‘2034’

George Rebane

This is a heads-up on a good read – 2034 – A Novel of the Next World War that will be published in early March.  It is written by two military and national security heavyweights – Elliot Ackerman and Adm James Stavridis, both ranking high in our national security apparatus; Ackerman in the White House and Stavridis former CIC of our Southern Command and then head of NATO military.  The first part of the novel took up the entire Jan 2021 issue of Wired.  I started reading it, and it immediately grabbed me.  I’m a kinda finicky reader, especially fiction, reserving time only for geo-political and edge sci-fi written by people who’ve 'been there and done that' – ‘2034’ definitely qualifies and promises to also be an education on a lot of systems and tactics.  Anyway, I thought that you would find this a good and timely read.  Here’s some promotional copy – “From two former military officers and award-winning authors, a chillingly authentic, geopolitical thriller that imagines a naval clash between the US and China in the South China Sea in 2034--and the path from there to a nightmarish global conflagration.”

I sent the above notice to a group of friends who may be interested in geo-political thrillers with technical element that is written by knowledgeable authors.  Since then, the book has received some very good reviews from noteworthy people.  (more here and here)

“War with China is the most dangerous scenario facing us and the world. Absent a strategic method to manage our differences, Jim Stavridis and Elliot Ackerman’s chilling novel presents a realistic series of miscalculations leading to the worst consequences. A sobering, cautionary tale for our time.” — Jim Mattis, General, U.S. Marines (Ret.) and 26th Secretary of Defense

“A real page-turner, 2034 is a novel about a conflict we hope never happens. Drawing on their deep operational and diplomatic backgrounds, Admiral Stavridis and Elliot Ackerman have conjured a nightmare we desperately need to avoid. The novel is a cautionary tale for our times, and a reminder how quickly events can spin out of control—even before 2034.” — Robert M. Gates, Secretary of Defense 2006-2011

Comments

[RXCross]

Any future world war scenario is pure fiction. The global economies are now so entwined that no leader of any country capable of starting and/or finishing such an endeavor would have to be crazy and stupid (Donald Trump comes to mind) to even consider engaging in such. Why would China want to start a war with their biggest customer? It just doesn't make any sense. But it makes an entertaining story. A person I know used to have a job high up (as in situation room high up) in the defense dep't., they say the people in that room are some of the most paranoid creatures on Earth and live in constant fear without any real reasons behind it. Military spending depends on scare tactics to secure funding when the money would be much better off spent elsewhere. Think of what the world would be like if the trillions and trillions spent on missiles, etc. would have been spent on education, health care, public infrastructure or other things that benefit the people rather than defense contractors, regardless of what country we are talking about.

[Barry Pruett]

Heard that argument before 100 years ago...

http://blogs.reuters.com/anatole-kaletsky/2014/06/27/world-war-one-first-war-was-impossible-then-inevitable/

[George Rebane]

RX 1210pm - I do believe the book's topic and the motivation for it completely escapes you. "Any future world war scenario is pure fiction." may actually be the most sophomoric remark made in these pages, especially if it serves to launch a critique of the novel.

[scenes]

RCross: "Military spending depends on scare tactics to secure funding when the money would be much better off spent elsewhere."

Bummer that the War Party got back in the seat of power. Oh well, you've got to crack a few eggs to make an omelette. Accusing Donald Trump of being a potential cause (which only took the second sentence) is one of the purest cases of transference I've seen. In any case, you're better off sticking to the sandbox, it suits you.

...anyway, crazy trolls like one Ms. Cross aside....

The intertwined economy argument isn't a good one, I can think of multiple cases of strong trading partners getting into a shooting war, it's strategic nuclear weapons that sort of locked down the map...assuming that there isn't simply a command and control problem (see: Petrov, Stanislav).

Given resource depletion, population pressure, and (most importantly) the tendency for populations to swing in mood due to organic or directed pressure from the internet, you can definitely see a ratchet up in proxy wars. The Harris administration is bound to restock the Middle East and Afghanistan with fresh meat for the grinder, the Chinese in Africa, the Russians try to rebuild their defensible perimeter, the magic of diversity fires off uncivil wars throughout the Western world, you can definitely see the opportunities for friction.

