Election 2020 Scattershots (updated 4nov20)

George Rebane

All nations that have yielded to a political monopoly have descended into autocracy on the road to tyranny.

[3nov20]  Starting today – Election Day – we are going to witness an historic ramping up of fake news, Big Lies, and propaganda from the Left’s lamestream media channels.  This will be the likes of something we have never seen, exceeding or at least rivalling the 19^th century ante-bellum press reports and political commentaries.  Finding reliable news sources to monitor the progress of the election and public square responses in the coming days will be difficult.  Readers are invited to share links to outlets they consider reliable.  And our leftwing readers are encouraged to present evidence about conservative outlets that are participating in this national charade.

Reader Barry Pruett sent this photo of Reno voters waiting in a long line to vote.

[4nov20 update]  Fox News election reporting is a puzzle.  Their projections continue to change without providing any evidence as to why.  I’ve been a longtime critic of their claim to be “Fair, balanced, and unafraid.”  As even some national conservative commentators (e.g. Rush Limbaugh) are starting to point out, FN has added a new reason to be afraid – the ire of the Murdochs, their ‘Never Trump’ owners.  ‘Fair’ and ‘balanced’ are unachievable, and FN has always been a bit skittish in straying too far to the right of the lamestream.  The choice of verbiage for their news copy is a dead giveaway.  It’s a sad state of affairs when the best available outlet is also visibly tainted.

The Economist is clueless when it comes to interpretations of Americana and what’s going on in the United States, and its reportage regularly reflects that.  But that ‘newspaper’ has something going for it that makes it a rare remaining class act in journalism.  It is a privately owned enterprise and makes no pretense of being fair and balanced.  It has a definite list to port of which it is proud, and you can see it reflected in almost every news article it publishes where it marbles its editorial ideology with its interpretation of the reported happenings; and that goes double for its opinionated commentators.  Now that is what I call unafraid journalism.  Take a look at the front cover of its most recent print edition – no puzzle there as to their position on our politics.

Pass the barf bag.  I’ve had it to the gills with all these heavy duty journalists and experts on TV finding new and not so ingenious ways of saying, ‘I don’t know, beats the hell out of me’ when asked a question about who may win this or how that state will go.  They’re paid big bucks to lay their balls on the line and make some kind of firm prognostication from all the data they’ve seen, the elections they’ve covered, and time they’re now spending puzzling on probable outcomes.  I can say ‘I don’t know all by my lonesome.’  The only reason I tune in to those chowder heads is to glean some insight that my little pea brain has missed.  Instead, we get these tautologies, ‘Well, if it keeps going like this, then X will happen, and if it turns around and goes the other way, then Y will happen (or worse, simply ‘X will not happen’)’.  Well no shit Hoppy!  What a load of crap they feed us between 5-minute commercial breaks.

 

Comments

[Jeff Pelline]

The stock market is way up! I wonder why. ROFLOL.

[Walt]

Reloading supply purchases are through the roof.
Gun sales, never better. Biden is as good a gun salesman as "O".
And shop owners are done with the police not doing their job and letting the LIB vermin run wild in the streets.

[Jeff Pelline]

Walt,
"The new buyers include growing numbers of women, senior citizens and Black Americans, according to anecdotal observations from firearms dealers."
https://www.forbes.com/sites/aaronsmith/2020/11/03/gun-sales-surge-ahead-of-election-day-according-to-fbi-background-checks/?sh=135df8373dd9

[Gregory]

So has everyone voted in ... The Union poll?

Biden so far has fallen short of 50%. Imagine that.

[fish]

From teh intertoobz…..

Don't be overconfident. It's only noon. Most Democrats haven't gotten out of bed yet.

[Bill Tozer]

Buck Sexton
@BuckSexton

Whether Trump wins or loses, he will have mortally wounded the make believe “unbiased news media” lie- and that alone will make America a better place going forward

Also, Trump is gonna win

https://mobile.twitter.com/BuckSexton/status/1323443390571229184?

[Bill Tozer]

Larry Elder speaks:

"My prediction? I’ll be drunk by midnight"

#Trump2020 #WeveGotACountryToSave

[Don Bessee]

The big MO matters -

The biggest collapse of support for the 77-year-old was in Iowa, where as recently as Friday he was ahead according to RealClearPolitics’ average by 1.2 per cent.

