it up, and equivalently endowed personnel to operate it during a fire (or any other kind of) emergency.

So now home again, we’re putting things back where they belong and doing some after-action review of our emergency plans.  We’ve done this for decades.  Our noodling revolves around a critique of what didn’t work, and checklists.  We are big believers and users of checklists, and have them for almost every kind of repetitive or important things we do or anticipate.  For evacuations our checklist is divided into items by category, priority, and load plan (what goes into which vehicle/trailer).  Also that checklist includes a do-list on how to leave the house – e.g. water, power, and fuels status, windows, doors, gates, lights, …, who to notify about destinations, timing, rendezvouses, … .  Most people have developed trip (e.g. vacation) checklists that include many of these items.  That’s a good place from which to start making your emergency evacuation checklist.

A very important thing to consider adding to the list are items that provide continuity to your past, items that are important reminders and artifacts of who you are, with whom you related, and what you were.  In short, don’t cut off your past.  I learned that from my parents during the war and post-war years in Europe when we had to ‘move’ at a moment’s notice.  People who opted to take expensive but replaceable stuff instead of inexpensive, irreplaceable, memory-laden stuff wound up being very sorry, feeling desolate and unanchored.

And finally, something easier said than done – maintain a clear head, situational awareness, and a constant sense of the priorities for which only you are responsible.  In the heat of battle, avoid letting piss-poor prior planning on someone else’s part become an emergency on your part.  And stay informed.  Here is an important one-pager full of fire-relevant information by Ms Susan Rogers - Download Early Warning Alerts-Weather & How to Stay Informed 19Aug2020

 

Comments

[Barry Pruett]

We are glad that you are both in safe hands. The rolling blackouts during a forest fire is a particularly stupid move. We have a few folks at our house as well, so I went to work today. Lol. Be safe Rebanes.

[Scott O]

First of all - thanks for the fire news update. Good to hear you're both safe. We have friends in the evac zone including an older house-bound person with COPD.

About that Biden quote "an end to the era of shareholder capitalism".
Snopes has marked that as 'mostly false' even though it's entirely true.
Biden (and the left) basically want to control corporations without bothering to having any skin in the game. Biden wants these evil corps to have 'responsibility' to workers, the community and the nation.
And here I thought the wages they paid the workers were their responsibility. Silly me. The community? Property taxes and a source of employment would seem to be good enough to me. And the feds get their taxes, so just what is it, exactly that Biden has in mind?
Other than driving corporate America out of business, I mean. As George pointed out - those are just minor details Biden won't bother us with. And since Snopes says it's mostly false - then no worries.

[The Estonian Fox]

George, I read your 2007 fire experience. That forced me to do my annual reading of the report of the Oakland Hills fire in 1991. Officially it was titled the East Bay Hills fire. There were also power outages there, which prevented the numerous water towers from being refilled automatically. But those outages were due to the fire, not man-planned outages like you have.

Page 28 of that report is as 'exciting' as your own on-the-ground reporting:

"The firefighters operated master streams and hoselines on the exterior of the house to keep the wood siding from igniting, flowing an estimated 2,500 gpm, as the fire swept over and around them. Fog nozzles had to be used to protect the members operating the larger handlines that were directed to wet the structure. For an estimated five to eight minutes the fire storm raged around them, burning one of the adjacent houses to the ground, but the exposure protection tactic worked and 20 people survived."

2500 gpm would drain my pool in 11 minutes - but that's enough time, since a nearby fuel source (neighbor's house) would burn down in only 8. Too bad I don't have a 40-hp pump to give me that flow.

Stay safe.

[Gregory]

I see Cement Hill area is now under mandatory evacuation orders...

Our evac came yesterday 5pm-ish. So far so good by the fire boundaries published. So far.

[George Rebane]

Greg 343pm - yep, we’re outta there. About 100 patrol cars came screaming up CHR to warn people of the extended evac area.

[Barry Pruett]

It’ll be okay George and Jo Ann. It is a horrible feeling leaving your house thinking that you may never see it again, but it will all be good.

[Gregory]

Yippie tie one on.
Can go home.

Thanks to the firefighters.

[Don Bessee]

GOD BLESS OUR FIRST RESPONDERS!

;-)

[Bill Tozer]

Sorry fellow Nevada County residents, you just ain’t that important. 600-700 hundred acres burned don’t make the grade. We just are not THAT important, all in all.

‘Mandatory Evacuations Underway As Firefighters Battle Multiple Fires In Northern Calif.’

“Authorities have issued evacuation orders in several counties, including Alameda, Santa Clara, Santa Cruz, Napa and Sonoma. As the flames continue to burn, fire departments are being spread thin.”.....

Additionally, fire officials have warned that face masks worn to prevent the spread of COVID-19 will not help to protect them from the smoke.”

https://www.oann.com/?p=2215420

[Bill Tozer]

So Dr. Rebane, is your daughter now being evicted in AS and coming to Hind Tit Road for safety? :)

[George Rebane]

Not really Mr Tozer, she actually lives in a hotbed of politically incorrect thinkers.

[Bill Tozer]

@ 9:33 pm

Opps. Typo. Evacuated (evac), Not evicted. Heard earlier AS was getting ready to e-vac, but it doesn’t look like it’s meant to be. But, imagine if you will, the odds of you fleeing to your daughter’s abode and then upon returning she got the evac order and fled to your home the next day. Would ‘t that be a great family story. Like, alternating Evans, your place or mine.

Glad you are back in your own bed and today I hung up huge loads the laundry to dry on the clothesline, thinking of your lovely bride. The clothes did come out fresher and cleaner and softer even with all the smoke outside. Your bride rocks, albeit maybe not so much with the shattered elbow right now.