Next level up. Truly serious trade or financial wars as the mistake of single-sourcing Asia hits home for the West and it becomes leveraged for political pressure. The most nationalistic folks in the world, the Chinese, decide to (re)take Taiwan, will the US go to war on that one? The Chinese are bound to put together a serious navy at some point in the interest of self-preservation.

A lot of it depends on the definition of a World War, it ain't necessarily set-piece tank advances through the Fulda Gap, and you can certainly argue that the Cold War was a form of World War (as was France v. England in the 18th and early 19th C.). Was COVID an act of war? Will there be large scale computer network wars?

Now that I think of it, I'd say that the opportunities for large scale conflict have increased over time. Too many people. Moats between powers have shrunk. New technology gets weaponized. (and most important) Mass movements are more easily grown. The real change in the scale of military actions came with France and their ability to mobilize the masses, it's largely a kind of mind virus and the internet has accelerated virus spread.

[fish]

Posted by: scenes | 26 January 2021 at 08:05 AM

Bummer that the War Party got back in the seat of power. Oh well, you've got to crack a few eggs to make an omelette. Accusing Donald Trump of being a potential cause (which only took the second sentence) is one of the purest cases of transference I've seen. In any case, you're better off sticking to the sandbox, it suits you.

...anyway, crazy trolls like one Ms. Cross aside....

Roberta frequents here because her husband just can't be bothered to pay attention to her constant complaining anymore. I guess that must mean she's alienated all her girl friends as well.

Sad!

[RXCross]

George: I am not critiquing the novel, just pointing out how sad and stupid war is.. speaking of sad and stupid = fish

[RXCross]

Barry --Your comparison comes from 100 years ago. The propensity to end a life on Earth due to nuclear holocaust did not exist at that time. The world was not intertwined economically like is it today, not to mention that most of the monarchies responsible for WWI, and monarchies in general, no longer exist. Humanity has evolved over that time (trump supporters excepted). Sane people recognize the utter insanity of war. You are comparing apples to dog food.

[fish]

Posted by: RXCross | 26 January 2021 at 10:12 AM

.. speaking of sad and stupid = fish

It's OK baby....I'm not married to you!

[Barry Pruett]

Such pronouncements fail to account for the inherent irrationality of man. If Putin found an opening, there is little doubt that he would exploit it. You are naive Mr. Cross

[scenes]

Ms. Cross sez:

"The world was not intertwined economically like is it today, not to mention that most of the monarchies responsible for WWI, and monarchies in general, no longer exist. "

Intertwined doesn't matter. The Venetian Republic had a war (well, more than one) with the Ottoman Empire after centuries of doing business at as high an intensity as the US and China. Monarchies don't matter. Truly large wars got invented when popular movements took over government and could generate high enlistment rates. The concept of monarchy didn't cause WWI for more reasons than I can list. I'd suggest 'A History of Warfare' (Keegan) as an overview.

"Sane people recognize the utter insanity of war." They do until they don't.

Consider your own religion of CRT (Corporate Race Theory). How much of it is based on extensive experience? How much on domain knowledge? How much on reading incendiary social media posts? I don't expect people to have much in the way of introspection, but a journey of a thousand miles and all that.

[scenes]

" If Putin found an opening, there is little doubt that he would exploit it. "

From where I sit, Putin merely acts in a self-interested fashion. Staying in power of course is the Prime Directive (as usual), but I'm simply not seeing any advantage to territorial gains at this point. There *are* historically Slav/Cyrillic/Orthodox countries that the hive mind there wants to re-absorb, but I'd say that the main drive is to provide buffer states...a thing that the US and NATO rudely took away given a chance (and against agreement).

In terms of the softer power of money, mass media, internet, etc., everybody exploits everybody. Putin doesn't hold a candle to the Israelis or the UK in terms of that sort of thing. Generally, I'd say that the US messes with Russian internal politics far more than the inverse, simply due to a combination of resources and a stronger need to proselytize.

Just an opinion of course, it isn't like I get many chances to go hang with the Duma or FSB headquarters.