Mr Trump now leads Iowa by 2 per cent of the vote; Georgia by 1 per cent; North Carolina by 0.2 per cent; and Ohio by 1.4 per cent.

Mr Biden previously led polling in all four states, but saw his advantage dwindle in recent days

https://currently.att.yahoo.com/att/cm/biden-lead-vanishes-four-swing-181729705.html

;-)

[Walt]

WOW!! some LIB state gets to count ballots all the way to FRIDAY!
What a Proggy scam. I can't wait to see the 150% turnout.

[George Rebane]

re Pelline - he started out acceptably on this comment stream, but now I see the usual snark leaking back in. I'm still waiting for him to contribute to the issue being discussed. Hope against hope says that he's able to do that. But if not, it's easy enough to blow away his thread. Don't egg him on; let's all stand by for the first Pelline proposition that can be debated.

[Bill Tozer]

WHILE YOU’RE WAITING FOR ELECTION RETURNS…
President Trump tweeted this get-out-the-vote video this morning. It is him dancing, to the tune of YMCA. I love it: just the thing to put you in a positive mood if, like me, you are feeling tense about today’s election:

https://www.powerlineblog.com/archives/2020/11/while-youre-waiting-for-election-returns.php

[Walt]

Biden wins Ca.,, yet Hollywood will still burn.
https://www.foxnews.com/us/beverly-hills-rodeo-drive-4-8m-election-preparedness-armed-private-security-guards

Black lies Matter and ANTIFA don't care who you vote for.
They got looting to do.

[Scott O]

Think I'll do what I have done for the last several elections - read a book, go to bed at the usual time and wake up and make some coffee in the morning.
I'm sure if anything happens in the meantime, there be a video or something.

[Walt]

See Jeffy? The dead still vote Dem.
https://www.breitbart.com/politics/2020/11/03/nolte-dead-caught-voting-democrat-run-new-york-city/
"“Ballots have been mailed in to the New York City Board of Elections in the name of dead voters,” reports the New York Post.

Frances Reckhow, who was born in 1915, would be 105 today, and died in 2012, requested a mail-in ballot, filled it out, and returned it.
Gertrude Nizzere, who was born in 1919, would be 101 today, and died in 2016, requested an absentee ballot, filled it out, and returned it.

These are just the ones that have been found.

Yup,, you Proggycrats sure know how to "dig up" the votes.

Get your cat to send in a ballot?

[Bill Tozer]

Walt @ 12:23pm sez:

"Black lies Matter and ANTIFA don't care who you vote for.
They got looting to do."
-----
'Plywood over polls: What all of that Big City panic reveals'

http://www.jewishworldreview.com/1120/lowry1103020.php3

[Don Bessee]

Another historically accurate indicator -

Stock market history suggests President Trump will prove the polls wrong and secure four more years in the White House.

The benchmark S&P 500, which has predicted the winner of 87% of all presidential elections and every one since 1984, added 1.2% from July 31 through Monday.

Typically, a gain in the three months leading up to the election has signaled a victory for the incumbent party while a loss signaled a transfer of power.

https://www.foxbusiness.com/markets/stock-market-trump-defeat-biden

;-)

[Walt]

Any bets Biden declares victory right out of the box?
Or maybe after the first member of the Proggy press says
Joementia is the "presumed" winner? (even if he's WAYYYyyyyy behind)
It's not about being right anymore. Just whatever it takes to stir the pot and cause pandamonium.

[Barry Pruett]

Big huge lines in Reno today. I sent George pics. Reed High School had 200 yard line at 730a. Polls opened at 700a. Great Election Day turnout. 🇺🇸🇺🇸

[Gregory]

I'm looking forward to the Florida results... if it's a big Trump win, the shy Trump voter effect will be proven. If not...

[Barry Pruett]

I have a friend with the Trump campaign in Miami. She said that it is like a party down there for Trump. Lots of enthusiasm. We’ll see in a few hours if that translates to votes 🇺🇸

[Gregory]

I don't see any action on Pellini's blog... and based on the disappeared comments, he went too far here.

