A reader’s hopeful election assessment

George Rebane

Under the ‘Estonian Fox’ moniker, one of our east coast readers has been a regular on these comment streams.  He emailed me his filled out electoral college predictions in the spreadsheet format that I developed and made available here.  The first figure below shows his vote assignment per state at the various probability levels.  His bottom line is that Trump’s expected electoral votes are 278 (270 required to win), and Biden’s expected is 260.  This squeaker projects a 0.52 probability that Trump wins.  In the second figure EFox assigned ones and zeros to the candidates who had the higher probability of taking each state from his first assessment.  This kind of ‘all or nothing’ figuring give Trump 325 votes and Biden 213 – a clear Republican glory road.  Well, from his mouth to God’s ear is all we can hope for.

Comments

[scenes]

Political poster du jour.

https://twitter.com/gamu0514/status/1323587812248051715

[Bill Tozer]

Early results coming in. Looks like Biden will win China.

[Walt]

Sac. is boarding up. Is Bobby going down for the looting?

[Bill Tozer]

Yesterday’s tweet today. H/T to Fish’s morning 7:22 am link in the Sandbox.

Scott Adams
@ScottAdamsSays
Tomorrow begins the most ambitious disinformation/brainwashing campaign you are likely to see in your lifetime. And it will work on at least half the public.

[scenes]

"If news organizations declare Joe Biden the mathematical president-elect, he plans to address the nation as its new leader, even if President Trump continues to fight in court, advisers tell Axios."

https://www.axios.com/biden-transition-plan-election-day-65caa1f6-886e-42cd-b205-5ee8f89941f2.html

[Steven Frisch]

Last chance for the redemption of your twisted souls gentlemen...https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jjyhDMNB400

[D]

Twisted souls is right!

[fish]

Posted by: D | 03 November 2020 at 08:20 AM

Twisted souls is right!

I'll take twisted over urine soaked (D)ugsKKKi.

[Walt]

At least we actually have souls.. Unlike given Leftist party members. You fools sold yours a long time ago.

[Walt]

Speaking of "twisted soul"
https://www.foxnews.com/us/anarchist-florida-woman-arrested-destroying-trump-signs-snapped

Doesn't take much to nut up a LIB.

[Walt]

"Rules? we don't need to follow no stink'n rules!!"
https://www.breitbart.com/politics/2020/11/03/the-steal-is-on-in-pennsylvania-poll-watchers-denied-access-illegal-campaigning-at-polling-locations/

[Gregory]

The undead Frisch is here to stir up trouble.

[Walt]

He must have found a blue dot in front of his TROLL den.
https://www.newsweek.com/california-blue-dots-joe-biden-roseville-1544292

Just a blue dot is enough to scare the piss out of a LIB?

Yet LIBS didn't take issue when Repub people's property was damaged, cars keyed, and scratched and windows broken out, signs destroyed and set on fire.

But a blue dot makes the news?

[scenes]

I expect that the 'Lincoln Project' will need to change some heraldry now that the US national symbol is a sheet of plywood.

In any case, the gaslighting continues apace.

Lincoln: Relatively unpopular candidate narrowly achieves office. Southern newspapers call for insurrection because they hate new President. Hilarity ensues.

Lincoln Project: 'Hey, I know. Let's help run an insurrection and name ourselves after some President or the other. It'll be fun!'. Hilarity ensues.

One thing you have to hand to Blue Mob America, it's a stylish place.

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/El1zsFUXEAIQVhy?format=jpg&name=small

[fish]

Posted by: scenes | 03 November 2020 at 08:53 AM

Hey….look at all the inner cities that Blue Mob™ politicians run….the decor is familiar!

[fish]

In case anybody missed Joey Fingers last campaign speech here's the transcript.

“margarite1 says:

November 3, 2020 at 2:30 am

If you missed the Biden event today, here’s a copy of the speech:

Mnbshgvgaj kdewddfhgjiik kljnippoooih dsfqweah jghftttyub lkphjjgds!”

[scenes]

A genuine question.

https://www.cbs46.com/people-who-have-covid-19-or-who-have-been-exposed-can-vote-in-person-cdc/article_32f1de1b-f6fc-5044-8cde-5469a836f398.html

If you have an active case of COVID-19, according to the CDC, it's OK to vote in person if:

" Wearing a mask
Staying at least 6 feet away from others
Washing hands or using hand sanitizer before and after voting"

If that's the case, why are there ever general shutdowns in any country? I see that the UK is planning on a month of staying at home. Germany is going for two weeks.

My guess is that Donald Trump has made a visit to those countries resulting in a surge of people dying .or. some combination of dont-know-exactly-what-to-do & nothing-really-works. It all makes a helluva campaign whopper though.

In the meantime, Biden speaks.

https://twitter.com/stillgray/status/1323381078749425664

[scenes]

Genuine question #2.

What do the mandatory sign-language people do when Dementia Joe gives a speech? Do the cameras cut away to keep the fairy tale of a competent man going? I need to find a clip.

[scenes]

re: sign language.

oh my...

"DAY IN THE LIFE OF JOE BIDEN SIGN LANGUAGE INTERPRETER"
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=u21E2YbdWmw

"Joe Biden Loses the Sign Language Interpreter in Speech"
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=g4rwshJtNLs

https://www.reddit.com/r/WatchPeopleDieInside/comments/hiyki5/face_of_joe_bidens_sign_language_lady_says_it_all/

[Walt]

LIBs " Give us DAYS to count the votes, and we can come up with enough to win."
So they admit to cheating.

[D]

The Estonian Rodent might want to jump a ship bound for the Baltic Sea.

Trump is at 214.

You have heard about the Biden Rule,

Welcome to the Scott Rule. Thanks Republicans!

https://www.jsonline.com/story/news/politics/2017/11/30/gov-scott-walkwisconsin-tightens-recount-rules-after-jill-stein-forced-retally-2016-presidential-vot/911484001/