[fish]

Posted by: scenes | 26 January 2021 at 11:04 AM

Hey....if you're going to bring history, reason and measured thought to the discussion we can just end this now!

[Bill Tozer]

It appears that Roberta Flack is unaware of the Motto ‘Be Prepared’. Our Generals just don’t sit around waiting for something to break out somewhere and react like a man with a wooden leg hopping around with a fire extinguisher putting out fires. There is a big difference between react and respond.

From the likes of the Warrior Monk General Mathis to countless others, they spend hours upon hours reading history, geo-political trends, and international relations. I would argue they are more informed about the past, present, and future threats to our country than any run of the mill dudette in a think tank.

Years ago I read the fiction ‘The Crash of 1984’ and learned more about scenarios than anything available at the time. The crash never happened, but got a good insight to how we and our friends in the finance world operate.

At the same time, I read a pure fiction paperback about these unscrupulous lenders who would loan folks money to buy a house knowing they could not afford it. After a bit of time, they would foreclose on those unable to make the monthly mortgage....after receiving the down payment and up front fees, of course. Then they would seek out more folks without the means to afford the house and turn around and sell the foreclosed homes again to people who could not afford the monthly nut after getting the down payment and points in advance, The lenders would do this again and again, selling the same homes over and over again.
When the Great Recession hit, I thought of that paperback fiction (can’t recall the name of it) and how it applied to liars loans and lending solicitors doing cold calls offering to finance folks who could barely even afford their rent, telling them they qualify for not one but two houses to buy! How about a interest only loan for the down payment, buddy o buddy o pal. Pure fiction? Yes. Life imitates art? Yes.

Iran wants the Bomb, not to wipe Israel off the face of the map, but to wipe the USA off the face of the map. That is what those who spent their days and nights thinking about likely existential threats to the globe, peace, and our security. China is our number one threat and that is not fiction. China has moved from a mostly defensive military and hardware to an offensive military machine.
——
Bobbie Sue sez: “Think of what the world would be like if the trillions and trillions spent on missiles, etc. would have been spent on education, health care, public infrastructure or other things that benefit the people rather....”

Hate to break it to ya, Ms. “mother’s little helper” RX Crosstops, but we have spent millions upon millions upon billions on education and our public education has turned into one big bottomless pit of a cesspool. A true verified Shithole. In fact, since 1970 using inflation adjusted dollars, the more money spent on education has resulted in dollar for dollar a steady decline in results—so much so that millions wonder if our system even teaches students anymore. The more money spent of education was been a colossal failure by any and every standard used and conceived. A disaster. The more money spent on education, the more our children are falling behind the rest of the world. And you want to throw more money at the problem to guarantee more failure? I think not.

If and when a hot war breaks out, you and all the Libs will be screaming, “Why weren’t we prepared?!?!” with the usual finger pointing as sure as night follows day. Blame, blame, blame and demand heads on a platter.

Replay, but it is timely...or timeless. From a pure fiction script, Hollywood style. (Remember that Condor was just a guy that read fiction.)

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9w3E3eFMsLg

[scenes]

"Hey....if you're going to bring history, reason and measured thought to the discussion we can just end this now!"

My bad. Here:

tRUmp SUx!!! lOL!!!

It seems to me that a more interesting future history of war could be concocted from present trends. On one side you have increasingly strong corporations taking over government (more like merging with a dominant role) combined with crazed internet mobs/consumers (BLM!, wHIte SuprEMISTS!!!, Q!) who are only partly controllable by our Lords 'n Masters.

Traditionalists just want to be left alone. Not allowed....

So how will Apple fight a war against Google/CIA + Huewai? There's no reason for that not to get kinetic since public opinions are so swayable and there's no reason for corps to not get larger and larger (just look at the strong tech reasons for full integration at Apple from SoC at the bottom to a surveillance system at the top...all in-house). You can see where one company gets the US Navy to do it's bidding somewhere in the South China Sea. Shades of William Gibson.

[fish]

Posted by: scenes | 26 January 2021 at 11:59 AM

My bad. Here:

tRUmp SUx!!! lOL!!!

Whew...much better! I also appreciate the Keachie style of capitalization at random! Nicely done!