I'm off to Oakdale next to Modesto, they've a sale on 100 octane leaded superpremium gasoline. The good stuff. $3.40 a gallon.

[Don Bessee]

Tuning up for election night? -

https://www.breitbart.com/law-and-order/2020/11/03/watch-cops-stop-antifa-from-setting-fire-to-portland-residential-building/

;-)

[scenes]

Walt: "Any bets Biden declares victory right out of the box?"

Hard to say what he'll declare.

'Joe Biden introduces his granddaughter by saying, "This is my son, Beau Biden." ... "This is my granddaughter, Natalie. No wait, no wait. We got the wrong one..."'

https://twitter.com/Breaking911/status/1323725227487100928

[Don Bessee]

Sounds like they know its not going their way -

https://www.breitbart.com/2020-election/2020/11/03/biden-campaign-asserts-it-can-win-without-pennsylvania-florida/

https://www.breitbart.com/politics/2020/11/03/joe-biden-largely-ignored-arizona-in-closing-stretch-of-the-election/

;-)

[Don Bessee]

Even the amish are getting into the act -

https://www.breitbart.com/2020-election/2020/11/03/amish-horse-buggy-trump-train-goes-viral-election-day/

;-)

[Don Bessee]

Creepy grampa joe's secret weapon? -

https://www.thedailybeast.com/meet-the-witches-who-are-hexing-trumps-re-election

;-)

[Bill Tozer]

Well, I went out and voted. Us procrastinates always wait til the last minute and nobody can declare victory until my vote is counted in a week or two. Per usual, I had it hand post marked by a local Postmaster at a out of county town. Now, before anyone shouts this blue pimple is a blue county, you gotta wait for my ballot to be counted and certified. Gotta know how to hurt the nervous nellies.

Remember the Fl panhandle is in a different time zone and a big red pimple. You can see it from space!

[Don Bessee]

And this is positive for whom? -

https://www.breitbart.com/2020-election/2020/11/03/economy-is-by-far-americas-top-issue-cnn-exit-poll-shows/

;-)

[Walt]

Air Gregory? Pick me up some 165 grain 308 projectiles.
I just got the last pound of powder in the county.
Even Bass Pro Shop has been cleaned out of reloading goods.

[Bill Tozer]

Ten bucks says Biden accidentally votes for Trump.

Quotes:

Upright: “People get on rafts to get away from socialism. People risk being eaten by sharks to get away from socialism. People leave behind their homes, their families, their loved ones, their entire lives to get away from socialism. We are not going to bring to this country the things that people flee! Now, I know what they’re gonna say. ‘Not all Democrats are socialists.’ And it’s true: Not all Democrats are socialists. But all socialists are Democrats!” —Senator Marco Rubio

Re: The Left: “I cannot understand people who say that minorities should be represented everywhere and yet are upset when there are blacks represented in the conservative movement.” —Thomas Sowell

The bottom line: “The Christian voter’s choice … is not between one man of bad character, Trump, and another of bad policy, Biden. It is a choice between a man with poor character and another man with both poor character and deadly policies.” —Kylee Zempel

A forewarning: “As president, I’ll ban assault weapons and high-capacity magazines, implement universal background checks, and enact other common-sense reforms to end our gun violence epidemic.” —Joe Biden

Non sequitur: “I promise you this: I’ll end Donald Trump’s chaos and end this crisis.” —Joe Biden (“Trump’s chaos? Last I checked, businesses weren’t boarding up their windows because they were afraid of Trump supporters.” —Dan Crenshaw)

Grand delusions: “Under no scenario will Donald Trump be declared a victor on election night.” —Biden campaign manager Jen O'Malley Dillon

Giving away the game: “If all the votes are added up in PA, Trump is going to lose.” —Pennsylvania Attorney General Josh Shapiro, who’s tasked with enforcing state election law

Dezinformatsiya: “I never thought I would see so many buildings here in the nation’s capital boarded-up on the eve of a presidential election in anticipation of possible unrest. And it’s not just in DC. It’s happening in New York, Los Angeles and elsewhere around the country. So sad!” —Wolf Blitzer (“What do Los Angeles, New York and Washington, DC, have in common? There are very few Trump voters there.” —Gary Bauer)

Alpha jackass: “Donald Trump is not an Adolf Hitler. At least Hitler improved the daily life of his followers, had discipline, and required more of himself to gain the respect of his followers. … A refusal to make comparisons has been a problem, when they have such similarities. Donald Trump’s death count is higher than Hitler’s at the same period.” —Yale University professor Bandy X. Lee

And last… “Trump supporters wave American flags; Biden supporters burn American flags. That’s the choice.” —Michael Knowles

[Don Bessee]

Getting ready to rumble?? -

https://www.breitbart.com/2020-election/2020/11/03/left-wing-protesters-near-white-house-unfurl-remove-trump-banner-on-election-night/

;-)

[Don Bessee]

https://www.mediaite.com/election-2020/nate-silver-says-trump-win-in-florida-triples-chances-to-win-presidency-first-step-toward-a-trump-upset/

;-)

[Don Bessee]

x

[The Estonian Fox]

From one medium-sized precinct in Western PA, heavy on Trump, but I never guessed quite this heavy. 2098 voters on the rolls. In-person vote 997 Trump; 202 Biden, out of 1211 in-person voters. Plus another 650 mail-ins, which won't be counted for several days. I figured maybe 3:1 Trump, not 5:1. 88% voter participation, 10% higher than any of the Pres. elections from 2008, when I started helping at the polls.

253,861 voters in the whole county, with 76,431 mail-ins requested. 58,388 returned (both as of Nov 2.) Repub voters have edge of about 15% over Dems in the county.

[Walt]

Don.. You tried posting info from the likes of the SAC Bee.
Some places hate it when you share.

[Don Bessee]

No it was this - Its already beginning

https://www.the-sun.com/news/1738968/dc-cops-clash-with-blm-and-antifa-protesters-outside-white-house/

[Don Bessee]

Byby Donna -

https://www.breitbart.com/politics/2020/11/03/republican-maria-elvira-salazar-defeats-democrat-incumbent-rep-donna-shalala-in-miami/

;-)

[Don Bessee]

Now thats interesting -

Election betting odds have flipped to favor Trump, expert says
'He hasn't won yet, but it's looking like he might,' Maxim Lott said

Lott said betting odds on his site this morning, which are averaged from other gambling websites, had Trump as just a 38% favorite to win the election. As of 11 p.m., Trump is more than a 70% favorite. Democratic presdiential candidate Joe Biden currently stands at just under 30%.

"I was surprised though to see it flip so quickly," he added.

https://www.foxnews.com/politics/betting-odds-have-flipped-to-favor-trump-expert-says

;-)

[Gregory]

If (IF) Biden wins, he will have a GOP Senate under control of McConnell.

Biden's legislative agenda would be DOA. No SCOTUS packing. No Green New Deal.

And any SCOTUS openings would be iffy.

[Larry Wirth]

Media is doing and saying anything to avoid announcing the day's outcome- maybe they think the fascists will hold off rioting until tomorrow night?

Paul, the polls weren't wrong, they lied, and you aren't smart enough to figure out why...

[Walt]

Somebitch... We picked up a Senate seat.

[Walt]

Alabama flipped
R Tommy Tuberville 1,297,724 62.71%

[Don Bessee]

OH MY! Anticipating a loss? -

https://www.breitbart.com/law-and-order/2020/11/03/watch-fight-breaks-out-in-blm-park-in-dc/

https://www.breitbart.com/law-and-order/2020/11/03/watch-dc-protester-says-she-will-wipe-bloody-pssy-with-bible/

;-)

[Don Bessee]

Tru dat -

https://www.breitbart.com/2020-election/2020/11/03/report-top-miami-democrat-defund-the-police-killed-us-we-got-obliterated-hispanics-florida/

[crispy creem]

Nevada County = BLUE County

Democratic domination once again

..case closed..

now Gregory Goodknight can stop arguing.

[L]

CNN is showing a complete electoral map that shows Trump has won by a wide margin, but moving back and forward in time to avoid posting a conclusion; Fox, refusing to put Tx and Ga and NC in the W column and not calling WI, MI and PA for Trump creates a false illusion of suspense...

What fun!

[Gregory]

crispy creamed making a mess on aisle 11.

No, there's still purple here.

[Don Bessee]

Are we having fun yet?

;-)

[Don Bessee]

As expected -

https://www.foxnews.com/us/unrest-in-some-us-cities-as-election-results-come-in

;-)

[Gregory]

Here's some entertainment:
https://amgreatness.com/2020/11/02/the-democrats-grand-delusion/

[Don Bessee]

Looks like they think they lost -

https://www.foxnews.com/us/unrest-in-some-us-cities-as-election-results-come-in

;-)

[Gregory]

They did lose, bigly. Biden was up by 11%, by the USC Daybreak poll. In fact, by most it was a virtual fait accompli.

It might not be over for a few days but Kamala`s Presidential futures are cloudy at best. Thank Zarquon!

[scenes]

I haven't looked yet, but it must be going well for Democrats.

The celebrations have already started.

"The leader of the far-right Proud Boys has said he was one of four people stabbed after being “jumped by Black Lives Matter” mob early Wednesday in Washington, DC.

Enrique Tarrio told The Gateway Pundit that he was slashed in the stomach, while “multiple other members” were injured, including a man stabbed in the neck and a woman with them stabbed in the back.

The group said they were heading home after watching the election at a DC bar when they were jumped and knifed.

Livestreamed video caught part of the scuffle — with one man walking back to the videographer and saying, “I’m bleeding.”

After the attackers fled, Bevelyn Beatty — a black woman who previously dumped paint over the Black Lives Matter mural outside Trump Tower — was seen holding her lower back, saying, “They stabbed me.”"

https://nypost.com/2020/11/04/proud-boys-leader-stabbed-after-being-jumped-by-blm-in-dc/

[scenes]

One thing I love about the 2020 election is the magic talisman of the 'Biden sign'.

'Don't burn down my house, burn down my neighbor's house.'

""Asking for people to be peaceful is white supremacy"

On election night in Portland, hundreds of protesters shut down the streets of SE Portland. They confronted Portlanders at their homes, including a family with a "Biden Harris" sign."

https://twitter.com/MrAndyNgo/status/1323984227008868353

In Paul Emery's Nevada County, it might be a smart move to change party affiliation from 'Republican' to 'Independent' as the voter rolls are public. The sign out front might not be enough.

[scenes]

as one clever respondent to the Andy Ngo tweet asked:

"Sheep's blood not working?"

[Bill Tozer]

Gregory @ 11:32 pm

“Here's some entertainment:”. Thank you, thank you, thank you. Good way to pass the time, you Russian bot, you. Unfortunately, I am unable to read the Union comments anymore because it saddens me too much to see such gross ignorance smugly passed on as fact. Unwarranted arrogance coupled with complete ignorance.

Your link, Gregory, reminded me too much of the Union comments, comments me weary heart cannot suffer to read for the pass few weeks. The Lamestream media and certain commentators on the Union are synonymous.

Despite all the above, your link is worth a required reading and helped pass the time. Thank you.

all the above

[Bill Tozer]

More time passing entertainment as we wait for the Georgia results. A 1977 classic, IMHO

https://www.dailymotion.com/video/x2p86y5

[Walt]

Do the LIBS have anything to say?
"America is over"
https://www.foxnews.com/us/minneapolis-protesters-arrests

This what you have had in mind?

[D]

The Vote Suppressor in Chief doing what he can to 'rock' the vote,

"With millions of votes yet to be counted, President Trump falsely asserted election fraud, pledged to mount a legal challenge to official state results and made a premature claim of victory in a bitterly contested race that may take days to resolve. In remarks at the White House early Wednesday, Trump claimed that he won several states that are still counting ballots, including Georgia, North Carolina and Pennsylvania."

[Walt]

Vote counting shut down to spirit in all those needed Biden votes.

Cheat by mail alive and well? The dead sure like it.

[scenes]

D@7:59AM

1) I assume there's a source. Let's say 'Washington Post'.
2) Of course there's election fraud, the question is how much and where.

Bummer that newspapers simply don't report the news. ie. 'President Trump asserted election fraud' is a statement of fact. At this point, 'falsely' is purest opinion. Of course, I expect nothing less from the DNC's Pravda.

I just naturally assume that there's widespread election fraud in densely populated areas with machine politics, it's a natural side effect of the political environment. That is an opinion, but then I don't write newspaper 'news' stories.

[Barry Pruett]

George. Please advise.

https://www.foxnews.com/politics/are-risk-limiting-audits-the-golden-ticket-to-preventing-a-draconian-election-recount

Can we mathematically audit elections automatically?

[Bill Tozer]

D
While the Big Prize is uncertain at the moment, I am left with some questions.

How could the pollsters be soooo wrong again? Have they learned nothing? A: Yes, they have learned nothing. It was supposed to be a Biden walk. Those who suggested otherwise were ridiculed...again.

How could it be that the R’s gained seats in the House?

How could it be that the Dems did not take the Senate?

While there is no 2nd place in politics, so far it seems like a 2nd Best scenario.

How could the Dems lose Florida? Bloomberg dumped a 100 million into Florida out of his own pocket. Wasted money. Think of all the families he could have fed with 100 million clamshells.

How could the Dem’s lose Florida after Punchy was so gleeful after Hurricane Maria sent tens of thousands of Dem voting Puerto Ricans to Florida, thus turning the state blue? I don’t get it.

What happened to Trump being wiped out? At the moment it appears out of a country of 360 people, only a mere 100,000 votes separates victory from defeat in all the swing states combined.

Such is life. You live by the polls, you die by the polls.

How could Moscow Mitch and Lyndsey Graham retain their seats after 26 million was dumped into each race to defeat them. Think of how many mouths 52 plus million could have fed.

[scenes]

"Can we mathematically audit elections automatically?"

You can audit anything by sampling. The problem is that the sampling size has to increase the tighter the race (ie. when it actually matters in terms of winner-takes-all elections).

Perhaps we could up the criminal penalty for cheating the closer a race is.

Dunno that it matters. Team Blue's street army has it's own ways of voting.

https://twitter.com/MrAndyNgo/status/1323967415194017801

[fish]

Posted by: D | 04 November 2020 at 07:59 AM

The Vote Suppressor in Chief doing what he can to 'rock' the vote,

More whining from from the Urine Soaked Command Chair™ at Decision Desk2020……c'mon (D)ugsKKKi…surprised at you….! Democrat machines are highly skilled at producing as many votes as required to get what they want! Been doing it for years!

….and you call yourself a Democrat! A Real democrat would know the fix is already in and have the good sense to keep his mouth shut.

[Walt]

Since the local poll dancer is nowhere to be found I guess Emery is on his way to Oregon. Shrooms now legal.
And small amounts of blow? Your good to go.

[Bill Tozer]

IDENTITY POLITICS HITS THE WALL

https://www.powerlineblog.com/archives/2020/11/identity-politics-hits-the-wall.php
———————————-

“PROP 16 SEEMS TO BE FAILING
Prop 16 is the left’s attempt to repeal California’s ban on racial and other forms of discrimination by the State. Prop 16 is losing.

With about 20 percent of the vote in, “No” was leading “Yes” by eight points 54-46. I’m told by a leading opponent of Prop 16 that “No” is doing better than expected in each of the major counties.

Based on the vote nationwide in the presidential election, Steve has declared that identity politics hit the wall in this election. If Prop 16 fails, that will certainly be true in California.”—Powerline Blog

[scenes]

re: Oregon and drugs.

It should be an interesting experiment and a good example of why states make sense. Odds are that the larger towns there will become even more unlivable, but it'll be exciting to watch.

You still end up with the clunkiness of legal hard drugs but illegal sales of hard drugs (along with federal law). Something that's legal to buy but illegal to sell never makes sense.

At least Hunter Biden has found a wondrous new place to live.

[scenes]

re: Identity politics.

The Great Political Question of the modern day.

Will the Left back off from burning down cities, tearing down statues, required Critical Race Theory in jobs and schools, a world of affirmative action and get back to health policy and tax law?

Currently they seem darned intent on producing a USA with the politics of a prison exercise yard but maybe they'll lose interest.

In the meantime they'll continue building an unassailable moat of a Left-run surveillance bureaucracy and economy, but this election wasn't really about that problem.

[Bill Tozer]

Correction to moi 8:43 am

I was much too conservative. 240 million was spent to defeat Cocaine Mitch and John McCain’s best buddy, one Lyndsey Graham. 240 million down the drain and into the Swamp.

Mea Culpa and pass the greens and shotgun shells.

[Bill Tozer]

Real Clear Politics did not have Senator Susan Collins up in one single poll all year long. Go figure.

[fish]

Posted by: Walt | 04 November 2020 at 08:51 AM

Since the local poll dancer is nowhere to be found I guess Emery is on his way to Oregon. Shrooms now legal.
And small amounts of blow? Your good to go.

Go easy Walt…..he's had a frantically busy last four years clutching his pearls and ginning up conspiracy theories. He probably needs a little sumpin sumpin to take the edge off this morning.

[George Rebane]

BarryP 818am - A population ratio estimated from a random sample can be compared to a reported ratio, and therefore used as an audit of the report by applying all the usual statistical tests for significance. What makes it difficult for auditing elections, such as the one we're going through now, is that there is no stable process in place for counting and reporting votes cast. The counting processes (especially with staggered validity intervals for mail-in votes) vary all across the nation. To attempt an audit by multiple samples of such a chaotic zoo is nigh impossible. One can be rigged up, and its verity heralded, but that would just be a propagandized bamboozle to fool the lightly read. As an added problem, for any given confidence interval bounding actual population ratios near the 50-50 point, the sample size has to be huge - the smaller the desired confidence interval, to provided a tighter audit, the bigger the sample size. You can see that by looking at the so-called 'banana curves' of errors for sampled ratios. As an example, near the 50-50 ratio to get your 95% confidence interval down to +/-0.01, you would need a sample size of approx 10K.

[scenes]

re: Susan Collins

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-election-forecast/senate/maine/

Mr. Paul's Pollmania aside, everyone should just quit paying attention to any of these polling-based predictions. Somewhere (not doubt *many* somewheres) there are real-deal data science guys with access to truly large datasets that could do a much better job, it's just that you can't afford their reports.

I have a funny feeling that political predictions will end up being made illegal somehow over time as the quality will improve once the pollsters are gone, it'll go underground.

[L]

Looking in on CNN at 10 last night, they had conceded TX, GA, FL, NC, PA, MI, WI, IA to Trump, making the outcome obvious and the studio filled with long faces. By pre-agreement, no one would call a winner...

Their short summary was that AZ was the only state that changed hands since 2016, giving T 295ev.

This morning? Dead vote still coming in?

[L]

Repeating a lost comment from last night-

Paul, the polls weren't wrong, they were LYING and you're not smart enough to figure out why.

[Walt]

Come on out Emery,, It's excuse time... Like "I" predicted.
Sending out the 420TH Nevada City cricket division?

[Bill Tozer]

"Come on out Emery,,"

Punchy positioned himself nicely for months. All he did was post links to polls and he didn't write them or comment much but to say, 'Trumpf is down by 18 in Wisconsin. Why do you think that is, Don?
Remember, Trump has a 11% of winning and he must win all the swing states and flip a couple of DEM states...and still be short 1. More updates to come."

Guess whatever (forbidden to speak of) wager he had with the doc in the house, looks like it won't be settled for a few days.

Punchy is like a bookie. Always wins no matter how the horse came it. He positioned himself into the saving grace of Within The Margin Of Error, win or lose. Guess that means we are all winners cause we are all within the margin of error.

[Gregory]

The problem with polls is the way they've been misused by people like Punchy. Just another weapon against people they want to make go away. A vote supressor; not a reliable indicator of public opinion. If thye can make it seem you're losing when you're winning, they can steer public opinion, steer elections.

[paul emery]

Nevada County solid blue Gregory. Dems are romping in doube figures n all elections

So far:

Presidential
Biden up by 21
Biden 17,861 59.36%
Trump 11,697 38.88%

House District 1
Audrey Denny
14,429 56.81%
La Malfa
10,969 43.19%

House District 4
BRYNNE S. KENNEDY
3,572 76.95%
Tom McClintock

Senate District 1
PAMELA DAWN SWARTZ
16,663 55.88%
BRIAN DAHLE
13,154 44.12%

Assembly District 1
ELIZABETH L BETANCOURT
17,280 58.05%
MEGAN DAHLE
12,489 41.95%

[Gregory]

Punch. Patience. Wax on, wax off.

[fish]

This is good……now Punchy will have time to rebuild the California Republican Party.

[paul emery]

Those ARE the numbers as of now Gregory. Not a poll. Nevada County solid blue. It also reflects in the NID race which as of now has the two Dem supported candidates in the lead.

Here's a link for your conveniance:

https://www.mynevadacounty.com/DocumentCenter/View/36385/Third-Report-Cumulative-Results-11-3-2020

[Gregory]

Those numbers don't include my ballot, Punch. My ballot was turned in yesterday morning, and was accepted into the system this morning. Not counted yet.

Patience, Grasshopper.

[scenes]

paul emery: "Nevada County solid blue."

You can make that case.

That's why I'm guessing it'll be like this at some point, even for people with the magic 'Biden' posters out front.

https://twitter.com/MrAndyNgo/status/1323984227008868353

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9l-gSXfgrpw (same video, different streaming site)

Folks, this is the world Paul and his people want to bring you. Take note.

It won't matter how much you agree with them, apologize to them, give them what they want. It's never enough.

[Gregory]

Here's the Find My Ballot button...
https://www.sos.ca.gov/elections/election-2020/

[scenes]

Gregory: "The problem with polls is the way they've been misused by people like Punchy. "

That's because 'news craft' isn't news, it's just more propaganda. Polls are propaganda. Actively managed social media is propaganda. Paul and his posts are just a teeny tiny version of Jack Dorsey.

Really, it's all our own fault. Both local radio and Facebook have goals, and you're part of them.

[Walt]

Well well... Enough ballots magically show up to put Biden ahead? After being WAYYY behind? Naaaa... No Proggy monkeyshines..

[Walt]

Repub poll watchers not allowed to watch the count?
You LIBS have something to hide.

[fish]

See (D)ugsKKKi……told ya……!

Voter Fraud in Wisconsin – Massive Dump of Over 100,000 Ballots for Biden All the Sudden Appear Overnight

Who says Democrats aren't into "manufacturing?! Right now the little Keebler Elves of democrat Wisconsin are busily hammering away making brand new completed ballots for ….."you know…the thing" guy!

https://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2020/11/voter-fraud-wisconsin-massive-dump-100000-ballots-biden-sudden-appear-overnight/

[Bill Tozer]

@ 1:56 pm.

Would that make Biden an illegitimate President? Could be, could be. Boy, they are the masters of projection. The Republicans are going to steal the election!!

Following the law is now voter suppression.

[Don Bessee]

IF its good for them it would be bad for us -

https://www.breitbart.com/national-security/2020/11/04/iran-biden-more-promising-us-trump/

;-)

[scenes]

A tweet I have to agree with.

"Counterpoint: Polls should die in a fire and we should let people make up their own minds rather than let them succumb to bandwagoning and elite journalism's preferred narratives."

https://twitter.com/Heminator/status/1324024758611136512

[D]

Posted by: fish | 04 November 2020 at 01:56 PM Wow! fish! Massive conspiracy. Good thing you were sitting right there in Wisconsin and knew where all the ballots were and how many there were and whose ballots those were and that they were all filled in by Antifa. Great detective work.
How about that Hunter Biden?

[scenes]

From George's OP: "Fox News election reporting is a puzzle."

Probably not so much if you view the warring parties as coalitions.

I think there's way way too much work done out there analyzing Republicans/Democrats (or name yer poison like liberal/conservative) as distinct groups when they are really formed of subgroups. Look how quickly Democrats became the party of the intelligence agencies and large business while Republicans grew in importance to the working class. No magic, just a new alliance.

The upshot. Fox News doesn't have my interests in mind, it has it's own. Occasionally they coincide.

[Don Bessee]

Yup -

https://thehill.com/opinion/campaign/524421-too-close-to-call-polling-at-all-levels-takes-a-beating

;-)

[D]

Fish, as we know Wisconsin has been a red state since 2011 until a Dem governor was elected two years ago. The Republican cheeseheads are obviously so mentally compromised they could not figure out how to run mail-in elections and screwed up the primary election also.
Then add that to USPS buffoon DeJoy and you have all kinds of fun.